298 resultados para infection sensitivity

em Queensland University of Technology - ePrints Archive


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Sexually transmitted chlamydial infection initially establishes in the endocervix in females, but if the infection ascends the genital tract, significant disease, including infertility, can result. Many of the mechanisms associated with chlamydial infection kinetics and disease ascension are unknown. We attempt to elucidate some of these processes by developing a novel mathematical model, using a cellular automata–partial differential equation model. We matched our model outputs to experimental data of chlamydial infection of the guinea-pig cervix and carried out sensitivity analyses to determine the relative influence of model parameters. We found that the rate of recruitment and action of innate immune cells to clear extracellular chlamydial particles and the rate of passive movement of chlamydial particles are the dominant factors in determining the early course of infection, magnitude of the peak chlamydial time course and the time of the peak. The rate of passive movement was found to be the most important factor in determining whether infection would ascend to the upper genital tract. This study highlights the importance of early innate immunity in the control of chlamydial infection and the significance of motility-diffusive properties and the adaptive immune response in the magnitude of infection and in its ascension.

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Determining sensitivity and specificity of a postoperative infection surveillance process is a difficult undertaking. Because postoperative infections are rare, vast numbers of negative results exist, and it is often not reasonable to assess them all. This study gives a methodological framework for estimating sensitivity and specificity by taking only a small sample of the number of patients who test negative and comparing their findings to the reference or “gold standard” rather than comparing the findings of all patients to the gold standard. It provides a formula for deriving confidence intervals for these estimates and a guide to minimum requirements for sampling results.

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Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

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Purpose. The objective of this study was to explore the discriminative capacity of non-contact corneal esthesiometry (NCCE) when compared with the neuropathy disability score (NDS) score—a validated, standard method of diagnosing clinically significant diabetic neuropathy. Methods. Eighty-one participants with type 2 diabetes, no history of ocular disease, trauma, or surgery and no history of systemic disease that may affect the cornea were enrolled. Participants were ineligible if there was history of neuropathy due to non-diabetic cause or current diabetic foot ulcer or infection. Corneal sensitivity threshold was measured on the eye of dominant hand side at a distance of 10 mm from the center of the cornea using a stimulus duration of 0.9 s. The NDS was measured producing a score ranging from 0 to 10. To determine the optimal cutoff point of corneal sensitivity that identified the presence of neuropathy (diagnosed by NDS), the Youden index and “closest-to-(0,1)” criteria were used. Results. The receiver-operator characteristic curve for NCCE for the presence of neuropathy (NDS ≥3) had an area under the curve of 0.73 (p = 0.001) and, for the presence of moderate neuropathy (NDS ≥6), area of 0.71 (p = 0.003). By using the Youden index, for an NDS ≥3, the sensitivity of NCCE was 70% and specificity was 75%, and a corneal sensitivity threshold of 0.66 mbar or higher indicated the presence of neuropathy. When NDS ≥6 (indicating risk of foot ulceration) was applied, the sensitivity was 52% with a specificity of 85%. Conclusions. NCCE is a sensitive test for the diagnosis of minimal and more advanced diabetic neuropathy and may serve as a useful surrogate marker for diabetic and perhaps other neuropathies.

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Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is associated with substantial costs for health services, reduced quality of life, and functional outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of SSI in hip arthroplasty in Australia. Methods: Baseline use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was compared with no antibiotic prophylaxis (no AP), antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP þ ABC), and laminar air operating rooms (AP þ LOR). A Markov model was used to simulate long-term health and cost outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 total hip arthroplasty patients from a health services perspective. Model parameters were informed by the best available evidence. Uncertainty was explored in probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. Results: Stopping the routine use of AP resulted in over Australian dollars (AUD) $1.5 million extra costs and a loss of 163 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Using antibiotic cement in addition to AP (AP þ ABC)generated an extra 32 QALYs while saving over AUD $123,000. The use of laminar air operating rooms combined with routine AP (AP þ LOR) resulted in an AUD $4.59 million cost increase and 127 QALYs lost compared with the baseline comparator. Conclusion: Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalized patients, save lives, and enhance resource allocation. Based on this evidence, the use of laminar air operating rooms is not recommended.

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The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

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Background Animal and human infection with multiple parasite species is the norm rather than the exception, and empirical studies and animal models have provided evidence for a diverse range of interactions among parasites. We demonstrate how an optimal control strategy should be tailored to the pathogen community and tempered by species-level knowledge of drug sensitivity with use of a simple epidemiological model of gastro-intestinal nematodes. Methods We construct a fully mechanistic model of macroparasite co-infection and use it to explore a range of control scenarios involving chemotherapy as well as improvements to sanitation. Results Scenarios are presented whereby control not only releases a more resistant parasite from antagonistic interactions, but risks increasing co-infection rates, exacerbating the burden of disease. In contrast, synergisms between species result in their becoming epidemiologically slaved within hosts, presenting a novel opportunity for controlling drug resistant parasites by targeting co-circulating species. Conclusions Understanding the effects on control of multi-parasite species interactions, and vice versa, is of increasing urgency in the advent of integrated mass intervention programmes.

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Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are appropriate for case management, but persistent antigenaemia is a concern for HRP2-detecting RDTs in endemic areas. It has been suggested that pan-pLDH test bands on combination RDTs could be used to distinguish persistent antigenaemia from active Plasmodium falciparum infection, however this assumes all active infections produce positive results on both bands of RDTs, an assertion that has not been demonstrated. Methods: In this study, data generated during the WHO-FIND product testing programme for malaria RDTs was reviewed to investigate the reactivity of individual test bands against P. falciparum in 18 combination RDTs. Each product was tested against multiple wild-type P. falciparum only samples. Antigen levels were measured by quantitative ELISA for HRP2, pLDH and aldolase. Results: When tested against P. falciparum samples at 200 parasites/μL, 92% of RDTs were positive; 57% of these on both the P. falciparum and pan bands, while 43% were positive on the P. falciparum band only. There was a relationship between antigen concentration and band positivity; ≥4 ng/mL of HRP2 produced positive results in more than 95% of P. falciparum bands, while ≥45 ng/mL of pLDH was required for at least 90% of pan bands to be positive. Conclusions: In active P. falciparum infections it is common for combination RDTs to return a positive HRP2 band combined with a negative pan-pLDH band, and when both bands are positive, often the pan band is faint. Thus active infections could be missed if the presence of a HRP2 band in the absence of a pan band is interpreted as being caused solely by persistent antigenaemia.

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Epigenetic changes correspond to heritable modifications of the chromatin structure, which do not involve any alteration of the DNA sequence but nonetheless affect gene expression. These mechanisms play an important role in cell differentiation, but aberrant occurrences are also associated with a number of diseases, including cancer and neural development disorders. In particular, aberrant DNA methylation induced by H. Pylori has been found to be a significant risk factor in gastric cancer. To investigate the sensitivity of different genes and cell types to this infection, a computational model of methylation in gastric crypts is developed. In this article, we review existing results from physical experiments and outline their limitations, before presenting the computational model and investigating the influence of its parameters.

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Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

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Australian mosquitoes from which Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) has been recovered (Culex annulirostris, Culex gelidus, and Aedes vigilax) were assessed for their ability to be infected with the ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, with yellow fever vaccine virus 17D (YF 17D) from which the backbone of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine is derived and with JEV-Nakayama. None of the mosquitoes became infected after being fed orally with 6.1 log(10) plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, which is greater than the peak viremia in vaccinees (mean peak viremia = 4.8 PFU/mL, range = 0-30 PFU/mL of 0.9 days mean duration, range = 0-11 days). Some members of all three species of mosquito became infected when fed on JEV-Nakayama, but only Ae. vigilax was infected when fed on YF 17D. The results suggest that none of these three species of mosquito are likely to set up secondary cycles of transmission of ChimeriVax-JE in Australia after feeding on a viremic vaccinee.