Contradictions : Genre, causal layered analysis and analysis of institutional change

In what follows, I put forward an argument for an analytical method for social science that operates at the level of genre. I argue that generic convergence, generic hybridity, and generic instability provide us with a powerful perspectives on changes in political, cultural, and economic relationships, most specifically at the level of institutions. Such a perspective can help us identify the transitional elements, relationships, and trajectories that define the place of our current system in history, thereby grounding our understanding of possible futures.1 In historically contextualising our present with this method, my concern is to indicate possibilities for the future. Systemic contradictions indicate possibility spaces within which systemic change must and will emerge. We live in a system currently dominated by many fully-expressed contradictions, and so in the presence of many possible futures. The contradictions of the current age are expressed most overtly in the public genres of power politics. Contemporary public policy—indeed politics in general-is an excellent focus for any investigation of possible futures, precisely because of its future-oriented function. It is overtly hortatory; it is designed ‘to get people to do things’ (Muntigl in press: 147). There is no point in trying to get people to do things in the past. Consequently, policy discourse is inherently oriented towards creating some future state of affairs (Graham in press), along with concomitant ways of being, knowing, representing, and acting (Fairclough 2000).

The causal effect of income on health: Evidence from German reunification

We investigate whether therewas a causal effect of income changes on the health satisfaction of East and West Germans in the years following reunification. Our data source is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) between 1984 and 2002, and we fit a recently proposed fixed-effects ordinal estimator to our health measures and use a causal decomposition technique to account for panel attrition.We find evidence of a significant positive effect of income changes on health satisfaction, but the quantitative size of this effect is small. This is the case with respect to current income and a measure of ‘permanent’ income.

An empirical test of causal relationships of factors affecting ICT adoption for building project management : an Indian SME case study

Purpose - Building project management (BPM) requires effective coordination and collaboration between multiple project team organisations which can be achieved by real time information flow between all participants. In the present scenario, this can be achieved by the use of information communication technologies (ICT). The purpose of this paper is to present part of a research project conducted to study the causal relationships between factors affecting ICT adoption for BPM by small and medium enterprises. Design/methodology/approach - This paper discusses structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis conducted to test the causal relationships between quantitative factors. Data for quantitative analysis were gathered through a questionnaire survey conducted in the Indian construction industry. Findings - SEM analysis results help in demonstrating that an increased and matured use of ICT for general administration within the organisation would lead to: an improved ICT infrastructure within the organisation; development of electronic databases; and a staff that is confident of using information technology (IT) tools. In such a scenario, staff would use advanced software and IT technologies for project management (PM) processes and that would lead to an increased adoption of ICT for PM processes. But, for general administration also, ICT adoption would be enhanced if the organisation is interacting more with geographically separated agencies and senior management perceives that significant benefits would accrue by adoption of ICT. All the factors are inter-related and their effect cannot be maximized in isolation. Originality/value - The results provide direction to building project managements for strategically adopting the effective use of ICT within their organisations and for BPM general.

Fuelling traffic : abolitionist claims of a causal nexus between legalised prostitution and trafficking

Over the last decade, researchers and legislators have struggled to get an accurate picture of the scale and nature of the problem of human trafficking. In the absence of reliable data, some anti-prostitution activists have asserted that a causal relationship exists between legalised prostitution and human trafficking. They claim that systems of legalised or decriminalised prostitution lead to increases in trafficking into the sex industry. This paper critically analyses attempts to substantiate this claim during the development of anti-trafficking policy in Australia and the United States. These attempts are explored within the context of persistent challenges in measuring the scale and nature of human trafficking. The efforts of abolitionist campaigners to use statistical evidence and logical argumentation are analysed, with a specific focus on the characterisation of demand for sexual services and systems of legalised prostitution as ‘pull’ factors fuelling an increase in sex trafficking. The extent to which policymakers sought to introduce evidence-based policy is also explored.

Proximity-to-goal as a constraint on patterns of behaviour in attacker–defender dyads in team games

The aim of this study was to determine whether spatiotemporal interactions between footballers and the ball in 1 vs. 1 sub-phases are influenced by their proximity to the goal area. Twelve participants (age 15.3 ± 0.5 years) performed as attackers and defenders in 1 vs. 1 dyads across three field positions: (a) attacking the goal, (b) in midfield, and (c) advancing away from the goal area. In each position, the dribbler was required to move beyond an immediate defender with the ball towards the opposition goal. Interactions of attacker-defender dyads were filmed with player and ball displacement trajectories digitized using manual tracking software. One-way repeated measures analysis of variance was used to examine differences in mean defender-to-ball distance after this value had stabilized. Maximum attacker-to-ball distance was also compared as a function of proximity-to-goal. Significant differences were observed for defender-to-ball distance between locations (a) and (c) at the moment when the defender-to-ball distance had stabilized (a: 1.69 ± 0.64 m; c: 1.15 ± 0.59 m; P < 0.05). Findings indicate that proximity-to-goal influenced the performance of players, particularly when attacking or advancing away from goal areas, providing implications for training design in football. In this study, the task constraints of football revealed subtly different player interactions than observed in previous studies of dyadic systems in basketball and rugby union.

The power of historical causal components involved in engaging at risk youth at three alternative schools

This article addresses the causal powers associated with the social phenomena of alternative schooling for youth at risk. It stems from a doctoral thesis, Alternative Schooling Programs for At Risk Youth – Three Case Studies which addresses wider issues integral to alternative schooling: youth at risk, alternative schooling models, and literacy. This article explores one aspect of alternative schooling: the historical causal factors involved in the establishment and continuance of three alternative case study models in Queensland, Australia. By adhering to Bhaskar’s transformational model of social activity (TMSA) , social structures and individuals will be analytically distinguished to uncover their separate causal powers and how these have effected the establishment and continuance of three alternative schools.

Functional and advanced functional and causal relationship diagrams for remote condition monitoring

Analysing the condition of an asset is a big challenge as there can be many aspects which can contribute to the overall functional reliability of the asset that have to be considered. In this paper we propose a two-step functional and causal relationship diagram (FCRD) to address this problem. In the first step, the FCRD is designed to facilitate the analysis of the condition of an asset by evaluating the interdependence (functional and causal) relationships between different components of the asset with the help of a relationship diagram. This is followed by the advanced FCRD (AFCRD) which refines the information from the FCRD into a comprehensive and manageable format. This new two-step methodology for asset condition monitoring is tested and validated for the case of a water treatment plant. © IMechE 2012.

On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Inhaled particle counts on bicycle commute routes of low and high proximity to motorised traffic

Frequent exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) is associated with detrimental effects on cardiopulmonary function and health. UFP dose and therefore the associated health risk are a factor of exposure frequency, duration, and magnitude of (therefore also proximity to) a UFP emission source. Bicycle commuters using on-road routes during peak traffic times are sharing a microenvironment with high levels of motorised traffic, a major UFP emission source. Inhaled particle counts were measured along popular pre-identified bicycle commute route alterations of low (LOW) and high (HIGH) motorised traffic to the same inner-city destination at peak commute traffic times. During commute, real-time particle number concentration (PNC; mostly in the UFP range) and particle diameter (PD), heart and respiratory rate, geographical location, and meteorological variables were measured. To determine inhaled particle counts, ventilation rate was calculated from heart-rate-ventilation associations, produced from periodic exercise testing. Total mean PNC of LOW (compared to HIGH) was reduced (1.56 x e4 ± 0.38 x e4 versus 3.06 x e4 ± 0.53 x e4 ppcc; p = 0.012). Total estimated ventilation rate did not vary significantly between LOW and HIGH (43 ± 5 versus 46 ± 9 L•min; p = 0.136); however, due to total mean PNC, accumulated inhaled particle counts were 48% lower in LOW, compared to HIGH (7.6 x e8 ± 1.5 x e8 versus 14.6 x e8 ± 1.8 x e8; p = 0.003). For bicycle commuting at peak morning commute times, inhaled particle counts and therefore cardiopulmonary health risk may be substantially reduced by decreasing exposure to motorised traffic, which should be considered by both bicycle commuters and urban planners.

Referral patterns and proximity to palliative care inpatient services by level of socio-economic disadvantage : a national study using spatial analysis

Background: A range of health outcomes at a population level are related to differences in levels of social disadvantage. Understanding the impact of any such differences in palliative care is important. The aim of this study was to assess, by level of socio-economic disadvantage, referral patterns to specialist palliative care and proximity to inpatient services. Methods: All inpatient and community palliative care services nationally were geocoded (using postcode) to one nationally standardised measure of socio-economic deprivation – Socio-Economic Index for Areas (SEIFA; 2006 census data). Referral to palliative care services and characteristics of referrals were described through data collected routinely at clinical encounters. Inpatient location was measured from each person’s home postcode, and stratified by socio-economic disadvantage. Results: This study covered July – December 2009 with data from 10,064 patients. People from the highest SEIFA group (least disadvantaged) were significantly less likely to be referred to a specialist palliative care service, likely to be referred closer to death and to have more episodes of inpatient care for longer time. Physical proximity of a person’s home to inpatient care showed a gradient with increasing distance by decreasing levels of socio-economic advantage. Conclusion: These data suggest that a simple relationship of low socioeconomic status and poor access to a referral-based specialty such as palliative care does not exist. Different patterns of referral and hence different patterns of care emerge.

Utility of an alternative bicycle commute route of lower proximity to motorised traffic in decreasing exposure to ultra-fine particles, respiratory symptoms and airway inflammation - a structured exposure experiment

Background: Bicycle commuting in an urban environment of high air pollution is known as a potential health risk, especially for susceptible individuals. While risk management strategies aimed to reduce motorised traffic emissions exposure have been suggested, limited studies have assessed the utility of such strategies in real-world circumstances. Objectives: The potential of reducing exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP; < 0.1 µm) during bicycle commuting by lowering interaction with motorised traffic was investigated with real-time air pollution and acute inflammatory measurements in healthy individuals using their typical, and an alternative to their typical, bicycle commute route. Methods: Thirty-five healthy adults (mean ± SD: age = 39 ± 11 yr; 29% female) each completed two return trips of their typical route (HIGH) and a pre-determined altered route of lower interaction with motorised traffic (LOW; determined by the proportion of on-road cycle paths). Particle number concentration (PNC) and diameter (PD) were monitored in real-time in-commute. Acute inflammatory indices of respiratory symptom incidence, lung function and spontaneous sputum (for inflammatory cell analyses) were collected immediately pre-commute, and one and three hours post-commute. Results: LOW resulted in a significant reduction in mean PNC (1.91 x e4 ± 0.93 x e4 ppcc vs. 2.95 x e4 ± 1.50 x e4 ppcc; p ≤ 0.001). Besides incidence of in-commute offensive odour detection (42 vs. 56 %; p = 0.019), incidence of dust and soot observation (33 vs. 47 %; p = 0.038) and nasopharyngeal irritation (31 vs. 41 %; p = 0.007), acute inflammatory indices were not significantly associated to in-commute PNC, nor were these indices reduced with LOW compared to HIGH. Conclusions: Exposure to PNC, and the incidence of offensive odour and nasopharyngeal irritation, can be significantly reduced when utilising a strategy of lowering interaction with motorised traffic whilst bicycle commuting, which may bring important benefits for both healthy and susceptible individuals.