Late Quaternary vegetation history of North Stradbroke Island, Queensland, eastern Australia

Currently there is a paucity of records of late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental variability available from the subtropics of Australia. The three continuous palaeoecological records presented here, from North Stradbroke Island, subtropical Queensland, assist in bridging this large spatial gap in the current state of knowledge. The dominance of arboreal taxa in the pollen records throughout the past >40,000 years is in contrast with the majority of records from temperate Australia, and indicates a positive moisture balance for North Stradbroke Island. The charcoal records show considerable inter-site variability indicating the importance of local-scale events on individual records, and highlighting the caution that needs to be applied when interpreting a single site as a regional record. The variability in the burning regimes is interpreted as being influenced by both climatic and human factors. Despite this inter-site variability, broad environmental trends are identifiable, with changes in the three records comparable with the OZ-INTIMATE climate synthesis for the last 35,000 years.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

The population dynamics of the Galapagos Flightless Cormorant Phalacrocorax harrisi in relation to sea temperature

The Flightless Cormorant Phalacrocorax harrisi is restricted to c. 400 km of the western coastline of the Galápagos archipelago coinciding with the local occurrence of seasonal upwelling of oceanic currents. Individuals frequently make more than one breeding attempt per year, usually change mates, and when juveniles are raised, females desert them to the further care of their mates who complete the rearing alone. Here we report data from a ten-year historical study of a colony stretching c.2 km along the coast-line and representing c. 12% of the total population of the species. The number of clutches laid and juveniles fledged were linked to the occurrence of cold water in off-shore foraging grounds. Most Flightless Cormorants have attachments to local stretches of coastline several hundred metres long. However, a few birds travelled many kilometres, including between colonies, sometimes over open sea. We show that males invest more in nest-building and feeding of the offspring than their mates, and we relate this to the (presumed) in-bred nature of the colony and to male and female reproductive strategies. Our data validate a published demographic model of the species (Valle 1995).

An observational analysis of the impact of board dynamics and directors’ participation on perceived board effectiveness

This study addresses calls for closer examination of board dynamics by offering an inside view of director interactions. Video-observations of three board meetings at each of two Australian corporations matched with director interviews and secondary data reveal distinct patterns of director interactions, their sources of variation and impact on perceived board effectiveness. Our data reveal that director interactions are multi-dimensional and dynamic: while group interactions across agenda items are similar, with a few directors leading the discussion, the contributing directors change across items. Moreover, directors’ inclusiveness and evenness of participation are associated with higher perceptions of board effectiveness. Last, we find that director interactions change with the nature of the items, board climate and board meeting arrangements. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the individual-level analysis of directors’ skills or independence, and offering a detailed view of how the joint group and individual dimensions of board dynamics affect board functioning.

Subsurface imaging of vegetation, climate, and root-zone moisture interactions

Changes in global climate and land use affect important prolesses from evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge to carbon storage and biochemical cycling. Near surface soil moisture is pivotal to understand the consequences of these changes. However, the dynamic interactions between vegetation and soil moisture remain largely unresolved because it is difficult to monitor and quantify subsurface hydrologic fluxes at relevant scales. Here we use electrical resistivity to monitor the influence of climate and vegetation on root-zone moisture, bridging the gap between remotely-sensed and in-situ point measurements. Our research quantifies large seasonal differences in root-zone moisture dynamics for a forest-grassland ecotone. We found large differences in effective rooting depth and moisture distributions for the two vegetation types. Our results highlight the likely impacts of land transformations on groun ter recharge, streamflow, and land-atmosphere exchanges.

Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

Investigation of the effect of balconies on natural ventilation of dwellings in high-rise residential buildings in subtropical climate

Balconies, as one of the main architectural features in subtropical climates, are assumed to enhance the ventilation performance of buildings by redirecting the wind. Although there are some studies on the effect of balconies on natural ventilation inside buildings, the majority have been conducted on single zone buildings with simple geometries. The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of balconies on the internal air flow pattern and ventilation performance of multi-storey residential buildings with internal partitions. To this end, a sample residential unit was selected for investigation and three different conditions tested, base case (no balcony), an open balcony and a semi-enclosed balcony. Computational Fluid Dynamics is used as an analysis method due to its accuracy and ability to provide detailed results. The cases are analysed in terms of average velocity, flow uniformity and number of Air Changes per Hour (ACH). The results suggest the introduction of a semi-enclosed balcony into high-rise dwellings improves the average velocity and flow uniformity. Integrating an open balcony results in reduction of the aforementioned parameters at 0° wind incidence.