Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Design of fixed order robust power oscillation damper for TCSC

This paper illustrates robust fixed order power oscillation damper design for mitigating power systems oscillations. From implementation and tuning point of view, such low and fixed structure is common practice for most practical applications, including power systems. However, conventional techniques of optimal and robust control theory cannot handle the constraint of fixed-order as it is, in general, impossible to ensure a target closed-loop transfer function by a controller of any given order. This paper deals with the problem of synthesizing or designing a feedback controller of dynamic order for a linear time-invariant plant for a fixed plant, as well as for an uncertain family of plants containing parameter uncertainty, so that stability, robust stability and robust performance are attained. The desired closed-loop specifications considered here are given in terms of a target performance vector representing a desired closed-loop design. The performance of the designed controller is validated through non-linear simulations for a range of contingencies.

A Fixed Order Model Matching Approach for the Design of Robust Power System Oscillation Damper

This book focuses on how evolutionary computing techniques benefit engineering research and development tasks by converting practical problems of growing complexities into simple formulations, thus largely reducing development efforts. This book begins with an overview of the optimization theory and modern evolutionary computing techniques, and goes on to cover specific applications of evolutionary computing to power system optimization and control problems.

Impacts of wind power integration on small signal stability and low frequency oscillation characteristics of interconnected power systems

为研究风电并网对互联系统低频振荡的影响,基于完整的双馈风电机组模型,定性分析了两区域互联系统在风电机组并网前后阻尼特性的变化情况.从双馈风电机组并网输送距离、并网容量、互联系统联络线传送功率、是否加装电力系统稳定器等多个方面,多角度分析了风电场并网对互联系统小干扰稳定及低频振荡特性的影响.之后,以两个包括两个区域的电力系统为例,进行了系统的计算分析和比较.结果表明,有双馈风电机组接入的互联电力系统,在不同运行模式下,双馈风电机组的并网输送距离、出力水平、联络线传送功率对低频振荡模式的影响在趋势和程度上均有显著差异,这样在对风电场进行入网规划、设计和运行时就需要综合考虑这些因素的影响.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

End-winding effect on shalft voltage in AC generators

This paper presents effects of end-winding on shaft voltage in AC generators. A variety of design parameters have been considered to calculate the parasitic capacitive couplings in the machine structure with Finite Elements simulations and mathematical calculations. End-winding capacitances have also been calculated to have a precise estimation of shaft voltage and its relationship with design parameters in AC generators.

Natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in south-eastern Queensland eucalypt plantations

Abstract A field survey for natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria was conducted at two south-eastern Queensland Eucalyptus cloeziana plantation sites during 2004–2005. Primary egg and larval parasitoids and associated hyperparasitoids were identified to genus or species, and parasitism rates were determined throughout the season. Predators were identified to family level but their impact was not quantified. P. atomaria adults were also examined as potential hosts for parasitic mites and nematodes. An undescribed species of Neopolycystus (Pteromalidae) was the major primary egg parasitoid species reared from egg batches, parasitising half of all egg batches collected. Three hyperparasitoid species (Baeoanusia albifunicle (Encyrtidae), Neblatticida sp. (Encyrtidae) and Aphaneromella sp. (Platygasteridae) were present, representing around one-quarter to one-third of all emergent wasps; this is the first host association record for Neopolycystus–B. albifunicle. In contrast to populations of P. atomaria from the Australian Capital Territory, primary larval parasitism was very low, around 1%, and attributable only to the tachinid flies Anagonia sp. and Paropsivora sp. However, the presence of the sit-and-wait larval hyperparasitoid, Perilampus sp. (Perilampidae) was high, emerging from around 17% of tachinid pupae, with planidia infesting a further 40% of unparasitised hosts. Three species of podapolipid mites parasitised sexually mature P. atomaria adults, while no nematodes were found in this study. Spiders were the most common predators and their abundance was positively correlated with P. atomaria adult and egg numbers. Although natural enemy species composition was identical between our two study sites, significant differences in abundance and frequency were found between sites