A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Effect of water management practice on pesticide behavior in paddy water

The fate and transport of three herbicides commonly used in rice production in Japan were compared using two water management practices. The herbicides were simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet. The first management practice was an intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system (AI) with a high drainage gate and the second one was a continuous irrigation and overflow drainage scheme (CI) in experimental paddy fields. Dissipation of the herbicides appeared to follow first order kinetics with the half-lives (DT₅₀) of 1.6-3.4 days and the DT₉₀ (90% dissipation) of 7.4-9.8 days. The AI scheme had little drainage even during large rainfall events thus resulting in losses of less than 4% of each applied herbicide through runoff. Meanwhile the CI scheme resulted in losses of about 37%, 12% and 35% of the applied masses of simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet, respectively. The intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate saved irrigation water and prevented herbicide runoff whereas the continuous irrigation and overflow scheme resulted in significant losses of water as well as the herbicides. Maintaining the excess water storage is important for preventing paddy water runoff during significant rainfall events. The organic carbon partition coefficient K_oc seems to be a strong indicator of the aquatic fate of the herbicide as compared to the water solubility (S_W). However, further investigations are required to understand the relation between K_oc and the agricultural practices upon the pesticide fate and transport. An extension of the water holding period up to 10 days after herbicide application based on the DT₉₀ from the currently specified period of 3-4 days in Japan is recommended to be a good agricultural practice for controlling the herbicide runoff from paddy fields. Also, the best water management practice, which can be recommended for use during the water holding period, is the intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gold nanoresistors with near-constant resistivity in the cryogenic-to-room temperature range

Using a multiple plasma deposition-annealing (MDA) technique, we have fabricated an Au nanoisland-based thin film nanoresistor with a very low temperature coefficient of electrical resistivity in a cryogenic-to-room temperature range of 10 to 300 K. The nanoislanded gold film was deposited on a SiO2/Si wafer (500 nm SiO2 thickness) between two 300 nm thick Au electrodes which were separated by 100 m. A sophisticated selection of the thickness of the nanoislanded gold film, the annealing temperature, as well as the number of deposition/annealing cycles resulted in the fabrication of a nanoresistor with a temperature coefficient of electrical resistivity of 2.1 × 10-3 K-1 and the resistivity deviation not exceeding 2% in a cryogenic-to-room temperature range. We have found that the constant resistivity regime of the nanoisland-based thin film nanoresistor corresponds to a minimized nanoisland activation energy (approximately 0.3 meV). This energy can be minimized by reducing the nearest neighbor distance and increasing the size of the Au nanoislands in the optimized nanoresistor structure. It is shown that the constant resistivity nanoresistor operates in the regime where the thermally activated electron tunneling is compensated by the negative temperature dependence of the metallic-type conductivity of nanoislands. Our results are relevant to the development of commercially viable methods of nanoresistor production for various nanoelectronics-based devices. The proposed MDA technique also provides the opportunity to fabricate large arrays of metallic nanoparticles with controllable size, shapes and inter-nanoparticle gaps.

Oxygen consumption and muscle activation patterns during constant load exercise

The collective purpose of these two studies was to determine a link between the V02 slow component and the muscle activation patterns that occur during cycling. Six, male subjects performed an incremental cycle ergometer exercise test to determine asub-TvENT (i.e. 80% of TvENT) and supra-TvENT (TvENT + 0.75*(V02 max - TvENT) work load. These two constant work loads were subsequently performed on either three or four occasions for 8 mins each, with V02 captured on a breath-by-breath basis for every test, and EMO of eight major leg muscles collected on one occasion. EMG was collected for the first 10 s of every 30 s period, except for the very first 10 s period. The V02 data was interpolated, time aligned, averaged and smoothed for both intensities. Three models were then fitted to the V02 data to determine the kinetics responses. One of these models was mono-exponential, while the other two were biexponential. A second time delay parameter was the only difference between the two bi-exponential models. An F-test was used to determine significance between the biexponential models using the residual sum of squares term for each model. EMO was integrated to obtain one value for each 10 s period, per muscle. The EMG data was analysed by a two-way repeated measures ANOV A. A correlation was also used to determine significance between V02 and IEMG. The V02 data during the sub-TvENT intensity was best described by a mono-exponential response. In contrast, during supra-TvENT exercise the two bi-exponential models best described the V02 data. The resultant F-test revealed no significant difference between the two models and therefore demonstrated that the slow component was not delayed relative to the onset of the primary component. Furthermore, only two parameters were deemed to be significantly different based upon the two models. This is in contrast to other findings. The EMG data, for most muscles, appeared to follow the same pattern as V02 during both intensities of exercise. On most occasions, the correlation coefficient demonstrated significance. Although some muscles demonstrated the same relative increase in IEMO based upon increases in intensity and duration, it cannot be assumed that these muscles increase their contribution to V02 in a similar fashion. Larger muscles with a higher percentage of type II muscle fibres would have a larger increase in V02 over the same increase in intensity.

Bow and stern flows with constant vorticity

Free surface flows of a rotational fluid past a two-dimensional semi-infinite body are considered. The fluid is assumed to be inviscid, incompressible, and of finite depth. A boundary integral method is used to solve the problem for the case where the free surface meets the body at a stagnation point. Supercritical solutions which satisfy the radiation condition are found for various values of the Froude number and the dimensionless vorticity. Subcritical solutions are also found; however these solutions violate the radiation condition and are characterized by a train of waves upstream. It is shown numerically that the amplitude of these waves increases as each of the Froude number, vorticity and height of the body above the bottom increases.

Smoothly attaching bow flows with constant vorticity

The free surface flow of a finite depth fluid past a semi-infinite body is considered. The fluid is assumed to have constant vorticity throughout and the free surface is assumed to attach smoothly to the front face of the body. Numerical solutions are found using a boundary integral method in the physical plane and it is shown that solutions exist for all supercritical Froude numbers. The related problem of the cusp-like flow due to a submerged sink in a corner is also considered. Vorticity is included in the flow and it is shown that the behaviour of the solutions is qualitatively the same as that found in the problem described above.

Drag coefficient in a crystal suspension

A single air bubble rising in xanthan gum crystal suspension has been studied experimentally. The suspension was made by different concentrations of xanthan gum solutions with 0.23 mm polystyrene crystal particles. Drag co-efficient data and a new correlation of drag coefficient is presented for spherical and nonspherical bubbles in non-Newtonian crystal suspension. The correlation is developed in terms of the Reynolds number, Re and the bubble shape factor, � (the ratio between the surface equivalent sphere diameter to the volume equivalent sphere diameter). The experimental drag coefficient was found to be consistent with this new predicted correlation and published data over the ranges, 0.1

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Teaching and learning family and consumer sciences through K-W-L charts

While much of the control and many of the activities found in today’s classrooms have been placed in the hands of the learners and learning has become inquiry-based, there remains a need for teachers to use teaching tools that would facilitate this student-centered teaching process. This article identifies the K-W-L Chart as one such tool and follows a case study of four Kuwaiti ‘Family and Consumer Sciences’ teaching / learning events to evaluate their ability to enhance the learning outcomes of eight students. The research was designed from a qualitative, multi-tiered design approach and was assessed through a constant comparative method of data analysis of interview responses, classroom observations and worksheet-assessments. The results showed that the use of K-W-L Charts influenced the teachers and learners toward a more inquiry-based approach and facilitated a more student-centered and collaborative learning environment, raising the level of interest and the amount of personal input given by the students.

Using the Gini coefficient with BIOLOG substrate utilisation data to provide an alternative quantitative measure for comparing bacterial soil communities

A measure quantifying unequal use of carbon sources, the Gini coefficient (G), has been developed to allow comparisons of the observed functional diversity of bacterial soil communities. This approach was applied to the analysis of substrate utilisation data obtained from using BIOLOG microtiter plates in a study which compared decomposition processes in two contrasting plant substrates in two different soils. The relevance of applying the Gini coefficient as a measure of observed functional diversity, for soil bacterial communities is evaluated against the Shannon index (H) and average well colour development (AWCD), a measure of the total microbial activity. Correlation analysis and analysis of variance of the experimental data show that the Gini coefficient, the Shannon index and AWCD provided similar information when used in isolation. However, analyses based on the Gini coefficient and the Shannon index, when total activity on the microtiter plates was maintained constant (i.e. AWCD as a covariate), indicate that additional information about the distribution of carbon sources being utilised can be obtained. We demonstrate that the Lorenz curve and its measure of inequality, the Gini coefficient, provides not only comparable information to AWCD and the Shannon index but when used together with AWCD encompasses measures of total microbial activity and absorbance inequality across all the carbon sources. This information is especially relevant for comparing the observed functional diversity of soil microbial communities.

A loop cancellation based active damping solution for constant power instability in vehicular power systems

In recent years, electric propulsion systems have increasingly been used in land, sea and air vehicles. The vehicular power systems are usually loaded with tightly regulated power electronic converters which tend to draw constant power. Since the constant power loads (CPLs) impose negative incremental resistance characteristics on the feeder system, they pose a potential threat to the stability of vehicular power systems. This effect becomes more significant in the presence of distribution lines between source and load in large vehicular power systems such as electric ships and more electric aircrafts. System transients such as sudden drop of converter side loads or increase of constant power requirement can cause complete system instability. Most of the existing research work focuses on the modeling and stabilization of DC vehicular power systems with CPLs. Only a few solutions are proposed to stabilize AC vehicular power systems with non-negligible distribution lines and CPLs. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel loop cancellation technique to eliminate constant power instability in AC vehicular power systems with a theoretically unbounded system stability region. Analysis is carried out on system stability with the proposed method and simulation results are presented to validate its effectiveness.

Virtual resistance based active damping solution for constant power instability in AC microgrids

With ever-increasing share of power electronic loads constant power instability is becoming a significant issue in microgrids, especially when they operate in the islanding mode. Transient conditions like resistive load-shedding or sudden increase of constant power loads (CPL) might destabilize the whole system. Modeling and stability analysis of AC microgrids with CPLs have already been discussed in literature. However, no effective solutions are provided to stabilize this kind of system. Therefore, this paper proposes a virtual resistance based active damping method to eliminate constant power instability in AC microgrids. Advantages and limitations of the proposed method are also discussed in detail. Simulation results are presented to validate the proposed active damping solution.

A maximum-likelihood method for estimating natural mortality and catchability coefficient from catch-and-effort data

A simple stochastic model of a fish population subject to natural and fishing mortalities is described. The fishing effort is assumed to vary over different periods but to be constant within each period. A maximum-likelihood approach is developed for estimating natural mortality (M) and the catchability coefficient (q) simultaneously from catch-and-effort data. If there is not enough contrast in the data to provide reliable estimates of both M and q, as is often the case in practice, the method can be used to obtain the best possible values of q for a range of possible values of M. These techniques are illustrated with tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) data from the Northern Prawn Fishery of Australia.

Towards a single crystal Raman spectrum of kaolinite at 77 K

The Raman spectra at 77 K of the hydroxyl stretching of kaolinite were obtained along the three axes perpendicular to the crystal faces. Raman bands were observed at 3616, 3658 and 3677 cm−1 together with a distinct band observed at 3691 cm−1 and a broad profile between 3695 and 3715 cm−1. The band at 3616 cm−1 is assigned to the inner hydroxyl. The bands at 3658 and 3677 cm−1 are attributed to the out-of-phase vibrations of the inner surface hydroxyls. The Raman spectra of the in-phase vibrations of the inner-surface hydroxyl-stretching region are described in terms of transverse and longitudinal optic splitting. The band at 3691 cm−1 is assigned to the transverse optic and the broad profile to the longitudinal optic mode. This splitting remained even at liquid nitrogen temperature. The transverse optic vibration may be curve resolved into two or three bands, which are attributed to different types of hydroxyl groups in the kaolinite.