Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Contemplating Whitehead's freedom and discipline

This paper extends the previous application of Alfred Whitehead's educational ideas to the domain of enterprise education. In doing so, a unique approach to enterprise education is illustrated that links students to their reality whilst also connecting the curriculum to contemporary entrepreneurship theory. The paper reports upon past cycles of reflective practice related to the developing hic et nunc teaching and learning framework. Two specific findings of note have emerged. First, that student' learning outcomes are enhanced through the oscillating influence of freedom and discipline. However, in the absence of either factor, sub-optimal outcomes are seen to occur. That is, an imbalance between freedom and discipline has resulted in sub-optimal outcomes from either a lack of student interest or an inability to adequately apply acquired knowledge. Where gains have been made, the most obvious process has been through consultation with students. Second, that the students also play an important role in shaping the nature of the learning environments within which they interact. Both findings are of significant importance to all academics charged with the responsibility of developing enterprise education curriculum. The main implication of the paper is that in the absence of sound pedagogical practises, it is possible that enterprise programs may develop a tendency to reinforce past practises. The processes of constructive alignment and criterion-based assessment are argued to offer avenues through which students can influence the educational process. They also provide the educator with a reflective pathway through which continual improvements are constantly possible. This paper provides other academics with a window through which to view the ongoing development of a process that has been recognised nationally for teaching excellence and influenced many fine young entrepreneurs. The paper also draws attention to a set of core educational philosophies that have transferable value to any academic setting. It is noted that the task of developing a learner-centred curriculum for enterprise education has been an entrepreneurial endeavour in itself. Many mistakes have been made and many memorable achievements have been celebrated.