Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Romano-British wall-painting fragments: a spectroscopic analysis

Raman spectroscopic analyses of fragmented wall-painting specimens from a Romano-British villa dating from ca. 200 AD are reported. The predominant pigment is red haematite, to which carbon, chalk and sand have been added to produce colour variations, applied to a typical Roman limewash putty composition. Other pigment colours are identified as white chalk, yellow (goethite), grey (soot/chalk mixture) and violet. The latter pigment is ascribed to caput mortuum, a rare form of haematite, to which kaolinite (possibly from Cornwall) has been added, presumably in an effort to increase the adhesive properties of the pigment to the substratum. This is the first time that kaolinite has been reported in this context and could indicate the successful application of an ancient technology discovered by the Romano-British artists. Supporting evidence for the Raman data is provided by X-ray diffraction and SEM-EDAX analyses of the purple pigment.

Teacher-child relationship quality for young children with parent reported language concerns

Previous research has demonstrated the importance of the qualities of the teacher-child relationship on children’s development. Close teacher-child relationships are especially important for children at risk. Positive relationships have been shown to have beneficial effects on children’s social and academic development (Birch & Ladd, 1997; Pianta & Stuhlman, 2004). Children with language difficulties are likely to face increased risks with regard to long term social and academic outcomes. The purpose of the current research was to gain greater understanding of the qualities of teacher-child relationships for young children with parent reported language concerns. The research analyses completed for this thesis involved the use of data from the public-access database of Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). LSAC is a longitudinal study involving a nationally representative sample of 10,000 Australian children. Data are being collected biennially from 2004 (Wave 1 data collection) until 2010 (Wave 4 data collection). LSAC has a cross-sequential research design involving two cohorts, an infant cohort (0-1 year at age of recruitment) and a kindergarten cohort (4-5 years at age of recruitment). Two studies are reported in this thesis using data for the LSAC Kindergarten Cohort which had 4983 child participants at recruitment. Study 1 used Wave 1 data to identify the differences between teacher-child relationship qualities for children with parent reported language concerns and their peers. Children identified by parents for whom concerns were held about their receptive and expressive language, as measured by items from the Parents’ Evaluation of Developmental Status (PEDS) (Glascoe, 2000) were the target (at risk) group in the study (n = 210). A matched case control group of peers (n = 210), matched on the child characteristics of sex, age, cultural and linguistic differences (CALD), and socio-economic positioning (SEP), were the comparison group for this analysis. Teacher-child relationship quality was measured by teacher reports on the Closeness and Conflict scales from the short version of the Student-Teacher Relationship Scale (STRS) (Pianta, 2001). There were statistically significant differences in the levels of closeness and conflict between the two groups. The target group had relationships with their teachers that had lower levels of closeness and higher levels of conflict than the control group. Study 2 reports analyses that examined the stability of the qualities of the teacher-child relationships at Wave 1 (4-5 years) and the qualities of the teacher-child relationships at Wave 2 (6-7 years). This time frame crosses the period of the children’s transition to school. The study examined whether early patterns in the qualities of the teacher-child relationship for children with parent reported language concerns at Wave 1 predicted the qualities of the teacher-child relationship outcomes in the early years of formal school. The sample for this study consisted of the group of children identified with PEDS language concerns at Wave 1 who also had teacher report data at Wave 2 (n = 145). Teacher-child relationship quality at Wave 1 and Wave 2 was again measured by the STRS scales of Closeness and Conflict. Results from multiple regression models indicated that teacher-child relationship quality at Wave 1 significantly contributed to the prediction of the quality of the teacher-child relationship at Wave 2, beyond other predictor variables included in the regression models. Specifically, Wave 1 STRS Closeness scores were the most significant predictor for STRS Closeness scores at Wave 2, while Wave 1 STRS Conflict scores were the only significant predictor for Wave 2 STRS Conflict outcomes. These results indicate that the qualities of the teacher-child relationship experienced prior to school by children with parent reported language concerns remained stable across transitions into formal schooling at which time the child had a different teacher. The results of these studies provide valuable insight into the nature of teacher-child relationship quality for young children with parent reported language concerns. These children experienced teacher-child relationships of a lower quality when compared with peers and, additionally, the qualities of these relationships prior to formal schooling were predictive of the qualities of the relationships in the early years of formal schooling. This raises concerns, given the increased risks of poorer social and academic outcomes already faced by children with language difficulties, that these early teacher-child relationships have an impact on future teacher-child relationships. Results of these studies are discussed with these considerations in mind and also discussed in terms of the implications for educational theory, policy and practice.

Demographic category membership and leadership in small groups : a social identity analysis

Developing the social identity theory of leadership (e.g., [Hogg, M. A. (2001). A social identity theory of leadership. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5, 184–200]), an experiment (N=257) tested the hypothesis that as group members identify more strongly with their group (salience) their evaluations of leadership effectiveness become more strongly influenced by the extent to which their demographic stereotype-based impressions of their leader match the norm of the group (prototypicality). Participants, with more or less traditional gender attitudes (orientation), were members, under high or low group salience conditions (salience), of non-interactive laboratory groups that had “instrumental” or “expressive” group norms (norm), and a male or female leader (leader gender). As predicted, these four variables interacted significantly to affect perceptions of leadership effectiveness. Reconfiguration of the eight conditions formed by orientation, norm and leader gender produced a single prototypicality variable. Irrespective of participant gender, prototypical leaders were considered more effective in high then low salience groups, and in high salience groups prototypical leaders were more effective than less prototypical leaders. Alternative explanations based on status characteristics and role incongruity theory do not account well for the findings. Implications of these results for the glass ceiling effect and for a wider social identity analysis of the impact of demographic group membership on leadership in small groups are discussed.

Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common

This paper analyzes the common factor structure of US, German, and Japanese Government bond returns. Unlike previous studies, we formally take into account the presence of country-specific factors when estimating common factors. We show that the classical approach of running a principal component analysis on a multi-country dataset of bond returns captures both local and common influences and therefore tends to pick too many factors. We conclude that US bond returns share only one common factor with German and Japanese bond returns. This single common factor is associated most notably with changes in the level of domestic term structures. We show that accounting for country-specific factors improves the performance of domestic and international hedging strategies.

Towards a culturally appropriate mental health system: Sudanese-Australians' experiences with trauma

Australia is fortunate to welcome approximately 13,000 humanitarian entrants per year, most of whom have experienced protracted violence, hardship and life in refugee camps. The majority of humanitarian migrants were raised in cultural contexts very different to that of Australia, contributing to the increasing diversity of this region. With this diversity comes a responsibility to ensure every Australian receives culturally appropriate mental healthcare. Those who are forced into migration have experienced trauma and the stress of acculturation often compounds this trauma. This study investigated the experience of trauma from the perspectives of Sudanese-Australians. Grounded theory methodology was employed to extract themes from interviews with 15 Sudanese-Australians aged between 19 and 49 years. Results demonstrated four overarching themes: support, religion, strength and new possibilities. The data within these themes are compared and contrasted with previous literature that has examined notions of trauma, distress and growth in western populations. Conclusions drawn from these results highlight the need to build inclusive practices that support diversity into existing trauma services in Australia.

Associations among smoking status, lifestyle and lipoprotein subclasses

BACKGROUND: The relationship between cigarette smoking and cardiovascular disease is well established, yet the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Although smokers have a more atherogenic lipid profile, this may be mediated by other lifestyle-related factors. Analysis of lipoprotein subclasses by the use of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) may improve characterisation of lipoprotein abnormalities. OBJECTIVE: We used NMR spectroscopy to investigate the relationships between smoking status, lifestyle-related risk factors, and lipoproteins in a contemporary cohort. METHODS: A total of 612 participants (360 women) aged 40–69 years at baseline (199021994) enrolled in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study had plasma lipoproteins measured with NMR. Data were analysed separately by sex. RESULTS: After adjusting for lifestyle-related risk factors, including alcohol and dietary intake, physical activity, and weight, mean total low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particle concentration was greater for female smokers than nonsmokers. Both medium- and small-LDL particle concentrations contributed to this difference. Total high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and large-HDL particle concentrations were lower for female smokers than nonsmokers. The proportion with low HDL particle number was greater for female smokers than nonsmokers. For men, there were few smoking-related differences in lipoprotein measures. CONCLUSION: Female smokers have a more atherogenic lipoprotein profile than nonsmokers. This difference is independent of other lifestyle-related risk factors. Lipoprotein profiles did not differ greatly between male smokers and nonsmokers.