Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: The risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking

We review the literature on the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction. Previous approaches have focussed on separate tests for an additive or multiplicative relation. We extend these approaches by exploring the strength of evidence for either relation using approaches which allow the data to choose between both models. We then compare the different approaches.

A geographical analysis of the role of water supply and sanitation in the risk of helminth infections of children in West Africa

Background We investigated the geographical variation of water supply and sanitation indicators (WS&S) and their role to the risk of schistosomiasis and hookworm infection in school age children in West Africa. The aim was to predict large-scale geographical variation in WS&S, quantify the attributable risk of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infections due to WS&S and identify communities where sustainable transmission control could be targeted across the region. Methods National cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys were conducted in 24,542 households in Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali, in 2003–2006. We generated spatially-explicit predictions of areas without piped water, toilet facilities and finished floors in West Africa, adjusting for household covariates. Using recently published helminth prevalence data we developed Bayesian geostatistical models (MGB) of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infection in West Africa including environmental and the mapped outputs for WS&S. Using these models we estimated the effect of WS&S on parasite risk, quantified their attributable fraction of infection, and mapped the risk of infection in West Africa. Findings Our maps show that most areas in West Africa are very poorly served by water supply except in major urban centers. There is a better geographical coverage for toilet availability and improved household flooring. We estimated smaller attributable risks for water supply in S. mansoni (47%) compared to S. haematobium (71%), and 5% of hookworm cases could be averted by improving sanitation. Greater levels of inadequate sanitation increased the risk of schistosomiasis, and increased levels of unsafe water supply increased the risk of hookworm. The role of floor type for S. haematobium infection (21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (86%). S. haematobium and hookworm maps accounting for WS&S show small clusters of maximal prevalence areas in areas bordering Burkina Faso and Mali smaller. The map of S. mansoni shows that this parasite is much more wide spread across the north of the Niger River basin than previously predicted. Interpretation Our maps identify areas where the Millennium Development Goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. Our results show that WS&S are important contributors to the burden of major helminth infections of children in West Africa. Including information about WS&S as well as the “traditional” environmental risk factors in spatial models of helminth risk yielded a substantial gain both in model fit and at explaining the proportion of spatial variance in helminth risk. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WS&S allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where integrative preventive chemotherapy and engineering interventions will yield the greatest public health benefits.

The role of gender and framing in shaping community activists' perceptions of environmental risks

campaign to oppose projects proposed in their local community. The social constructionist perspective advocates that these motivations are driven by activists’ interpretation of reality, such that activists will assign multiple meanings to and frame environmental issues in a way that reflects their view of reality. Past research suggest that these are also influenced by patterns of shared meaning and interpretation that develop over time in protest movements that shape activists’ perceptions of the environmental risks and impacts associated with construction activity. This paper explores the role of gender distinctions in shaping perceptions of environmental risk and how this affects their framing of the environmental, social, cultural/ historical impacts associated with a construction project. Using Snow and Benford’s (1988) 3-prong analytical tool for framing: diagnostic framing, prognostic framing and motivational framing, this paper presents findings from the content analysis of in-depth interviews of 24 activists protesting against a highly controversial housing project in the greater Sydney metropolitan area. The research adopts a single case study approach, and is particularly significant as it investigates an extensive and on-going community-based protest campaign (dating back almost 20 years) that has generated the longest standing 24-hour community picket in Australia.

Community protest groups' perceptions of environmental risks using social contagion theory

Local communities are vulnerable to the potential environmental risks associated with construction activity. Currently, little is understood about how perceptions of environmental risks are shaped and spread within a community. A better understanding of this process can help bridge the gap between developers and communities and bring about more sustainable development practices. This paper reports a research methodology which uses social contagion theory to investigate this process. The research adopts a single case study approach of a highly controversial housing project in the greater Sydney metropolitan area. The case study is particularly significant as it investigates an extensive and on-going community-based protest campaign (dating back almost 20 years) that has generated the longest standing 24 hour community picket in the New South Wales.

Environmental exposures : an underrecognized contribution to noncommunicable diseases

Previous attempts to determine the degree to which exposure to environmental factors contribute to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) have been very conservative and have significantly underestimated the actual contribution of the environment for at least two reasons. Firstly, most previous reports have excluded the contribution of lifestyle behavioral risk factors, but these usually involve significant exposure to environmental chemicals that increase risk of disease. Secondly, early life exposure to chemical contaminants is now clearly associated with an elevated risk of several diseases later in life, but these connections are often difficult to discern. This is especially true for asthma and neurodevelopmental conditions, but there is also a major contribution to the development of obesity and chronic diseases. Most cancers are caused by environmental exposures in genetically susceptible individuals. In addition, new information shows significant associations between cardiovascular diseases and diabetes and exposure to environmental chemicals present in air, food, and water. These relationships likely reflect the combination of epigenetic effects and gene induction. Environmental factors contribute significantly more to NCDs than previous reports have suggested. Prevention needs to shift focus from individual responsibility to societal responsibility and an understanding that effective prevention of NCDs ultimately relies on improved environmental management to reduce exposure to modifiable risks.

Environmental contributions to the leading causes of disease burden among Australian children

Although the effect of adverse environments on the well-being of children is an important global health issue, it remains underrecognized in health care and underconsidered in terms of both research and public policy. Children have developmentally distinct patterns of environmental exposure and susceptibilities that increase their risk of disease. Young children, especially those who are impoverished, have disproportionately heavier exposures to environmental threats in a given environment. They also have decreased metabolic capacity to detoxify and eliminate contaminants. Furthermore, rapid growth and development before and after birth and the continuing growth and postnatal maturation of the respiratory, immune, and neurological systems, in particular, make them increasingly vulnerable to environmental threats...

Environmental contributions to childhood cancers

Recent increases in incidence of childhood cancers cannot be explained by genetic factors. Identifying the environmental risk factors that may explain increases in cancer incidence is an important step to reduce the overall burden of disease. The risk factors for which the most evidence exists include ionising radiation, ultraviolet radiation and chemicals such as benzene and pesticides, biological agents as well as parental smoking and parental substance use. Regarding the link between exposure to non-ionising radiation and development of cancer, the evidence was limited. Maternal vitamin supplementation may reduce the risk of cancer in offspring. Environmental exposures encountered during development and early childhood may be even more important contributors to the risk of cancer than exposures in adulthood and the early developmental period presents an important opportunity for cancer prevention.

Environmental contributions to autism: Explaining the rise in incidence of autistic spectrum disorders

The incidence of autism spectrum disorders, a heterogenous group of neurodevelopmental disorders is increasing. In response, there has been a concerted effort by researchers to identify environmental risk factors that explain the epidemiological changes seen with autism. Advanced parental age, maternal migrant status, maternal gestational stress, pregnancy and birth complications, maternal obesity and gestational diabetes, maternal vitamin D deficiency, use of antidepressants during gestation and exposure to organochlorine pesticides during pregnancy are all associated with an increased risk of autism. Folic acid use prior to pregnancy may reduce the risk of autism. Exposure to antenatal ultrasonography, maternal gestational cigarette and alcohol use do not appear to influence the risk of autism in offspring. There is little evidence that exposure to environmental toxins such as thimerosal, polybrominated diphenyl ethers and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate in early childhood increases the risk of autism. Apart from birth complications, the current evidence suggests that the majority of environmental factors increasing the risk of autism occur in the antenatal period. Consistent with the rise in incidence in autism, some of these environmental factors are now more common in developed nations. Further research is required to determine how these environmental exposures translate to an increased risk of autism. Understanding how these exposures alter neurodevelopment in autistic children may inform both the aetiopathogenesis and the strategies for prevention of autism.

Critical risk factors affecting the implementation of PPP waste-to-energy projects in China

Since 2003, Mainland China has been promoting the public–private partnership (PPP) procurement model in the waste-to-energy incineration sector to reduce the waste burying rate and improve environmental quality. Five critical risk factors (CRFs) that affect the construction and operation of waste-to-energy incineration projects have been identified from real-life risk events of 14 PPP waste-to-energy incineration plants through content analysis. These risk factors are insufficient waste supply, disposal of non-licensed waste, environmental risk, payment risk, and lack of supporting infrastructure. A recently completed PPP waste-to-energy incineration plant, the Shanghai Tianma project, was investigated to learn from the effective management of CRFs. First-hand data about the Shanghai Tianma project was collected, with a focus on project negotiation and concession agreement. Lessons learned about risk management were acquired. This paper presents a detailed study of the contractual structure, risk sharing scheme, risk response measures to CRFs, and project transfer of a PPP project. The study results will provide governments with management implications to prepare equitable concession agreements and benefit private investors by effectively mitigating and managing risks in future PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.

Latent variable models in statistical genetics

Understanding the complexities that are involved in the genetics of multifactorial diseases is still a monumental task. In addition to environmental factors that can influence the risk of disease, there is also a number of other complicating factors. Genetic variants associated with age of disease onset may be different from those variants associated with overall risk of disease, and variants may be located in positions that are not consistent with the traditional protein coding genetic paradigm. Latent Variable Models are well suited for the analysis of genetic data. A latent variable is one that we do not directly observe, but which is believed to exist or is included for computational or analytic convenience in a model. This thesis presents a mixture of methodological developments utilising latent variables, and results from case studies in genetic epidemiology and comparative genomics. Epidemiological studies have identified a number of environmental risk factors for appendicitis, but the disease aetiology of this oft thought useless vestige remains largely a mystery. The effects of smoking on other gastrointestinal disorders are well documented, and in light of this, the thesis investigates the association between smoking and appendicitis through the use of latent variables. By utilising data from a large Australian twin study questionnaire as both cohort and case-control, evidence is found for the association between tobacco smoking and appendicitis. Twin and family studies have also found evidence for the role of heredity in the risk of appendicitis. Results from previous studies are extended here to estimate the heritability of age-at-onset and account for the eect of smoking. This thesis presents a novel approach for performing a genome-wide variance components linkage analysis on transformed residuals from a Cox regression. This method finds evidence for a dierent subset of genes responsible for variation in age at onset than those associated with overall risk of appendicitis. Motivated by increasing evidence of functional activity in regions of the genome once thought of as evolutionary graveyards, this thesis develops a generalisation to the Bayesian multiple changepoint model on aligned DNA sequences for more than two species. This sensitive technique is applied to evaluating the distributions of evolutionary rates, with the finding that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We show strong evidence for at least 9 well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least 7 classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. A pattern of enrichment and depletion of genic regions in the profiled segments suggests they are functionally significant, and most likely consist of various functional classes. Furthermore, a method of incorporating alignment characteristics representative of function such as GC content and type of mutation into the segmentation model is developed within this thesis. Evidence of fine-structured segmental variation is presented.

Personalised electronic messages to improve sun protection in young adults

The incidence of all skin cancers, including melanoma, continues to rise. It is well known that ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the main environmental risk factor for skin cancer, and excessive exposure at a young age increases the risk of developing skin cancer. The aim of this study was to determine the acceptability and feasibility of delivering sun protection messages via electronic media such as short message services (SMS) to people 18-40 years, and explore factors associated with their acceptability. Overall, 80% of participants agreed that they would like to receive some form of sun protection advice; of these, 20% prefer to receive it via SMS and 42% via email. Willingness to receive electronic messages about the UV index was associated with being unsure about whether a suntanned person would look healthy and greater use of sun protection in the past. Careful attention to message framing and timing of message delivery and focus on short-term effects of sun exposure such as sunburn and skin ageing should increase the acceptability of such messages to young people. We conclude that sun protection messages delivered to young adults via electronic media appear feasible and acceptable.

Phosphorus as a limiting factor on sustainable greywater irrigation

Water reuse through greywater irrigation has been adopted worldwide and has been proposed as a potential sustainable solution to increased water demands. Despite widespread adoption there is limited domestic knowledge of greywater reuse, there is no pressure to produce lowlevel phosphorus products and current guidelines and legislation, such as those in Australia, may be inadequate due to the lack of long-term data to provide a sound scientific basis. Research has clearly identified phosphorus as a potential environmental risk to waterways from many forms of irrigation. To assess the sustainability of greywater irrigation, this study compared four residential lots that had been irrigated with greywater for four years and adjacent non-irrigated lots that acted as controls. Each lot was monitored for the volume of greywater applied and selected physic-chemical water quality parameters and soil chemistry profiles were analysed. The non-irrigated soil profiles showed low levels of phosphorus and were used as controls. The Mechlich3 Phosphorus ratio (M3PSR) and Phosphate Environmental Risk Index (PERI) were used to determine the environmental risk of phosphorus leaching from the irrigated soils. Soil phosphorus concentrations were compared to theoretical greywater irrigation loadings. The measured phosphorus soil concentrations and the estimated greywater loadings were of similar magnitude. Sustainable greywater reuse is possible; however incorrect use and/or a lack of understanding of how household products affect greywater can result in phosphorus posing a significant risk to the environment.