Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].

Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy

The standard Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition forces aggregate demand and supply shocks to be orthogonal. However, this assumption is problematic for a nation with an inflation target. The very notion of inflation targeting means that monetary policy reacts to changes in aggregate supply. This paper employs a modification of the BQ procedure that allows for correlated shifts in aggregate supply and demand. It is found that shocks to Australian aggregate demand and supply are highly correlated. The estimated shifts in the aggregate demand and supply curves are then used to measure the effects of inflation targeting on the Australian inflation rate and level of GDP.

Why do so few hold stocks : theory and evidence

This study develops a life-cycle model where investors make investment decisions in a realistic environment. Model results show that personal illiquid projects (housing and children), fixed costs (once-off/per-period participation costs plus variable/fixed transaction costs) and endogenous risky human capital (with permanent, transitory and disastrous shocks) together are able to address both the non-participation puzzle and the age-effects puzzle. Empirical implications of the model are examined using Heckman’s two-step method with the latest five Surveys of Consumer Finance (SCF). Regression results show that liquidity, informational cost and human capital are indeed the major determinants of participation and asset allocation decisions at different stages of an investor’s life.

Joseph A. Schumpeter, capitalism, socialism, and democracy

This is a review of "Capitalism, socialism, and democracy", by Joseph A. Schumpeter, New York, Harper Perennial, 1942 (first Harper Colophon edition published 1975). "The public mind has by now so thoroughly grown out of humor with it as to make condemnation of capitalism and all its works a foregone conclusion – almost a requirement of the etiquette of discussion. Whatever his political preference, every writer or speaker hastens to conform to this code and to emphasize his critical attitude, his freedom from ‘complacency’, his belief in the inadequacies of capitalist achievement, his aversion to capitalist and his sympathy with anti-capitalist interests. Any other attitude is voted not only foolish but anti-social and is looked upon as an indication of immoral servitude." We might easily mistake this for a voice weary of contemplating the implications for neo-liberal nostrums of our current global financial crisis were it not for the rather formal, slightly arch, style and the gender exclusive language. It was in fact penned in the depths of World War II by Harvard economist Joseph Schumpeter, who fell off the map only to re-emerge from the 1970s as oil shocks and stagflation in the west presaged the decline of the Keynesian settlement, as east Asian newly industrialising economies were modelling on his insistence that entrepreneurialism, access to credit and trade were the pillars of economic growth, and as innovation became more of a watchword for post-industrial economies in general. The second coming was perhaps affirmed when his work was dubbed by Forbes in 1983 – on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the birth of both men – as of greater explanatory import than Keynes’. (And what of our present resurgent Keynesian moment?)...

A preliminary theory of dark network resilience

A crucial contemporary policy question for governments across the globe is how to cope with international crime and terrorist networks. Many such “dark” networks—that is, networks that operate covertly and illegally—display a remarkable level of resilience when faced with shocks and attacks. Based on an in-depth study of three cases (MK, the armed wing of the African National Congress in South Africa during apartheid; FARC, the Marxist guerrilla movement in Colombia; and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, LTTE, in Sri Lanka), we present a set of propositions to outline how shocks impact dark network characteristics (resources and legitimacy) and networked capabilities (replacing actors, linkages, balancing integration and differentiation) and how these in turn affect a dark network's resilience over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for policymakers.

Verbal instruction abolishes fear conditioned to racial out-group faces

Previous research has shown resistance to extinction of fear conditioned to racial out-group faces, suggesting that these stimuli may be subject to prepared fear learning. The current study replicated and extended previous research by using a different racial out-group, and testing the prediction that prepared fear learning is unaffected by verbal instructions. Four groups of Caucasian participants were trained with male in-group (Caucasian) or out-group (Chinese) faces as conditional stimuli; one paired with an electro-tactile shock (CS+) and one presented alone (CS). Before extinction, half the participants were instructed that no more shocks would be presented. Fear conditioning, indexed by larger electrodermal responses to, and blink startle modulation during the CS+, occurred during acquisition in all groups. Resistance to extinction of fear learning was found only in the racial out-group, no instruction condition. Fear conditioned to a racial out-group face was reduced following verbal instructions, contrary to predictions for the nature of prepared fear learning.

The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets

The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.

Blast induced ground shock effects on pile foundations

Due to increased number of terrorist attacks in recent years, loads induced by explosions need to be incorporated in building designs. For safer performance of a structure, its foundation should have sufficient strength and stability. Therefore, prior to any reconstruction or rehabilitation of a building subjected to blast, it is important to examine adverse effects on the foundation caused by blast induced ground shocks. This paper evaluates the effects of a buried explosion on a pile foundation. It treats the dynamic response of the pile in saturated sand, using explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element software LS-DYNA. The blast induced wave propagation in the soil and the horizontal deformation of pile are presented and the results are discussed. Further, a parametric study is carried out to evaluate the effect of varying the explosive shape on the pile response. This information can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of piled foundations to credible blast events as well as develop guidance for their design.

Blast response and failure analysis of pile foundations subjected to surface explosion

This paper presents the response of pile foundations to ground shocks induced by surface explosion using fully coupled and non-linear dynamic computer simulation techniques together with different material models for the explosive, air, soil and pile. It uses the Arbitrary Lagrange Euler coupling formulation with proper state material parameters and equations. Blast wave propagation in soil, horizontal pile deformation and pile damage are presented to facilitate failure evaluation of piles. Effects of end restraint of pile head and the number and spacing of piles within a group on their blast response and potential failure are investigated. The techniques developed and applied in this paper and its findings provide valuable information on the blast response and failure evaluation of piles and will provide guidance in their future analysis and design.

Sequencing risk : the worst returns in their worst order

For the first of the baby boomers turning 65 years of age, after a decade littered with financial shocks (dot.com bubble, sub-prime, global financial crisis, sovereign debt), sequencing risk can represent a significant threat to their retirement nest eggs. This paper takes an outcomeoriented approach to the problem, to provide practical insights into how sequencing risk works and the critical dependency of retirement outcomes on sequencing risk. Our analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that it is the accumulated average of investment returns that matter. We show, instead, that it is the realised sequence of returns which largely determines the sustainability of retirement incomes.

International entrepreneurship and firm performance over economic crisis

Small and medium firms (SMEs) that operate in global markets are vulnerable to external shocks in uncertain, hostile and volatile business environments given their limited resources and inexperience. In such environments entrepreneurial firms respond by making strategic choices to mitigate such vulnerabilities. This research examines one such important strategic choice – entrepreneurial posturing and its link to financial performance in Finnish SMEs during the global financial crisis. Findings suggest that the dimensions of entrepreneurial posturing have a differential effect on firm performance depending upon the severity of the business environment as well as the firm’s degree of internationalization. Implications for theory and practice are discussed and directions for future research provided.