Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

The correlation of pore morphology, interconnectivity and physical properties of 3D ceramic scaffolds with bone ingrowth

In the design of tissue engineering scaffolds, design parameters including pore size, shape and interconnectivity, mechanical properties and transport properties should be optimized to maximize successful inducement of bone ingrowth. In this paper we describe a 3D micro-CT and pore partitioning study to derive pore scale parameters including pore radius distribution, accessible radius, throat radius, and connectivity over the pore space of the tissue engineered constructs. These pore scale descriptors are correlated to bone ingrowth into the scaffolds. Quantitative and visual comparisons show a strong correlation between the local accessible pore radius and bone ingrowth; for well connected samples a cutoff accessible pore radius of approximately 100 microM is observed for ingrowth. The elastic properties of different types of scaffolds are simulated and can be described by standard cellular solids theory: (E/E(0))=(rho/rho(s))(n). Hydraulic conductance and diffusive properties are calculated; results are consistent with the concept of a threshold conductance for bone ingrowth. Simple simulations of local flow velocity and local shear stress show no correlation to in vivo bone ingrowth patterns. These results demonstrate a potential for 3D imaging and analysis to define relevant pore scale morphological and physical properties within scaffolds and to provide evidence for correlations between pore scale descriptors, physical properties and bone ingrowth.

On the affinity of Chuaria–Tawuia complex : a multidisciplinary study

In this study, biometric and structural engineering tool have been used to examine a possible relationship within Chuaria–Tawuia complex and micro-FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) analyses to understand the biological affinity of Chuaria circularis Walcott, collected from the Mesoproterozoic Suket Shales of the Vindhyan Supergroup and the Neoproterozoic Halkal Shales of the Bhima Group of peninsular India. Biometric analyses of well preserved carbonized specimens show wide variation in morphology and uni-modal distribution. We believe and demonstrate to a reasonable extent that C. circularis most likely was a part of Tawuia-like cylindrical body of algal origin. Specimens with notch/cleft and overlapping preservation, mostly recorded in the size range of 3–5 mm, are of special interest. Five different models proposed earlier on the life cycle of C. circularis are discussed. A new model, termed as ‘Hybrid model’ based on present multidisciplinary study assessing cylindrical and spherical shapes suggesting variable cell wall strength and algal affinity is proposed. This model discusses and demonstrates varied geometrical morphologies assumed by Chuaria and Tawuia, and also shows the inter-relationship of Chuaria–Tawuia complex. Structural engineering tool (thin walled pressure vessel theory) was applied to investigate the implications of possible geometrical shapes (sphere and cylinder), membrane (cell wall) stresses and ambient pressure environment on morphologically similar C. circularis and Tawuia. The results suggest that membrane stresses developed on the structures similar to Chuaria–Tawuia complex were directly proportional to radius and inversely proportional to the thickness in both cases. In case of hollow cylindrical structure, the membrane stresses in circumferential direction (hoop stress) are twice of the longitudinal direction indicating that rupture or fragmentation in the body of Tawuia would have occurred due to hoop stress. It appears that notches and discontinuities seen in some of the specimens of Chuaria may be related to rupture suggesting their possible location in 3D Chuaria. The micro-FTIR spectra of C. circularis are characterized by both aliphatic and aromatic absorption bands. The aliphaticity is indicated by prominent alkyl group bands between 2800–3000 and 1300–1500 cm−1. The prominent absorption signals at 700–900 cm−1 (peaking at 875 and 860 cm−1) are due to aromatic CH out of plane deformation. A narrow, strong band is centred at 1540 cm−1 which could be COOH band. The presence of strong aliphatic bands in FTIR spectra suggests that the biogeopolymer of C. circularis is of aliphatic nature. The wall chemistry indicates the presence of ‘algaenan’—a biopolymer of algae.

Effect of poly(acrylic acid) molecular mass and end-group functionality on calcium oxalate crystal morphology and growth

A number of series of poly(acrylic acids) (PAA) of differing end-groups and molecular mass were used to study the inhibition of calcium oxalate crystallization. The effects of the end-group on crystal speciation and morphology were significant and dramatic, with hexyl-isobutyrate end groups giving preferential formation of calcium oxalate dihydrate (COD) rather than the more stable calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), while both more hydrophobic end-groups and less-hydrophobic end groups led predominantly to formation of the least thermodynamically stable form of calcium oxalate, calcium oxalate trihydrate. Conversely, molecular mass had little impact on calcium oxalate speciation or crystal morphology. It is probable that the observed effects are related to the rate of desorption of the PAA moiety from the crystal (lite) surfaces and that the results point to a major role for end-group as well as molecular mass in controlling desorption rate.

Design and implementation of sensor networks for the observation and research of harmful algal blooms in southern California coastal waters

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) have become an important environmental concern along the western coast of the United States. Toxic and noxious blooms adversely impact the economies of coastal communities in the region, pose risks to human health, and cause mortality events that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of fish, marine mammals and seabirds. One goal of field-based research efforts on this topic is the development of predictive models of HABs that would enable rapid response, mitigation and ultimately prevention of these events. In turn, these objectives are predicated on understanding the environmental conditions that stimulate these transient phenomena. An embedded sensor network (Fig. 1), under development in the San Pedro Shelf region off the Southern California coast, is providing tools for acquiring chemical, physical and biological data at high temporal and spatial resolution to help document the emergence and persistence of HAB events, supporting the design and testing of predictive models, and providing contextual information for experimental studies designed to reveal the environmental conditions promoting HABs. The sensor platforms contained within this network include pier-based sensor arrays, ocean moorings, HF radar stations, along with mobile sensor nodes in the form of surface and subsurface autonomous vehicles. FreewaveTM radio modems facilitate network communication and form a minimally-intrusive, wireless communication infrastructure throughout the Southern California coastal region, allowing rapid and cost-effective data transfer. An emerging focus of this project is the incorporation of a predictive ocean model that assimilates near-real time, in situ data from deployed Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). The model then assimilates the data to increase the skill of both nowcasts and forecasts, thus providing insight into bloom initiation as well as the movement of blooms or other oceanic features of interest (e.g., thermoclines, fronts, river discharge, etc.). From these predictions, deployed mobile sensors can be tasked to track a designated feature. This focus has led to the creation of a technology chain in which algorithms are being implemented for the innovative trajectory design for AUVs. Such intelligent mission planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to precise depths and locations that are the sites of active blooms, or physical/chemical features that might be sources of bloom initiation or persistence. The embedded network yields high-resolution, temporal and spatial measurements of pertinent environmental parameters and resulting biology (see Fig. 1). Supplementing this with ocean current information and remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, we obtain a comprehensive foundation for developing a fundamental understanding of HAB events. This then directs labor- intensive and costly sampling efforts and analyses. Additionally, we provide coastal municipalities, managers and state agencies with detailed information to aid their efforts in providing responsible environmental stewardship of their coastal waters.

The patella morphology in trochlear dysplasia : a comparative MRI study

BACKGROUND: Trochlear dysplasia is suspected to have a genetic basis and causes recurrent patellar instability due to insufficient anatomical geometry. Numerous studies about trochlear morphology and the optimal surgical treatment have been carried out, but no attention has been paid to the corresponding patellar morphology.----- ----- PURPOSE: The aim of this study was the evaluation of the patellar morphology in normal and trochlear dysplastic knees. ----- ----- STUDY DESIGN: Biometric analysis. ----- ----- METHODS: Twenty two patellae with underlying trochlear dysplasia (study group--SG) were compared with 22 matched knees with normal trochlear shape (control group--CG) on transverse and sagittal MRI slices. We compared transverse diameter, cartilaginous thickness, Wiberg-index and -angle, length and radius of lateral and medial facet, patellar shape and angle, retropatellar length, and type of trochlear dysplasia. For statistical analysis we used the Wilcoxon signed ranks test. ----- ----- RESULTS: The transverse and sagittal diameter, mean length of medial patellar facet, and mean cartilaginous and subchondral Wiberg-index showed statistical differences between the two groups. ----- ----- CONCLUSIONS: Although the insufficient trochlear depth and decreased lateral trochlear slope are responsible for patellofemoral instability, the patella shows morphological changes in trochlear dysplastic knees. Its overall size and the medial facet are smaller. Although the femoral sulcus angle is larger, the Wiberg-angle and -index are equal to the control group. This may indicate that the patellar morphology may not be a result of missing medial patellofemoral pressure in trochlear dysplastic knees, but a decreased medial patellofemoral traction. This seems to be caused by hypotrophic medial patellofemoral restraints in combination with an increased lateral patellar tilt, both resulting in a decreased tension onto the medial patella facet. Whether there is a genetic component to the patellar morphology remains open.

Urban maze : A typological investigation in porous morphology and dynamic pedestrian networks

Mixed use typologies and pedestrian networks are two strategies commonly applied in design of the contemporary city. These approaches, aimed towards the creation of a more sustainalble urban environment, have their roots in the traditional, pre-industrial towns; they characterize urban form, articulating the tension between privaate and public realms through a series of typological variations as well as stimulating commercial activity in the city centre. Arcades, loggias and verandas are just some of the elements which can mediate this tension. Historically they have defined physical and social spaces with particular character; in the contemporary city these features are applied to deform the urban form and create a porous, dynamic morphology. This paper, comparing case studies from Italy, Japan and Australia, investigates how the design of the transition zone can define hybrid pedestrian networks, where a clear distinction between the public and private realms is no longer applicable. Pedestrians use the city in a dynamic way, combining trajectories on the public street with ones on the fringe or inside of the private built environment. In some cases, cities offer different pedestrian network possibilities at different times, as the commercial precints are subject to variations in accessibility across various timeframes. These walkable systems have an impact on the urban form and identity of places, redefining typologies and requiring an in depth analysis through plan, section and elevation diagrams.

The morphology of service bundling settings

The purpose of this paper is to advance our understanding of what contextual factors influence the service bundling process in an organizational setting. Although previous literature contains insights into the mechanisms underlying bundling and the artefacts for performing the bundling task itself, the body of knowledge seems to lack a comprehensive framework for analysing the actual scenario in which the bundling process is performed. This is required as the scenario will influence the bundling method and the IT support. We address this need by designing a morphological box for analysing bundling scenarios in different organizational settings. The factors featured in the box are systematised into a set of four categories of bundling layers which we identify from reviewing literature. The two core layers in the framework are the service bundling on a type level and on an instance level (i.e. configuration). To demonstrate the applicability and utility of the proposed morphological box, we apply it to assess the underlying differences and commonalities of two different bundling scenarios from the B2B and G2C sectors which stress the differences between bundling on a type and instance level. In addition, we identify several prospects for future research that can benefit from the proposed morphological box.

Molecules, morphology, and ecology indicate a recent, amphibious ancestry for echidnas

The semiaquatic platypus and terrestrial echidnas (spiny anteaters) are the only living egg-laying mammals (monotremes). The fossil record has provided few clues as to their origins and the evolution of their ecological specializations; however, recent reassignment of the Early Cretaceous Teinolophos and Steropodon to the platypus lineage implies that platypuses and echidnas diverged >112.5 million years ago, reinforcing the notion of monotremes as living fossils. This placement is based primarily on characters related to a single feature, the enlarged mandibular canal, which supplies blood vessels and dense electrosensory receptors to the platypus bill. Our reevaluation of the morphological data instead groups platypus and echidnas to the exclusion of Teinolophos and Steropodon and suggests that an enlarged mandibular canal is ancestral for monotremes (partly reversed in echidnas, in association with general mandibular reduction). A multigene evaluation of the echidna–platypus divergence using both a relaxed molecular clock and direct fossil calibrations reveals a recent split of 19–48 million years ago. Platypus-like monotremes (Monotrematum) predate this divergence, indicating that echidnas had aquatically foraging ancestors that reinvaded terrestrial ecosystems. This ecological shift and the associated radiation of echidnas represent a recent expansion of niche space despite potential competition from marsupials. Monotremes might have survived the invasion of marsupials into Australasia by exploiting ecological niches in which marsupials are restricted by their reproductive mode. Morphology, ecology, and molecular biology together indicate that Teinolophos and Steropodon are basal monotremes rather than platypus relatives, and that living monotremes are a relatively recent radiation.

Sections of the city : architecturalising the tools of urban morphology

The study of urban morphology has become an expanding field of research within the architectural discipline, providing theories to be used as tools in the understanding and design of urban landscapes from the past, the present and into the future. Drawing upon contemporary architectural design theory, this investigation reveals what a sectional analysis of an urban landscape can add to the existing research methods within this field. This paper conducts an enquiry into the use of the section as a tool for urban morphological analysis. Following the methodology of the British school of urban morphology, sections through the urban fabric of the case study city of Brisbane are compared. The results are categorised to depict changes in scale, components and utilisation throughout various timeframes. The key findings illustrate how the section, when read in conjunction with the plan can be used to interpret changes to urban form and the relationship that this has to the quality of the urban environment in the contemporary city.