The causal effect of income on health: Evidence from German reunification

We investigate whether therewas a causal effect of income changes on the health satisfaction of East and West Germans in the years following reunification. Our data source is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) between 1984 and 2002, and we fit a recently proposed fixed-effects ordinal estimator to our health measures and use a causal decomposition technique to account for panel attrition.We find evidence of a significant positive effect of income changes on health satisfaction, but the quantitative size of this effect is small. This is the case with respect to current income and a measure of ‘permanent’ income.

Dealing with heterogeneity problems and causal effect estimation in entrepreneurship research

This paper deals with causal effect estimation strategies in highly heterogeneous empirical settings such as entrepreneurship. We argue that the clearer used of modern tools developed to deal with the estimation of causal effects in combination with our analysis of different sources of heterogeneity in entrepreneurship can lead to entrepreneurship with higher internal validity. We specifically lend support from the counterfactual logic and modern research of estimation strategies for causal effect estimation.

The effect of alcohol and drug consumption on academic performance : a treatment effect evaluation

It is often argued that consumption of alcohol, tobacco and drugs is detrimental to the cognitive abilities of teenagers. In order to disentangle a possible causal effect of these substances use from a self-selection bias, we control for pupils previous performance and for their previous rate of progression applying a DiDiD strategy. Using the NELS 1988 panel dataset, we find that the effects of alcohol and tobacco on test scores disappear once the selection bias is controlled for (this does not preclude long term detrimental effects). However, we find reliable evidence that heavy use of drugs (marijuana and cocaine) has direct detrimental effects on educational achievements. Hence, our results may have significant policy implications.

Who benefits from marriage?

The phenomenon that married men earn higher average wages than unmarried men, the so-called marriage premium, is well known. However, the robustness of the marriage premium across the wage distribution and the underlying causes of the marriage premium deserve closer scrutiny. Focusing on the entire wage distribution and employing recently developed semi-nonparametric tests for quantile treatment effects, our findings cast doubt on the robustness of the premium. We find that the premium is explained by selection above the median, whereas a positive premium is obtained only at very low wages. We argue that the causal effect at low wages is probably attributable to employer discrimination.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Impeding good governance implementation in Indonesian regional government : the effect of a bureaucratic generation gap

The implementation of ‘good governance’ in Indonesia’s regional government sector became a central tenet in governance research following the introduction of the national code for governance in 2006. The code was originally drafted in 1999 as a response to the Asian financial crises and many cases of unearthed corruption, collusion, and nepotism. It was reviewed in 2001 and again in 2006 to incorporate relevant political, economical, and social developments. Even though the national code exists along with many regional government decrees on good governance, the extent of implementation of the tenets of good governance in Indonesia’s regional government is still questioned. Previous research on good governance implementation in Indonesian regional government (Mardiasmo, Barnes and Sakurai, 2008) identified differences in the nature and depth of implementation between various Indonesian regional governments. This paper analyses and extends this recent work and explores key factors that may impede the implementation and sustained application of governance practices across regional settings. The bureaucratic culture of Indonesian regional government is one that has been shaped for over approximately 30 years, in particular during that of the Soeharto regime. Previous research on this regime suggests a bureaucratic culture with a mix of positive and negative aspects. On one hand Soeharto’s regime resulted in strong development growth and strong economic fundamentals, resulting in Indonesia being recognised as one of the Asian economic tigers prior to the 1997 Asian financial crises. The financial crises however revealed a bureaucratic culture that was rife with corruption, collusion, and nepotism. Although subsequent Indonesian governments have been committed to eradicating entrenched practices it seems apparent that the culture is ingrained within the bureaucracy and eradication of it will take time. Informants from regional government agree with this observation, as they identify good governance as an innovative mechanism and to implement it will mean a deviation from the “old ways.” Thus there is a need for a “changed” mind set in order to implement sustained governance practices. Such an exercise has proven to be challenging so far, as there is “hidden” resistance from within the bureaucracy to change its ways. The inertia of such bureaucratic cultures forms a tension against the opportunity for the implementation of good governance. From this context an emergent finding is the existence of a ‘bureaucratic generation gap’ as an impeding variable to enhanced and more efficient implementation of governance systems. It was found that after the Asian financial crises the Indonesian government (both at national and regional level) drew upon a wider human resources pool to fill government positions – including entrants from academia, the private sector, international institutions, foreign nationals and new graduates. It suggested that this change in human capital within government is at the core of this ‘inter-generational divide.’ This divergence is exemplified, at one extreme, by [older] bureaucrats who have been in-position for long periods of time serving during the extended Soeharto regime. The “new” bureaucrats have only sat in their positions since the end of Asian financial crisis and did not serve during Soeharto’s regime. It is argued that the existence of this generation gap and associated aspects of organisational culture have significantly impeded modernising governance practices across regional Indonesia. This paper examines the experiences of government employees in five Indonesian regions: Solok, Padang, Gorontalo, Bali, and Jakarta. Each regional government is examined using a mixed methodology comprising of on-site observation, document analysis, and iterative semi-structured interviewing. Drawing from the experiences of five regional governments in implementing good governance this paper seeks to better understand the causal contexts of variable implementation governance practices and to suggest enhancements to the development of policies for sustainable inter-generational change in governance practice across regional government settings.

An empirical test of causal relationships of factors affecting ICT adoption for building project management : an Indian SME case study

Purpose - Building project management (BPM) requires effective coordination and collaboration between multiple project team organisations which can be achieved by real time information flow between all participants. In the present scenario, this can be achieved by the use of information communication technologies (ICT). The purpose of this paper is to present part of a research project conducted to study the causal relationships between factors affecting ICT adoption for BPM by small and medium enterprises. Design/methodology/approach - This paper discusses structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis conducted to test the causal relationships between quantitative factors. Data for quantitative analysis were gathered through a questionnaire survey conducted in the Indian construction industry. Findings - SEM analysis results help in demonstrating that an increased and matured use of ICT for general administration within the organisation would lead to: an improved ICT infrastructure within the organisation; development of electronic databases; and a staff that is confident of using information technology (IT) tools. In such a scenario, staff would use advanced software and IT technologies for project management (PM) processes and that would lead to an increased adoption of ICT for PM processes. But, for general administration also, ICT adoption would be enhanced if the organisation is interacting more with geographically separated agencies and senior management perceives that significant benefits would accrue by adoption of ICT. All the factors are inter-related and their effect cannot be maximized in isolation. Originality/value - The results provide direction to building project managements for strategically adopting the effective use of ICT within their organisations and for BPM general.

Organisational change stressor and nursing job satisfaction : the mediating effect of coping strategies

Aim To examine the mediating effect of coping strategies on the consequences of nursing and non-nursing (administrative) stressors on the job satisfaction of nurses during change management. Background Organisational change can result in an increase in nursing and nonnursing- related stressors, which can have a negative impact on the job satisfaction of nurses employed in health-care organisations. Method Matched data were collected in 2009 via an online survey at two timepoints (six months apart). Results Partial least squares path analysis revealed a significant causal relationship between Time 1 administrative and role stressors and an increase in nursing-specific stressors in Time 2. A significant relationship was also identified between job-specific nursing stressors and the adoption of effective coping strategies to deal with increased levels of change-induced stress and strain and the likelihood of reporting higher levels of job satisfaction in Time 2. Conclusions The effectiveness of coping strategies is critical in helping nurses to deal with the negative consequences of organisational change. Implications for nursing management This study shows that there is a causal relationship between change, non-nursing stressors and job satisfaction. Senior management should implement strategies aimed at reducing nursing and nonnursing stress during change in order to enhance the job satisfaction of nurses. Keywords: Australia, change management, job satisfaction, nursing and non-nursing stressors, public and non-profit sector

The effect of prior visual information on recognition of speech and sounds

To identify and categorize complex stimuli such as familiar objects or speech, the human brain integrates information that is abstracted at multiple levels from its sensory inputs. Using cross-modal priming for spoken words and sounds, this functional magnetic resonance imaging study identified 3 distinct classes of visuoauditory incongruency effects: visuoauditory incongruency effects were selective for 1) spoken words in the left superior temporal sulcus (STS), 2) environmental sounds in the left angular gyrus (AG), and 3) both words and sounds in the lateral and medial prefrontal cortices (IFS/mPFC). From a cognitive perspective, these incongruency effects suggest that prior visual information influences the neural processes underlying speech and sound recognition at multiple levels, with the STS being involved in phonological, AG in semantic, and mPFC/IFS in higher conceptual processing. In terms of neural mechanisms, effective connectivity analyses (dynamic causal modeling) suggest that these incongruency effects may emerge via greater bottom-up effects from early auditory regions to intermediate multisensory integration areas (i.e., STS and AG). This is consistent with a predictive coding perspective on hierarchical Bayesian inference in the cortex where the domain of the prediction error (phonological vs. semantic) determines its regional expression (middle temporal gyrus/STS vs. AG/intraparietal sulcus).

Assessment on the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Both environmental economists and policy makers have shown a great deal of interest in the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency. In line with the modern resources available, however, no contribution is brought to the environmental economics field with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) application, which enables simulation from a distribution of a Markov chain and simulating from the chain until it approaches equilibrium. The probability density functions gained prominence with the advantages over classical statistical methods in its simultaneous inference and incorporation of any prior information on all model parameters. This paper concentrated on this point with the application of MCMC to the database of China, the largest developing country with rapid economic growth and serious environmental pollution in recent years. The variables cover the economic output and pollution abatement cost from the year 1992 to 2003. We test the causal direction between pollution abatement cost and environmental efficiency with MCMC simulation. We found that the pollution abatement cost causes an increase in environmental efficiency through the algorithm application, which makes it conceivable that the environmental policy makers should make more substantial measures to reduce pollution in the near future.

Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.

Does the microbiome play a causal role in spondyloarthritis?

The purpose of this study is to review the potential causal role of the microbiome in the pathogenesis of spondyloarthritis. The method used for the study is literature review. The microbiome plays a major role in educating the immune response. The microbiome is strongly implicated in inflammatory bowel disease which has clinical and genetic overlap with spondyloarthritis. The microbiome also plays a causal role in bowel and joint disease in HLA B27/human beta 2 microglobulin transgenic rats. The mechanism(s) by which HLA B27 could influence the microbiome is unknown but theories include an immune response gene selectivity, an effect on dendritic cell function, or a mucosal immunodeficiency. Bacteria are strongly implicated in the pathogenesis of spondyloarthritis. Studies to understand how HLA B27 affects bacterial ecosystems should be encouraged.

CYP19A1 fine-mapping and Mendelian randomization: Estradiol is causal for endometrial cancer

Candidate gene studies have reported CYP19A1 variants to be associated with endometrial cancer and with estradiol (E2) concentrations. We analyzed 2937 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 6608 endometrial cancer cases and 37 925 controls and report the first genome wide-significant association between endometrial cancer and a CYP19A1 SNP (rs727479 in intron 2, P=4.8x10(-11)). SNP rs727479 was also among those most strongly associated with circulating E2 concentrations in 2767 post-menopausal controls (P=7.4x10(-8)). The observed endometrial cancer odds ratio per rs727479 A-allele (1.15, CI=1.11-1.21) is compatible with that predicted by the observed effect on E2 concentrations (1.09, CI=1.03-1.21), consistent with the hypothesis that endometrial cancer risk is driven by E2. From 28 candidate-causal SNPs, 12 co-located with three putative gene-regulatory elements and their risk alleles associated with higher CYP19A1 expression in bioinformatical analyses. For both phenotypes, the associations with rs727479 were stronger among women with a higher BMI (Pinteraction=0.034 and 0.066 respectively), suggesting a biologically plausible gene-environment interaction.