Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

The use of economic evaluation in CAM : an introductory framework

Background For CAM to feature prominently in health care decision-making there is a need to expand the evidence-base and to further incorporate economic evaluation into research priorities. In a world of scarce health care resources and an emphasis on efficiency and clinical efficacy, CAM, as indeed do all other treatments, requires rigorous evaluation to be considered in budget decision-making. Methods Economic evaluation provides the tools to measure the costs and health consequences of CAM interventions and thereby inform decision making. This article offers CAM researchers an introductory framework for understanding, undertaking and disseminating economic evaluation. The types of economic evaluation available for the study of CAM are discussed, and decision modelling is introduced as a method for economic evaluation with much potential for use in CAM. Two types of decision models are introduced, decision trees and Markov models, along with a worked example of how each method is used to examine costs and health consequences. This is followed by a discussion of how this information is used by decision makers. Conclusions Undoubtedly, economic evaluation methods form an important part of health care decision making. Without formal training it can seem a daunting task to consider economic evaluation, however, multidisciplinary teams provide an opportunity for health economists, CAM practitioners and other interested researchers, to work together to further develop the economic evaluation of CAM.

Technology transfer evaluation in the high technology industry : an interdisciplinary perspective

The underlying objective of this study was to develop a novel approach to evaluate the potential for commercialisation of a new technology. More specifically, this study examined the 'ex-ante'. evaluation of the technology transfer process. For this purpose, a technology originating from the high technology sector was used. The technology relates to the application of software for the detection of weak signals from space, which is an established method of signal processing in the field of radio astronomy. This technology has the potential to be used in commercial and industrial areas other than astronomy, such as detecting water leakages in pipes. Its applicability to detecting water leakage was chosen owing to several problems with detection in the industry as well as the impact it can have on saving water in the environment. This study, therefore, will demonstrate the importance of interdisciplinary technology transfer. The study employed both technical and business evaluation methods including laboratory experiments and the Delphi technique to address the research questions. There are several findings from this study. Firstly, scientific experiments were conducted and these resulted in a proof of concept stage of the chosen technology. Secondly, validation as well as refinement of criteria from literature that can be used for „ex-ante. evaluation of technology transfer has been undertaken. Additionally, after testing the chosen technology.s overall transfer potential using the modified set of criteria, it was found that the technology is still in its early stages and will require further development for it to be commercialised. Furthermore, a final evaluation framework was developed encompassing all the criteria found to be important. This framework can help in assessing the overall readiness of the technology for transfer as well as in recommending a viable mechanism for commercialisation. On the whole, the commercial potential of the chosen technology was tested through expert opinion, thereby focusing on the impact of a new technology and the feasibility of alternate applications and potential future applications.

Lean supply chain performance evaluation method

Increasing global competitiveness worldwide has forced manufacturing organizations to produce high-quality products more quickly and at a competitive cost which demand of continuous improvements techniques. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy based performance evaluation method for lean supply chain. To understand the overall performance of cost competitive supply chain, we investigate the alignment of market strategy and position of the supply chain. Competitive strategies can be achieved by using a different weight calculation for different supply chain situations. By identifying optimal performance metrics and applying performance evaluation methods, managers can predict the overall supply chain performance under lean strategy.

Meta-evaluation to improve learning, evaluation capacity development and sustainability : Findings from a participatory evaluation project in Nepal

Recent studies suggest that meta-evaluation can be valuable in developing new approaches to evaluation, building evaluation capacities, and enhancing organizational learning. These new extensions of the concept of meta-evaluation are significant, given the growing emphasis on improving the quality and effectiveness of evaluation practices in the South Asian region. Following a review of the literature, this paper presents a case study of the use of concurrent meta-evaluation in the four-year project Assessing Communication for Social Change which developed and trialled a participatory impact assessment methodology in collaboration with a development communication Non-government organization (NGO) in Nepal. Key objectives of the meta-evaluation included to: continuously develop, adapt and improve the impact assessment methodology, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) systems and process and other project activities; identify impacts of the project; and build capacities in critical reflection and review. Our analysis indicates that this meta-evaluation was essential to understanding various constraints related to the organizational context that affected the success of the project and the development of improved M&E systems and capacities within the NGO. We identified several limitations of our meta-evaluation methods, which were balanced by the strengths of other methods. Our case study suggests that as well as assessing the quality, credibility and value of evaluation practices, meta-evaluations need to focus on important contextual issues that can have significant impacts on the outcomes of participatory evaluation projects. They include hierarchical organizational cultures, communication barriers, power/knowledge relations, and the time and resources available. Meta-evaluations also need to consider wider issues such as the sustainability of evaluation systems and approaches.

Cost effectiveness of patient education for the prevention of falls in hospital : economic evaluation from a randomized controlled trial

Background Falls are one of the most frequently occurring adverse events that impact upon the recovery of older hospital inpatients. Falls can threaten both immediate and longer-term health and independence. There is need to identify cost-effective means for preventing falls in hospitals. Hospital-based falls prevention interventions tested in randomized trials have not yet been subjected to economic evaluation. Methods Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken from the health service provider perspective, over the period of hospitalization (time horizon) using the Australian Dollar (A$) at 2008 values. Analyses were based on data from a randomized trial among n = 1,206 acute and rehabilitation inpatients. Decision tree modeling with three-way sensitivity analyses were conducted using burden of disease estimates developed from trial data and previous research. The intervention was a multimedia patient education program provided with trained health professional follow-up shown to reduce falls among cognitively intact hospital patients. Results The short-term cost to a health service of one cognitively intact patient being a faller could be as high as A$14,591 (2008). The education program cost A$526 (2008) to prevent one cognitively intact patient becoming a faller and A$294 (2008) to prevent one fall based on primary trial data. These estimates were unstable due to high variability in the hospital costs accrued by individual patients involved in the trial. There was a 52% probability the complete program was both more effective and less costly (from the health service perspective) than providing usual care alone. Decision tree modeling sensitivity analyses identified that when provided in real life contexts, the program would be both more effective in preventing falls among cognitively intact inpatients and cost saving where the proportion of these patients who would otherwise fall under usual care conditions is at least 4.0%. Conclusions This economic evaluation was designed to assist health care providers decide in what circumstances this intervention should be provided. If the proportion of cognitively intact patients falling on a ward under usual care conditions is 4% or greater, then provision of the complete program in addition to usual care will likely both prevent falls and reduce costs for a health service.

Course evaluation : reconfigurations for learning with learning management systems

The introduction of online delivery platforms such as learning management systems (LMS) in tertiary education has changed the methods and modes of curriculum delivery and communication. While course evaluation methods have also changed from paper-based in-class-administered methods to largely online-administered methods, the data collection instruments have remained unchanged. This paper reports on a small exploratory study of two tertiary-level courses. The study investigated why design of the instruments and methods to administer surveys in the courses are ineffective measures against the intrinsic characteristics of online learning. It reviewed the students' response rates of the conventional evaluations for the courses over an eight-year period. It then compared a newly developed online evaluation and the conventional methods over a two-year period. The results showed the response rates with the new evaluation method increased by more than 80% from the average of the conventional evaluations (below 30%), and the students' written feedback was more detailed and comprehensive than in the conventional evaluations. The study demonstrated the possibility that the LMS-based learning evaluation can be effective and efficient in terms of the quality of students' participation and engagement in their learning, and for an integrated pedagogical approach in an online learning environment.

Sensitivity of the lane change test as a measure of in-vehicle system demand

The Lane Change Test (LCT) is one of the growing number of methods developed to quantify driving performance degradation brought about by the use of in-vehicle devices. Beyond its validity and reliability, for such a test to be of practical use, it must also be sensitive to the varied demands of individual tasks. The current study evaluated the ability of several recent LCT lateral control and event detection parameters to discriminate between visual-manual and cognitive surrogate In-Vehicle Information System tasks with different levels of demand. Twenty-seven participants (mean age 24.4 years) completed a PC version of the LCT while performing visual search and math problem solving tasks. A number of the lateral control metrics were found to be sensitive to task differences, but the event detection metrics were less able to discriminate between tasks. The mean deviation and lane excursion measures were able to distinguish between the visual and cognitive tasks, but were less sensitive to the different levels of task demand. The other LCT metrics examined were less sensitive to task differences. A major factor influencing the sensitivity of at least some of the LCT metrics could be the type of lane change instructions given to participants. The provision of clear and explicit lane change instructions and further refinement of its metrics will be essential for increasing the utility of the LCT as an evaluation tool.

Exploring retinal and functional markers of diabetic neuropathy

Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) is one of the most debilitating complications of diabetes. DPN is a major cause of foot ulceration and lower limb amputation. Early diagnosis and management is a key factor in reducing morbidity and mortality. Current techniques for clinical assessment of DPN are relatively insensitive for detecting early disease or involve invasive procedures such as skin biopsies. There is a need for less painful, non-invasive and safe evaluation methods. Eye care professionals already play an important role in the management of diabetic retinopathy; however recent studies have indicated that the eye may also be an important site for the diagnosis and monitoring of neuropathy. Corneal nerve morphology has been shown to be a promising marker of diabetic neuropathy occurring elsewhere in the body, and emerging evidence tentatively suggests that retinal anatomical markers and a range of functional visual indicators could similarly provide useful information regarding neural damage in diabetes – although this line of research is, as yet, less well established. This review outlines the growing body of evidence supporting a potential diagnostic role for retinal structure and visual functional markers in the diagnosis and monitoring of peripheral neuropathy in diabetes.

The effectiveness of cross-lingual link discovery

This paper describes the evaluation in benchmarking the effectiveness of cross-lingual link discovery (CLLD). Cross lingual link discovery is a way of automatically finding prospective links between documents in different languages, which is particularly helpful for knowledge discovery of different language domains. A CLLD evaluation framework is proposed for system performance benchmarking. The framework includes standard document collections, evaluation metrics, and link assessment and evaluation tools. The evaluation methods described in this paper have been utilised to quantify the system performance at NTCIR-9 Crosslink task. It is shown that using the manual assessment for generating gold standard can deliver a more reliable evaluation result.

Emerging from student to practitioner : a cumulative development tool for students

PURPOSE: This pilot project’s aim was to trial a tool and process for developing students’ ability to engage in self-assessment using reflection on their clinical experiences, including feedback from workplace learning, in order to aid them in linking theory to practice and develop strategies to improve performance. BACKGROUND: In nursing education, students can experience a mismatch in performance compared to theoretical learning, this is referred to as the ‘theory practice gap’ (Scully 2011, Chan Chan & Liu 2011). One specific contributing factor seems to be students’ inability to engage in meaningful reflection and self-correcting behaviours. A self-assessment strategy was implemented within a third year clinical unit to ameliorate this mismatch with encouraging results, as students developed self-direction in addressing learning needs. In this pilot project the above strategy was adapted for implementation between different clinical units, to create a whole of course approach to integrating workplace learning. METHOD: The methodology underpinning this project is a scaffolded, supported reflective practice process. Improved self-assessment skills is achieved by students reflecting on and engaging with feedback, then mapping this to learning outcomes to identify where performance can be improved. Evaluation of this project includes: collation of student feedback identifying successful strategies along with barriers encountered in implementation; feedback from students and teachers via above processes and tools; and comparison of the number of learning contracts issued in clinical nursing units with similar cohorts. RESULTS: Results will be complete by May 2012 and include analysis of the data collected via the above evaluation methods. Other outcomes will include the refined process and tool, plus resources that should improve cost effectiveness without reducing student support. CONCLUSION: Implementing these tools and processes over the entire student’s learning package, will assist them to demonstrate progressive development through the course. Students will have learnt to understand feedback and integrate these skills for life-long learning.

Overview of the INEX 2011 relevance feedback track

The INEX 2011 Relevance Feedback track offered a refined approach to the evaluation of Focused Relevance Feedback algorithms through simulated exhaustive user feedback. Run in largely identical fashion to the Relevance Feedback track in INEX 2010[2], we simulated a user-in-the loop by re-using the assessments of ad-hoc retrieval obtained from real users who assess focused ad-hoc retrieval submissions. We present the evaluation methodology, its implementation, and experimental results obtained for four submissions from two participating organisations. As the task and evaluation methods did not change between INEX 2010 and now, explanations of these details from the INEX 2010 version of the track have been repeated verbatim where appropriate.

Link discovery for Chinese/English cross-language web information retrieval

Nowadays people heavily rely on the Internet for information and knowledge. Wikipedia is an online multilingual encyclopaedia that contains a very large number of detailed articles covering most written languages. It is often considered to be a treasury of human knowledge. It includes extensive hypertext links between documents of the same language for easy navigation. However, the pages in different languages are rarely cross-linked except for direct equivalent pages on the same subject in different languages. This could pose serious difficulties to users seeking information or knowledge from different lingual sources, or where there is no equivalent page in one language or another. In this thesis, a new information retrieval task—cross-lingual link discovery (CLLD) is proposed to tackle the problem of the lack of cross-lingual anchored links in a knowledge base such as Wikipedia. In contrast to traditional information retrieval tasks, cross language link discovery algorithms actively recommend a set of meaningful anchors in a source document and establish links to documents in an alternative language. In other words, cross-lingual link discovery is a way of automatically finding hypertext links between documents in different languages, which is particularly helpful for knowledge discovery in different language domains. This study is specifically focused on Chinese / English link discovery (C/ELD). Chinese / English link discovery is a special case of cross-lingual link discovery task. It involves tasks including natural language processing (NLP), cross-lingual information retrieval (CLIR) and cross-lingual link discovery. To justify the effectiveness of CLLD, a standard evaluation framework is also proposed. The evaluation framework includes topics, document collections, a gold standard dataset, evaluation metrics, and toolkits for run pooling, link assessment and system evaluation. With the evaluation framework, performance of CLLD approaches and systems can be quantified. This thesis contributes to the research on natural language processing and cross-lingual information retrieval in CLLD: 1) a new simple, but effective Chinese segmentation method, n-gram mutual information, is presented for determining the boundaries of Chinese text; 2) a voting mechanism of name entity translation is demonstrated for achieving a high precision of English / Chinese machine translation; 3) a link mining approach that mines the existing link structure for anchor probabilities achieves encouraging results in suggesting cross-lingual Chinese / English links in Wikipedia. This approach was examined in the experiments for better, automatic generation of cross-lingual links that were carried out as part of the study. The overall major contribution of this thesis is the provision of a standard evaluation framework for cross-lingual link discovery research. It is important in CLLD evaluation to have this framework which helps in benchmarking the performance of various CLLD systems and in identifying good CLLD realisation approaches. The evaluation methods and the evaluation framework described in this thesis have been utilised to quantify the system performance in the NTCIR-9 Crosslink task which is the first information retrieval track of this kind.