Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Prediction model of the buildup of volatile organic compounds on urban roads

A model to predict the buildup of mainly traffic-generated volatile organic compounds or VOCs (toluene, ethylbenzene, ortho-xylene, meta-xylene, and para-xylene) on urban road surfaces is presented. The model required three traffic parameters, namely average daily traffic (ADT), volume to capacity ratio (V/C), and surface texture depth (STD), and two chemical parameters, namely total suspended solid (TSS) and total organic carbon (TOC), as predictor variables. Principal component analysis and two phase factor analysis were performed to characterize the model calibration parameters. Traffic congestion was found to be the underlying cause of traffic-related VOC buildup on urban roads. The model calibration was optimized using orthogonal experimental design. Partial least squares regression was used for model prediction. It was found that a better optimized orthogonal design could be achieved by including the latent factors of the data matrix into the design. The model performed fairly accurately for three different land uses as well as five different particle size fractions. The relative prediction errors were 10–40% for the different size fractions and 28–40% for the different land uses while the coefficients of variation of the predicted intersite VOC concentrations were in the range of 25–45% for the different size fractions. Considering the sizes of the data matrices, these coefficients of variation were within the acceptable interlaboratory range for analytes at ppb concentration levels.

Non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage defects using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in osteoarthritic rat models and its direct relation to Mankin Score

Objective The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for categorizing cartilage degeneration induced in animal models. Method Three models of osteoarthritic degeneration were induced in laboratory rats via one of the following methods: (i) menisectomy (MSX); (ii) anterior cruciate ligament transaction (ACLT); and (iii) intra-articular injection of mono-ido-acetete (1 mg) (MIA), in the right knee joint, with 12 rats per model group. After 8 weeks, the animals were sacrificed and tibial knee joints were collected. A custom-made nearinfrared (NIR) probe of diameter 5 mm was placed on the cartilage surface and spectral data were acquired from each specimen in the wavenumber range 4 000 – 12 500 cm−1. Following spectral data acquisition, the specimens were fixed and Safranin–O staining was performed to assess disease severity based on the Mankin scoring system. Using multivariate statistical analysis based on principal component analysis and partial least squares regression, the spectral data were then related to the Mankinscores of the samples tested. Results Mild to severe degenerative cartilage changes were observed in the subject animals. The ACLT models showed mild cartilage degeneration, MSX models moderate, and MIA severe cartilage degenerative changes both morphologically and histologically. Our result demonstrate that NIR spectroscopic information is capable of separating the cartilage samples into different groups relative to the severity of degeneration, with NIR correlating significantly with their Mankinscore (R2 = 88.85%). Conclusion We conclude that NIR is a viable tool for evaluating articularcartilage health and physical properties such as change in thickness with degeneration.

Near infrared spectroscopy for non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage

There is a need for an accurate real-time quantitative system that would enhance decision-making in the treatment of osteoarthritis. To achieve this objective, significant research is required that will enable articular cartilage properties to be measured and categorized for health and functionality without the need for laboratory tests involving biopsies for pathological evaluation. Such a system would provide the capability of access to the internal condition of the cartilage matrix and thus extend the vision-based arthroscopy that is currently used beyond the subjective evaluation of surgeons. The system required must be able to non-destructively probe the entire thickness of the cartilage and its immediate subchondral bone layer. In this thesis, near infrared spectroscopy is investigated for the purpose mentioned above. The aim is to relate it to the structure and load bearing properties of the cartilage matrix to the near infrared absorption spectrum and establish functional relationships that will provide objective, quantitative and repeatable categorization of cartilage condition outside the area of visible degradation in a joint. Based on results from traditional mechanical testing, their innovative interpretation and relationship with spectroscopic data, new parameters were developed. These were then evaluated for their consistency in discriminating between healthy viable and degraded cartilage. The mechanical and physico-chemical properties were related to specific regions of the near infrared absorption spectrum that were identified as part of the research conducted for this thesis. The relationships between the tissue's near infrared spectral response and the new parameters were modeled using multivariate statistical techniques based on partial least squares regression (PLSR). With significantly high levels of statistical correlation, the modeled relationships were demonstrated to possess considerable potential in predicting the properties of unknown tissue samples in a quick and non-destructive manner. In order to adapt near infrared spectroscopy for clinical applications, a balance between probe diameter and the number of active transmit-receive optic fibres must be optimized. This was achieved in the course of this research, resulting in an optimal probe configuration that could be adapted for joint tissue evaluation. Furthermore, as a proof-of-concept, a protocol for obtaining the new parameters from the near infrared absorption spectra of cartilage was developed and implemented in a graphical user interface (GUI)-based software, and used to assess cartilage-on-bone samples in vitro. This conceptual implementation has been demonstrated, in part by the individual parametric relationship with the near infrared absorption spectrum, the capacity of the proposed system to facilitate real-time, non-destructive evaluation of cartilage matrix integrity. In summary, the potential of the optical near infrared spectroscopy for evaluating articular cartilage and bone laminate has been demonstrated in this thesis. The approach could have a spin-off for other soft tissues and organs of the body. It builds on the earlier work of the group at QUT, enhancing the near infrared component of the ongoing research on developing a tool for cartilage evaluation that goes beyond visual and subjective methods.

Young men utilise limited neuromuscular prepartion to regulate post-impact knee mechanics during step landing

Purpose The neuromuscular mechanisms determining the mechanical behaviour of the knee during landing impact remain poorly understood. It was hypothesised that neuromuscular preparation is subject-specific and ranges along a continuum from passive to active. Methods A group of healthy men (N = 12) stepped-down from a knee-high platform for 60 consecutive trials. Surface EMG of the quadriceps and hamstrings was used to determine pre-impact onset timing, activation amplitude and cocontraction for each trial. Partial least squares regression was used to associate pre-impact preparation with post-impact knee stiffness and coordination. Results The group analysis revealed few significant changes in pre-impact preparation across trial blocks. Single-subject analyses revealed changes in muscle activity that varied in size and direction between individuals. Further, the association between pre-impact preparation and post-impact knee mechanics was subject-specific and ranged along a continuum of strategies. Conclusion The findings suggest that neuromuscular preparation during step landing is subject-specific and its association to post-impact knee mechanics occurs along a continuum, ranging from passive to active control strategies. Further work should examine the implications of these strategies on the distribution of knee forces in-vivo.

A Near-Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy Method for Direct Analysis of Several Chemical Components and Properties of Fruit, for Example, Chinese Hawthorn

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) calibrations were developed for the discrimination of Chinese hawthorn (Crataegus pinnatifida Bge. var. major) fruit from three geographical regions as well as for the estimation of the total sugar, total acid, total phenolic content, and total antioxidant activity. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used for the discrimination of the fruit on the basis of their geographical origin. Three pattern recognition methods, linear discriminant analysis, partial least-squares-discriminant analysis, and back-propagation artificial neural networks, were applied to classify and compare these samples. Furthermore, three multivariate calibration models based on the first derivative NIR spectroscopy, partial least-squares regression, back-propagation artificial neural networks, and least-squares-support vector machines, were constructed for quantitative analysis of the four analytes, total sugar, total acid, total phenolic content, and total antioxidant activity, and validated by prediction data sets.

A second order control-volume finite-element least-squares strategy for simulating diffusion in strongly anisotropic media

An unstructured mesh �nite volume discretisation method for simulating di�usion in anisotropic media in two-dimensional space is discussed. This technique is considered as an extension of the fully implicit hybrid control-volume �nite-element method and it retains the local continuity of the ux at the control volume faces. A least squares function recon- struction technique together with a new ux decomposition strategy is used to obtain an accurate ux approximation at the control volume face, ensuring that the overall accuracy of the spatial discretisation maintains second order. This paper highlights that the new technique coincides with the traditional shape function technique when the correction term is neglected and that it signi�cantly increases the accuracy of the previous linear scheme on coarse meshes when applied to media that exhibit very strong to extreme anisotropy ratios. It is concluded that the method can be used on both regular and irregular meshes, and appears independent of the mesh quality.

Simultaneous determination of three synthetic glucocorticoids by differential pulse stripping voltammetry with the aid of chemometrics

A novel voltammetric method for simultaneous determination of the glucocorticoid residues prednisone, prednisolone, and dexamethasone was developed. All three compounds were reduced at a mercury electrode in a Britton-Robinson buffer (pH 3.78), and well-defined voltammetric waves were observed. However, the voltammograms of these three compounds overlapped seriously and showed nonlinear character, and thus, it was difficult to analyze the compounds individually in their mixtures. In this work, two chemometrics methods, principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares (PLS), were applied to resolve the overlapped voltammograms, and the calibration models were established for simultaneous determination of these compounds. Under the optimum experimental conditions, the limits of detection (LOD) were 5.6, 8.3, and 16.8 µg l-1 for prednisone, prednisolone, and dexamethasone, respectively. The proposed method was also applied for the determination of these glucocorticoid residues in the rabbit plasma and human urine samples with satisfactory results.

A differential kinetic spectrophotometric method for determination of three sulphanilamide artificial sweeteners with the aid of chemometrics

A simple and sensitive spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium sweeteners in foodstuff samples has been researched and developed. This analytical method relies on the different kinetic rates of the analytes in their oxidative reaction with KMnO4 to produce the green manganate product in an alkaline solution. As the kinetic rates of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium were similar and their kinetic data seriously overlapped, chemometrics methods, such as partial least squares (PLS), principal component regression (PCR) and classical least squares (CLS), were applied to resolve the kinetic data. The results showed that the PLS prediction model performed somewhat better. The proposed method was then applied for the determination of the three sweeteners in foodstuff samples, and the results compared well with those obtained by the reference HPLC method.

Simultaneous kinetic-spectrophotometric determination of maltol and ethyl maltol in food samples by using chemometrics

A fast and accurate procedure has been researched and developed for the simultaneous determination of maltol and ethyl maltol, based on their reaction with iron(III) in the presence of o-phenanthroline in sulfuric acid medium. This reaction was the basis for an indirect kinetic spectrophotometric method, which followed the development of the pink ferroin product (λmax = 524 nm). The kinetic data were collected in the 370–900 nm range over 0–30 s. The optimized method indicates that individual analytes followed Beer’s law in the concentration range of 4.0–76.0 mg L−1 for both maltol and ethyl maltol. The LOD values of 1.6 mg L−1 for maltol and 1.4 mg L−1 for ethyl maltol agree well with those obtained by the alternative high performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detection (HPLC-UV). Three chemometrics methods, principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS) and principal component analysis–radial basis function–artificial neural networks (PC–RBF–ANN), were used to resolve the measured data with small kinetic differences between the two analytes as reflected by the development of the pink ferroin product. All three performed satisfactorily in the case of the synthetic verification samples, and in their application for the prediction of the analytes in several food products. The figures of merit for the analytes based on the multivariate models agreed well with those from the alternative HPLC-UV method involving the same samples.

Multicomponent kinetic spectrophotometric determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin in pharmaceutical preparations and human plasma samples with the aid of chemometrics

A spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of the important pharmaceuticals, pefloxacin and its structurally similar metabolite, norfloxacin, is described for the first time. The analysis is based on the monitoring of a kinetic spectrophotometric reaction of the two analytes with potassium permanganate as the oxidant. The measurement of the reaction process followed the absorbance decrease of potassium permanganate at 526 nm, and the accompanying increase of the product, potassium manganate, at 608 nm. It was essential to use multivariate calibrations to overcome severe spectral overlaps and similarities in reaction kinetics. Calibration curves for the individual analytes showed linear relationships over the concentration ranges of 1.0–11.5 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for pefloxacin, and 0.15–1.8 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for norfloxacin. Various multivariate calibration models were applied, at the two analytical wavelengths, for the simultaneous prediction of the two analytes including classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS), radial basis function-artificial neural network (RBF-ANN) and principal component-radial basis function-artificial neural network (PC-RBF-ANN). PLS and PC-RBF-ANN calibrations with the data collected at 526 nm, were the preferred methods—%RPET not, vert, similar 5, and LODs for pefloxacin and norfloxacin of 0.36 and 0.06 mg L−1, respectively. Then, the proposed method was applied successfully for the simultaneous determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin present in pharmaceutical and human plasma samples. The results compared well with those from the alternative analysis by HPLC.

Numerical investigations of linear least squares methods for derivative estimation

The results of a numerical investigation into the errors for least squares estimates of function gradients are presented. The underlying algorithm is obtained by constructing a least squares problem using a truncated Taylor expansion. An error bound associated with this method contains in its numerator terms related to the Taylor series remainder, while its denominator contains the smallest singular value of the least squares matrix. Perhaps for this reason the error bounds are often found to be pessimistic by several orders of magnitude. The circumstance under which these poor estimates arise is elucidated and an empirical correction of the theoretical error bounds is conjectured and investigated numerically. This is followed by an indication of how the conjecture is supported by a rigorous argument.