469 resultados para black oil model

em Queensland University of Technology - ePrints Archive


Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper takes its root in a trivial observation: management approaches are unable to provide relevant guidelines to cope with uncertainty, and trust of our modern worlds. Thus, managers are looking for reducing uncertainty through information’s supported decision-making, sustained by ex-ante rationalization. They strive to achieve best possible solution, stability, predictability, and control of “future”. Hence, they turn to a plethora of “prescriptive panaceas”, and “management fads” to bring simple solutions through best practices. However, these solutions are ineffective. They address only one part of a system (e.g. an organization) instead of the whole. They miss the interactions and interdependencies with other parts leading to “suboptimization”. Further classical cause-effects investigations and researches are not very helpful to this regard. Where do we go from there? In this conversation, we want to challenge the assumptions supporting the traditional management approaches and shed some lights on the problem of management discourse fad using the concept of maturity and maturity models in the context of temporary organizations as support for reflexion. Global economy is characterized by use and development of standards and compliance to standards as a practice is said to enable better decision-making by managers in uncertainty, control complexity, and higher performance. Amongst the plethora of standards, organizational maturity and maturity models hold a specific place due to general belief in organizational performance as dependent variable of (business) processes continuous improvement, grounded on a kind of evolutionary metaphor. Our intention is neither to offer a new “evidence based management fad” for practitioners, nor to suggest research gap to scholars. Rather, we want to open an assumption-challenging conversation with regards to main stream approaches (neo-classical economics and organization theory), turning “our eyes away from the blinding light of eternal certitude towards the refracted world of turbid finitude” (Long, 2002, p. 44) generating what Bernstein has named “Cartesian Anxiety” (Bernstein, 1983, p. 18), and revisit the conceptualization of maturity and maturity models. We rely on conventions theory and a systemic-discursive perspective. These two lenses have both information & communication and self-producing systems as common threads. Furthermore the narrative approach is well suited to explore complex way of thinking about organizational phenomena as complex systems. This approach is relevant with our object of curiosity, i.e. the concept of maturity and maturity models, as maturity models (as standards) are discourses and systems of regulations. The main contribution of this conversation is that we suggest moving from a neo-classical “theory of the game” aiming at making the complex world simpler in playing the game, to a “theory of the rules of the game”, aiming at influencing and challenging the rules of the game constitutive of maturity models – conventions, governing systems – making compatible individual calculation and social context, and possible the coordination of relationships and cooperation between agents with or potentially divergent interests and values. A second contribution is the reconceptualization of maturity as structural coupling between conventions, rather than as an independent variable leading to organizational performance.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This appendix describes the Order Fulfillment process followed by a fictitious company named Genko Oil. The process is freely inspired by the VICS (Voluntary Inter-industry Commerce Solutions) reference model1 and provides a demonstration of YAWL’s capabilities in modelling complex control-flow, data and resourcing requirements.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The black rat (Rattus rattus) has been shown to be the primary species responsible for causing significant crop losses within the Australian macadamia industry. This species success within macadamia orchards is directly related to the flexibility expressed in its foraging behaviour. In this paper a conceptual foraging model is presented which proposes that the utilisation of resources by rodents within various components of the system is related not only to their relative abundance, but also to predator avoidance behaviour. Nut removal from high predation risk habitats during periods of low resource abundance in low risk compartments of the system is considered an essential behaviour that allows high rodent densities to be maintained throughout the year.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is commonly seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The condition is characterised by chronic, systemic low-grade inflammation which affects nutritional status by a variety of mechanisms including reducing appetite and food intake and increasing muscle catabolism. PEW is linked with co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease, and is associated with lower quality of life, increased hospitalisations and a 6-fold increase in risk of death1. Significant gender differences have been found in the severity and effects of several markers of PEW. There have been limited studies testing the ability of anti-inflammatory agents or nutritional interventions to reduce the effects of PEW in dialysis patients. This thesis makes a significant contribution to the understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It advances understanding of measurement techniques for two of the key components, appetite and inflammation, and explores the effect of fish oil, an anti-inflammatory agent, on markers of PEW in dialysis patients. The first part of the thesis consists of two methodological studies conducted using baseline data. The first study aims to validate retrospective ratings of hunger, desire to eat and fullness on visual analog scales (VAS) (paper and pen and electronic) as a new method of measuring appetite in dialysis patients. The second methodological study aims to assess the ability of a variety of methods available in routine practice to detect the presence of inflammation. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the effect of 12 weeks supplementation with 2g per day of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA), a longchain fatty acid found in fish oil, on markers of PEW. A combination of biomarkers and psychomarkers of appetite and inflammation are the main outcomes being explored, with nutritional status, dietary intake and quality of life included as secondary outcomes. A lead in phase of 3 months prior to baseline was used so that each person acts as their own historical control. The study also examines whether there are gender differences in response to the treatment. Being an exploratory study, an important part of the work is to test the feasibility of the intervention, thus the level of adherence and factors associated with adherence are also presented. The studies were conducted at the hemodialysis unit of the Wesley Hospital. Participants met the following criteria: adult, stage 5 CKD on hemodialysis for at least 3 months, not expected to receive a transplant or switch to another dialysis modality during the study, absence of intellectual impairment or mental illness impairing ability to follow instructions or complete the intervention. A range of intermediate, clinical and patient-centred outcome measures were collected at baseline and 12 weeks. Inflammation was measured using five biomarkers: c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL6), intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM-1) and white cell count (WCC). Subjective appetite was measured using the first question from the Appetite and Dietary Assessment (ADAT) tool and VAS for measurements of hunger, desire to eat and fullness. A novel feature of the study was the assessment of the appetite peptides leptin, ghrelin and peptide YY as biomarkers of appetite. Nutritional status/inflammation was assessed using the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS) and the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Dietary intake was measured using 3-day records. Quality of life was measured using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form version 1.3 (KDQOL-SF™ v1.3 © RAND University), which combines the Short-Form 36 (SF36) with a kidney-disease specific module2. A smaller range of these variables was available for analysis during the control phase (CRP, ADAT, dietary intake and nutritional status). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 14 (SPSS Inc, Chicago IL, USA). Analysis of the first part of the thesis involved descriptive and bivariate statistics, as well as Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement between methods, and sensitivity analysis/ROC curves to test the ability of methods to predict the presence of inflammation. The unadjusted (paired ttests) and adjusted (linear mixed model) change over time is presented for the main outcome variables of inflammation and appetite. Results are shown for the whole group followed by analyses according to gender and adherence to treatment. Due to the exploratory nature of the study, trends and clinical significance were considered as important as statistical significance. Twenty-eight patients (mean age 61±17y, 50% male, dialysis vintage 19.5 (4- 101) months) underwent baseline assessment. Seven out of 28 patients (25%) reported sub-optimal appetite (self-reported as fair, poor or very poor) despite all being well nourished (100% SGA A). Using the VAS, ratings of hunger, but not desire to eat or fullness, were significantly (p<0.05) associated with a range of relevant clinical variables including age (r=-0.376), comorbidities (r=-0.380) nutritional status (PG-SGA score, r=-0.451), inflammatory markers (CRP r=-0.383; sICAM-1 r=-0.387) and seven domains of quality of life. Patients expressed a preference for the paper and pen method of administering VAS. None of the tools (appetite, MIS, PG-SGA, albumin or iron) showed an acceptable ability to detect patients who are inflamed. It is recommended that CRP should be tested more frequently as a matter of course rather than seeking alternative methods of measuring inflammation. 27 patients completed the 12 week intervention. 20 patients were considered adherent based on changes in % plasma EPA, which rose from 1.3 (0.94)% to 5.2 (1.1)%, p<0.001, in this group. The major barriers to adherence were forgetting to take the tablets as well as their size. At 12 weeks, inflammatory markers remained steady apart from the white cell count which decreased (7.6(2.5) vs 7.0(2.2) x109/L, p=0.058) and sVCAM-1 which increased (1685(654) vs 2249(925) ng/mL, p=0.001). Subjective appetite using VAS increased (51mm to 57mm, +12%) and there was a trend towards reduction in peptide YY (660(31) vs 600(30) pg/mL, p=0.078). There were some gender differences apparent, with the following adjusted change between baseline and week 12: CRP (males -3% vs females +17%, p=0.19), IL6 (males +17% vs females +48%, p=0.77), sICAM-1 (males -5% vs females +11%, p=0.07), sVCAM-1 (males +54% vs females +19%, p=0.08) and hunger ratings (males 20% vs females -5%, p=0.18). On balance, males experienced a maintainence or reduction in three inflammatory markers and an improvement in hunger ratings, and therefore appeared to have responded better to the intervention. Compared to those who didn’t adhere, adherent patients maintained weight (mean(SE) change: +0.5(1.6) vs - 0.8(1.2) kg, p=0.052) and fat-free mass (-0.1 (1.6) vs -1.8 (1.8) kg, p=0.045). There was no difference in change between the intervention and control phase for CRP, appetite, nutritional status or dietary intake. The thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base for understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It has advanced knowledge of methods of assessing inflammation and appetite. Retrospective ratings of hunger on a VAS appear to be a valid method of assessing appetite although samples which include patients with very poor appetite are required to confirm this. Supplementation with fish oil appeared to improve subjective appetite and dampen the inflammatory response. The effectiveness of the intervention is influenced by gender and adherence. Males appear to be more responsive to the primary outcome variables than females, and the quality of response is improved with better adherence. These results provide evidence to support future interventions aimed at reducing the effects of PEW in dialysis patients.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In asset intensive industries such as mining, oil & gas, utilities etc. most of the capital expenditure happens on acquiring engineering assets. Process of acquiring assets is called as “Procurement” or “Acquisition”. An asset procurement decision should be taken in consideration with the installation, commissioning, operational, maintenance and disposal needs of an asset or spare. However, such cross-functional collaboration and communication does not appear to happen between engineering, maintenance, warehousing and procurement functions in many asset intensive industries. Acquisition planning and execution are two distinct parts of asset acquisition process. Acquisition planning or procurement planning is responsible for determining exactly what is required to be purchased. It is important that an asset acquisition decision is the result of cross-functional decision making process. An acquisition decision leads to a formal purchase order. Most costly asset decisions occur even before they are acquired. Therefore, acquisition decision should be an outcome of an integrated planning & decision making process. Asset intensive organizations both, Government and non Government in Australia spent AUD 102.5 Billion on asset acquisition in year 2008-09. There is widespread evidence of many assets and spare not being used or utilized and in the end are written off. This clearly shows that many organizations end up buying assets or spares which were not required or non-conforming to the needs of user functions. It is due the fact that strategic and software driven procurement process do not consider all the requirements from various functions within the organization which contribute to the operation and maintenance of the asset over its life cycle. There is a lot of research done on how to implement an effective procurement process. There are numerous software solutions available for executing a procurement process. However, not much research is done on how to arrive at a cross functional procurement planning process. It is also important to link procurement planning process to procurement execution process. This research will discuss ““Acquisition Engineering Model” (AEM) framework, which aims at assisting acquisition decision making based on various criteria to satisfy cross-functional organizational requirements. Acquisition Engineering Model (AEM) will consider inputs from corporate asset management strategy, production management, maintenance management, warehousing, finance and HSE. Therefore, it is essential that the multi-criteria driven acquisition planning process is carried out and its output is fed to the asset acquisition (procurement execution) process. An effective procurement decision making framework to perform acquisition planning which considers various functional criteria will be discussed in this paper.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Contends that South African universities must find admissions criteria, other than high school grades, that are both fair and valid for Black applicants severely disadvantaged by an inferior school education. The use of traditional intellectual assessments and aptitude tests for disadvantaged and minority students remains controversial as a fair assessment; they do not take account of potential for change. In this study, therefore, a measure of students' cognitive modifiability, assessed by means of an interactive assessment model, was added as a moderator of traditional intellectual assessment in predicting 1st-yr university success. Cognitive modifiability significantly moderated the predictive validity of the traditional intellectual assessment for 52 disadvantaged Black students. The higher the level of cognitive modifiability, the less effective were traditional methods for predicting academic success and vice versa.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This chapter discusses an action research project into the lived experience of the workplace mobbing phenomenon. The action research methodology is based on the exemplarian model (Coenen & Khonraad, 2003) from the Netherlands Group. This model requires positive outcomes for those immersed in the problem to reduce the adversity of their circumstances. The findings challenge the psychological perspective of the existing bullying literature that tends to focus on individual behaviour. This research, undertaken over a three year period with 212 participants, identified the dysfunctional nature of public sector bureaucracies and the power gained through gossip and rumour as some of the key emergent themes to explain the workplace mobbing problem. In addition, resistance, conscientisation, and agency were identified as the key to transformation for those targeted. The discussion focuses on the crystallisation phase of the exemplarian model where the participants identified themselves as the Black Sheep and adopted the motto that “a black sheep is a biting beast” (Bastard, 1565 or 6-1618, p. 90), reflecting a sense of empowerment, individual agency, and a sense of humour in dealing with the serious yet seemingly absurd reality of their situations. The identity of the Black Sheep was consolidated when the group organised a 2 day conference with over 200 attendees to discuss how best to prevent workplace mobbing. This self-affirming action was a proactive step towards metaphorically “biting back” at the problem. A number of positive outcomes were achieved including the conference with over 200 attending leading to national media coverage across Australia and additional interviews with magazines, newspapers, and radio.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Power system restoration after a large area outage involves many factors, and the procedure is usually very complicated. A decision-making support system could then be developed so as to find the optimal black-start strategy. In order to evaluate candidate black-start strategies, some indices, usually both qualitative and quantitative, are employed. However, it may not be possible to directly synthesize these indices, and different extents of interactions may exist among these indices. In the existing black-start decision-making methods, qualitative and quantitative indices cannot be well synthesized, and the interactions among different indices are not taken into account. The vague set, an extended version of the well-developed fuzzy set, could be employed to deal with decision-making problems with interacting attributes. Given this background, the vague set is first employed in this work to represent the indices for facilitating the comparisons among them. Then, a concept of the vague-valued fuzzy measure is presented, and on that basis a mathematical model for black-start decision-making developed. Compared with the existing methods, the proposed method could deal with the interactions among indices and more reasonably represent the fuzzy information. Finally, an actual power system is served for demonstrating the basic features of the developed model and method.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), a marker for vitamin D status, is associated with bone health and possibly cancers and other diseases; yet, the determinants of 25(OH)D status, particularly ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, are poorly understood. Determinants of 25(OH)D were analyzed in a subcohort of 1,500 participants of the US Radiologic Technologists (USRT) Study that included whites (n 842), blacks (n 646), and people of other races/ethnicities (n 12). Participants were recruited monthly (20082009) across age, sex, race, and ambient UVR level groups. Questionnaires addressing UVR and other exposures were generally completed within 9 days of blood collection. The relation between potential determinants and 25(OH)D levels was examined through regression analysis in a random two-thirds sample and validated in the remaining one third. In the regression model for the full study population, age, race, body mass index, some seasons, hours outdoors being physically active, and vitamin D supplement use were associated with 25(OH)D levels. In whites, generally, the same factors were explanatory. In blacks, only age and vitamin D supplement use predicted 25(OH)D concentrations. In the full population, determinants accounted for 25 of circulating 25(OH)D variability, with similar correlations for subgroups. Despite detailed data on UVR and other factors near the time of blood collection, the ability to explain 25(OH)D was modest.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Tilting-pad hydrodynamic thrust bearings are used in hydroelectric power stations around the world, reliably supporting turbines weighing hundreds of tonnes, over decades of service. Newer designs incorporate hydrostatic recesses machined into the sector-shaped pads to enhance oil film thickness at low rotational speeds. External pressurisation practically eliminates wear and enhances service life and reliability. It follows that older generating plants, lacking such assistance, stand to benefit from being retrofitted with hydrostatic lubrication systems. The design process is not trivial however. The need to increase the groove size to permit spontaneous lifting of the turbine under hydrostatic pressure, conflicts with the need to preserve performance of the original plane pad design. A haphazardly designed recess can induce a significant rise in bearing temperature concomitant with reduced mechanical efficiency and risk of thermal damage. In this work, a numerical study of a sector-shaped pad is undertaken to demonstrate how recess size and shape can affect the performance of a typical bearing.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The topic of “the cloud” has attracted significant attention throughout the past few years (Cherry 2009; Sterling and Stark 2009) and, as a result, academics and trade journals have created several competing definitions of “cloud computing” (e.g., Motahari-Nezhad et al. 2009). Underpinning this article is the definition put forward by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology, which describes cloud computing as “a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction” (Garfinkel 2011, p. 3). Despite the lack of consensus about definitions, however, there is broad agreement on the growing demand for cloud computing. Some estimates suggest that spending on cloudrelated technologies and services in the next few years may climb as high as USD 42 billion/year (Buyya et al. 2009).

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper uses examples from the history and practices of multi-national and large companies in the oil, chemical and asbestos industries to examine their legal and illegal despoiling and destruction of the environment and impact on human and non-human life. The discussion draws on the literature on green criminology and state-corporate crime and considers measures and arrangements that might mitigate or prevent such damaging acts. This paper is part of ongoing work on green criminology and crimes of the economy. It places these actions and crimes in the context of a global neo-liberal economic system and considers and critiques the distorting impact of the GDP model of ‘economic health’ and its consequences for the environment.