The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Thermal performance optimization of building aspect ratio and south window size in five cities having different climatic characteristics of Turkey

The aim of the study is to establish optimum building aspect ratios and south window sizes of residential buildings from thermal performance point of view. The effects of 6 different building aspect ratios and eight different south window sizes for each building aspect ratio are analyzed for apartments located at intermediate floors of buildings, by the aid of the computer based thermal analysis program SUNCODE-PC in five cities of Turkey: Erzurum, Ankara, Diyarbakir, Izmir, and Antalya. The results are evaluated in terms of annual energy consumption and the optimum values are driven. Comparison of optimum values and the total energy consumption rates is made among the analyzed cities.

An expressed sequence tag (EST) library for Drosophila serrata, a model system for sexual selection and climatic adaptation studies

The native Australian fly Drosophila serrata belongs to the highly speciose montium subgroup of the melanogaster species group. It has recently emerged as an excellent model system with which to address a number of important questions, including the evolution of traits under sexual selection and traits involved in climatic adaptation along latitudinal gradients. Understanding the molecular genetic basis of such traits has been limited by a lack of genomic resources for this species. Here, we present the first expressed sequence tag (EST) collection for D. serrata that will enable the identification of genes underlying sexually-selected phenotypes and physiological responses to environmental change and may help resolve controversial phylogenetic relationships within the montium subgroup.

Climatic records over the past 30 ka from temperate Australia – a synthesis from the Oz-INTIMATE workgroup

Temperate Australia sits between the heat engine of the tropics and the cold Southern Ocean, encompassing a range of rainfall regimes and falling under the influence of different climatic drivers. Despite this heterogeneity, broad-scale trends in climatic and environmental change are evident over the past 30 ka. During the early glacial period (∼30–22 ka) and the Last Glacial Maximum (∼22–18 ka), climate was relatively cool across the entire temperate zone and there was an expansion of grasslands and increased fluvial activity in regionally important Murray–Darling Basin. The temperate region at this time appears to be dominated by expanded sea ice in the Southern Ocean forcing a northerly shift in the position of the oceanic fronts and a concomitant influx of cold water along the southeast (including Tasmania) and southwest Australian coasts. The deglacial period (∼18–12 ka) was characterised by glacial recession and eventual disappearance resulting from an increase in temperature deduced from terrestrial records, while there is some evidence for climatic reversals (e.g. the Antarctic Cold Reversal) in high resolution marine sediment cores through this period. The high spatial density of Holocene terrestrial records reveals an overall expansion of sclerophyll woodland and rainforest taxa across the temperate region after ∼12 ka, presumably in response to increasing temperature, while hydrological records reveal spatially heterogeneous hydro-climatic trends. Patterns after ∼6 ka suggest higher frequency climatic variability that possibly reflects the onset of large scale climate variability caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Physiological tolerance times while wearing explosive ordnance disposal protective clothing in simulated environmental extremes

Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) technicians are required to wear protective clothing to protect themselves from the threat of overpressure, fragmentation, impact and heat. The engineering requirements to minimise these threats results in an extremely heavy and cumbersome clothing ensemble that increases the internal heat generation of the wearer, while the clothing’s thermal properties reduce heat dissipation. This study aimed to evaluate the heat strain encountered wearing EOD protective clothing in simulated environmental extremes across a range of differing work intensities. Eight healthy males [age 25±6 years (mean ± sd), height 180±7 cm, body mass 79±9 kg, V˙O2max 57±6 ml.kg−1.min−1] undertook nine trials while wearing an EOD9 suit (weighing 33.4 kg). The trials involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km⋅h−1 at each of the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37°C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in a randomised controlled crossover design. The trials were ceased if the participants’ core temperature reached 39°C, if heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, if walking time reached 60 minutes or due to fatigue/nausea. Tolerance times ranged from 10–60 minutes and were significantly reduced in the higher walking speeds and environmental conditions. In a total of 15 trials (21%) participants completed 60 minutes of walking; however, this was predominantly at the slower walking speeds in the 21°C WBGT environment. Of the remaining 57 trials, 50 were ceased, due to attainment of 90% maximal heart rate. These near maximal heart rates resulted in moderate-high levels of physiological strain in all trials, despite core temperature only reaching 39°C in one of the 72 trials.

Impacts of climatic factors on evolution of molecular diversity and the natural distribution of wild stocks of the giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii)

Natural distributions of most freshwater taxa are restricted geographically, a pattern that reflects dispersal limitation. Macrobrachium rosenbergii is unusual because it occurs naturally in rivers from near Pakistan in the west, across India and Bangladesh to the Malay Peninsula, and across the Sunda Shelf and Indonesian archipelago to western Java. Individuals cannot tolerate full marine conditions, so dispersal between river drainage basins must occur at limited geographical scales when ecological or climatic factors are favorable. We examined molecular diversity in wild populations of M. rosenbergii across its complete natural range to document patterns of diversity and to relate them to factors that have driven evolution of diversity in this species. We found 3 clades in the mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) data set that corresponded geographically with eastern, central, and western sets of haplotypes that last shared a common ancestor 1 × 106 y ago. The eastern clade was closest to the common ancestor of all 3 clades and to the common ancestor with its congener, Macrobrachium spinipes, distributed east of Huxley's Line. Macrobrachium rosenbergii could have evolved in the western Indonesian archipelago and spread westward during the early to mid-Pleistocene to India and Sri Lanka. Additional groups identified in the nuclear DNA data set in the central and western clades probably indicate secondary contact via dispersal between regions and modern introductions that have mixed nuclear and mtDNA genes. Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations can explain dispersal across the Indonesian archipelago and parts of mainland southeastern Asia via changing river drainage connections in shallow seas on wide continental shelves. At the western end of the modern distribution where continental shelves are smaller, intermittent freshwater plumes from large rivers probably permitted larval dispersal across inshore areas of lowered salinity.

Airborne viable fungi in school environments in different climatic regions – A review

Elevated levels of fungi in indoor environments have been linked with mould/moisture damage in building structures. However, there is a lack of information about “normal” concentrations and flora as well as guidelines of viable fungi in the school environment in different climatic conditions. We have reviewed existing guidelines for indoor fungi and the current knowledge of the concentrations and flora of viable fungi in different climatic areas, the impact of the local factors on concentrations and flora of viable fungi in school environments. Meta-regression was performed to estimate the average behaviour for each analysis of interest, showing wide variation in the mean concentrations in outdoor and indoor school environments (range: 101-103 cfu/m3). These concentrations were significantly higher for both outdoors and indoors in the moderate than in the continental climatic area, showing that the climatic condition was a determinant for the concentrations of airborne viable fungi. The most common fungal species both in the moderate and continental area were Cladosporium spp. and Penicillium spp. The suggested few quantitative guidelines for indoor air viable fungi for school buildings are much lower than for residential areas. This review provides a synthesis, which can be used to guide the interpretation of the fungi measurements results and help to find indications of mould/moisture in school building structures.

Large variations in the Holocene marine radiocarbon reservoir effect reflect ocean circulation and climatic changes

Accurate radiocarbon dating of marine samples requires knowledge of the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect. This effect for a particular site/region is generally assumed constant through time when calibrating marine 14C ages. However, recent studies have shown large temporal variations of several hundred to a couple of thousand years in this effect for a number of regions during the late Quaternary and Holocene. Here we report marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔRΔR) for Heron Reef and Moreton Bay in southwestern (SW) Pacific for the last 8 ka derived from 14C analysis of 230Th-dated corals. Most of our ΔRΔR for the last ∼5.4 ka agree well with their modern value, but large ΔRΔR variability of ∼410 yr (from trough to peak) with possible decadal/centennial fluctuations is evident for the period ∼5.4–8 ka. The latter time interval also has significant variations with similar features in previously published ΔRΔR values for other sites in the Pacific, including southern Peru–northern Chile in southeastern (SE) Pacific, the South China Sea, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, with the largest magnitude of ∼920 yr from SE Pacific. The mechanisms for these large ΔRΔR variations across the Pacific during the mid-Holocene are complex processes involving (1) changes in the quantity and 14C content of upwelled waters in tropical east Pacific (TEP) (frequency and intensity of ocean upwelling in the TEP, and contribution of Subantarctic Mode Water to the upwelled waters, which is influenced by the intensity and position of southern westerly winds), and (2) variations in ocean circulation associated with climate change (La Niña/El Niño conditions, intensity of easterly trade winds, positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Pacific Convergence Zone), which control the spreading of the older upwelled surface waters in the TEP to the western sites. Our results imply the need for employing temporal changes in ΔRΔR values, instead of constant (modern) values, for age calibration of Holocene marine samples not only for the SW Pacific sites but also for other tropical and subtropical sites in the Pacific.

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

Cross-correlations between weather variables in Australia

The information on climate variations is essential for the research of many subjects, such as the performance of buildings and agricultural production. However, recorded meteorological data are often incomplete. There may be a limited number of locations recorded, while the number of recorded climatic variables and the time intervals can also be inadequate. Therefore, the hourly data of key weather parameters as required by many building simulation programmes are typically not readily available. To overcome this gap in measured information, several empirical methods and weather data generators have been developed. They generally employ statistical analysis techniques to model the variations of individual climatic variables, while the possible interactions between different weather parameters are largely ignored. Based on a statistical analysis of 10 years historical hourly climatic data over all capital cities in Australia, this paper reports on the finding of strong correlations between several specific weather variables. It is found that there are strong linear correlations between the hourly variations of global solar irradiation (GSI) and dry bulb temperature (DBT), and between the hourly variations of DBT and relative humidity (RH). With an increase in GSI, DBT would generally increase, while the RH tends to decrease. However, no such a clear correlation can be found between the DBT and atmospheric pressure (P), and between the DBT and wind speed. These findings will be useful for the research and practice in building performance simulation.

Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

The big brother : monitoring urban growth and change for sustainable infrastructure provision

Monitoring urban growth and land-use change is an important issue for sustainable infrastructure planning. Rapid urban development, sprawl and increasing population pressure, particularly in developing nations, are resulting in deterioration of infrastructure facilities, loss of productive agricultural lands and open spaces, pollution, health hazards and micro-climatic changes. In addressing these issues effectively, it is crucial to collect up-to-date and accurate data and monitor the changing environment at regular intervals. This chapter discusses the role of geospatial technologies for mapping and monitoring the changing environment and urban structure, where such technologies are highly useful for sustainable infrastructure planning and provision.

Preventing physical activity induced heat illness in school settings

The climatic conditions of tropical and subtropical regions within Australia present, at times, extreme risk of physical activity induced heat illness. Many administrators and teachers in school settings are aware of the general risks of heat related illness. In the absence of reliable information applied at the local level, there is a risk that inappropriate decisions may be made concerning school events that incorporate opportunities to be physically active. Such events may be prematurely cancelled resulting in the loss of necessary time for physical activity. Under high or extremely high risk conditions however, the absence of appropriate modifications or continuation could place the health of students, staff and other parties at risk. School staff and other key stakeholders should understand the mechanisms of escalating risk and be supported to undertake action to reduce the level of risk through appropriate policies, procedures, resources and action plans.