The development of a naturalistic car following model for assessing managed motorway systems' safety effects

This thesis highlights the limitations of the existing car following models to emulate driver behaviour for safety study purposes. It also compares the capabilities of the mainstream car following models emulating driver behaviour precise parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison evaluates the robustness of each car following model for safety metric reproductions. A new car following model, based on the personal space concept and fish school model is proposed to simulate more precise traffic metrics. This new model is capable of reflecting changes in the headway distribution after imposing the speed limit form VSL systems. This research facilitates assessing Intelligent Transportation Systems on motorways, using microscopic simulation.

Safety enhancement of operator protection systems on self-propelled mining equipment

In the long term, with development of skill, knowledge, exposure and confidence within the engineering profession, rigorous analysis techniques have the potential to become a reliable and far more comprehensive method for design and verification of the structural adequacy of OPS, write Nimal J Perera, David P Thambiratnam and Brian Clark. This paper explores the potential to enhance operator safety of self-propelled mechanical plant subjected to roll over and impact of falling objects using the non-linear and dynamic response simulation capabilities of analytical processes to supplement quasi-static testing methods prescribed in International and Australian Codes of Practice for bolt on Operator Protection Systems (OPS) that are post fitted. The paper is based on research work carried out by the authors at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) over a period of three years by instrumentation of prototype tests, scale model tests in the laboratory and rigorous analysis using validated Finite Element (FE) Models. The FE codes used were ABAQUS for implicit analysis and LSDYNA for explicit analysis. The rigorous analysis and dynamic simulation technique described in the paper can be used to investigate the structural response due to accident scenarios such as multiple roll over, impact of multiple objects and combinations of such events and thereby enhance the safety and performance of Roll Over and Falling Object Protection Systems (ROPS and FOPS). The analytical techniques are based on sound engineering principles and well established practice for investigation of dynamic impact on all self propelled vehicles. They are used for many other similar applications where experimental techniques are not feasible.

Evaluation of emerging intelligent transport systems to improve safety on level crossings : an overview

Safety at railway level crossings (RLX) is one part of a wider picture of safety within the whole transport system. Governments, the rail industry and road organisations have used a variety of countermeasures for many years to improve RLX safety. New types of interventions are required in order to reduce the number of crashes and associated social costs at railway crossings. This paper presents the results of a large research program which aimed to assess the effectiveness of emerging Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) interventions, both on-road and in-vehicle based, to improve the safety of car drivers at RLXs in Australia. The three most promising technologies selected from the literature review and focus groups were tested in an advanced driving simulator to provide a detailed assessment of their effects on driver behaviour. The three interventions were: (i) in-vehicle visual warning using a GPS/smartphone navigation-like system, (ii) in-vehicle audio warning and; (iii) on-road intervention known as valet system (warning lights on the road surface activated as a train approaches). The effects of these technologies on 57 participants were assessed in a systematic approach focusing on the safety of the intervention, effects on the road traffic around the crossings and driver’s acceptance of the technology. Given that the ITS interventions were likely to provide a benefit by improving the driver’s awareness of the crossing status in low visibility conditions, such conditions were investigated through curves in the track before arriving at the crossing. ITS interventions were also expected to improve driver behaviour at crossings with high traffic (blocking back issue), which were also investigated at active crossings. The key findings are: (i) interventions at passive crossings are likely to provide safety benefits; (ii) the benefits of ITS interventions on driver behaviour at active crossings are limited; (iii) the trialled ITS interventions did not show any issues in terms of driver distraction, driver acceptance or traffic delays; (iv) these interventions are easy to use, do not increase driver workload substantially; (v) participants’ intention to use the technology is high and; (vi) participants saw most value in succinct messages about approaching trains as opposed to knowing the RLX locations or the imminence of a collision with a train.

Definition of an airworthiness certification framework for civil unmanned aircraft systems

The development of effective safety regulations for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is an issue of paramount concern for industry. The development of this framework is a prerequisite for greater UAS access to civil airspace and, subsequently, the continued growth of the UAS industry. The direct use of the existing conventionally piloted aircraft (CPA) airworthiness certification framework for the regulation of UAS has a number of limitations. The objective of this paper is to present one possible approach for the structuring of airworthiness regulations for civilian UAS. The proposed approach facilitates a more systematic, objective and justifiable method for managing the spectrum of risk associated with the diversity of UAS and their potential operations. A risk matrix is used to guide the development of an airworthiness certification matrix (ACM). The ACM provides a structured categorisation that facilitates the future tailoring of regulations proportionate to the levels of risk associated with the operation of the UAS. As a result, an objective and traceable link may be established between mandated regulations and the overarching objective for an equivalent level of safety to CPA. The ACM also facilitates the systematic consideration of a range of technical and operational mitigation strategies. For these reasons, the ACM is proposed as a suitable method for the structuring of an airworthiness certification framework for civil or commercially operated UAS (i.e., the UAS equivalent in function to the Part 21 regulations for civil CPA) and for the further structuring of requirements on the operation of UAS in un-segregated airspace.

Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

Causal factors of hot air ballooning incidents : identification, frequency, and potential impact

Background: Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare, however, when they do occur they are likely to result in a fatality or serious injury. Human error is commonly attributed as the cause of hot air ballooning incidents; however, error in itself is not an explanation for safety failures. This research aims to identify, and establish the relative importance of factors contributing towards hot air ballooning incidents. Methods: Twenty-two Australian Ballooning Federation (ABF) incident reports were thematically coded using a bottom up approach to identify causal factors. Subsequently, 69 balloonists (mean 19.51 years’ experience) participated in a survey to identify additional causal factors and rate (out of seven) the perceived frequency and potential impact to ballooning operations of each of the previously identified causal factors. Perceived associated risk was calculated by multiplying mean perceived frequency and impact ratings. Results: Incident report coding identified 54 causal factors within nine higher level areas: Attributes, Crew resource management, Equipment, Errors, Instructors, Organisational, Physical Environment, Regulatory body and Violations. Overall, ‘weather’, ‘inexperience’ and ‘poor/inappropriate decisions’ were rated as having greatest perceived associated risk. Discussion: Although errors were nominated as a prominent cause of hot air ballooning incidents, physical environment and personal attributes are also particularly important for safe hot air ballooning operations. In identifying a range of causal factors the areas of weakness surrounding ballooning operations have been defined; it is hoped that targeted safety and training strategies can now be put into place removing these contributing factors and reducing the chance of pilot error.

Incident reporting culture in recreational hot air ballooning

Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare; however, they have a high potential to be fatal. In order to inform appropriate safety interventions it is first necessary to understand the causal factors which lead to incidents and near-misses, which requires a formal incident report database. The Australian Balloon Federation (ABF) advocates the reporting of recreational hot air ballooning incidents, by reporting directly to the ABF safety officer or by completing an online incident report form. The objective of this paper is to understand how widely used the reporting system is and whether there are any perceived barriers to reporting. Sixty-nine balloonists participated in an online survey about their experience of incident reporting. Survey respondents were mostly male (11 female), experienced balloonists (mean years’ experience ballooning 19.51y with a SD 11.19). Sixty respondents (87%) held a pilot license. The majority (82.6%) of respondents were aware of the ABF incident reporting system. Over half (62.3%) had been involved in a ballooning incident or near-miss in Australia. However, 40% of those who had an incident or near-miss did not report it to the ABF and only 15.9% of all those surveyed had used the online incident report form. There was some disagreement regarding when it was appropriate to report an incident or near miss. Some respondents felt an incident or near miss should only be reported if it resulted in injury or damage, while others said near-misses should also be reported. The most frequent barriers identified were: a lack of understanding of when to report to the ABF; trivializing of incidents; and concerns about the system itself Steps should be taken to increase understanding of the system purpose and long term benefits. Specifically, reporting near-misses should be encouraged. This study is significant because it is the first to examine reporting practices in non-motorised recreational aviation.

When should ballooning incidents be reported?

This article follows on from our previous article in Aeronotes Volume 37 No.2 "Prepare and prevent, don't repair and repent: Causal factors of hot air ballooning incidents". While nearly every balloon flight ends safely, with every flight comes the opportunity for an accident. The ABF maintains an incident reporting database containing information on all the accidents and near misses that are reported to them. The goal of the database is to provide a formal way for ABF members to share accident or near miss experiences and prevent future occurrences. We recently analysed the causal factors involved in the incident reports collected by the ABF. Twenty-two incident reports were analysed and 54 causal factors were identified that were reported to play a role in hot air ballooning accidents. While many factors were identified, the findings of this study were limited by the small number of incident reports available from the ABF reporting system...

The safety risk management of unmanned aircraft systems

The safety risk management process describes the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the activities of communicating, consulting, establishing the context, and identifying, analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk. This process is undertaken to provide assurances that the risks of a particular unmanned aircraft system activity have been managed to an acceptable level. The safety risk management process and its outcomes form part of the documented safety case necessary to obtain approvals for unmanned aircraft system operations. It also guides the development of an organisation’s operations manual and is a primary component of an organisation’s safety management system. The aim of this chapter is to provide existing risk practitioners with a high level introduction to some of the unique issues and challenges in the application of the safety risk management process to unmanned aircraft systems. The scope is limited to safety risks associated with the operation of unmanned aircraft in the civil airspace system and over inhabited areas. The structure of the chapter is based on the safety risk management process as defined by the international risk management standard ISO 31000:2009 and draws on aviation safety resources provided by International Civil Aviation Organization, the Federal Aviation Administration and U.S. Department of Defense. References to relevant aviation safety regulations, programs of research and fielded systems are also provided.

A review of system safety failure probability objectives for Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are one of a number of emerging aviation sectors. Such new aviation concepts present a significant challenge to National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) charged with ensuring the safety of their operation within the existing airspace system. There is significant heritage in the existing body of aviation safety regulations for Conventionally Piloted Aircraft (CPA). It can be argued that the promulgation of these regulations has delivered a level of safety tolerable to society, thus justifying the “default position” of applying these same standards, regulations and regulatory structures to emerging aviation concepts such as UAS. An example of this is the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS, which is based on the 1309 regulation for CPA. However, the absence of a pilot on-board an unmanned aircraft creates a fundamentally different risk paradigm to that of CPA. An appreciation of these differences is essential to the justification of the “default position” and in turn, to ensure the development of effective safety standards and regulations for UAS. This paper explores the suitability of the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS. A detailed review of the proposed regulation is provided and a number of key assumptions are identified and discussed. A high-level model characterising the expected number of third party fatalities on the ground is then used to determine the impact of these assumptions. The results clearly show that the “one size fits all” approach to the definition of 1309 regulations for UAS, which mandates equipment design and installation requirements independent of where the UAS is to be operated, will not lead to an effective management of the risks.

Methodology to assess safety effects of future Intelligent Transport Systems on railway level crossings

There is consistent evidence showing that driver behaviour contributes to crashes and near miss incidents at railway level crossings (RLXs). The development of emerging Vehicle-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure technologies is a highly promising approach to improve RLX safety. To date, research has not evaluated comprehensively the potential effects of such technologies on driving behaviour at RLXs. This paper presents an on-going research programme assessing the impacts of such new technologies on human factors and drivers’ situational awareness at RLX. Additionally, requirements for the design of such promising technologies and ways to display safety information to drivers were systematically reviewed. Finally, a methodology which comprehensively assesses the effects of in-vehicle and road-based interventions warning the driver of incoming trains at RLXs is discussed, with a focus on both benefits and potential negative behavioural adaptations. The methodology is designed for implementation in a driving simulator and covers compliance, control of the vehicle, distraction, mental workload and drivers’ acceptance. This study has the potential to provide a broad understanding of the effects of deploying new in-vehicle and road-based technologies at RLXs and hence inform policy makers on safety improvements planning for RLX.

Fire safety of steel wall systems using enhanced plasterboards

Fire safety design is important to eliminate the loss of property and lives during fire events. Gypsum plasterboard is widely used as a fire safety material in the building industry all over the world. It contains gypsum (CaSO4.2H2O) and Calcium Carbonate (CaCO3) and most importantly free and chemically bound water in its crystal structure. The dehydration of the gypsum and the decomposition of Calcium Carbonate absorb heat, which gives the gypsum plasterboard fire resistant qualities. Currently plasterboard manufacturers use additives such as vermiculite to overcome shrinkage of gypsum core and glass fibre to bridge shrinkage cracks and enhance the integrity of board during calcination and after the loss of paper facings in fires. Past research has also attempted to reduce the thermal conductivity of plasterboards using fillers. However, no research has been undertaken to enhance the specific heat of plasterboard and the points of dehydration using chemical additives and fillers. Hence detailed experimental studies of powdered samples of plasterboard mixed with chemical additives and fillers in varying proportions were conducted. These tests showed the enhancement of specific heat of plasterboard. Numerical models were also developed to investigate the thermal performance of enhanced plasterboards under standard fire conditions. The results showed that the use of these enhanced plasterboards in steel wall systems can significantly improve their fire performance. This paper presents the details of this research and the results that can be used to enhance the fire safety of steel wall systems commonly used in buildings.