Predicting behaviour to reduce stroke risk in at-risk populations : the role of beliefs

Aims: Changing behaviour to reduce stroke risk is a difficult prospect made particularly complex because of psychological factors. This study examined predictors of intentions and behaviours to reduce stroke risk in a sample of at-risk individuals, seeking to find how knowledge and health beliefs influenced both intention and actual behaviour to reduce stroke risk. Methods: A repeated measures design was used to assess behavioural intentions at time 1 (T1) and subsequent behaviour (T2). One hundred and twenty six respondents completed an online survey at T1, and behavioural follow-up data were collected from approximately 70 participants 1 month later. Predictors were stroke knowledge, demographic variables, and beliefs about stroke that were derived from an expanded health belief model. Dependent measures were: exercise and weight loss, and intention to engage in these behaviours to reduce stroke risk. Findings: Multiple hierarchical regression analyses showed that, for exercise and weight loss respectively, different health beliefs predicted intention to control stroke risk. The most important exercise-related health beliefs were benefits, susceptibility, and self-efficacy; for weight loss, the most important beliefs were barriers, and to a lesser degree, susceptibility and subjective norm. Conclusions: Health beliefs may play an important role in stroke prevention, particularly beliefs about susceptibility because these emerged for both behaviours. Stroke education and prevention programmes that selectively target the health beliefs relevant to specific behaviours may prove most efficacious.

The Queensland high risk foot form (QHRFF): Is it a reliable and valid clinical research tool for foot disease?

Background Foot disease complications, such as foot ulcers and infection, contribute to considerable morbidity and mortality. These complications are typically precipitated by “high-risk factors”, such as peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease. High-risk factors are more prevalent in specific “at risk” populations such as diabetes, kidney disease and cardiovascular disease. To the best of the authors’ knowledge a tool capturing multiple high-risk factors and foot disease complications in multiple at risk populations has yet to be tested. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and reliability of a Queensland High Risk Foot Form (QHRFF) tool. Methods The study was conducted in two phases. Phase one developed a QHRFF using an existing diabetes foot disease tool, literature searches, stakeholder groups and expert panel. Phase two tested the QHRFF for validity and reliability. Four clinicians, representing different levels of expertise, were recruited to test validity and reliability. Three cohorts of patients were recruited; one tested criterion measure reliability (n = 32), another tested criterion validity and inter-rater reliability (n = 43), and another tested intra-rater reliability (n = 19). Validity was determined using sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). Reliability was determined using Kappa, weighted Kappa and intra-class correlation (ICC) statistics. Results A QHRFF tool containing 46 items across seven domains was developed. Criterion measure reliability of at least moderate categories of agreement (Kappa > 0.4; ICC > 0.75) was seen in 91% (29 of 32) tested items. Criterion validity of at least moderate categories (PPV > 0.7) was seen in 83% (60 of 72) tested items. Inter- and intra-rater reliability of at least moderate categories (Kappa > 0.4; ICC > 0.75) was seen in 88% (84 of 96) and 87% (20 of 23) tested items respectively. Conclusions The QHRFF had acceptable validity and reliability across the majority of items; particularly items identifying relevant co-morbidities, high-risk factors and foot disease complications. Recommendations have been made to improve or remove identified weaker items for future QHRFF versions. Overall, the QHRFF possesses suitable practicality, validity and reliability to assess and capture relevant foot disease items across multiple at risk populations.

Perceived environmental correlates and physical activity: What neighborhood aspects really matter for mothers and fathers of young children?

Limited research has been conducted with at-risk populations in examining perceived environmental correlates of physical activity (PA); thus, we examined this relationship among parents with young children, a group at risk for physical inactivity. Parents (252 mothers, 206 fathers) completed a questionnaire assessing measures of perceived neighborhood environment and a 1-week follow-up of PA behavior. Mothers were more likely than fathers to perceive their neighborhood as unsafe to go for walks at night and less likely to perceive transit stops within 10–15 minutes walking distance, sidewalks on most streets, and facilities to bicycle. Adjusting for demographics, shops within easy walking distance, sidewalks on most streets, and having no more than one motor vehicle were associated with being active for both sexes. Access to transit stops and free/low cost recreational facilities were also associated with mothers’ PA. These findings suggest that environmental factors may support parents being active at recommended levels.

The epidemiology of basal cell carcinoma

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a skin cancer of particular importance to the Australian community. Its rate of occurrence is highest in Queensland, where 1% to 2% of people are newly affected annually. This is an order of magnitude higher than corresponding incidence estimates in European and North American populations. Individuals with a sun-sensitive complexion are particularly susceptible because sun exposure is the single most important causative agent, as shown by the anatomic distribution of BCC which is in general consistent with the levels of sun exposure across body sites. A distinguishing feature of BCC is the occurrence of multiple primary tumours within individuals, synchronously or over time, and their diagnosis and treatment costs contribute substantially to the major public health burden caused by BCC. A primary knowledge gap about BCC pathogenesis however was an understanding of the true frequency of multiple BCC occurrences and their body distribution, and why a proportion of people do develop more than one BCC in their life. This research project sought to address this gap under an overarching research aim to better understand the detailed epidemiology of BCC with the ultimate goal of reducing the burden of this skin cancer through prevention. The particular aim was to document prospectively the rate of BCC occurrence and its associations with constitutional and environmental (solar) factors, all the while paying special attention to persons affected by more than one BCC. The study built on previous findings and recent developments in the field but set out to confirm and extend these and propose more adequate theories about the complex epidemiology of this cancer. Addressing these goals required a new approach to researching basal cell carcinoma, due to the need to account for the phenomenon of multiple incident BCCs per person. This was enabled by a 20 year community-based study of skin cancer in Australians that provided the methodological foundation for this thesis. Study participants were originally randomly selected in 1986 from the electoral register of all adult residents of the subtropical township of Nambour in Queensland, Australia. On various occasions during the study, participants were fully examined by dermatologists who documented cumulative photodamage as well as skin cancers. Participants completed standard questionnaires about skin cancer-related factors, and consented to have any diagnosed skin cancers notified to the investigators by regional pathology laboratories in Queensland. These methods allowed 100% ascertainment of histologically confirmed BCCs in this study population. 1339 participants had complete follow-up to the end of 2007. Statistical analyses in this thesis were carried out using SAS and SUDAAN statistical software packages. Modelling methods, including multivariate logistic regressions, allowed for repeated measures in terms of multiple BCCs per person. This innovative approach gave new findings on two levels, presented in five chapters as scientific papers: 1. Incidence of basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and detailed anatomic distribution: longitudinal study of an Australian population The incidence of people affected multiple times by BCC was 705 per 100,000 person years compared to an incidence rate of people singly affected of 935 per 100,000 person years. Among multiply and singly affected persons alike, site-specific BCC incidence rates were far highest on facial subsites, followed by upper limbs, trunk, and then lower limbs 2. Melanocytic nevi and basal cell carcinoma: is there an association? BCC risk was significantly increased in those with forearm nevi (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.43, 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 1.09-1.89) compared to people without forearm nevi, especially among those who spent their time mainly outdoors (OR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3) compared to those who spent their time mainly indoors. Nevi on the back were not associated with BCC. 3. Clinical signs of photodamage are associated with basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and site: a 16-year longitudinal study Over a 16-year follow-up period, 58% of people affected by BCC developed more than one BCC. Among these people 60% developed BCCs across different anatomic sites. Participants with high numbers of solar keratoses, compared to people without solar keratoses, were most likely to experience the highest BCC counts overall (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-13.5). Occurrences of BCC on the trunk (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-7.6) and on the limbs (OR 3.7, 95%CI 2.0-7.0) were strongly associated with high numbers of solar keratoses on these sites. 4. Occurrence and determinants of basal cell carcinoma by histological subtype in an Australian community Among 1202 BCCs, 77% had a single growth pattern and 23% were of mixed histological composition. Among all BCCs the nodular followed by the superficial growth patterns were commonest. Risk of nodular and superficial BCCs on the head was raised if 5 or more solar keratoses were present on the face (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.2-2.7 and OR 4.5, 95%CI 2.1-9.7 respectively) and similarly on the trunk in the presence of multiple solar keratoses on the trunk (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.5-11.9 and OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.1-4.4 respectively). 5. Basal cell carcinoma and measures of cumulative sun exposure: an Australian longitudinal community-based study Dermal elastosis was more likely to be seen adjacent to head and neck BCCs than trunk BCCs (p=0.01). Severity of dermal elastosis increased on each site with increasing clinical signs of cutaneous sun damage on that site. BCCs that occurred without perilesional elastosis per se, were always found in an anatomic region with signs of photodamage. This thesis thus has identified the magnitude of the burden of multiple BCCs. It does not support the view that people affected by more than one BCC represent a distinct group of people who are prone to BCCs on certain body sites. The results also demonstrate that BCCs regardless of site, histology or order of occurrence are strongly associated with cumulative sun exposure causing photodamage to the skin, and hence challenge the view that BCCs occurring on body sites with typically low opportunities for sun exposure or of the superficial growth pattern are different in their association with the sun from those on typically sun-exposed sites, or nodular BCCs, respectively. Through dissemination in the scientific and medical literature, and to the community at large, these findings can ultimately assist in the primary and secondary prevention of BCC, perhaps especially in high-risk populations.

Predicting intentions and behaviours in populations with or at-risk of diabetes: A systematic review

Purpose To systematically review the Theory of Planned Behaviour studies predicting self-care intentions and behaviours in populations with and at-risk of diabetes. Methods A systematic review using six electronic databases was conducted in 2013. A standardised protocol was used for appraisal. Studies eligibility included a measure of behaviour for healthy eating, physical activity, glucose monitoring, medication use (ii) the TPB variables (iii) the TPB tested in populations with diabetes or at-risk. Results Sixteen studies were appraised for testing the utility of the TPB. Studies included cross-sectional (n=7); prospective (n=5) and randomised control trials (n=4). Intention (18% – 76%) was the most predictive construct for all behaviours. Explained variance for intentions were similar across cross-sectional (28 -76%); prospective (28 -73%); and RCT studies (18 - 63%). RCTs (18 - 43%) provided slightly stronger evidence for predicting behaviour. Conclusions Few studies tested predictability of the TPB in populations with or at-risk of diabetes. This review highlighted differences in the predictive utility of the TPB suggesting that the model is behaviour and population specific. Findings on key determinants of specific behaviours contribute to a better understanding of mechanisms of behaviour change and are useful in designing targeted behavioural interventions for different diabetes populations.

Study of miRNA polymorphisms and their potential association with breast cancer risk in Australian Caucasian populations

This project established a large and well characterised prospective breast cancer DNA biobank and used this biobank to conduct genetic studies in breast cancer. The thesis presented the results of these high-throughput genotyping studies in two separate Australian Caucasian case-control populations and identified association between three novel genetic variants in microRNA genes and breast cancer risk.

Prevalence of foot disease and risk factors in general inpatient populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To systematically review studies reporting the prevalence in general adult inpatient populations of foot disease disorders (foot wounds, foot infections, collective ‘foot disease’) and risk factors (peripheral arterial disease (PAD), peripheral neuropathy (PN), foot deformity). Methods: A systematic review of studies published between 1980 and 2013 was undertaken using electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL). Keywords and synonyms relating to prevalence, inpatients, foot disease disorders and risk factors were used. Studies reporting foot disease or risk factor prevalence data in general inpatient populations were included. Included study's reference lists and citations were searched and experts consulted to identify additional relevant studies. 2 authors, blinded to each other, assessed the methodological quality of included studies. Applicable data were extracted by 1 author and checked by a second author. Prevalence proportions and SEs were calculated for all included studies. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated using random-effects models where 3 eligible studies were available. Results: Of the 4972 studies initially identified, 78 studies reporting 84 different cohorts (total 60 231 517 participants) were included. Foot disease prevalence included: foot wounds 0.01–13.5% (70 cohorts), foot infections 0.05–6.4% (7 cohorts), collective foot disease 0.2–11.9% (12 cohorts). Risk factor prevalence included: PAD 0.01–36.0% (10 cohorts), PN 0.003–2.8% (6 cohorts), foot deformity was not reported. Pooled prevalence estimates were only able to be calculated for pressure ulcer-related foot wounds 4.6% (95% CI 3.7% to 5.4%)), diabetes-related foot wounds 2.4% (1.5% to 3.4%), diabetes-related foot infections 3.4% (0.2% to 6.5%), diabetes-related foot disease 4.7% (0.3% to 9.2%). Heterogeneity was high in all pooled estimates (I2=94.2–97.8%, p<0.001). Conclusions: This review found high heterogeneity, yet suggests foot disease was present in 1 in every 20 inpatients and a major risk factor in 1 in 3 inpatients. These findings are likely an underestimate and more robust studies are required to provide more precise estimates.

Shaping the 'at-risk' youth : risk, governmentality and the Finn Report

The category of the `at-risk youth' currently underpins a good deal of youth policy, and in particular, education policy. Primarily, the category is centred around a range of programmes associated with the need for state intervention, intervention which largely occurs `at a distance' within domains such as the school and the family. While it is argued that in some ways, the `at-risk youth' simply replaces older characterisations used in the policing of the young, it will also be argued that the preventative policies associated with `risk' are constituted in terms of factors rather than individuals; that prevention is no longer primarily based upon personal expertise, but rather upon the gathering and collation of statistical knowledge which identifies `risks' within given populations; and that `risk' permits a greater number of young people to be brought into the field of regulatory strategies. Importantly, the category of the `at-risk youth' underpins crucial sections of policy documents such as the Finn Report (into credentialling/ education and vocational competency). In this case, youth is deemed to be `at-risk' of not making the transition to adulthood successfully. It will be argued that not only is the Finn Report significant in the administrative and cultural shaping of the category of `youth', but also by employing the notion of `risk', the Report puts in place yet another element of an effective network of governmental intelligibility covering the young. Finally, it will be argued that young women, as a specific example of a `risk' group (vis-a-vis obtaining certain types of employment), require particular forms of intervention, primarily through changing the vocational aspirations of their parents.

Shaping the at-risk youth

The category of the `at-risk' youth currently underpins a good deal of youth policy. Primarily, it centres around a range of programs associated with the need for state intervention. The `at-risk' youth tenuously appears at the intersection of a variety of knowledges/problematisations, such as vocational guidance, youth welfare, family management, and so on. Whilst it is argued that in some ways, the `at-risk' youth simply replaces older characterisations used in the policing of the young, it will also be argued that the preventative policies associated with `risk' are constituted in terms of factors rather than individuals, that prevention is no longer primarily based upon personal expertise, but rather upon the gathering and collation of statistical knowledge which identifies `risks' within given populations, and that `risk' legitimates unlimited governmental intervention. Importantly, the category of the `at-risk' youth underpins crucial sections of policy documents such as the Finn Report (into credentialling/education and vocational competency). In this case, youth is deemed to be `at-risk' of not making the transition to adulthood successfully. It will be argued that not only is the Finn Report significant in the administrative and cultural shaping of the category of `youth', but also by employing the notion of `risk', the Report puts in place yet another element of an effective network of governmental intelligibility covering the young. Finally, it will be argued that young women, as a specific an example of a `risk' group (vis-a-vis obtaining certain types of employment), require particular forms of intervention, primarily through changing the vocational aspirations of their parents.

Body composition and its relationship to metabolic risk factors in Asian children

Obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. The body mass index (BMI) is the most common index used to define obesity. The universal application of the same BMI classification across different ethnic groups is being challenged due to the inability of the index to differentiate fat mass (FM) and fat�]free mass (FFM) and the recognized ethnic differences in body composition. A better understanding of the body composition of Asian children from different backgrounds would help to better understand the obesity�]related health risks of people in this region. Moreover, the limitations of the BMI underscore the necessity to use where possible, more accurate measures of body fat assessment in research and clinical settings in addition to BMI, particularly in relation to the monitoring of prevention and treatment efforts. The aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in the relationship between BMI and percent body fat (%BF) in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. A total of 1039 children aged 8�]10 y were recruited using a non�]random purposive sampling approach aiming to encompass a wide BMI range from the five countries. Percent body fat (%BF) was determined using the deuterium dilution technique to quantify total body water (TBW) and subsequently derive proportions of FM and FFM. The study highlighted the sex and ethnic differences between BMI and %BF in Asian children from different countries. Girls had approximately 4.0% higher %BF compared with boys at a given BMI. Filipino boys tended to have a lower %BF than their Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai counterparts at the same age and BMI level (corrected mean %BF was 25.7�}0.8%, 27.4�}0.4%, 27.1�}0.6%, 27.7�}0.5%, 28.1�}0.5% for Filipino, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai boys, respectively), although they differed significantly from Thai and Malay boys. Thai girls had approximately 2.0% higher %BF values than Chinese, Lebanese, Filipino and Malay counterparts (however no significant difference was seen among the four ethnic groups) at a given BMI (corrected mean %BF was 31.1�}0.5%, 28.6�}0.4%, 29.2�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.5% for Thai, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Filipino girls, respectively). However, the ethnic difference in BMI�]%BF relationship varied by BMI. Compared with Caucasians, Asian children had a BMI 3�]6 units lower for a given %BF. More than one third of obese Asian children in the study were not identified using the WHO classification and more than half were not identified using the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) classification. However, use of the Chinese classification increased the sensitivity by 19.7%, 18.1%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 11.3% for Chinese, Lebanese, Malay, Filipino and Thai girls, respectively. A further aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in body fat distribution in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Thailand. The skin fold thicknesses, height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and total adiposity (as determined by deuterium dilution technique) of 922 children from the four countries was assessed. Chinese boys and girls had a similar trunk�]to�]extremity skin fold thickness ratio to Thai counterparts and both groups had higher ratios than the Malays and Lebanese at a given total FM. At a given BMI, both Chinese and Thai boys and girls had a higher WC than Malays and Lebanese (corrected mean WC was 68.1�}0.2 cm, 67.8�}0.3 cm, 65.8�}0.4 cm, 64.1�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay boys, respectively; 64.2�}0.2 cm, 65.0�}0.3 cm, 62.9�}0.4 cm, 60.6�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay girls, respectively). Chinese boys and girls had lower trunk fat adjusted subscapular/suprailiac skinfold ratio compared with Lebanese and Malay counterparts. The second study aimed to develop and cross�]validate bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) prediction equations of TBW and FFM for Asian pre�]pubertal children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Data on height, weight, age, gender, resistance and reactance measured by BIA were collected from 948 Asian children (492 boys and 456 girls) aged 8�]10 y from the five countries. The deuterium dilution technique was used as the criterion method for the estimation of TBW and FFM. The BIA equations were developed from the validation group (630 children randomly selected from the total sample) using stepwise multiple regression analysis and cross�]validated in a separate group (318 children) using the Bland�]Altman approach. Age, gender and ethnicity influenced the relationship between the resistance index (RI = height2/resistance), TBW and FFM. The BIA prediction equation for the estimation of TBW was: TBW (kg) = 0.231�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.066�~Height (cm) + 0.188�~Weight (kg) + 0.128�~Age (yr) + 0.500�~Sex (male=1, female=0) . 0.316�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 4.574, and for the estimation of FFM: FFM (kg) = 0.299�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.086�~Height (cm) + 0.245�~Weight (kg) + 0.260�~Age (yr) + 0.901�~Sex (male=1, female=0) �] 0.415�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 6.952. The R2 was 88.0% (root mean square error, RSME = 1.3 kg), 88.3% (RSME = 1.7 kg) for TBW and FFM equation, respectively. No significant difference between measured and predicted TBW and between measured and predicted FFM for the whole cross�]validation sample was found (bias = �]0.1�}1.4 kg, pure error = 1.4�}2.0 kg for TBW and bias = �]0.2�}1.9 kg, pure error = 1.8�}2.6 kg for FFM). However, the prediction equation for estimation of TBW/FFM tended to overestimate TBW/FFM at lower levels while underestimate at higher levels of TBW/FFM. Accuracy of the general equation for TBW and FFM compared favorably with both BMI�]specific and ethnic�]specific equations. There were significant differences between predicted TBW and FFM from external BIA equations derived from Caucasian populations and measured values in Asian children. There were three specific aims of the third study. The first was to explore the relationship between obesity and metabolic syndrome and abnormalities in Chinese children. A total of 608 boys and 800 girls aged 6�]12 y were recruited from four cities in China. Three definitions of pediatric metabolic syndrome and abnormalities were used, including the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition for adults modified by Cook et al. and de Ferranti et al. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome varied with different definitions, was highest using the de Ferranti definition (5.4%, 24.6% and 42.0%, respectively for normal�]weight, overweight and obese children), followed by the Cook definition (1.5%, 8.1%, and 25.1%, respectively), and the IDF definition (0.5%, 1.8% and 8.3%, respectively). Overweight and obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome compared to normal�]weight children (odds ratio varied with different definitions from 3.958 to 6.866 for overweight children, and 12.640�]26.007 for obese children). Overweight and obesity also increased the risk of developing metabolic abnormalities. Central obesity and high triglycerides (TG) were the most common while hyperglycemia was the least frequent in Chinese children regardless of different definitions. The second purpose was to determine the best obesity index for the prediction of cardiovascular (CV) risk factor clustering across a 2�]y follow�]up among BMI, %BF, WC and waist�]to�]height ratio (WHtR) in Chinese children. Height, weight, WC, %BF as determined by BIA, blood pressure, TG, high�]density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL�]C), and fasting glucose were collected at baseline and 2 years later in 292 boys and 277 girls aged 8�]10 y. The results showed the percentage of children who remained overweight/obese defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR and %BF was 89.7%, 93.5%, 84.5%, and 80.4%, respectively after 2 years. Obesity indices at baseline significantly correlated with TG, HDL�]C, and blood pressure at both baseline and 2 years later with a similar strength of correlations. BMI at baseline explained the greatest variance of later blood pressure. WC at baseline explained the greatest variance of later HDL�]C and glucose, while WHtR at baseline was the main predictor of later TG. Receiver�]operating characteristic (ROC) analysis explored the ability of the four indices to identify the later presence of CV risk. The overweight/obese children defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR or %BF were more likely to develop CV risk 2 years later with relative risk (RR) scores of 3.670, 3.762, 2.767, and 2.804, respectively. The final purpose of the third study was to develop age�] and gender�]specific percentiles of WC and WHtR and cut�]off points of WC and WHtR for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children. Smoothed percentile curves of WC and WHtR were produced in 2830 boys and 2699 girls aged 6�]12 y randomly selected from southern and northern China using the LMS method. The optimal age�] and gender�]specific thresholds of WC and WHtR for the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors clustering were derived in a sub�]sample (n=1845) by ROC analysis. Age�] and gender�]specific WC and WHtR percentiles were constructed. The WC thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67.2% to 83.3%. The WHtR thresholds were at the 91st and 94th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 78.6% to 88.9%. The cut�]offs of both WC and WHtR were age�] and gender�]dependent. In conclusion, the current thesis quantifies the ethnic differences in the BMI�]%BF relationship and body fat distribution between Asian children from different origins and confirms the necessity to consider ethnic differences in body composition when developing BMI and other obesity index criteria for obesity in Asian children. Moreover, ethnicity is also important in BIA prediction equations. In addition, WC and WHtR percentiles and thresholds for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children differ from other populations. Although there was no advantage of WC or WHtR over BMI or %BF in the prediction of CV risk, obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome and abnormalities than normal�]weight children regardless of the obesity index used.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

A 250 μg/week dose of vitamin D was as effective as a 50 μg/d dose in healthy adults, but a regimen of four weekly followed by monthly doses of 1250 μg raised the risk of hypercalciuria

The risk of vitamin D insufficiency is increased in persons having limited sunlight exposure and dietary vitamin D. Supplementation compliance might be improved with larger doses taken less often, but this may increase the potential for side effects. The objective of the present study was to determine whether a weekly or weekly/monthly regimen of vitamin D supplementation is as effective as daily supplementation without increasing the risk of side effects. Participants were forty-eight healthy adults who were randomly assigned for 3 months to placebo or one of three supplementation regimens: 50 μg/d (2000 IU/d, analysed dose 70 μg/d), 250 μg/week (10 000 IU/week, analysed dose 331 μg/week) or 1250 μg/week (50 000 IU/week, analysed dose 1544 μg/week) for 4 weeks and then 1250 μg/month for 2 months. Daily and weekly doses were equally effective at increasing serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, which was significantly greater than baseline in all the supplemented groups after 30 d of treatment. Subjects in the 1250 μg treatment group, who had a BMI >26 kg/m2, had a steady increase in urinary Ca in the first 3 weeks of supplementation, and, overall, the relative risk of hypercalciuria was higher in the 1250 μg group than in the placebo group (P= 0·01). Although vitamin D supplementation remains a controversial issue, these data document that supplementing with ≤ 250 μg/week ( ≤ 10 000 IU/week) can improve or maintain vitamin D status in healthy populations without the risk of hypercalciuria, but 24 h urinary Ca excretion should be evaluated in healthy persons receiving vitamin D3 supplementation in weekly single doses of 1250 μg (50 000 IU).

An envirogenomic signature is associated with risk of IBD-related surgery in a population-based Crohn’s Disease cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Crohn's disease (CD) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) caused by a combination of genetic, clinical, and environmental factors. Identification of CD patients at high risk of requiring surgery may assist clinicians to decide on a top-down or step-up treatment approach. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control analysis of a population-based cohort of 503 CD patients. A regression-based data reduction approach was used to systematically analyse 63 genomic, clinical and environmental factors for association with IBD-related surgery as the primary outcome variable. RESULTS: A multi-factor model was identified that yielded the highest predictive accuracy for need for surgery. The factors included in the model were the NOD2 genotype (OR = 1.607, P = 2.3 × 10(-5)), having ever had perianal disease (OR = 2.847, P = 4 × 10(-6)), being post-diagnosis smokers (OR = 6.312, P = 7.4 × 10(-3)), being an ex-smoker at diagnosis (OR = 2.405, P = 1.1 × 10(-3)) and age (OR = 1.012, P = 4.4 × 10(-3)). Diagnostic testing for this multi-factor model produced an area under the curve of 0.681 (P = 1 × 10(-4)) and an odds ratio of 3.169, (95 % CI P = 1 × 10(-4)) which was higher than any factor considered independently. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study require validation in other populations but represent a step forward in the development of more accurate prognostic tests for clinicians to prescribe the most optimal treatment approach for complicated CD patients.

Investigation of the low-density lipoprotein receptor gene and cholesterol as a risk factor for migraine

The Low-Density Lipoprotein Receptor (LDLR) gene is a cell surface receptor that plays an important role in cholesterol homeostasis. We investigated the (TA)n polymorphism in exon 18 of the LDLR gene on chromosome 19p13.2 performing an association analysis in 244 typical migraine-affected patients, 151 suffering from migraine with aura (MA), 96 with migraine without aura (MO) and 244 unaffected controls. The populations consisted of Caucasians only, and controls were age- and sex-matched. The results showed no significant difference between groups for allele frequency distributions of the (TA)n polymorphism even after separation of the migraine-affected individuals into subgroups of MA and MO affected patients. This is in contradiction to Mochi et al. who found a positive association of this variant with MO. Our study discusses possible differences between the two studies and extends this research by investigating circulating cholesterol levels in a migraine-affected population.