The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis. Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data. Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections. Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

Environmental health risk assessment of dioxin exposure through foods in a Dioxin hot spot—Bien Hoa City, Vietnam

This study used the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework to assess the human health risk of dioxin exposure through foods for local residents in two wards of Bien Hoa City, Vietnam. These wards are known hot-spots for dioxin and a range of stakeholders from central government to local levels were involved in this process. Publications on dioxin characteristics and toxicity were reviewed and dioxin concentrations in local soil, mud, foods, milk and blood samples were used as data for this risk assessment. A food frequency survey of 400 randomly selected households in these wards was conducted to provide data for exposure assessment. Results showed that local residents who had consumed locally cultivated foods, especially fresh water fish and bottom-feeding fish, free-ranging chicken, duck, and beef were at a very high risk, with their daily dioxin intake far exceeding the tolerable daily intake recommended by the WHO. Based on the results of this assessment, a multifaceted risk management program was developed and has been recognized as the first public health program ever to have been implemented in Vietnam to reduce the risks of dioxin exposure at dioxin hot-spots.

Maternal exposure to ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia

Almost 10% of all births are preterm and 2.2% are stillbirths globally. Recent research has suggested that environmental factors may be a contributory cause to these adverse birth outcomes. The authors examined the relationship between ambient temperature and preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia between 2005 and 2009 (n = 101,870). They used a Cox proportional hazard model with live birth and stillbirth as competing risks. They also examined if there were periods of the pregnancy where exposure to high temperatures had a greater effect. Exposure to higher ambient temperatures during pregnancy increased the risk of stillbirth. The hazard ratio for stillbirth was 0.3 at 12 °C relative to the reference temperature at 21 °C. The temperature effect was greatest for fetuses of less than 36 weeks of gestation. There was an association between higher temperature and shorter gestation, as the hazard ratio for live birth was 0.96 at 15 °C and 1.02 at 25 °C. This effect was greatest at later gestational ages. The results provide strong evidence of an association between increased temperature and increased risk of stillbirth and shorter gestations.

A case-control study of ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company, Guangzhou, China

Higher ambient temperatures will increase heat stress on workers, leading to impacts upon their individual health and productivity. In particular, research has indicated that higher ambient temperatures can increase the prevalence of urolithiasis. This thesis examines the relationship between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a shipbuilding company in Guangzhou, China, and makes recommendations for minimising the possible impacts of high ambient temperatures on urolithiasis. A retrospective 1:4 matched case-control study was performed to investigate the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis. Ambient heat exposure was characterised by total exposure time, type of work, department and length of service. The data were obtained from the affiliated hospital of the shipbuilding company under study for the period 2003 to 2010. A conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between heat exposure and urolithiasis. This study found that the odds ratio (OR) of urolithiasis for total exposure time was 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–1.8). Eight types of work in the shipbuilding company were investigated, including welder, assembler, production security and quality inspector, planing machine operator, spray painter, gas-cutting worker and indoor employee. Five out of eight types of work had significantly higher risks for urolithiasis, and four of the five mainly consisted of outdoors work with ORs of 4.4 (95% CI: 1.7–11.4) for spray painter, 3.8 (95% CI: 1.9–7.2) for welder, 2.7 (95% CI: 1.4–5.0) for production security and quality inspector, and 2.2 (95% CI: 1.1–4.3) for assembler, compared to the reference group (indoor employee). Workers with abnormal blood pressure (hypertension) were more likely to have urolithiasis with an OR of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0–2.5) compared to those without hypertension. This study contributes to the understanding of the association between ambient heat exposure and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in China. In the context of global climate change, this is particularly important because rising temperatures are expected to increase the prevalence of urolithiasis among outdoor workers, putting greater pressure on productivity, occupational health management and health care systems. The results of this study have clear implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that more attention is required to protect outdoor workers from heat-related urolithiasis.

Risks of Carbon Fraud

Carbon credit markets are in the early stages of development and media headlines such as these illustrate emerging levels of concern and foreboding over the potential for fraudulent crime within these markets. Australian companies are continuing to venture into the largely unregulated voluntary carbon credit market to offset their emissions and / or give their customers the opportunity to be ‘carbon neutral’. Accordingly, the voluntary market has seen a proliferation of carbon brokers that offer tailored offset carbon products according to need and taste. With the instigation of the Australian compliance market and with pressure increasing for political responses to combat climate change, we would expect Australian companies to experience greater exposure to carbon products in both compliance and voluntary markets. This paper examines the risks of carbon fraud in these markets by reviewing cases of actual fraud and analysing and identifying contexts where risks of carbon fraud are most likely.

Indoor aerosols : from personal exposure to risk assessment

Motivated by growing considerations of the scale, severity and risks associated with human exposure to indoor particulate matter, this work reviewed existing literature to: (i) identify state-of-the-art experimental techniques used for personal exposure assessment; (ii) compare exposure levels reported for domestic/school settings in different countries (excluding exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and particulate matter from biomass cooking in developing countries); (iii) assess the contribution of outdoor background vs indoor sources to personal exposure; and (iv) examine scientific understanding of the risks posed by personal exposure to indoor aerosols. Limited studies assessing integrated daily residential exposure to just one particle size fraction, ultrafine particles, show that the contribution of indoor sources ranged from 19-76%. This indicates a strong dependence on resident activities, source events and site specificity, and highlights the importance of indoor sources for total personal exposure. Further, it was assessed that 10-30% of the total burden-of-disease from particulate matter exposure was due to indoor generated particles, signifying that indoor environments are likely to be a dominant environmental factor affecting human health. However, due to challenges associated with conducting epidemiological assessments, the role of indoor generated particles has not been fully acknowledged, and improved exposure/risk assessment methods are still needed, together with a serious focus on exposure control.

A methodology for estimating exposure-controlled crash risk using traffic Police crash data

Exposure control or case-control methodologies are common techniques for estimating crash risks, however they require either observational data on control cases or exogenous exposure data, such as vehicle-kilometres travelled. This study proposes an alternative methodology for estimating crash risk of road user groups, whilst controlling for exposure under a variety of roadway, traffic and environmental factors by using readily available police-reported crash data. In particular, the proposed method employs a combination of a log-linear model and quasi-induced exposure technique to identify significant interactions among a range of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions to estimate associated crash risks. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a set of police-reported crash data from January 2004 to June 2009 on roadways in Queensland, Australia. Exposure-controlled crash risks of motorcyclists—involved in multi-vehicle crashes at intersections—were estimated under various combinations of variables like posted speed limit, intersection control type, intersection configuration, and lighting condition. Results show that the crash risk of motorcycles at three-legged intersections is high if the posted speed limits along the approaches are greater than 60 km/h. The crash risk at three-legged intersections is also high when they are unsignalized. Dark lighting conditions appear to increase the crash risk of motorcycles at signalized intersections, but the problem of night time conspicuity of motorcyclists at intersections is lessened on approaches with lower speed limits. This study demonstrates that this combined methodology is a promising tool for gaining new insights into the crash risks of road user groups, and is transferrable to other road users.

Measuring exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation using a dosimetric technique : understanding participant compliance issues

Personal ultraviolet dosimeters have been used in epidemiological studies to understand the risks and benefits of individuals' exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR). We investigated the types and determinants of non-compliance associated with a protocol for use of polysulphone UVR dosimeters. In the AusD Study, 1,002 Australian adults (aged 18-75 years) were asked to wear a new dosimeter on their wrist each day for 10 consecutive days to quantify their daily exposure to solar UVR. Of the 10,020 dosimeters distributed, 296 (3%) were not returned or used (Type I non-compliance) and other usage errors were reported for 763 (8%) returned dosimeters (Type II non-compliance). Type I errors were more common in participants with predominantly outdoor occupations. Type II errors were reported more frequently on the first day of measurement; weekend days or rainy days; and among females; younger people; more educated participants or those with outdoor occupations. Half (50%) the participants reported a non-compliance error on at least one day during the 10-day period. However, 92% of participants had at least 7 days of usable data without any apparent non-compliance issues. The factors identified should be considered when designing future UVR dosimetry studies.

Ultrafine particle emission of waste incinerators and comparison to the exposure of urban citizens

On the basis of the growing interest on the impact of airborne particles on human exposure as well as the strong debate in Western countries on the emissions of waste incinerators, this work reviewed existing literature to: (i) show the emission factors of ultrafine particles (particles with a diameter less than 100 nm) of waste incinerators, and; (ii) assess the contribution of waste incinerators in terms of ultrafine particles to exposure and dose of people living in the surrounding areas of the plants in order to estimate eventual risks. The review identified only a limited number of studies measuring ultrafine particle emissions, and in general they report low particle number concentrations at the stack (the median value was equal to 5.5×103 part cm-3), in most cases higher than the outdoor background value. The lowest emissions were achieved by utilization of the bag-house filter which has an overall number-based filtration efficiency higher than 99%. Referring to reference case, the corresponding emission factor is equal to 9.1×1012 part min-1, that is lower than one single high-duty vehicle. Since the higher particle number concentrations found in the most contributing microenvironments to the exposure (indoor home, transportation, urban outdoor), the contribution of the waste incinerators to the daily dose can be considered as negligible.

Mining process risks and resource profiles

This research contributes novel techniques for identifying and evaluating business process risks and analysing human resource behaviour. The developed techniques use predefined indicators to identify process risks in individual process instances, evaluate overall process risk, predict process outcomes and analyse human resource behaviour based on the analysis of information about process executions recorded in event logs by information systems. The results of this research can help managers to more accurately evaluate the risk exposure of their business processes, to more objectively evaluate the performance of their employees, and to identify opportunities for improvement of resource and process performance.

Engineered nanomaterials: Knowledge gaps in fate, exposure, toxicity, and future directions

The aim of this study is to identify current knowledge gaps in fate, exposure, and toxicity of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), highlight research gaps, and suggest future research directions. Humans and other living organisms are exposed to ENMs during production or use of products containing them. To assess the hazards of ENMs, it is important to assess their physiochemical properties and try to relate them to any observed hazard. However, the full determination of these relationships is currently limited by the lack of empirical data. Moreover, most toxicity studies do not use realistic environmental exposure conditions for determining dose-response parameters, affecting the accurate estimation of health risks associated with the exposure to ENMs. Regulatory aspects of nanotechnology are still developing and are currently the subject of much debate. Synthesis of available studies suggests a number of open questions. These include (i) developing a combination of different analytical methods for determining ENM concentration, size, shape, surface properties, and morphology in different environmental media, (ii) conducting toxicity studies using environmentally relevant exposure conditions and obtaining data relevant to developing quantitative nanostructure-toxicity relationships (QNTR), and (iii) developing guidelines for regulating exposure of ENMs in the environment.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Comparing population attributable risks for heart disease across the adult lifespan in women

Background Recent estimates suggest that high body mass index (BMI), smoking, high blood pressure (BP) and physical inactivity are leading risk factors for the overall burden of disease in Australia. The aim was to examine the population attributable risk (PAR) of heart disease for each of these risk factors, across the adult lifespan in Australian women. Methods PARs were estimated using relative risks (RRs) for each of the four risk factors, as used in the Global Burden of Disease Study, and prevalence estimates from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, in 15 age groups from 22–27 (N=9608) to 85–90 (N=3901). Results RRs and prevalence estimates varied across the lifespan. RRs ranged from 6.15 for smoking in the younger women to 1.20 for high BMI and high BP in the older women. Prevalence of risk exposure ranged from 2% for high BP in the younger women to 79% for high BMI in mid-age women. In young adult women up to age 30, the highest population risk was attributed to smoking. From age 31 to 90, PARs were highest for physical inactivity. Conclusions From about age 30, the population risk of heart disease attributable to inactivity outweighs that of other risk factors, including high BMI. Programmes for the promotion and maintenance of physical activity deserve to be a much higher public health priority for women than they are now, across the adult lifespan.