Phenological changes in six Australian subalpine plants in response to experimental warming and year-to-year variation

The likely phenological responses of plants to climate warming can be measured through experimental manipulation of field sites, but results are rarely validated against year-to-year changes in climate. Here, we describe the response of 1-5 years of experimental warming on phenology (budding, flowering and seed maturation) of six common subalpine plant species in the Australian Alps using the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) protocol.2. Phenological changes in some species (particularly the forb Craspedia jamesii) were detected in experimental plots within a year of warming, whereas changes in most other species (the forb Erigeron bellidioides, the shrub Asterolasia trymalioides and the graminoids Carex breviculmis and Poa hiemata) did not develop until after 2-4 years; thus, there appears to be a cumulative effect of warming for some species across multiple years.3. There was evidence of changes in the length of the period between flowering and seed maturity in one species (P. hiemata) that led to a similar timing of seed maturation, suggesting compensation.4. Year-to-year variation in phenology was greater than variation between warmed and control plots and could be related to differences in thawing degree days (particularly, for E. bellidioides) due to earlier timing of budding and other events under warmer conditions. However, in Carex breviculmis, there was no association between phenology and temperature changes across years.5. These findings indicate that, although phenological changes occurred earlier in response to warming in all six species, some species showed buffered rather than immediate responses.6. Synthesis. Warming in ITEX open-top chambers in the Australian Alps produced earlier budding, flowering and seed set in several alpine species. Species also altered the timing of these events, particularly budding, in response to year-to-year temperature variation. Some species responded immediately, whereas in others the cumulative effects of warming across several years were required before a response was detected.

Intellectual property and global warming: Climate justice

Engaging in a close analysis of legal and political discourse, this chapter considers conflicts over intellectual property and climate change in three key arenas: climate law; trade law; and intellectual property law. In this chapter, it is argued that there is a need to overcome the political stalemates and deadlocks over intellectual property and climate change. It is essential that intellectual property law engage in a substantive fashion with the matrix of issues surrounding fossil fuels, clean technologies, and climate change at an international level. First, this chapter examines the debate over intellectual property and climate change under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992, and the establishment of the UNFCCC Climate Technology Centre and Network. It recommends that the technology mechanism should address and deal with matters of intellectual property management and policy. Second, the piece examines the discussion of global issues in the World Intellectual Property Organization, WIPO GREEN. It supports the proposal for a Global Green Patent Highway to allow for the fast-tracking of intellectual property applications in respect of green technologies. Third, the chapter investigates the dispute in the TRIPS Council at the World Trade Organization over intellectual property, climate change, and development. This section focuses upon the TRIPS Agreement 1994. This chapter calls for a Joint Declaration on Intellectual Property and Climate Change from the UNFCCC, WIPO, and the WTO. The paper concludes that intellectual property should be reformed as part of a larger effort to promote climate justice. Rather than adopt a fragmented, piecemeal approach in various international institutions, there is a need for a co-ordinated and cohesive response to intellectual property in an age of runaway, global climate change. Patent law should be fossil fuel free. Intellectual property should encourage research, development, and diffusion of renewable energy and clean technologies. It is submitted that intellectual property law reform should promote climate justice in line with Mary Robinson’s Declaration on Climate Justice 2013.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

With the accelerated trend of global warming, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were typically designed based on current weather data, may not be able to cope with the future climate. This paper quantifies, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system. It is found from the sample office building examined that the existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. When the annual average temperature increase exceeds 2°C, the risk of current office buildings subjected to overheating will be significantly increased. For existing buildings which are designed with current climate condition, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings, in which the possible global warming has been taken into account in the design, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under 2070 High scenario would be required to improve the building thermal comfort level to an acceptable standard.

A Method of Preparing Future Hourly Weather Data for the Study of Global Warming Impact on the Built Environment

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition, it is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or wind characters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. A sensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a good linear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation, relative humidity or wind speed.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

As climate change will entail new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behaviour of air-conditioned office buildings may also change. Using building computer simulations, the impact of warmer weather is evaluated on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia, including the increased cooling loads and probable indoor temperature increases due to a possibly undersized air-conditioning system, as well as the possible change in energy use. It is found that existing office buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of year 2030 Low and High scenarios projections and the year 2070 Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings in all capital cities of Australia would suffer from overheating problems. For existing buildings designed for current climate conditions, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings designed for warmer scenarios, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under the 2070 High scenario would be required.

The potential to mitigate global warming with no-tillage management is only realized when practised in the long term

No-tillage (NT) management has been promoted as a practice capable of offsetting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of its ability to sequester carbon in soils. However, true mitigation is only possible if the overall impact of NT adoption reduces the net global warming potential (GWP) determined by fluxes of the three major biogenic GHGs (i.e. CO2, N2O, and CH4). We compiled all available data of soil-derived GHG emission comparisons between conventional tilled (CT) and NT systems for humid and dry temperate climates. Newly converted NT systems increase GWP relative to CT practices, in both humid and dry climate regimes, and longer-term adoption (>10 years) only significantly reduces GWP in humid climates. Mean cumulative GWP over a 20-year period is also reduced under continuous NT in dry areas, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Emissions of N2O drive much of the trend in net GWP, suggesting improved nitrogen management is essential to realize the full benefit from carbon storage in the soil for purposes of global warming mitigation. Our results indicate a strong time dependency in the GHG mitigation potential of NT agriculture, demonstrating that GHG mitigation by adoption of NT is much more variable and complex than previously considered, and policy plans to reduce global warming through this land management practice need further scrutiny to ensure success.

Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality : lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.

The contribution of maize cropping in the Midwest USA to global warming: A regional estimate

Agricultural soils emit about 50% of the global flux of N2O attributable to human influence, mostly in response to nitrogen fertilizer use. Recent evidence that the relationship between N2O fluxes and N-fertilizer additions to cereal maize are non-linear provides an opportunity to estimate regional N2O fluxes based on estimates of N application rates rather than as a simple percentage of N inputs as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We combined a simple empirical model of N2O production with the SOCRATES soil carbon dynamics model to estimate N2O and other sources of Global Warming Potential (GWP) from cereal maize across 19,000 cropland polygons in the North Central Region (NCR) of the US over the period 1964–2005. Results indicate that the loading of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from cereal maize production in the NCR was 1.7 Gt CO2e, with an average 268 t CO2e produced per tonne of grain. From 1970 until 2005, GHG emissions per unit product declined on average by 2.8 t CO2e ha−1 annum−1, coinciding with a stabilisation in N application rate and consistent increases in grain yield from the mid-1970’s. Nitrous oxide production from N fertilizer inputs represented 59% of these emissions, soil C decline (0–30 cm) represented 11% of total emissions, with the remaining 30% (517 Mt) from the combustion of fuel associated with farm operations. Of the 126 Mt of N fertilizer applied to cereal maize from 1964 to 2005, we estimate that 2.2 Mt N was emitted as N2O when using a non-linear response model, equivalent to 1.75% of the applied N.

Sensitivity of building zones to potential global warming

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal and energy performance of existing buildings, which are designed based on current weather data, may become unclear and remain a great concern. Through building computer simulation and qualitative analysis of the weighted factor for the outdoor temperature impact on building energy and thermal performance, this paper investigates the sensitivity of different office building zoning to the potential global warming. A standard office building type is examined for all eight capital cities in Australia. Results show that comparing the middle and top floors, except for cool climate (i.e. Hobart), the ground floor appears to be the most sensitive to the effect of global warming and has the highest tendency for a overheating problem. From the analysis of the responses of different zone orientations to the outdoor air temperature increase, it is also found that there are widely varied responses between zone orientations, with South zone (in the southern hemisphere) being the most sensitive. With an increased external air temperature, the variation between different floors or zone orientations will become more significant, up to 53 percent increase of overheating hours in Darwin and 47 percent increase of cooling load in Hobart.

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Energy use, indoor temperature and possible adaptation strategies for air-conditioned office buildings in face of global warming

This paper discusses and summarises a recent systematic study on the implication of global warming on air conditioned office buildings in Australia. Four areas are covered, including analysis of historical weather data, generation of future weather data for the impact study of global warming, projection of building performance under various global warming scenarios, and evaluation of various adaptation strategies under 2070 high global warming conditions. Overall, it is found that depending on the assumed future climate scenarios and the location considered, the increase of total building energy use for the sample Australian office building may range from 0.4 to 15.1%. When the increase of annual average outdoor temperature exceeds 2 °C, the risk of overheating will increase significantly. However, the potential overheating problem could be completely eliminated if internal load density is significantly reduced.

Global Warming : Impact on Building Design and Performance

Global warming is entailing new climatic conditions for the built environment. Such a warming climate will affect both the performance of existing building stock and the design of new buildings. In this article, the knowledge of global warming and climate change is first introduced. The cycling interaction between global warming and buildings is then presented. The impact of global warming on building energy use and thermal performance is also assessed. Finally, the potential mitigation and adaptation strategies to the global warming are discussed.

Status of current research on the implication of climate change on built environment

The cycling interaction between climate change and building performance is of dynamic nature and both are essentially the cause and the effect of each other. On one hand, buildings contribute significantly to the global warming process. On the other hand, climate change is also expected to impact on many aspects of building performance. In this paper, the status of current research on the implication of climate change on built environment is reviewed. It is found that although the present research has covered broad areas of research, they are generally only limited to the qualitative analyses. It is also highlighted that although it is widely realized that reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector is very important, the adoption of complementary adaptation strategy to prepare the building for a range of climate change scenarios is also necessary. Due to the lack of holistic approach to generate future hourly weather data, various approaches have been used to generate different key weather variables. This ad hoc situation has seriously hindered the application of building simulation technique to the climate change impact study, in particular, to provide quantitative information for policy and design development.

Impact of global warming on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behavior of existing air conditioned office buildings, which are typically designed based on current weather data, may also change. Through building computer simulations, this paper evaluates the impact of global warming on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia, including the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system, as well as the possible change in energy use and CO2 emission of Australian office buildings. It is found that the existing office buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. If the energy source is assumed to be the electricity, it is found that in comparison with current weather scenario, the increased energy uses would translate into the increase of CO2 emissions by 0 to 34.6 kg CO2 equivalent/m2, varying with different future weather scenarios and with different locations.

An investigation of building physical properties selection to combat global warming

Global warming can have a significant impact on building energy performance and indoor thermal environment, as well as the health and productivity of people living and working inside them. Through the building simulation technique, this paper investigates the adaptation potential of different selections of building physical properties to increased outdoor temperature in Australia. It is found that overall, an office building with lower insulation level, smaller window to wall ratio and/or a glass type with lower shading coefficient, and lower internal load density will have the effect of lowering building cooling load and total energy use, and therefore have a better potential to adapt to the warming external climate. Compared with clear glass, it is shown that the use of reflective glass for the sample building with WWR being 0.5 reduces the building cooling load by more than 12%. A lower internal load can also have a significant impact on the reduction of building cooling load, as well as the building energy use. Through the comparison of results between current and future weather scenarios, it is found that the patterns found in the current weather scenario also exist in the future weather scenarios, but to a smaller extent.