Performance and gaseous and particle emissions from a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fumigated compression ignition engine

In this study, an LPG fumigation system was fitted to a Euro III compression ignition (CI) engine to explore its impact on performance, and gaseous and particulate emissions. LPG was introduced to the intake air stream (as a secondary fuel) by using a low pressure fuel injector situated upstream of the turbocharger. LPG substitutions were test mode dependent, but varied in the range of 14-29% by energy. The engine was tested over a 5 point test cycle using ultra low sulphur diesel (ULSD), and a low and high LPG substitution at each test mode. The results show that LPG fumigation coerces the combustion into pre-mixed mode, as increases in the peak combustion pressure (and the rate of pressure rise) were observed in most tests. The emissions results show decreases in nitric oxide (NO) and particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions; however, very significant increases in carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions were observed. A more detailed investigation of the particulate emissions showed that the number of particles emitted was reduced with LPG fumigation at all test settings – apart from mode 6 of the ECE R49 test cycle. Furthermore, the particles emitted generally had a slightly larger median diameter with LPG fumigation, and had a smaller semi-volatile fraction relative to ULSD. Overall, the results show that with some modifications, LPG fumigation systems could be used to extend ULSD supplies without adversely impacting on engine performance and emissions.

Characterization of VOCs from LPG and unleaded petroleum fuelled passenger cars

The study monitored the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the exhaust of cars fuelled by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and unleaded petrol (ULP). Six cars, four fuelled by LPG and two by ULP, were tested on a chassis dynamometer at two different cruising modes of operation (60 km h−1 and 80 km h−1) and idle. A total of 33 VOCs were identified in the exhaust of both types of fuels by the use of GC/MS. Due to the complexity of the dataset, Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) software PROMETHEE and GAIA was used to rank the least polluting mode and fuel. The 60 km h−1 driving speed was identified as the cleaner mode of driving as was LPG fuel. The Ozone Formation Potential (OFP) of the VOCs was also calculated by using the incremental reactivity scale. Priority VOCs leading to ozone formation were identified according to the three incremental reactivity scales: MIR, MOIR and EBIR. PROMETHEE was applied to assess the most preferred scale of reactivity for predicting ozone formation potential under different scenarios. The results enhance the understanding of the environmental value of using LPG to power passenger cars.

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Integrated Diagnosis and Prognosis Model for High Pressure LNG Pump

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostics and prognostics are essential tools for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and to predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedules production if necessary. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier for both fault diagnosis and evaluation of health stages of machine degradation. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for multi-class fault diagnosis. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Improved design method for biosecurity surveillance and early detection of non-indigenous rats

A recent advance in biosecurity surveillance design aims to benefit island conservation through early and improved detection of incursions by non-indigenous species. The novel aspects of the design are that it achieves a specified power of detection in a cost-managed system, while acknowledging heterogeneity of risk in the study area and stratifying the area to target surveillance deployment. The design also utilises a variety of surveillance system components, such as formal scientific surveys, trapping methods, and incidental sightings by non-biologist observers. These advances in design were applied to black rats (Rattus rattus) representing the group of invasive rats including R. norvegicus, and R. exulans, which are potential threats to Barrow Island, Australia, a high value conservation nature reserve where a proposed liquefied natural gas development is a potential source of incursions. Rats are important to consider as they are prevalent invaders worldwide, difficult to detect early when present in low numbers, and able to spread and establish relatively quickly after arrival. The ‘exemplar’ design for the black rat is then applied in a manner that enables the detection of a range of non-indigenous species of rat that could potentially be introduced. Many of the design decisions were based on expert opinion as data gaps exist in empirical data. The surveillance system was able to take into account factors such as collateral effects on native species, the availability of limited resources on an offshore island, financial costs, demands on expertise and other logistical constraints. We demonstrate the flexibility and robustness of the surveillance system and discuss how it could be updated as empirical data are collected to supplement expert opinion and provide a basis for adaptive management. Overall, the surveillance system promotes an efficient use of resources while providing defined power to detect early rat incursions, translating to reduced environmental, resourcing and financial costs.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

An exploration of the reasons why adolescents engage in traditional and cyber bullying

This study explored the reasons underlying adolescents’ perceptions of why their peers engage in bullying in the real and the cyber world. While there has been much research on why bullies engage in such behaviour, ranging from personality characteristics to social or familial reasons, the perceptions of young people on the motives of cyberbullies has not been researched. A new instrument, based on interviews and a literature review was piloted to measure young people’s perceptions of why their peers engage in both traditional and cyberbullying behaviour, according to their role in bullying. Four hundred students were surveyed in three co-educational independent secondary schools. A comparison between perceptions of bullies’ motives in traditional and cyberbullying was made. Implications for interventions with bullies are discussed.

Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Radiological aspects of petroleum exploration and production in the sultanate of Oman

This thesis is a study of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) activity concentration, gamma dose rate and radon (222Rn) exhalation from the waste streams of large-scale onshore petroleum operations. Types of activities covered included; sludge recovery from separation tanks, sludge farming, NORM storage, scaling in oil tubulars, scaling in gas production and sedimentation in produced water evaporation ponds. Field work was conducted in the arid desert terrain of an operational oil exploration and production region in the Sultanate of Oman. The main radionuclides found were 226Ra and 210Pb (238U - series), 228Ra and 228Th (232Th - series), and 227Ac (235U - series), along with 40K. All activity concentrations were higher than the ambient soil level and varied over several orders of magnitude. The range of gamma dose rates at a 1 m height above ground for the farm treated sludge had a range of 0.06 0.43 µSv h 1, and an average close to the ambient soil mean of 0.086 ± 0.014 µSv h 1, whereas the untreated sludge gamma dose rates had a range of 0.07 1.78 µSv h 1, and a mean of 0.456 ± 0.303 µSv h 1. The geometric mean of ambient soil 222Rn exhalation rate for area surrounding the sludge was mBq m 2 s 1. Radon exhalation rates reported in oil waste products were all higher than the ambient soil value and varied over three orders of magnitude. This study resulted in some unique findings including: (i) detection of radiotoxic 227Ac in the oil scales and sludge, (ii) need of a new empirical relation between petroleum sludge activity concentrations and gamma dose rates, and (iii) assessment of exhalation of 222Rn from oil sludge. Additionally the study investigated a method to determine oil scale and sludge age by the use of inherent behaviour of radionuclides as 228Ra:226Ra and 228Th:228Ra activity ratios.

Chemical variability of groundwater samples collected from a Coal Seam Gas exploration well, Maramarua, New Zealand

A pilot study has produced 31 groundwater samples from a coal seam gas (CSG) exploration well located in Maramarua, New Zealand. This paper describes sources of CSG water chemistry variations, and makes sampling and analytical recommendations to minimize these variations. The hydrochemical character of these samples is studied using factor analysis, geochemical modelling, and a sparging experiment. Factor analysis unveils carbon dioxide (CO2) degassing as the principal cause of sample variation (about 33%). Geochemical modelling corroborates these results and identifies minor precipitation of carbonate minerals with degassing. The sparging experiment confirms the effect of CO2 degassing by showing a steady rise in pH while maintaining constant alkalinity. Factor analysis correlates variations in the major ion composition (about 17%) to changes in the pumping regime and to aquifer chemistry variations due to cation exchange reactions with argillaceous minerals. An effective CSG water sampling program can be put into practice by measuring pH at the well head and alkalinity at the laboratory; these data can later be used to calculate the carbonate speciation at the time the sample was collected. In addition, TDS variations can be reduced considerably if a correct drying temperature of 180°C is consistently implemented.