Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Vitronectin modulates human mesenchymal stem cell response to insulin-like growth factor-I and transforming growth factor beta 1 in a serum-free environment

The use of animal sera for the culture of therapeutically important cells impedes the clinical use of the cells. We sought to characterize the functional response of human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) to specific proteins known to exist in bone tissue with a view to eliminating the requirement of animal sera. Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), via IGF binding protein-3 or -5 (IGFBP-3 or -5) and transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta(1)) are known to associate with the extracellular matrix (ECM) protein vitronectin (VN) and elicit functional responses in a range of cell types in vitro. We found that specific combinations of VN, IGFBP-3 or -5, and IGF-I or TGF-beta(1) could stimulate initial functional responses in hMSCs and that IGF-I or TGF-beta(1) induced hMSC aggregation, but VN concentration modulated this effect. We speculated that the aggregation effect may be due to endogenous protease activity, although we found that neither IGF-I nor TGF-beta(1) affected the functional expression of matrix metalloprotease-2 or -9, two common proteases expressed by hMSCs. In summary, combinations of the ECM and growth factors described herein may form the basis of defined cell culture media supplements, although the effect of endogenous protease expression on the function of such proteins requires investigation.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

A functional screen identifies lateral transfer of beta-glucuronidase (gus) from bacteria to fungi

Lateral gene transfer (LGT) from prokaryotes to microbial eukaryotes is usually detected by chance through genome-sequencing projects. Here, we explore a different, hypothesis-driven approach. We show that the fitness advantage associated with the transferred gene, typically invoked only in retrospect, can be used to design a functional screen capable of identifying postulated LGT cases. We hypothesized that beta-glucuronidase (gus) genes may be prone to LGT from bacteria to fungi (thought to lack gus) because this would enable fungi to utilize glucuronides in vertebrate urine as a carbon source. Using an enrichment procedure based on a glucose-releasing glucuronide analog (cellobiouronic acid), we isolated two gus(+) ascomycete fungi from soils (Penicillium canescens and Scopulariopsis sp.). A phylogenetic analysis suggested that their gus genes, as well as the gus genes identified in genomic sequences of the ascomycetes Aspergillus nidulans and Gibberella zeae, had been introgressed laterally from high-GC gram(+) bacteria. Two such bacteria (Arthrobacter spp.), isolated together with the gus(+) fungi, appeared to be the descendants of a bacterial donor organism from which gus had been transferred to fungi. This scenario was independently supported by similar substrate affinities of the encoded beta-glucuronidases, the absence of introns from fungal gus genes, and the similarity between the signal peptide-encoding 5' extensions of some fungal gus genes and the Arthrobacter sequences upstream of gus. Differences in the sequences of the fungal 5' extensions suggested at least two separate introgression events after the divergence of the two main Euascomycete classes. We suggest that deposition of glucuronides on soils as a result of the colonization of land by vertebrates may have favored LGT of gus from bacteria to fungi in soils.