On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Performance of new-generation portable water-filled road safety barriers under vehicular impact

Portable water-filled barriers (PWFB) are roadside structures used to enhance safety at roadside work-zones. Ideally, a PWFB system is expected to protect persons and objects behind it and redirect the errant vehicle. The performance criteria of a road safety barrier system are (i) redirection of the vehicle after impact and (ii) lateral deflection within allowable limits. Since its inception, the PWFB has received criticism due to its underperformance compared to the heavier portable concrete barrier. A new generation composite high energy absorbing road safety barrier was recently developed by the authors.

Are East Asian companies benefiting from western board practices?

Since the Asian crisis, East Asian nations have strived to introduce corporate governance codes, directing companies how to best improve their corporate governance practices. However, these codes have not been universally accepted by East Asian companies. This study examines the adoption of major board-related corporate governance recommendations by large nonfinancial companies in seven East Asian nations and investigates whether improvements in these board governance mechanisms have been associated with increased operating performance and market value. The results indicate that family-owned companies started with worse board governance and have been least likely to improve their board governance since the crisis. Overall, bigger, faster growing, non-family-owned companies with less concentrated ownership have been more likely to improve their board governance. Splitting of the positions of Chairman and CEO, creation of audit and nomination committees and improvements in overall board governance were found to have a positive relationship with subsequent operating performance and/or market value.

Deconstructing neurobiological coordination

Inherent indeterminacy of neurobiological systems has been revealed by research on coordination of multiarticular actions. We consider three important issues that these investigations raise for biomechanical measurement and performance modeling. These issues highlight the role of dynamic systems theory as a platform for integration of motor control and biomechanics in exercise and sports science.

Multi-body modelling of wagon trains for crashworthiness analysis

Three-dimensional wagon train models have been developed for the crashworthiness analysis using multi-body dynamics approach. The contributions of the train size (number of wagon) to the frontal crash forces can be identified through the simulations. The effects of crash energy management (CEM) design and crash speed on train crashworthiness are examined. The CEM design can significantly improve the train crashworthiness and the consequential vehicle stability performance - reducing derailment risks.

It’s about time : investing in transportation to keep Texas economically competitive : Appendices

APPENDIX A : PAVEMENT QUALITY (Zhanmin Zhang, Michael R. Murphy, Robert Harrison), 7 pages -- APPENDIX B : BRIDGE QUALITY (Jose Weissmann, Angela J. Weissmann), 6 pages -- APPENDIX C : URBAN TRAFFIC CONGESTION (Tim Lomax, David Schrank), 32 pages -- APPENDIX D: RURAL CORRIDORS (Tim Lomax, David Schrank), 6 pages -- APPENDIX E: ADDITIONAL REVENUE SOURCE OPTIONS FOR PAVEMENT AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE (Mike Murphy, Seokho Chi, Randy Machemehl, Khali Persad, Robert Harrison, Zhanmin Zhang), 81 pages -- APPENDIX F: FUNDING TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS (David Ellis, Brianne Glover, Nick Norboge, Wally Crittenden), 19 pages -- APPENDIX G: ESTIMATING VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS AND PAVEMENT DETERIORATION (by Robert Harrison), 4 pages

Dynamic simulation of a light-weight, low-drag, hybrid-electric sports coupe

The University of Queensland UltraCommuter concept is an ultra- light, low-drag, hybrid-electric sports coupe designed to minimize energy consumption and environmental impact while enhancing the performance, styling, features and convenience that motorists enjoy. This paper presents a detailed simulation study of the vehicle's performance and fuel economy using ADVISOR, including a detailed description of the component models and parameters assumed. Results from the study include predictions of a 0-100 kph acceleration time of ≺9s, and top speed of 170 kph, an electrical energy consumption of ≺67 Wh/km in ZEV mode and a petrol-equivalent fuel consumption of ≺2.5 L/100 km in charge-sustaining HEV mode. Overall, the results of the ADVISOR modelling confirm the UltraCommuter's potential to achieve high performance with high efficiency, and the authors look forward to a confirmation of these estimates following completion of the vehicle.

On evaluation of robust autonomy for uninhabited vehicles and systems

This paper discusses a method to quantify robust autonomy of Uninhabited Vehicles and Systems (UVS) in aerospace, marine, or land applications. Based on mission-vehicle specific performance criteria, we define an system utility function that can be evaluated using simulation scenarios for an envelope of environmental conditions. The results of these evaluations are used to compute a figure of merit or measure for operational efectiveness (MOE). The procedure is then augmented to consider faults and the performance of mechanisms to handle these faulty operational modes. This leads to a measure of robust autonomy (MRA). The objective of the proposed figures of merit is to assist in decision making about vehicle performance and reliability at both vehicle development stage (using simulation models) and at certification stage (using hardware-in-the-loop testing). Performance indices based on dynamic and geometric tasks associated with vehicle manoeuvring problems are proposed, and an example of a two- dimensional y scenario is provided to illustrate the use of the proposed figures of merit.

Experimental studies of wireless communication and GNSS kinematic positioning performance in high-mobility vehicle environments

In order to support intelligent transportation system (ITS) road safety applications such as collision avoidance, lane departure warnings and lane keeping, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) based vehicle positioning system has to provide lane-level (0.5 to 1 m) or even in-lane-level (0.1 to 0.3 m) accurate and reliable positioning information to vehicle users. However, current vehicle navigation systems equipped with a single frequency GPS receiver can only provide road-level accuracy at 5-10 meters. The positioning accuracy can be improved to sub-meter or higher with the augmented GNSS techniques such as Real Time Kinematic (RTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) which have been traditionally used in land surveying and or in slowly moving environment. In these techniques, GNSS corrections data generated from a local or regional or global network of GNSS ground stations are broadcast to the users via various communication data links, mostly 3G cellular networks and communication satellites. This research aimed to investigate the precise positioning system performances when operating in the high mobility environments. This involves evaluation of the performances of both RTK and PPP techniques using: i) the state-of-art dual frequency GPS receiver; and ii) low-cost single frequency GNSS receiver. Additionally, this research evaluates the effectiveness of several operational strategies in reducing the load on data communication networks due to correction data transmission, which may be problematic for the future wide-area ITS services deployment. These strategies include the use of different data transmission protocols, different correction data format standards, and correction data transmission at the less-frequent interval. A series of field experiments were designed and conducted for each research task. Firstly, the performances of RTK and PPP techniques were evaluated in both static and kinematic (highway with speed exceed 80km) experiments. RTK solutions achieved the RMS precision of 0.09 to 0.2 meter accuracy in static and 0.2 to 0.3 meter in kinematic tests, while PPP reported 0.5 to 1.5 meters in static and 1 to 1.8 meter in kinematic tests by using the RTKlib software. These RMS precision values could be further improved if the better RTK and PPP algorithms are adopted. The tests results also showed that RTK may be more suitable in the lane-level accuracy vehicle positioning. The professional grade (dual frequency) and mass-market grade (single frequency) GNSS receivers were tested for their performance using RTK in static and kinematic modes. The analysis has shown that mass-market grade receivers provide the good solution continuity, although the overall positioning accuracy is worse than the professional grade receivers. In an attempt to reduce the load on data communication network, we firstly evaluate the use of different correction data format standards, namely RTCM version 2.x and RTCM version 3.0 format. A 24 hours transmission test was conducted to compare the network throughput. The results have shown that 66% of network throughput reduction can be achieved by using the newer RTCM version 3.0, comparing to the older RTCM version 2.x format. Secondly, experiments were conducted to examine the use of two data transmission protocols, TCP and UDP, for correction data transmission through the Telstra 3G cellular network. The performance of each transmission method was analysed in terms of packet transmission latency, packet dropout, packet throughput, packet retransmission rate etc. The overall network throughput and latency of UDP data transmission are 76.5% and 83.6% of TCP data transmission, while the overall accuracy of positioning solutions remains in the same level. Additionally, due to the nature of UDP transmission, it is also found that 0.17% of UDP packets were lost during the kinematic tests, but this loss doesn't lead to significant reduction of the quality of positioning results. The experimental results from the static and the kinematic field tests have also shown that the mobile network communication may be blocked for a couple of seconds, but the positioning solutions can be kept at the required accuracy level by setting of the Age of Differential. Finally, we investigate the effects of using less-frequent correction data (transmitted at 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 60 seconds interval) on the precise positioning system. As the time interval increasing, the percentage of ambiguity fixed solutions gradually decreases, while the positioning error increases from 0.1 to 0.5 meter. The results showed the position accuracy could still be kept at the in-lane-level (0.1 to 0.3 m) when using up to 20 seconds interval correction data transmission.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Vehicle energy throughput analysis as a drivetrain motor design aid

There are many variables to consider in the design of an electric motor. However, meeting the performance requirements for an electric vehicle drive may cause a designer to loose focus on its typical operation and hence fail to optimise the motor in the region where it processes the most power. This paper investigates operating requirements of electric vehicle motor drives using the University concept vehicle as an example. The paper outlines a methodology for determining primary operating region of a vehicle drive. The methodology is applied to standard driving cycles that are commonly used in the design and testing of vehicles.

Brake system performance requirements of a lightweight electric/hybrid rear wheel drive vehicle

Investigates the braking performance requirements of the UltraCommuter, a lightweight series hybrid electric vehicle currently under development at the University of Queensland. With a predicted vehicle mass of 600 kg and two in-wheel motors each capable of 500 Nm of peak torque, decelerations up to 0.46 g are theoretically possible using purely regenerative braking. With 99% of braking demands less than 0.35 g, essentially all braking can be regenerative. The wheel motors have sufficient peak torque capability to lock the rear wheels in combination with front axle braking, eliminating the need for friction braking at the rear. Emergency braking levels approaching 1 g are achieved by supplementation with front disk brakes. This paper presents equations describing the peak front and rear axle braking forces which occur under straight line braking, including gradients. Conventionally, to guarantee stability, mechanical front/rear proportioning of braking effort ensures that the front axle locks first. In this application, all braking is initially regenerative at the rear, and an adaptive ''by-wire'' proportioning system presented ensures this stability requirement is still satisfied. Front wheel drive and all wheel drive systems are also discussed. Finally, peak and continuous performance measures, not commonly provided for friction brakes, are derived for the UltraCommuter's motor capability and range of operation.