Improving the management of building life cycle : a data mining approach

The construction industry has adapted information technology in its processes in terms of computer aided design and drafting, construction documentation and maintenance. The data generated within the construction industry has become increasingly overwhelming. Data mining is a sophisticated data search capability that uses classification algorithms to discover patterns and correlations within a large volume of data. This paper presents the selection and application of data mining techniques on maintenance data of buildings. The results of applying such techniques and potential benefits of utilising their results to identify useful patterns of knowledge and correlations to support decision making of improving the management of building life cycle are presented and discussed.

Using data mining to improve building life cycle

The building life cycle process is complex and prone to fragmentation as it moves through its various stages. The number of participants, and the diversity, specialisation and isolation both in space and time of their activities, have dramatically increased over time. The data generated within the construction industry has become increasingly overwhelming. Most currently available computer tools for the building industry have offered productivity improvement in the transmission of graphical drawings and textual specifications, without addressing more fundamental changes in building life cycle management. Facility managers and building owners are primarily concerned with highlighting areas of existing or potential maintenance problems in order to be able to improve the building performance, satisfying occupants and minimising turnover especially the operational cost of maintenance. In doing so, they collect large amounts of data that is stored in the building’s maintenance database. The work described in this paper is targeted at adding value to the design and maintenance of buildings by turning maintenance data into information and knowledge. Data mining technology presents an opportunity to increase significantly the rate at which the volumes of data generated through the maintenance process can be turned into useful information. This can be done using classification algorithms to discover patterns and correlations within a large volume of data. This paper presents how and what data mining techniques can be applied on maintenance data of buildings to identify the impediments to better performance of building assets. It demonstrates what sorts of knowledge can be found in maintenance records. The benefits to the construction industry lie in turning passive data in databases into knowledge that can improve the efficiency of the maintenance process and of future designs that incorporate that maintenance knowledge.

Defining the flammability of cylindrical metal rods through characterization of the thermal effects of the ignition promoter

All relevant international standards for determining if a metallic rod is flammable in oxygen utilize some form of “promoted ignition” test. In this test, for a given pressure, an overwhelming ignition source is coupled to the end of the test sample and the designation flammable or nonflammable is based upon the amount burned, that is, a burn criteria. It is documented that (1) the initial temperature of the test sample affects the burning of the test sample both (a) in regards to the pressure at which the sample will support burning (threshold pressure) and (b) the rate at which the sample is melted (regression rate of the melting interface); and, (2) the igniter used affects the test sample by heating it adjacent to the igniter as ignition occurs. Together, these facts make it necessary to ensure, if a metallic material is to be considered flammable at the conditions tested, that the burn criteria will exclude any region of the test sample that may have undergone preheating during the ignition process. A two-dimensional theoretical model was developed to describe the transient heat transfer occurring and resultant temperatures produced within this system. Several metals (copper, aluminum, iron, and stainless steel) and ignition promoters (magnesium, aluminum, and Pyrofuze®) were evaluated for a range of oxygen pressures between 0.69 MPa (100 psia) and 34.5 MPa (5,000 psia). A MATLAB® program was utilized to solve the developed model that was validated against (1) a published solution for a similar system and (2) against experimental data obtained during actual tests at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration White Sands Test Facility. The validated model successfully predicts temperatures within the test samples with agreement between model and experiment increasing as test pressure increases and/or distance from the promoter increases. Oxygen pressure and test sample thermal diffusivity were shown to have the largest effect on the results. In all cases evaluated, there is no significant preheating (above about 38°C/100°F) occurring at distances greater than 30 mm (1.18 in.) during the time the ignition source is attached to the test sample. This validates a distance of 30 mm (1.18 in.) above the ignition promoter as a burn length upon which a definition of flammable can be based for inclusion in relevant international standards (that is, burning past this length will always be independent of the ignition event for the ignition promoters considered here. KEYWORDS: promoted ignition, metal combustion, heat conduction, thin fin, promoted combustion, burn length, burn criteria, flammability, igniter effects, heat affected zone.

Research productivity levels of Chinese TEFL academics

Since China’s Economic Reform and its Open Door Policy, China has entered a new era of education (Adamson, 2002; Hu, 2005a). English has gained status as a language for international relations (Graddol, 1997) and international trade (Qu, 2007). Hence, in 2001, China’s Ministry of Education (MOE) required universities to offer 5-10% of their course units in English, particularly in the fields of information technology, biotechnology, finance and law (Jen, 2001; MOE, 2001). However, “the upgrading of national English proficiency, then, is predicted largely on the professional competence of the teaching force” (Hu, 2005b, p. 655). For TEFL academics, one component of this competence is the capacity to conduct research (Day, 1991; Shu, 2002). Indeed, research productivity has become essential for university success, and academics’ employment and promotional prospects. This study aims to investigate 182 Chinese TEFL academics’ research outputs across three Chinese higher education institutions through the research question: What are the research productivity levels of Chinese TEFL academics? A survey instrument was devised to gather TEFL academics’ calculations of research productivity and, in particular, the quality and quantity of research outputs over a five-year period (2004-2008). Descriptive statistics through SPSS were used to analyse data across research output fields (e.g., journal articles, conference papers). Academic status varied (n=182; teaching assistants 23.6%, lecturers 47.3%, associate professors 22.5%, and professors 6.6%) as did years of teaching (1-5 years 27.4%, 6-10 years 24.7%, 11-15 18.1%, 16-20 years 13.7%, > 21 years 15.9%). Results (n=182, male=27%, females=73%) indicated 18% had not produced any research in the five-year period. Indeed, more than 70% had produced no research in all categories except non-core journal articles and provincial projects. An overwhelming majority of TEFL academics had zero productivity in 10 of the 12 categories. Nevertheless, there were highly-productive TEFL academics, who had produced five or more pieces of research across the 12 categories. In addition, there was not much difference between sole and co-authored research outputs, except non-core journal articles where sole authored work was 20% higher than co-authored work. China’s desire for international competitiveness in education will require measures that facilitate higher levels of research productivity. These measures must include professional development, support and mentoring programs, and employment of personnel who can guide these processes. Research performance is an outcome, hence there is a need to understand Chinese TEFL academics’ perceptions about research, and experiences that may hinder and facilitate higher research productivity.

Adaptive and phase transition behavior in performance of discrete multi-articular actions by degenerate neurobiological systems

The identification of attractors is one of the key tasks in studies of neurobiological coordination from a dynamical systems perspective, with a considerable body of literature resulting from this task. However, with regards to typical movement models investigated, the overwhelming majority of actions studied previously belong to the class of continuous, rhythmical movements. In contrast, very few studies have investigated coordination of discrete movements, particularly multi-articular discrete movements. In the present study, we investigated phase transition behavior in a basketball throwing task where participants were instructed to shoot at the basket from different distances. Adopting the ubiquitous scaling paradigm, throwing distance was manipulated as a candidate control parameter. Using a cluster analysis approach, clear phase transitions between different movement patterns were observed in performance of only two of eight participants. The remaining participants used a single movement pattern and varied it according to throwing distance, thereby exhibiting hysteresis effects. Results suggested that, in movement models involving many biomechanical degrees of freedom in degenerate systems, greater movement variation across individuals is available for exploitation. This observation stands in contrast to movement variation typically observed in studies using more constrained bi-manual movement models. This degenerate system behavior provides new insights and poses fresh challenges to the dynamical systems theoretical approach, requiring further research beyond conventional movement models.

Recommending best answer in a collaborative question answering system

The World Wide Web has become a medium for people to share information. People use Web-based collaborative tools such as question answering (QA) portals, blogs/forums, email and instant messaging to acquire information and to form online-based communities. In an online QA portal, a user asks a question and other users can provide answers based on their knowledge, with the question usually being answered by many users. It can become overwhelming and/or time/resource consuming for a user to read all of the answers provided for a given question. Thus, there exists a need for a mechanism to rank the provided answers so users can focus on only reading good quality answers. The majority of online QA systems use user feedback to rank users’ answers and the user who asked the question can decide on the best answer. Other users who didn’t participate in answering the question can also vote to determine the best answer. However, ranking the best answer via this collaborative method is time consuming and requires an ongoing continuous involvement of users to provide the needed feedback. The objective of this research is to discover a way to recommend the best answer as part of a ranked list of answers for a posted question automatically, without the need for user feedback. The proposed approach combines both a non-content-based reputation method and a content-based method to solve the problem of recommending the best answer to the user who posted the question. The non-content method assigns a score to each user which reflects the users’ reputation level in using the QA portal system. Each user is assigned two types of non-content-based reputations cores: a local reputation score and a global reputation score. The local reputation score plays an important role in deciding the reputation level of a user for the category in which the question is asked. The global reputation score indicates the prestige of a user across all of the categories in the QA system. Due to the possibility of user cheating, such as awarding the best answer to a friend regardless of the answer quality, a content-based method for determining the quality of a given answer is proposed, alongside the non-content-based reputation method. Answers for a question from different users are compared with an ideal (or expert) answer using traditional Information Retrieval and Natural Language Processing techniques. Each answer provided for a question is assigned a content score according to how well it matched the ideal answer. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methods, each recommended best answer is compared with the best answer determined by one of the most popular link analysis methods, Hyperlink-Induced Topic Search (HITS). The proposed methods are able to yield high accuracy, as shown by correlation scores: Kendall correlation and Spearman correlation. The reputation method outperforms the HITS method in terms of recommending the best answer. The inclusion of the reputation score with the content score improves the overall performance, which is measured through the use of Top-n match scores.

Digital kids, analogue students : a mixed methods study of students' engagement with a school-based Web 2.0 learning innovation

The inquiry documented in this thesis is located at the nexus of technological innovation and traditional schooling. As we enter the second decade of a new century, few would argue against the increasingly urgent need to integrate digital literacies with traditional academic knowledge. Yet, despite substantial investments from governments and businesses, the adoption and diffusion of contemporary digital tools in formal schooling remain sluggish. To date, research on technology adoption in schools tends to take a deficit perspective of schools and teachers, with the lack of resources and teacher ‘technophobia’ most commonly cited as barriers to digital uptake. Corresponding interventions that focus on increasing funding and upskilling teachers, however, have made little difference to adoption trends in the last decade. Empirical evidence that explicates the cultural and pedagogical complexities of innovation diffusion within long-established conventions of mainstream schooling, particularly from the standpoint of students, is wanting. To address this knowledge gap, this thesis inquires into how students evaluate and account for the constraints and affordances of contemporary digital tools when they engage with them as part of their conventional schooling. It documents the attempted integration of a student-led Web 2.0 learning initiative, known as the Student Media Centre (SMC), into the schooling practices of a long-established, high-performing independent senior boys’ school in urban Australia. The study employed an ‘explanatory’ two-phase research design (Creswell, 2003) that combined complementary quantitative and qualitative methods to achieve both breadth of measurement and richness of characterisation. In the initial quantitative phase, a self-reported questionnaire was administered to the senior school student population to determine adoption trends and predictors of SMC usage (N=481). Measurement constructs included individual learning dispositions (learning and performance goals, cognitive playfulness and personal innovativeness), as well as social and technological variables (peer support, perceived usefulness and ease of use). Incremental predictive models of SMC usage were conducted using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modelling: (i) individual-level predictors, (ii) individual and social predictors, and (iii) individual, social and technological predictors. Peer support emerged as the best predictor of SMC usage. Other salient predictors include perceived ease of use and usefulness, cognitive playfulness and learning goals. On the whole, an overwhelming proportion of students reported low usage levels, low perceived usefulness and a lack of peer support for engaging with the digital learning initiative. The small minority of frequent users reported having high levels of peer support and robust learning goal orientations, rather than being predominantly driven by performance goals. These findings indicate that tensions around social validation, digital learning and academic performance pressures influence students’ engagement with the Web 2.0 learning initiative. The qualitative phase that followed provided insights into these tensions by shifting the analytics from individual attitudes and behaviours to shared social and cultural reasoning practices that explain students’ engagement with the innovation. Six indepth focus groups, comprising 60 students with different levels of SMC usage, were conducted, audio-recorded and transcribed. Textual data were analysed using Membership Categorisation Analysis. Students’ accounts converged around a key proposition. The Web 2.0 learning initiative was useful-in-principle but useless-in-practice. While students endorsed the usefulness of the SMC for enhancing multimodal engagement, extending peer-topeer networks and acquiring real-world skills, they also called attention to a number of constraints that obfuscated the realisation of these design affordances in practice. These constraints were cast in terms of three binary formulations of social and cultural imperatives at play within the school: (i) ‘cool/uncool’, (ii) ‘dominant staff/compliant student’, and (iii) ‘digital learning/academic performance’. The first formulation foregrounds the social stigma of the SMC among peers and its resultant lack of positive network benefits. The second relates to students’ perception of the school culture as authoritarian and punitive with adverse effects on the very student agency required to drive the innovation. The third points to academic performance pressures in a crowded curriculum with tight timelines. Taken together, findings from both phases of the study provide the following key insights. First, students endorsed the learning affordances of contemporary digital tools such as the SMC for enhancing their current schooling practices. For the majority of students, however, these learning affordances were overshadowed by the performative demands of schooling, both social and academic. The student participants saw engagement with the SMC in-school as distinct from, even oppositional to, the conventional social and academic performance indicators of schooling, namely (i) being ‘cool’ (or at least ‘not uncool’), (ii) sufficiently ‘compliant’, and (iii) achieving good academic grades. Their reasoned response therefore, was simply to resist engagement with the digital learning innovation. Second, a small minority of students seemed dispositionally inclined to negotiate the learning affordances and performance constraints of digital learning and traditional schooling more effectively than others. These students were able to engage more frequently and meaningfully with the SMC in school. Their ability to adapt and traverse seemingly incommensurate social and institutional identities and norms is theorised as cultural agility – a dispositional construct that comprises personal innovativeness, cognitive playfulness and learning goals orientation. The logic then is ‘both and’ rather than ‘either or’ for these individuals with a capacity to accommodate both learning and performance in school, whether in terms of digital engagement and academic excellence, or successful brokerage across multiple social identities and institutional affiliations within the school. In sum, this study takes us beyond the familiar terrain of deficit discourses that tend to blame institutional conservatism, lack of resourcing and teacher resistance for low uptake of digital technologies in schools. It does so by providing an empirical base for the development of a ‘third way’ of theorising technological and pedagogical innovation in schools, one which is more informed by students as critical stakeholders and thus more relevant to the lived culture within the school, and its complex relationship to students’ lives outside of school. It is in this relationship that we find an explanation for how these individuals can, at the one time, be digital kids and analogue students.

Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients 2009 revision

Background: Currently used Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients, which measure probability of survival (Ps), were derived from the Major Trauma Outcome Study (MTOS) in 1995 and are now unlikely to be optimal. This study aims to estimate new TRISS coefficients using a contemporary database of injured patients presenting to emergency departments in the United States; and to compare these against the MTOS coefficients.---------- Methods: Data were obtained from the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the NTDB National Sample Project (NSP). TRISS coefficients were estimated using logistic regression. Separate coefficients were derived from complete case and multistage multiple imputation analyses for each NTDB and NSP dataset. Associated Ps over Injury Severity Score values were graphed and compared by age (adult ≥ 15 years; pediatric < 15 years) and injury mechanism (blunt; penetrating) groups. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves was used to assess coefficients’ predictive performance.---------- Results: Overall 1,072,033 NTDB and 1,278,563 weighted NSP injury events were included, compared with 23,177 used in the original MTOS analyses. Large differences were seen between results from complete case and imputed analyses. For blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries, there were similarities between coefficients estimated on imputed samples, and marked divergences between associated Ps estimated and those from the MTOS. However, negligible differences existed between area under the receiver operating characteristic curves estimates because the overwhelming majority of patients had minor trauma and survived. For pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries, variability in coefficients was large and Ps estimates unreliable.---------- Conclusions: Imputed NTDB coefficients are recommended as the TRISS coefficients 2009 revision for blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries. Coefficients for pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries could not be reliably estimated.

Listening to late discovery adoption and donor offspring stories : adoption, ethics and implications for contemporary donor insemination practices

For most of the 20th Century a ‘closed’ system of adoption was practised throughout Australia and other modern Western societies. This ‘closed’ system was characterised by sealed records; amended birth certificates to conceal the adoption, and prohibited contact with all biological family. Despite claims that these measures protected these children from the taint of illegitimacy the central motivations were far more complex, involving a desire to protect couples from the stigma of infertility and to provide a socially acceptable family structure (Triseliotis, Feast, & Kyle, 2005; Marshall & McDonald, 2001). From the 1960s significant evidence began to emerge that many adopted children and adults were experiencing higher incidences of psychological difficulties, characterised by problems with psychological adjustment, building self-esteem and forming a secure personal identity. These difficulties became grouped under the term ‘genealogical bewilderment’. As a result, new policies and practices were introduced to try to place the best interests of the child at the forefront. These changes reflected new understandings of adoption; as not only an individual process but also as a social and relational process that continues throughout life. Secrecy and the withholding of birth information are now prohibited in the overwhelming majority of all domestic adoptions processed in Australia (Marshall & McDonald, 2001). One little known consequence of this ‘closed’ system of adoption was the significant number of children who were never told of their adoptive status. As a consequence, some have discovered or had this information disclosed to them, as adults. The first study that looked at the late discovery of genetic origins experiences was conducted by the Post Adoption Resource Centre in New South Wales in 1999. This report found that the participants in their study expressed feelings of disbelief, confusion, anger, sorrow and loss. Further, the majority of participants continued to struggle with issues arising from this intentional concealment of their genetic origins (Perl & Markham, 1999). A second and more recent study (Passmore, Feeney & Foulstone, 2007) looked at the issue of secrecy in adoptive families as part of a broader study of 144 adult adoptees. This study found that secrecy and/or lies or misinformation on the part of adoptive parents had negative effects on both personal identity and relationships with others. The authors noted that those adoptees who found out about their adoption as adults were ‘especially likely to feel a sense of betrayal’ (p.4). Over recent years, stories of secrecy and late discovery have also started to emerge from sperm donor conceived adults (Spencer, 2007; Turner & Coyle, 2000). Current research evidence shows that although a majority of couples during the donor assisted conception process indicate that they intend to tell the offspring about their origins, as many as two-thirds or more of couples continue to withhold this information from their children (Akker, 2006; Gottlieb, A. McWhinnie, 2001; Salter-Ling, Hunter, & Glover, 2001). Why do they keep this secret? Infertility involves a range of complex factors that are often left unresolved or poorly understood by those choosing insemination by donor as a form of family building (Schaffer, J. A., & Diamond, R., 1993). These factors may only impact after the child is born, when resemblance talk becomes most pronounced. Resemblance talk is an accepted form of public discourse and a social convention that legitimises the child as part of the family and is part of the process of constructing the child’s identity within the family. Couples tend to become focused on resemblance as this is where they feel most vulnerable, and the lack of resemblance to the parenting father may trigger his sense of loss (Becker, Butler, & Nachtigall, 2005).

The role of emotional labour and role stress on burnout and psychological strain in high contact service employees

This study examines the relationships between job demands (in the form of role stressors and emotional management) and employee burnout amongst high contact service employees. Employees in customer facing roles are frequently required to manage overwhelming, conflicting or ambiguous demands, which they may feel ill-equipped to handle. Simultaneously, they must manage the emotions they display towards customers, suppressing some, and expressing others, be they genuine or contrived. If the in-role effort required of employees exceeds their inherent capacity to cope, burnout may result. Burnout, in turn, can have serious detrimental consequences for the psychological well being of employees. We find that both emotional management and role stressors impact burnout. We also confirm that burnout predicts psychological strain. In line with the Job Demands and Resources Model, we examine the mitigating impact of perceived support on these relationships but do not find a significant mitigating impact.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change : the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

Background: There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change.---------- Methods: Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and nongovernmental organisations in South-East Queensland.---------- Results: The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability.---------- Conclusion: The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists’ views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.

Employer-based support for registered nurses undertaking postgraduate study via distance education

Previous literature has focused on the need for support of undergraduate nursing students during clinical placements. Little is known about the support provided by employers for registered nurses (RNs) who pursue further education. This study sought to identify and describe the types, levels and perceived need for support in the workplace for RNs as they undertake further postgraduate nursing study by distance education (DE).Using an exploratory descriptive design a self-report questionnaire was distributed to a convenient sample of 270 RNs working in one acute care public hospital in Tasmania, Australia.92 questionnaires (response rate 34%) were returned with 26 (28%) reporting being currently enrolled in further study by DE and a further 50 (54)% of RNs planning future study. Results revealed that 100% of participants with a Masters degree completed this by DE. There were differences between the support sought by RNs to that offered by employers, and 16 (34%) who had done or were currently doing DE study, received no support to undertake DE. There was an overwhelming desire by RNs for support; 87 (94%), with a majority believing some support should be mandatory 76 (83%).This study may encourage employers to introduce structured support systems that will actively assist nurses to pursue further study. © 2010.

Continuous and pedagogically sound assessment : A new economy of power relations in Australian Law schools

In recent decades, assessment practices within Australian law schools have moved from the overwhelming use of end-of-year closed-book examinations to an increase in the use of a wider range of techniques. This shift is often characterised as providing a ‘better’ learning environment for students, contributing more positively to their own ‘personal development’ within higher education, or, considered along the lines of critical legal thought, as ‘liberating’ them from the ‘conservatising’ and ‘indoctrinating’ effects of the power relations that operate in law schools. This paper seeks to render problematic such liberal-progressive narratives about these changes to law school assessment practices. It will do so by utilising the work of French historian and philosopher Michel Foucault on power, arguing that the current range of assessment techniques demonstrates a shift in the ‘economy’ of power relations within the law school. Rather than ‘liberating’ students from relations of power, these practices actually extend the power relations through which students are governed. This analysis is intended to inform legal education research and assessment practice by providing a far more nuanced conceptual framework than one that seeks to ‘free’ law students from these ‘repressive’ practices, or hopes to ‘objectively’ contribute to their ‘personal development’.

Exploring health behaviour determinants of ageing Australians with chronic diseases

Background: Chronic disease presents overwhelming challenges to elderly patients, their families, health care providers and the health care system. The aim of this study was to explore a theoretical model for effective management of chronic diseases, especially type 2 diabetes mellitus and/or cardiovascular disease. The assumed theoretical model considered the connections between physical function, mental health, social support and health behaviours. The study effort was to improve the quality of life for people with chronic diseases, especially type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease and to reduce health costs. Methods: A cross-sectional post questionnaire survey was conducted in early 2009 from a randomised sample of Australians aged 50 to 80 years. A total of 732 subjects were eligible for analysis. Firstly, factors influencing respondents‘ quality of life were investigated through bivariate and multivariate regression analysis. Secondly, the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) model for regular physical activity, healthy eating and medication adherence behaviours was tested for all relevant respondents using regression analysis. Thirdly, TPB variable differences between respondents who have diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease and those without these diseases were compared. Finally, the TPB model for three behaviours including regular physical activity, healthy eating and medication adherence were tested in respondents with diabetes and/or cardiovascular diseases using Structure Equation Modelling (SEM). Results: This was the first study combining the three behaviours using a TPB model, while testing the influence of extra variables on the TPB model in one study. The results of this study provided evidence that the ageing process was a cumulative effect of biological change, socio-economic environment and lifelong behaviours. Health behaviours, especially physical activity and healthy eating were important modifiable factors influencing respondents‘ quality of life. Since over 80% of the respondents had at least one chronic disease, it was important to consider supporting older people‘s chronic disease self-management skills such as healthy diet, regular physical activity and medication adherence to improve their quality of life. Direct measurement of the TPB model was helpful in understanding respondents‘ intention and behaviour toward physical activity, healthy eating and medication adherence. In respondents with diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease, the TPB model predicted different proportions of intention toward three different health behaviours with 39% intending to engage in physical activity, 49% intending to engage in healthy eating and 47% intending to comply with medication adherence. Perceived behavioural control, which was proven to be the same as self-efficacy in measurement in this study, played an important role in predicting intention towards the three health behaviours. Also social norms played a slightly more important role than attitude for physical activity and medication adherence, while attitude and social norms had similar effects on healthy eating in respondents with diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. Both perceived behavioural control and intention directly predicted recent actual behaviours. Physical activity was more a volitional control behaviour than healthy eating and medication adherence. Step by step goal setting and motivation was more important for physical activity, while accessibility, resources and other social environmental factors were necessary for improving healthy eating and medication adherence. The extra variables of age, waist circumference, health related quality of life and depression indirectly influenced intention towards the three behaviours mainly mediated through attitude and perceived behavioural control. Depression was a serious health problem that reduced the three health behaviours‘ motivation, mediated through decreased self-efficacy and negative attitude. This research provided evidence that self-efficacy is similar to perceived behavioural control in the TPB model and intention is a proximal goal toward a particular behaviour. Combining four sources of information in the self-efficacy model with the TPB model would improve chronic disease patients‘ self management behaviour and reach an improved long-term treatment outcome. Conclusion: Health intervention programs that target chronic disease management should focus on patients‘ self-efficacy. A holistic approach which is patient-centred and involves a multidisciplinary collaboration strategy would be effective. Supporting the socio-economic environment and the mental/ emotional environment for older people needs to be considered within an integrated health care system.

A proposed role for models and simulations in management research

Overall, computer models and simulations have a rather disappointing record within the management sciences as a tool for predicting the future. Social and market environments can be influenced by an overwhelming number of variables, and it is therefore difficult to use computer models to make forecasts or to test hypotheses concerning the relationship between individual behaviours and macroscopic outcomes. At the same time, however, advocates of computer models argue that they can be used to overcome the human mind's inability to cope with several complex variables simultaneously or to understand concepts that are highly counterintuitive. This paper seeks to bridge the gap between these two perspectives by suggesting that management research can indeed benefit from computer models by using them to formulate fruitful hypotheses.