Imported Dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous Dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia

BACKGROUND Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

Phylogeographical relationships of Sicilian brown trout and the effects of genetic introgression on morphospace occupation

Genetic introgression of aquaculture stocks in local forms is well documented in many fish species but their evolutionary consequences for the local populations have not been thoroughly explored. Due to its wide geographical range, the existence of many locally adapted forms and the frequent occurrence of introgression of aquaculture stocks in local forms, brown trout represents the ideal system to study the effects of such introgressions. Here, we focus on a group of rivers and streams in Sicily (Italy), and, by using molecular tools, we show that autochthonous populations are probably derived from the Southern Atlantic clade, which is present in the Iberian peninsula and North Africa. Three out of the four studied rivers reveal signs of genetic introgression of domestic stocks. Finally, by using advanced geometric morphometric analyses, we show that genetic introgression produces a higher degree of morphological variability relative to that observed in non-introgressed populations.

Evolution of a ~2.7 Ga large igneous province: A volcanological, geochemical and geochronological study of the Agnew Greenstone Belt, and new regional correlations for the Kalgoorlie Terrane (Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia)

The thick package of ~2.7 Ga mafic and ultramafic lavas and intrusions preserved among the Neoarchean of the Kalgoorlie Terrene in Western Australia provides valuable insight into geological processes controlling the most prodigious episode of growth and preservation of juvenile continental crust in Earth’s history. Limited exposure of these rocks results in uncertainty about their age, physical and chemical characteristics, and stratigraphic relationships. This in turn prevents confident correlation of regional occurrences of mafic and ultramafic successions (both intrusive and extrusive) and hinders the interpretation of tectonic setting and magmatic evolution. A recent stratigraphic drilling program of the Neoarchean stratigraphy of the Agnew Greenstone Belt in Western Australia has provided continuous exposures through a c. 7 km thick sequence of mafic and ultramafic units. In this study, we present a volcanological, lithogeochemical and chronological study of the Agnew Greenstone Belt, and provide the first pre-2690 Ma regional correlation across the Kalgoorlie Terrane. The Agnew Greenstone Belt records ~30 m.y. of episodic ultramafic-mafic magmatism that includes two cycles, each defined by a komatiite that is overlain by units that become more evolved and contaminated with time. The sequence is divided into nine conformable packages, each consisting of stacked subaqueous lava flows and comagmatic intrusions, as well as two sills without associated extrusions. Lavas, with the exception of intercalations between two units, form a layer-cake stratigraphy and were likely erupted from a system of fissures tapping the same magma source. The komatiites are not contaminated by continental crust ([La/Sm]PM ~0.7) and are of the Al-undepleted Munro-type. Crustal contamination is evident in many units (Songvang Basalt, Never Can Tell Basalt, Redeemer Basalt, and Turrett Dolerite), as judged by [La/Sm]>1, negative Nb and Ti anomalies, and geochemical mixing trends towards felsic contaminants. Crystal fractionation was also significant, with early olivine and chromite (Mg#>65) followed by plagioclase and clinopyroxene removal (Mg<65), and in the most evolved case, titanomagnetite accumulation. Three new TIMS dates on granophyric zones of mafic sills and one ICP-MS date from an interflow felsic tuff are presented and used for regional stratigraphic correlation. Cycle I magmatism began at ~2720 Ma and ended ~2705 Ma, whereas cycle II began ~2705 Ma and ended at 2690.7±1.2 Ma. Regional correlations indicate the western Kalgoorlie Terrane consists of a remarkably similar stratigraphy that can be recognised at Agnew, Ora Banda and Coolgardie, whereas the eastern part of the terrane (e.g., Kambalda Domain) does not include cycle I, but correlates well with cycle II. This research supports an autochthonous model of greenstone formation, in which one large igneous province, represented by two complete cycles, is constructed on sialic crust. New stratigraphic correlations for the Kalgoorlie Terrane indicate that many units can be traced over distances >100 km, which has implications for exploration targeting for stratigraphically hosted ultramafic Ni and VMS deposits.