How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Identification of theta-class glutathione S-transferase in liver cytosol of the marmoset monkey

The presence of theta-class glutathione S-transferase (GST) in marmoset monkey liver cytosol was investigated. An anti-peptide antibody targeted against the C-terminus of rGSTT1 reacted with a single band in marmoset liver cytosol that corresponded to a molecular weight of 28 kDa. The intensity of the immunoreactive band was not affected by treatment of marmoset monkeys with 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, phenobarbitone, rifampicin or clofibric acid. Similarly, activity towards methyl chloride (MC) was unaffected by these treatments. However, GST activity towards 1,2-epoxy3-(p- nitrophenoxy)-propane (EPNP) was increased in marmosets treated with phenobarbitone (2.6-fold) and rifampicin (2.6-fold), activity towards dichloromethane (DCM) was increased by 50% after treatment of marmosets with clofibric acid, and activity towards 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene (CDNB) was raised slightly (30-42% increases) after treatment with phenobarbitone, rifampicin or clofibric acid. Compared with humans, marmoset liver cytosol GST activity towards DCM was 18-fold higher, activity towards MC was 7 times higher and activity towards CDNB was 4 times higher. Further, EPNP activity was clearly detectable in marmoset liver cytosol samples, but was undetectable in human samples. Immunoreactive marmoset GST was partially purified by affinity chromatography using hexylglutathione-Sepharose and Orange A resin. The interaction of immunoreactive marmoset GST was similar to that found previously for rat and human GSTT1, suggesting that this protein is also a theta class GST. However, unlike rat GSTT1, the marmoset enzyme was not the major catalyst of EPNP conjugation. Instead, immunoreactivity was closely associated with activity towards MC. In conclusion, these results provide evidence for the presence of theta-class GST in the marmoset monkey orthologous to rGSTT1 and hGSTT1.