Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

The human dimension of nosocomial wound infection : a study in liminality

Nosocomial wound infection is a disease that has to date been primarily understood through the language of science and biomedicine. This paper reports on findings from a sociological, interpretive study that focused on the experiential dimension of this phenomenon. The illness experience of a nosocomial wound infection is examined within a cultural milieu that values the smooth, untroubled body and alternatively ascribes cultural meaning to a body that has a definable illness. Within this context the person with a chronic wound from nosocomial infection defies normative categorisation and is thus situated outside the patterning of society. The human dimension of nosocomial wound infection includes the private, existential and embodied aspects of living with a chronic, infected wound. This report indicates that the experiential dimension is characterised by an embodied state of liminality. People with this illness live an indeterminate existence that is in-between health and illness, cure and disease. As such they have no recognised place in the medical or social world.

Likelihood‐free inference for transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Case study: Estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens Models and methods Data analysis and results Discussion References

Interventions to control nosocomial infections : study designs and statistical issues

There is a wide range of potential study designs for intervention studies to decrease nosocomial infections in hospitals. The analysis is complex due to competing events, clustering, multiple timescales and time-dependent period and intervention variables. This review considers the popular pre-post quasi-experimental design and compares it with randomized designs. Randomization can be done in several ways: randomization of the cluster [intensive care unit (ICU) or hospital] in a parallel design; randomization of the sequence in a cross-over design; and randomization of the time of intervention in a stepped-wedge design. We introduce each design in the context of nosocomial infections and discuss the designs with respect to the following key points: bias, control for nonintervention factors, and generalizability. Statistical issues are discussed. A pre-post-intervention design is often the only choice that will be informative for a retrospective analysis of an outbreak setting. It can be seen as a pilot study with further, more rigorous designs needed to establish causality. To yield internally valid results, randomization is needed. Generally, the first choice in terms of the internal validity should be a parallel cluster randomized trial. However, generalizability might be stronger in a stepped-wedge design because a wider range of ICU clinicians may be convinced to participate, especially if there are pilot studies with promising results. For analysis, the use of extended competing risk models is recommended.

Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Economics and preventing healthcare acquired infection

The evolution of organisms that cause healthcare acquired infections (HAI) puts extra stress on hospitals already struggling with rising costs and demands for greater productivity and cost containment. Infection control can save scarce resources, lives, and possibly a facility’s reputation, but statistics and epidemiology are not always sufficient to make the case for the added expense. Economics and Preventing Healthcare Acquired Infection presents a rigorous analytic framework for dealing with this increasingly serious problem. ----- Engagingly written for the economics non-specialist, and brimming with tables, charts, and case examples, the book lays out the concepts of economic analysis in clear, real-world terms so that infection control professionals or infection preventionists will gain competence in developing analyses of their own, and be confident in the arguments they present to decision-makers. The authors: ----- Ground the reader in the basic principles and language of economics. ----- Explain the role of health economists in general and in terms of infection prevention and control. ----- Introduce the concept of economic appraisal, showing how to frame the problem, evaluate and use data, and account for uncertainty. ----- Review methods of estimating and interpreting the costs and health benefits of HAI control programs and prevention methods. ----- Walk the reader through a published economic appraisal of an infection reduction program. ----- Identify current and emerging applications of economics in infection control. ---- Economics and Preventing Healthcare Acquired Infection is a unique resource for practitioners and researchers in infection prevention, control and healthcare economics. It offers valuable alternate perspective for professionals in health services research, healthcare epidemiology, healthcare management, and hospital administration. ----- Written for: Professionals and researchers in infection control, health services research, hospital epidemiology, healthcare economics, healthcare management, hospital administration; Association of Professionals in Infection Control (APIC), Society for Healthcare Epidemiologists of America (SHEA)

Cost effectiveness of antimicrobial catheters in the intensive care unit : Addressing uncertainty in the decision

Introduction: Some types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters (A-CVC) have been shown to be cost-effective in preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). However, not all types have been evaluated, and there are concerns over the quality and usefulness of these earlier studies. There is uncertainty amongst clinicians over which, if any, antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters to use. We re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness of all commercially available antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters for prevention of catheter-related bloodstream infection in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: We used a Markov decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters relative to uncoated catheters. Four catheter types were evaluated; minocycline and rifampicin (MR)-coated catheters; silver, platinum and carbon (SPC)-impregnated catheters; and two chlorhexidine and silver sulfadiazine-coated catheters, one coated on the external surface (CH/SSD (ext)) and the other coated on both surfaces (CH/SSD (int/ext)). The incremental cost per qualityadjusted life-year gained and the expected net monetary benefits were estimated for each. Uncertainty arising from data estimates, data quality and heterogeneity was explored in sensitivity analyses. Results: The baseline analysis, with no consideration of uncertainty, indicated all four types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters were cost-saving relative to uncoated catheters. Minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters prevented 15 infections per 1,000 catheters and generated the greatest health benefits, 1.6 quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-savings, AUD $130,289. After considering uncertainty in the current evidence, the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters returned the highest incremental monetary net benefits of $948 per catheter; but there was a 62% probability of error in this conclusion. Although the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters had the highest monetary net benefits across multiple scenarios, the decision was always associated with high uncertainty. Conclusions: Current evidence suggests that the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters within the ICU is highly uncertain. Policies to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infection amongst ICU patients should consider the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions in the light of this uncertainty. Decision makers would do well to consider the current gaps in knowledge and the complexity of producing good quality evidence in this area.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Genotyping of enterococcus faecalis and enterococcus faecium isolates using a set of eight single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)

A SNP genotyping method was developed for E. faecalis and E. faecium using the 'Minimum SNPs' program. SNP sets were interrogated using allele-specific real-time PCR. SNP-typing sub-divided clonal complexes 2 and 9 of E. faecalis and 17 of E. faecium, members of which cause the majority of nosocomial infections globally.

Time-dependent analysis of length of stay and mortality due urinary tract infections in ten developing countries : INICC findings

Catheter associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) are a worldwide problem that may lead to increased patient morbidity, cost and mortality.1e3 The literature is divided on whether there are real effects from CAUTI on length of stay or mortality. Platt4 found the costs and mortality risks to be largeyetGraves et al found the opposite.5 A reviewof the published estimates of the extra length of stay showed results between zero and 30 days.6 The differences in estimates may have been caused by the different epidemiological methods applied. Accurately estimating the effects of CAUTI is difficult because it is a time-dependent exposure. This means that standard statistical techniques, such asmatched case-control studies, tend to overestimate the increased hospital stay and mortality risk due to infection. The aim of the study was to estimate excess length of stay andmortality in an intensive care unit (ICU) due to a CAUTI, using a statistical model that accounts for the timing of infection. Data collected from ICU units in lower and middle income countries were used for this analysis.7,8 There has been little research for these settings, hence the need for this paper.