Credit rating agencies' roles have to be reassessed

With the disintermediation of the financial markets, credit rating agencies filled the informational need of investors on the creditworthiness of borrowers. They acquired their privileged position in the financial market through their intellectual technology and reputational capital. To a large extent, they have gradually dissipated the authority of state regulators and supervisory authorities with their increasing reliance on credit ratings for regulatory purposes. But the recent credit crisis revives the question on whether states should retake their authorities and how far rating agencies should be subjected to competition, transparency and accountability constraints imposed by the public and the market on state regulators and supervisory authorities. Against this backdrop, this article critically explores the key concerns with credit rating agencies' functions to regulate financial market for further assessment

Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk

The global financial crisis has underscored the need to pay attention to contingent government liabilities that could arise from bank failures for sovereign risk management. This paper proposes a simple method to construct a contingent liability index (CLI) for a banking sector that takes into account the size and concentration of the banking system, market expectations of bank defaults, and perceptions of government support to each bank. This method allows us to track potential government liabilities related to bank failures for 32 advanced and emerging economies on a monthly basis from 2006 to 2013. Furthermore, we find that the CLI is a significant determinant of sovereign CDS spreads. Our results suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the CLI is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads by 24 basis points for advanced economies and 75 basis points for emerging markets on average.

Dislodgement of commercial property public debt markets : the case of U.S. and Australia

The paper investigates if there are any discernible trends in the U.S. and Australian commercial property public debt markets with the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Commercial mortgage-backed securities and unsecured bonds issued by real estate investment trusts for the period 2000 to Q3:2009 are reviewed. It is shown that events in the equity markets have an impact on the pricing of these two instruments. Furthermore, the impact of subdued activity in these financing instruments on the commercial property market is discussed.

The Australian prehospital pandemic risk perception study and an examination of new public health roles in pandemic response for ambulance services

This report is one of a series of products resulting from a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Urgent Research Grant – Pandemic Influenza [No 409973]. The research targeted two key aspects of planning and preparedness for a human influenza pandemic, namely:

Using genomic data to make indirect (and unauthorized) estimates of disease risk

The number of genetic factors associated with common human traits and disease is increasing rapidly, and the general public is utilizing affordable, direct-to-consumer genetic tests. The results of these tests are often in the public domain. A combination of factors has increased the potential for the indirect estimation of an individual's risk for a particular trait. Here we explain the basic principals underlying risk estimation which allowed us to test the ability to make an indirect risk estimation from genetic data by imputing Dr. James Watson's redacted apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) information. The principles underlying risk prediction from genetic data have been well known and applied for many decades, however, the recent increase in genomic knowledge, and advances in mathematical and statistical techniques and computational power, make it relatively easy to make an accurate but indirect estimation of risk. There is a current hazard for indirect risk estimation that is relevant not only to the subject but also to individuals related to the subject; this risk will likely increase as more detailed genomic data and better computational tools become available.

Evolution of vocational rehabilitation competencies in Australia

Over the past decade, there has been growth in the delivery of vocational rehabilitation services globally, as countries seek to control disability-related expenditure, yet there has been minimal research outside the United States on competencies required to work in this area. This study reports on research conducted in Australia to determine current job function and knowledge areas in terms of their importance and frequency of use in the provision of vocational rehabilitation. A survey comprising items from the Rehabilitation Skills Inventory-Amended and International Survey of Disability Management was completed by 149 rehabilitation counselors and items submitted to factor analysis. T-tests and analyses of variance were used to determine differences between scores of importance and frequency and differences in scores based on work setting and professional training. Six factors were identified as important and frequently used: (i) vocational counseling, (ii) professional practice, (iii) personal counseling, (iv) rehabilitation case management, (v) workplace disability case management, and (vi) workplace intervention and program management. Vocational counseling, professional practice and personal counseling were significantly more important and performed more frequently by respondents in vocational rehabilitation settings than those in compensation settings. These same three factors were rated significantly higher in importance and frequency by those with rehabilitation counselor training when compared with those with other training. In conclusion, although ‘traditional’ knowledge and skill areas such as vocational counseling, professional practice, and personal counseling were identified as central to vocational rehabilitation practice in Australian rehabilitation agencies, mean ratings suggest a growing emphasis on knowledge and skills associated with disability management practice.

Mothers' sleep and driving in the postpartum period

Introduction: Previous studies investigating mothers’ sleep in the postpartum period commonly demonstrated elevated levels of sleepiness in this population. A Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) rating of 5 or above is associated with an exponential increase in vehicle crash risk. To date, no studies have investigated the relationship between mothers’ sleep in the postpartum period and their driving behaviour. Methods: Sleep-wake diary data was collected from 14 mother-infant dyads during two 7-day assessment periods when the infants were 6 and 12 weeks old. The mothers’ indicated all driving episodes during these weeks and their respective sleepiness level using the KSS. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the mothers when their infant was 12 weeks old. Results: The infants slept significantly more than their mothers at 6 weeks and 12 weeks of age. During both time points, mothers and infants had a similar number of night awakenings (waking between 22:00 and 06:00), with some mothers experiencing greater than 19 awakenings over 7 nights. Notably, 36% of the mothers did not experience a continuous sleep period longer than 4.5 hours when their infant was 6 weeks old. A total of 141 driving episodes were reported during the 7 day assessment period when the infants were 6 weeks old. Over 50% of the driving episodes were denoted with a KSS score of 5 or above. Strategies mothers cited they employed during this period included only driving when feeling alert, postponing driving until another person is present, and driving in the morning when less sleepy. Conclusion: Mothers are experiencing disrupted sleep at night and some mothers do not obtain more than 4.5 hours of continuous sleep during the early postpartum weeks. In this sample, some mothers reported self-regulating driving behaviour, however over half of the driving episodes were undertaken with a sleepiness rating linked with elevated crash risk.

“We’re not like these weird feather boa-covered AIDS-spreading monsters” : How LGBT young people and service providers think riskiness informs LGBT youth–police interactions

Research has suggested that lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) young people are “at-risk” of victimization and/or legally “risky.” Relatively few studies have examined the social construction of risk in “risk factor” research and whether risk as a concept influences the everyday lives of LGBT young people. This article reports how 35 LGBT young people and seven service provider staff in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia perceived LGBT youth–police interactions as reflecting discourses about LGBT riskiness and danger. The participants specifically note how they thought looking at-risk and/or looking risky informed their policing experiences. The article concludes with recommendations for improving future policing practice.

Community uses of co-creative media. Digital storytelling and Co-creative Media : The role of community arts and media in propagating and coordinating population-wide creative practice

This report describes a dynamic ‘Co-creative Media System’ that is emerging in the social space bounded by the following institutional pillars: • major cultural institutions (including screen culture agencies, libraries, museums, galleries and public service broadcasters) • the Community Arts and Cultural Development sector (historically supported through various programs of the Australia Council for the Arts) • the community broadcasting sector • the Indigenous media sector, and • the higher education sector. It illustrates how this system activates the immense creative potential of the Australian population through the ongoing development and application of participatory storytelling methods and media.

Interest rate caps : protection or paternalism

In a context where over-indebtedness and financial exclusion have been recognised as problems in Australia, it is undesirable that those who can least afford it, pay a high cost for short-term consumer credit. Evidence points to an increase in consumer debt in Australia and consequential over-indebtedness which has been shown to lead to a wide range of social problems.2 There is also evidence of financial exclusion, where consumers suffer a lack of access to mainstream financial services, and in Australia this is particularly the case with regard to access to safe and affordable credit.3 Financial exclusion can only exacerbate over-indebtedness, given that financially excluded, predominantly low income consumers , have been shown to turn to high cost credit to meet their short term credit needs. This is a problem that has been explored most recently in the Victorian Consumer Credit Review...

Queensland's budget austerity and its impact on social welfare : is the cure worse than the disease?

While considerable attention has been paid to the austerity experiments in Europe, much less attention has been paid to austerity case studies from other parts of the world. This paper examines the case of Queensland, Australia, where the government has pursued austerity measures, while making dire warnings that unless public debt was slashed and the public service sector downsized,Queensland risked becoming the Spain of Australia. The comparison is incomprehensible, given the very different economic situation in Queensland compared with Spain. This comparison constructed a sense of crisis that helped to mask standard neoliberal economic reform. While pursuing neoliberal economic policies,the Queensland Government has also been introducing draconian laws that limit civil liberties and political freedoms for ordinary citizens. This mix of authoritarianism and austerity has met considerable resistance, and this dynamic is discussed in the paper, along with the predictable and unequal impact that austerity measures have had on the general population and social services.

Natural disaster risk-informed for a better public infrastructure asset planning in Indonesian Central Government

The natural disasters incident that frequently hit Indonesia are floods, severe droughts, tsunamis, earth-quakes, volcano, eruptions, landslides, windstorm and forest fires. The impact of those natural disasters are significantly severe and affecting the quality of life of the community due to the breakdown of the public as-sets as one source to deliver public services. This paper is aimed to emphasis the importance of natural disaster risk-informed in relation to public asset management in Indonesian Central Government, particularly in asset planning stage where asset decision is made as the gate into the whole public asset management processes. A Case study in the Ministry of Finance Indonesia as the central government public asset manager and in 5 (five) line ministries/governmental agencies as public asset users was used as the approach to achieved the research objective. The case study devoured three data collection techniques i.e. interviews, observations and document archival which will be analysed by a content analysis approach. The result of the study indicates that Indonesian geographical position exposing many of public infra-structure assets as a high vulnerability to natural disasters. Information on natural-disaster trends and predictions to identify and measure the risks are available, however, such information are not utilise and integrated to the process of public infrastructure asset planning as the gate to the whole public asset management processes. Therefore, in order to accommodate and incorporate this natural disaster risk-information into public asset management processes, particularly in public asset planning, a public asset performance measurements framework should be adopted and applied in the process as one sources in making decision for infrastructure asset planning. Findings from this study provide useful input for the Ministry of Finance as public asset manager, scholars and private asset management practitioners in Indonesia to establish natural disaster risks awareness in public infrastructure asset management processes.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Open content licensing of public sector information and the risk of tortious liability for Australian Governments

There has been an increasing interest by governments worldwide in the potential benefits of open access to public sector information (PSI). However, an important question remains: can a government incur tortious liability for incorrect information released online under an open content licence? This paper argues that the release of PSI online for free under an open content licence, specifically a Creative Commons licence, is within the bounds of an acceptable level of risk to government, especially where users are informed of the limitations of the data and appropriate information management policies and principles are in place to ensure accountability for data quality and accuracy.

Prevalence of malnutrition risk and its relationship with risk factors of hospital re-admission in older adults

Background: Risk of malnutrition in older people continues to be a global problem. Malnutrition is often unrecognized and under-treated across health care settings and may result in undesirable health consequences, impaired recovery from illness and a poorer quality of life. Aim: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of malnutrition risk in a sample of older people at high risk of hospital re-admission. The association between risk factors of hospital re-admission and risk of malnutrition were also explored. Methods: One hundred and twenty five hospitalised patients aged 65 years and older at risk of hospital readmission (24% male, 76% female, mean age 77 ± 6 years) were recruited from a tertiary metropolitan hospital in Australia. The valid and reliable Malnutrition Screen Tool (MST) was employed to screen for malnutrition risk. It consists of two questions related to recent weight loss and appetite. Results: Prevalence of older adults at risk of malnutrition was 27.4%. Risk of malnutrition was not associated with age, gender and living arrangement. However, among risk factors of hospital readmission, lack of social support (χ2 = 4.18, N = 125, p = 0.028), and fair –poor self-rating of health (χ2 = 4.13, N = 125, p = 0.042) were statistically significant associated with risk of malnutrition. Conclusion: Risk of malnutrition in older people continues to be a concern in health care, and increasing psycho social support may help shed light on reducing risk of malnutrition.