Risk, uncertainty and complexity in science education

Increasingly societies and their governments are facing important social issues that have science and technology as key features. A number of these socio-scientific issues have two features that distinguish them from the restricted contexts in which school science has traditionally been presented. Some of their science is uncertain and scientific knowledge is not the only knowledge involved. As a result, the concepts of uncertainty, risk and complexity become essential aspects of the science underlying these issues. In this chapter we discuss the nature and role of these concepts in the public understanding of science and consider their links with school science. We argue that these same concepts and their role in contemporary scientific knowledge need to be addressed in school science curricula. The new features for content, pedagogy and assessment of this urgent challenge for science educators are outlined. These will be essential if the goal of science education for citizenship is to be achieved with our students, who will increasingly be required to make personal and collective decisions on issues involving science and technology.

From 'Neighbours' to 'Packed to the Rafters': accounting for longevity in the evolution of Aussie soaps

If there is one television programming staple for which Australian television drama is known internationally, it is the long-running television soap, with Neighbours (originally produced by Grundy in 1985) lauded as 'the most outstanding example of Australian series export' (Cunningham and Jacka, 1996). Twenty-five years on, this program still airs on domestic and international TV schedules five days a week, despite waning popularity with local Australian audiences. Considering past interest in the success and longevity of this soap, it is apposite to look again at the continuing progress of Neighbours foremost as a global brand. In comparison, Packed to the Rafters is treated here as a contemporary version of familiar Aussie themes related to everyday middle-class suburbia, populated with blue skies and feel-good characters expressing wholesome family values, but with a stylistic innovation defined here as domestic realism. As part of the production ecology of the late 2000s, Packed to the Rafters demonstrates the considerable role for local drama productions as loss leaders and flagship programming for commercial free-to-air networks up against an increasingly difficult domestic market.

New insights into magmatism and changing rift styles in the evolution of the Gulf of California

The Gulf of California (GoC) has been an important focus site for understanding the spatial and temporal evolution of rifts, with recent studies concluding: 1) rapid crustal rupturing within 10 Myrs; 2) surprisingly abrupt variations in rifting style and magmatism with apparently wide magma-poor and narrow, magmatic rift segments; and 3) that high sedimentation rates may promote switching from wide to narrow rift modes or thermally blanket the crust to enhance rift magmatism. Critical to these conclusions is the onset of rifting at~12 Ma following the cessation of subduction. New field-based volcanostratigraphic and geochronologic studies along the southeastern GoC margin reveal Early Miocene (~25-18 Ma) bimodal volcanism in wide rifting mode (~400 km width), followed by a mid-Miocene (~18-12 Ma) phase of dominantly intermediate composition magmatism in and around the nascent GoC with lavas/domes often emplaced into actively subsiding basins, but contemporaneous with bimodal volcanism regionally. Flat-lying intraplate basaltic lava fields emplaced ~12-10 Ma along the GoC east coast abut tilted blocks of ~20 Ma ignimbrites onshore, and also occur offshore. The reduction in crustal thickness from ~55 to 20 km along the eastern GoC edge must have been largely achieved by 12 Ma. Extension has demonstrably began earlier than previously thought, downplaying rapid rifting and any thermal effects from <6 Ma sedimentation. New age data from onshore indicate significant structurally controlled corridors of magmatism during 18-12 Ma extension in apparently magma-poor rift segments, and this magmatism temporally coincides with the switch from wide to narrow rifting.

The challenges of managing complexity in projects : an Australian perspective

Project Management (PM) as an academic field is relatively new in Australian universities. Moreover, the field is distributed across four main areas: business (management), built environment and construction, engineering and more recently ICT (information systems). At an institutional level, with notable exceptions, there is little engagement between researchers working in those individual areas. Consequently, an initiative was launched in 2009 to create a network of PM researchers to build a disciplinary base for PM in Australia. The initiative took the form of a bi-annual forum. The first forum established the constituency and spread of PM research in Australia (Sense et al., 2011). This special issue of IJPM arose out of the second forum, held in 2012, that explored the notion of an Australian perspective on PM. At the forum, researchers were invited to collaborate to explore issues, methodological approaches, and theoretical positions underpinning their research and to answer the question: is there a distinctly Australian research agenda which responds to the current challenges of large and complex projects in our region? From a research point of view, it was abundantly clear at the forum that many of the issues facing Australian researchers are shared around the world. However, what emerged from the forum as the Australian perspective was a set of themes and research issues that dominate the Australia research agenda.

Bounded rationality and voting decisions over 160 years : voter behavior and increasing complexity in decision-making

Using a quasi-natural voting experiment encompassing a 160-year period (1848–2009) in Switzerland, we investigate whether a higher level of complexity leads to increased reliance on trusted parliamentary representatives. We find that when more referenda are held on the same day, constituents are more likely to refer to parliamentary recommendations when making their decisions. This finding holds true even when we narrow our focus to referenda with a relatively lower voter turnout on days on which more than one referendum is held. We also demonstrate that when constituents face a higher level of complexity, they follow the parliamentary recommendations rather than those of interest groups. "Viewed as a geometric figure, the ant’s path is irregular, complex, hard to describe. But its complexity is really a complexity in the surface of the beach, not a complexity in the ant." ([1] p. 51)

A conceptualization of complexity in IS-driven organizational transformations

Organizational transformations reliant on successful ICT system developments (continue to) fail to deliver projected benefits even when contemporary governance models are applied rigorously. Modifications to traditional program, project and systems development management methods have produced little material improvement to successful transformation as they are unable to routinely address the complexity and uncertainty of dynamic alignment of IS investments and innovation. Complexity theory provides insight into why this phenomenon occurs and is used to develop a conceptualization of complexity in IS-driven organizational transformations. This research-in-progress aims to identify complexity formulations relevant to organizational transformation. Political/power based influences, interrelated business rules, socio-technical innovation, impacts on stakeholders and emergent behaviors are commonly considered as characterizing complexity while the proposed conceptualization accommodates these as connectivity, irreducibility, entropy and/or information gain in hierarchically approximation and scaling, number of states in a finite automata and/or dimension of attractor, and information and/or variety.

Multimedia : a necessary step in the evolution of research funding applications

Multimedia communication capabilities are rapidly expanding, and visual information is easily shared electronically, yet funding bodies still rely on paper grant proposal submissions. Incorporating modern technologies will streamline the granting process by increasing the fidelity of grant communication, improving the efficiency of review, and reducing the cost of the process.

Using communicative ecology theory to scope the emerging role of social media in the evolution of urban food systems

Urban agriculture plays an increasingly vital role in supplying food to urban populations. Changes in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) are already driving widespread change in diverse food-related industries such as retail, hospitality and marketing. It is reasonable to suspect that the fields of ubiquitous technology, urban informatics and social media equally have a lot to offer the evolution of core urban food systems. We use communicative ecology theory to describe emerging innovations in urban food systems according to their technical, discursive and social components. We conclude that social media in particular accentuate fundamental social interconnections normally effaced by conventional industrialised approaches to food production and consumption.

Image-guided sampling reveals increased stroma and lower glandular complexity in mammographically dense breast tissue

Mammographic density (MD) adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) is a strong heritable breast cancer risk factor; however, its biological basis remains elusive. Previous studies assessed MD-associated histology using random sampling approaches, despite evidence that high and low MD areas exist within a breast and are negatively correlated with respect to one another. We have used an image-guided approach to sample high and low MD tissues from within individual breasts to examine the relationship between histology and degree of MD. Image-guided sampling was performed using two different methodologies on mastectomy tissues (n = 12): (1) sampling of high and low MD regions within a slice guided by bright (high MD) and dark (low MD) areas in a slice X-ray film; (2) sampling of high and low MD regions within a whole breast using a stereotactically guided vacuum-assisted core biopsy technique. Pairwise analysis accounting for potential confounders (i.e. age, BMI, menopausal status, etc.) provides appropriate power for analysis despite the small sample size. High MD tissues had higher stromal (P = 0.002) and lower fat (P = 0.002) compositions, but no evidence of difference in glandular areas (P = 0.084) compared to low MD tissues from the same breast. High MD regions had higher relative gland counts (P = 0.023), and a preponderance of Type I lobules in high MD compared to low MD regions was observed in 58% of subjects (n = 7), but did not achieve significance. These findings clarify the histologic nature of high MD tissue and support hypotheses regarding the biophysical impact of dense connective tissue on mammary malignancy. They also provide important terms of reference for ongoing analyses of the underlying genetics of MD.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Design of laboratory model and test plan

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring (SHM) have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Fieldwork has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. Informed by a brief review of the literature, this paper documents the design and proposed test plan of a structurally complex laboratory bridge model that has been specifically designed for the purpose of SHM research. Preliminary results have been presented in the companion paper.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Preliminary experimental modal testing and analysis

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Field work has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. This paper presents some preliminary results of experimental modal testing and analysis of the bridge model presented in the companion paper, using the peak picking method, and compares these results with those of a simple numerical model of the structure. Three dominant modes of vibration were experimentally identified under 15 Hz. The mode shapes and order of the modes matched those of the numerical model; however, the frequencies did not match.

How environmental and organizational complexity affects opportunity recognition and exploitation in development projects

Principal Topic: Project structures are often created by entrepreneurs and large corporate organizations to develop new products. Since new product development projects (NPDP) are more often situated within a larger organization, intrapreneurship or corporate entrepreneurship plays an important role in bringing these projects to fruition. Since NPDP often involves the development of a new product using immature technology, we describe development of an immature technology. The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 aircraft is being developed by the U.S. Department of Defense and eight allied nations. In 2001 Lockheed Martin won a $19 billion contract to develop an affordable, stealthy and supersonic all-weather strike fighter designed to replace a wide range of aging fighter aircraft. In this research we define a complex project as one that demonstrates a number of sources of uncertainty to a degree, or level of severity, that makes it extremely difficult to predict project outcomes, to control or manage project (Remington & Zolin, Forthcoming). Project complexity has been conceptualized by Remington and Pollock (2007) in terms of four major sources of complexity; temporal, directional, structural and technological complexity (See Figure 1). Temporal complexity exists when projects experience significant environmental change outside the direct influence or control of the project. The Global Economic Crisis of 2008 - 2009 is a good example of the type of environmental change that can make a project complex as, for example in the JSF project, where project managers attempt to respond to changes in interest rates, international currency exchange rates and commodity prices etc. Directional complexity exists in a project where stakeholders' goals are unclear or undefined, where progress is hindered by unknown political agendas, or where stakeholders disagree or misunderstand project goals. In the JSF project all the services and all non countries have to agree to the specifications of the three variants of the aircraft; Conventional Take Off and Landing (CTOL), Short Take Off/Vertical Landing (STOVL) and the Carrier Variant (CV). Because the Navy requires a plane that can take off and land on an aircraft carrier, that required a special variant of the aircraft design, adding complexity to the project. Technical complexity occurs in a project using technology that is immature or where design characteristics are unknown or untried. Developing a plane that can take off on a very short runway and land vertically created may highly interdependent technological challenges to correctly locate, direct and balance the lift fans, modulate the airflow and provide equivalent amount of thrust from the downward vectored rear exhaust to lift the aircraft and at the same time control engine temperatures. These technological challenges make costing and scheduling equally challenging. Structural complexity in a project comes from the sheer numbers of elements such as the number of people, teams or organizations involved, ambiguity regarding the elements, and the massive degree of interconnectedness between them. While Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor, they are assisted in major aspects of the JSF development by Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, Pratt & Whitney and GE/Rolls-Royce Fighter Engineer Team and innumerable subcontractors. In addition to identifying opportunities to achieve project goals, complex projects also need to identify and exploit opportunities to increase agility in response to changing stakeholder demands or to reduce project risks. Complexity Leadership Theory contends that in complex environments adaptive and enabling leadership are needed (Uhl-Bien, Marion and McKelvey, 2007). Adaptive leadership facilitates creativity, learning and adaptability, while enabling leadership handles the conflicts that inevitably arise between adaptive leadership and traditional administrative leadership (Uhl-Bien and Marion, 2007). Hence, adaptive leadership involves the recognition and opportunities to adapt, while and enabling leadership involves the exploitation of these opportunities. Our research questions revolve around the type or source of complexity and its relationship to opportunity recognition and exploitation. For example, is it only external environmental complexity that creates the need for the entrepreneurial behaviours, such as opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? Do the internal dimensions of project complexity, such as technological and structural complexity, also create the need for opportunity recognition and opportunity exploitation? The Kropp, Zolin and Lindsay model (2009) describes a relationship between entrepreneurial orientation (EO), opportunity recognition (OR), and opportunity exploitation (OX) in complex projects, with environmental and organizational contextual variables as moderators. We extend their model by defining the affects of external complexity and internal complexity on OR and OX. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: When the environment complex EO is more likely to result in OR because project members will be actively looking for solutions to problems created by environmental change. But in projects that are technologically or structurally complex project leaders and members may try to make the minimum changes possible to reduce the risk of creating new problems due to delays or schedule changes. In projects with environmental or technological complexity project leaders who encourage the innovativeness dimension of EO will increase OR in complex projects. But projects with technical or structural complexity innovativeness will not necessarily result in the recognition and exploitation of opportunities due to the over-riding importance of maintaining stability in the highly intricate and interconnected project structure. We propose that in projects with environmental complexity creating the need for change and innovation project leaders, who are willing to accept and manage risk, are more likely to identify opportunities to increase project effectiveness and efficiency. In contrast in projects with internal complexity a much higher willingness to accept risk will be necessary to trigger opportunity recognition. In structurally complex projects we predict it will be less likely to find a relationship between risk taking and OP. When the environment is complex, and a project has autonomy, they will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. When a project experiences high competitive aggressiveness and their environment is complex, project leaders will be motivated to execute opportunities to improve the project's performance. In contrast, when the project has high internal complexity, they will be more cautious in execution. This paper reports the first stage of a three year study into the behaviours of managers, leaders and team members of complex projects. We conduct a qualitative study involving a Group Discussion with experienced project leaders. The objective is to determine how leaders of large and potentially complex projects perceive that external and internal complexity will influence the affects of EO on OR. ---------- Results and Implications: These results will help identify and distinguish the impact of external and internal complexity on entrepreneurial behaviours in NPDP. Project managers will be better able to quickly decide how and when to respond to changes in the environment and internal project events.