An empirical investigation of the level effect in Australian interest rates

An extensive literature examines the dynamics of interest rates, with particular attention given to the positive relationship between interest-rate volatility and the level of interest rates—the so-called level effect. This paper examines the interaction between the estimated level effect and competing parameterisations of interest-rate volatility for the Australian yield curve. We adopt a new methodology that estimates elasticity in a multivariate setting that explicitly accommodates the correlations that exist between various yield factors. Results show that significant correlations exist between the residuals of yield factors and that such correlations do indeed impact on model estimates. Within the multivariate setting, the level of the short rate is shown to be a crucial determinant of the conditional volatility of all three yield factors. Measures of model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts is important

Exploration of the defect’s effect on the mechanical properties of different orientated nanowires

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been carried out to investigate the defect’s effect on the mechanical properties of copper nanowire with different crystallographic orientations, under tensile deformation. Three different crystallographic orientations have been considered. The deformation mechanism has been carefully discussed. It is found that the Young’s modulus is insensitive to the defect, even when the nanowire’s crystallographic orientation is different. However, due to the defect’s effect, the yield strength and yield strain appear a large decrease. The defects have played a role of dislocation sources, the slips or stacking faults are first generated around the locations of the defects. The necking locations have also been affected by different defects. Due to the surface defect, the plastic deformation has received a large influence for the <001>/{110} and <110> orientated nanowires, and a relative small influence is seen for the <111> nanowire.

Numerical exploration of the defect’s effect on mechanical properties of nanowires under torsion

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been carried out to investigate the defect’s effect on the mechanical properties of single-crystal copper nanowire with different surface defects, under torsion deformation. The torsional rigidity is found insensitive to the surface defects and the critical angle appears an obvious decrease due to the surface defects, the largest decrease is found for the nanowire with surface horizon defect. The deformation mechanism appears different degrees of influence due to surface defects. The surface defects play a role of dislocation sources. Comparing with single intrinsic stacking faults formation for the perfect nanowire, much affluent deformation processes have been activated because of surface defects, for instance, we find the twins formation for the nanowire with a surface 45o defect.

Assessment of the temperature effect on childhood diarrhea using satellite imagery

A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the main effect of temperature on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood diarrhea in Brisbane from 2001 to 2010. Residual of the model was checked to examine whether there was an added effect due to heat waves. The change over time in temperature-diarrhea relation was also assessed. Both low and high temperatures had significant impact on childhood diarrhea. Heat waves had an added effect on childhood diarrhea, and this effect increased with intensity and duration of heat waves. There was a decreasing trend in the main effect of heat on childhood diarrhea in Brisbane across the study period. Brisbane children appeared to have gradually adapted to mild heat, but they are still very sensitive to persistent extreme heat. Development of future heat alert systems should take the change in temperature-diarrhea relation over time into account.

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

The effects of high temperature on cardiovascular admissions in the most populous tropical city in Vietnam

This study examined the short-term effects of temperature on cardiovascular hospital admissions (CHA) in the largest tropical city in Southern Vietnam. We applied Poisson time-series regression models with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to examine the temperature-CHA association while adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, holidays, and humidity. The threshold temperature and added effects of heat waves were also evaluated. The exposure-response curve of temperature-CHA reveals a J-shape relationship with a threshold temperature of 29.6 °C. The delayed effects temperature-CHA lasted for a week (0–5 days). The overall risk of CHA increased 12.9% (RR, 1.129; 95%CI, 0.972–1.311) during heatwave events, which were defined as temperature ≥ the 99th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days. The modification roles of gender and age were inconsistent and non-significant in this study. An additional prevention program that reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease in relation to high temperatures should be developed.

Analysis of road potential and bottlenecks based on operating speed

Vehicle detectors have been installed at approximately every 300 meters on each lane on Tokyo metropolitan expressway. Various traffic data such as traffic volume, average speed and time occupancy are collected by vehicle detectors. We can understand traffic characteristics of every point by comparing traffic data collected at consecutive points. In this study, we focused on average speed, analyzed road potential by operating speed during free-flow conditions, and identified latent bottlenecks. Furthermore, we analyzed effects for road potential by the rainfall level and day of the week. It’s expected that this method of analysis will be utilized for installation of ITS such as drive assist, estimation of parameters for traffic simulation and feedback to road design as congestion measures.

The impact of police speed enforcement practices on self-reported speeding: An exploration of the effects of visibility and mobility

Research has highlighted the relationship between vehicle speed and increased crash risk and severity. Evidence suggests that police speed enforcement, in particular speed camera operations, can be an effective tool for reducing traffic crashes. A quantitative survey of Queensland drivers (n = 852) was conducted to investigate the impact of police speed enforcement methods on self-reported speeding behaviour. Results indicate that visible enforcement was associated with significantly greater self-reported compliance than covert operations irrespective of the mobility of the approach, and the effects on behaviour were longer lasting. The mobility of operations appeared to be moderated the visibility of the approach. Specifically, increased mobility was associated with increase reported compliant behaviour, but only for covert operations, and increased longevity of reported compliant behaviour, but only for overt operations. The perceived effectiveness of various speed enforcement approaches are also analysed across a range of driving scenarios. Results are discussed in light of the small effect sizes. Recommendations for policy and future research are presented.

Visual assessment of pedestrian crashes

Of the numerous factors that play a role in fatal pedestrian collisions, the time of day, day of the week, and time of year can be significant determinants. More than 60% of all pedestrian collisions in 2007 occurred at night, despite the presumed decrease in both pedestrian and automobile exposure during the night. Although this trend is partially explained by factors such as fatigue and alcohol consumption, prior analysis of the Fatality Analysis Reporting System database suggests that pedestrian fatalities increase as light decreases after controlling for other factors. This study applies graphical cross-tabulation, a novel visual assessment approach, to explore the relationships among collision variables. The results reveal that twilight and the first hour of darkness typically observe the greatest frequency of pedestrian fatal collisions. These hours are not necessarily the most risky on a per mile travelled basis, however, because pedestrian volumes are often still high. Additional analysis is needed to quantify the extent to which pedestrian exposure (walking/crossing activity) in these time periods plays a role in pedestrian crash involvement. Weekly patterns of pedestrian fatal collisions vary by time of year due to the seasonal changes in sunset time. In December, collisions are concentrated around twilight and the first hour of darkness throughout the week while, in June, collisions are most heavily concentrated around twilight and the first hours of darkness on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday nights in June may be the most dangerous times for pedestrians. Knowing when pedestrian risk is highest is critically important for formulating effective mitigation strategies and for efficiently investing safety funds. This applied visual approach is a helpful tool for researchers intending to communicate with policy-makers and to identify relationships that can then be tested with more sophisticated statistical tools.

Particulate air pollution and cardiorespiratory hospital admissions in a temperate Australian city: A case-crossover analysis

Although ambient air pollution exposure has been linked with poor health in many parts of the world, no previous study has investigated the effect on morbidity in the city of Adelaide, South Australia. To explore the association between particulate matter (PM) and hospitalisations, including respiratory and cardiovascular admissions in Adelaide, South Australia. Methods: For the study period September 2001 to October 2007, daily counts of all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions were collected, as well as daily air quality data including concentrations of particulates, ozone and nitrogen dioxide. Visibility codes for presentweather conditions identified dayswhen airborne dust or smoke was observed. The associations between PM and hospitalisations were estimated using timestratified case-crossover analyses controlling for covariates including temperature, relative humidity, other pollutants, day of the week and public holidays. Mean PM10 concentrations were higher in the warm season, whereas PM2.5 concentrations were higher in the cool season. Hospital admissions were associated with PM10 in the cool season and with PM2.5 in both seasons. No significant effect of PM on all-age respiratory admissions was detected, however cardiovascular admissions were associated with both PM2.5 and PM10 in the cool season with the highest effects for PM2.5 (4.48%, 95% CI: 0.74%, 8.36% increase per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5). These findings suggest that despite the city's relatively low levels of air pollution, PMconcentrations are associated with increases in morbidity in Adelaide. Further studies are needed to investigate the sources of PM which may be contributing to the higher cool season effects.

Compass points : the locations, landscapes and coordinates of identities in contemporary performance making : proceedings of the Australasian Association for Theatre, Drama & Performance Studies (ADSA) Conference 2012

Compass Points: The Locations, Landscapes and Coordinates of Identities' the Australasian Association for Theatre, Drama and Performance Studies (ADSA) Conference 2012 was held at Queensland University of Technology, July 3-6 2012. The Conference was sponsored by the Australasian Association for Theatre, Drama and Performance Studies (ADSA), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Ian Potter Foundation, Arts Queensland, La Boite Theatre Company and Queensland Theatre Company. The papers selected for this collection represent a small sample of the scope, depth and diversity of scholarship presented at the conference - they cover a range of genres, cultures and contexts in contemporary performance making from autobiography, to playwrighting, to public space performance and beyond. The papers collected have been peer-reviewed to Australia’s Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST) standards - each has been subject to two blind reviews, followed by acceptance, rejection or revision, and editing of accepted papers - by colleagues from Australasia and overseas. The review process for the conference publication was separate from the review process for acceptance of abstracts for the actual conference presentations. The conference convenors, Bree Hadley and Caroline Heim, edited the collection, and would like to thank all those who gave their time to advise on the peer review process and act as reviewers - Tom Burvill, Christine Comans, Sean Edgecomb, Angela Campbell, Natalie Lazaroo, Jo Loth, Meg Mumford, Ulrike Garde, Laura Ginters, Andre Bastian, Sam Trubridge, Delyse Ryan, Georgia Seffrin, Gillian Arrighi, Rand Hazou, Rob Pensalfini, Sue Fenty-Studham, Mark Radvan, Rob Conkie, Kris Plummer, Lisa Warrington, Kate Flaherty, Bryoni Tresize, Janys Hayes, Lisa Warrington, Teresa Izzard, Kim Durban, Veronica Kelly, Adrian Keirnander, James Davenport, Julie Robson and others. We, and the authors, appreciate the rigour and care with which peers have approached the scholarship presented here. This collection was published in final form on July 3rd 2012, the first day of the ADSA Conference 2012.