Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

The influence of climate variability on hydrological processes and surface and groundwater hydrochemistry : the tropical upper roper river catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

The Upper Roper River is one of the Australia’s unique tropical rivers which have been largely untouched by development. The Upper Roper River catchment comprises the sub-catchments of the Waterhouse River and Roper Creek, the two tributaries of the Roper River. There is a complex geological setting with different aquifer types. In this seasonal system, close interaction between surface water and groundwater contributes to both streamflow and sustaining ecosystems. The interaction is highly variable between seasons. A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed to investigate the different hydrological processes and geochemical parameters, and determine the baseline characteristics of water resources of this pristine catchment. In the catchment, long term average rainfall is around 850 mm and is summer dominant which significantly influences the total hydrological system. The difference between seasons is pronounced, with high rainfall up to 600 mm/month in the wet season, and negligible rainfall in the dry season. Canopy interception significantly reduces the amount of effective rainfall because of the native vegetation cover in the pristine catchment. Evaporation exceeds rainfall the majority of the year. Due to elevated evaporation and high temperature in the tropics, at least 600 mm of annual rainfall is required to generate potential recharge. Analysis of 120 years of rainfall data trend helped define “wet” and “dry periods”: decreasing trend corresponds to dry periods, and increasing trend to wet periods. The period from 1900 to 1970 was considered as Dry period 1, when there were years with no effective rainfall, and if there was, the intensity of rainfall was around 300 mm. The period 1970 – 1985 was identified as the Wet period 2, when positive effective rainfall occurred in almost every year, and the intensity reached up to 700 mm. The period 1985 – 1995 was the Dry period 2, with similar characteristics as Dry period 1. Finally, the last decade was the Wet period 2, with effective rainfall intensity up to 800 mm. This variability in rainfall over decades increased/decreased recharge and discharge, improving/reducing surface water and groundwater quantity and quality in different wet and dry periods. The stream discharge follows the rainfall pattern. In the wet season, the aquifer is replenished, groundwater levels and groundwater discharge are high, and surface runoff is the dominant component of streamflow. Waterhouse River contributes two thirds and Roper Creek one third to Roper River flow. As the dry season progresses, surface runoff depletes, and groundwater becomes the main component of stream flow. Flow in Waterhouse River is negligible, the Roper Creek dries up, but the Roper River maintains its flow throughout the year. This is due to the groundwater and spring discharge from the highly permeable Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers. Rainfall seasonality and lithology of both the catchment and aquifers are shown to influence water chemistry. In the wet season, dilution of water bodies by rainwater is the main process. In the dry season, when groundwater provides baseflow to the streams, their chemical composition reflects lithology of the aquifers, in particular the karstic areas. Water chemistry distinguishes four types of aquifer materials described as alluvium, sandstone, limestone and tufa. Surface water in the headwaters of the Waterhouse River, the Roper Creek and their tributaries are freshwater, and reflect the alluvium and sandstone aquifers. At and downstream of the confluence of the Roper River, river water chemistry indicates the influence of rainfall dilution in the wet season, and the signature of the Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers in the dry. Rainbow Spring on the Waterhouse River and Bitter Spring on the Little Roper River (known as Roper Creek at the headwaters) discharge from the Tindall Limestone. Botanic Walk Spring and Fig Tree Spring discharge into the Roper River from tufa. The source of water was defined based on water chemical composition of the springs, surface and groundwater. The mechanisms controlling surface water chemistry were examined to define the dominance of precipitation, evaporation or rock weathering on the water chemical composition. Simple water balance models for the catchment have been developed. The important aspects to be considered in water resource planning of this total system are the naturally high salinity in the region, especially the downstream sections, and how unpredictable climate variation may impact on the natural seasonal variability of water volumes and surface-subsurface interaction.

Corporate climate change-related governance practices and related disclosures : evidence from Australia

This paper investigates the climate change-related corporate governance disclosure practices of five major Australian energy-intensive companies over a 16-year period. In doing so, a content analysis instrument is developed to identify disclosures made in relation to various policies and procedures the organisations have in place for addressing the issues associated with climate change. This instrument is applied to the respective companies' annual reports and sustainability reports. An increasing trend is found in companies' climate change-related corporate governance disclosures over time; however, in many instances the disclosures provide limited insights into the climate change-related risks and opportunities confronting the sample companies.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

With the accelerated trend of global warming, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were typically designed based on current weather data, may not be able to cope with the future climate. This paper quantifies, through computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system. It is found from the sample office building examined that the existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. When the annual average temperature increase exceeds 2°C, the risk of current office buildings subjected to overheating will be significantly increased. For existing buildings which are designed with current climate condition, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings, in which the possible global warming has been taken into account in the design, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under 2070 High scenario would be required to improve the building thermal comfort level to an acceptable standard.

Airborne particulate matter at a bus station : concentration levels and governing parameters

Traffic emissions are an important contributor to ambient air pollution, especially in large cities featuring extensive and high density traffic networks. Bus fleets represent a significant part of inner city traffic causing an increase in exposure to general public, passengers and drivers along bus routes and at bus stations. Limited information is available on quantification of the levels, and governing parameters affecting the air pollution exposure at bus stations. The presented study investigated the bus emissions-dominated ambient air in a large, inner city bus station, with a specific focus on submicrometer particles. The study’s objectives were (i) quantification of the concentration levels; (ii) characterisation of the spatio-temporal variation; (iii) identification of the parameters governing the emissions levels at the bus station and (iv) assessment of the relationship between particle concentrations measured at the street level (background) and within the bus station. The results show that up to 90% of the emissions at the station are ultrafine particles (smaller than 100 nm), with the concentration levels up to 10 times the value of urban ambient air background (annual) and up to 4 times the local ambient air background. The governing parameters affecting particle concentration at the station were bus flow rate and meteorological conditions (wind velocity). Particle concentration followed a diurnal trend, with an increase in the morning and evening, associated with traffic rush hours. Passengers’ exposure could be significant compared to the average outdoor and indoor exposure levels.