Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Limited utility of exercise stress testing in the evaluation of suspected acute coronary syndrome in patients aged less than 40 years with intermediate risk features

Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome

The new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule using troponin as the only biomarker: An external validation study

Objectives To externally evaluate the accuracy of the new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule and to assess the diagnostic accuracy using either sensitive or highly sensitive troponin assays. Methods Prospectively collected data from 2 emergency departments (EDs) in Australia and New Zealand were analysed. Based on the new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule, low-risk patients were identified using electrocardiogram results, cardiac history, nitrate use, age, pain characteristics and troponin results at 2 hours after presentation. The primary outcome was 30-day diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including acute myocardial infarction, and unstable angina. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated to assess the accuracy of the new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule using either sensitive or highly sensitive troponin assay results. Results Of the 1635 patients, 20.4% had an ACS diagnosis at 30 days. Using the highly sensitive troponin assay, 212 (13.0%) patients were eligible for early discharge with 3 patients (1.4%) diagnosed with ACS. Sensitivity was 99.1% (95% CI 97.4-99.7), specificity was 16.1 (95% CI 14.2-18.2), positive predictive values was 23.3 (95% CI 21.1-25.5) and negative predictive values was 98.6 (95% CI 95.9-99.5). The diagnostic accuracy of the rule was similar using the sensitive troponin assay. Conclusions The new Vancouver Chest Pain Rule should be used for the identification of low risk patients presenting to EDs with symptoms of possible ACS, and will reduce the proportion of patients requiring lengthy assessment; however we recommend further outpatient investigation for coronary artery disease in patients identified as low risk.

Sitagliptin and other ‘gliptins’ - why prescribe them?

Introduction In 2008, the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) required all new glucose-lowering therapies to show cardiovascular safety, and this applies to the dipeptidyl peptidase (DPP)-4 inhibitors (‘gliptins’). At present, there is contradictory evidence on whether the gliptins increase hospitalizations for heart failure. Areas covered This is an evaluation of the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS) in high risk cardiovascular subjects with type 2 diabetes [1]. TECOS demonstrated non-inferiority for sitagliptin over placebo for the primary outcome, which was cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina. There was no difference in the rate of hospitalization for heart failure between sitagliptin and placebo. Expert Opinion Despite the results of TECOS, debate over the effects of sitagliptin on the rates of hospitalizations for heart failure continues with some recent studies suggesting increased rates. Recently, empagliflozin (an inhibitor of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2) has been shown to reduce cardiovascular outcomes in subjects with type 2 diabetes, including the rates of hospitalization for heart failure. In our opinion, these positive findings with empagliflozin suggest that it should be prescribed in preference to the gliptins, including sitagliptin, unless any positive cardiovascular outcomes are reported for the gliptins.

Formation of thermodynamically unstable calcium oxalate dihydrate in sugar mill evaporators

Calcium oxalate (CaOX) is the most intractable scale component to remove in sugar mill evaporators by either mechanical or chemical means. The operating conditions of sugar mill evaporators should preferentially favour the formation of the thermodynamically stable calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), yet analysis of scale deposit from different sugar factories have shown that calcium oxalate dihydrate (COD) is usually the predominant phase, and in some cases is the only hydrate formed. The effects of trans-aconitic, succinic and acetic acids, all of which are present in sugarcane juice, and ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid disodium salt (EDTA) on the growth of CaOX crystals have been examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). trans-Aconitic acid, which constitutes two-thirds of the organic acid component in sugarcane juice, in the presence of sugar resulted in the formation of COD and COM in a 3:1 ratio. EDTA was the most effective acid to promote the formation of COD followed by trans-aconitic acid, then acetic acid and lastly succinic acid.

Drugs for hypertension, angina and heart failure

12.1 Drugs for hypertension 12.1.1 Epidemiology and pathophysiology 12.1.2 Diuretics for hypertension 12.2.3 Vasodilators for hypertension 12.4.4 β-Adrenoceptor blockers for hypertension 12.2. Drugs for angina 12.2.1 Typical angina 12.2.2 Drugs to treat an attack of typical angina 12,2.3 Drugs to prevent an attack of typical angina 12.2.4 Atypical angina 12.3 Drugs for heart failure 12.3.1 The heart failure epidemic 12.3.2 Compensatory changes in heart failure 12.3.3 Diuretics for heart failure 12.3.4 ACE inhibitors and AT1-receptor antagonists 12.3.5 β-adrenoceptor antagonists 12.3.6 Digoxin

Accurate placement of a pelvic binder improves reduction of unstable fractures of the pelvic ring

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of placement of pelvic binders and to determine whether circumferential compression at the level of the greater trochanters is the best method of reducing a symphyseal diastasis. Patients were identified by a retrospective review of all pelvic radiographs performed at a military hospital over a period of 30 months. We analysed any pelvic radiograph on which the buckle of the pelvic binder was clearly visible. The patients were divided into groups according to the position of the buckle in relation to the greater trochanters: high, trochanteric or low. Reduction of the symphyseal diastasis was measured in a subgroup of patients with an open-book fracture, which consisted of an injury to the symphysis and disruption of the posterior pelvic arch (AO/OTA 61-B/C). We identified 172 radiographs with a visible pelvic binder. Five cases were excluded due to inadequate radiographs. In 83 (50%) the binder was positioned at the level of the greater trochanters. A high position was the most common site of inaccurate placement, occurring in 65 (39%). Seventeen patients were identified as a subgroup to assess the effect of the position of the binder on reduction of the diastasis. The mean gap was 2.8 times greater (mean difference 22 mm) in the high group compared with the trochanteric group (p < 0.01). Application of a pelvic binder above the level of the greater trochanters is common and is an inadequate method of reducing pelvic fractures and is likely to delay cardiovascular recovery in these seriously injured patients.

Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

A pilot study in different unstable designs on the biomechanical effect of gait characteristics

The purpose of this study was to compare kinematics and kinetics during walking for healthy subjects using unstable shoes with different designs. Ten subjects participated in this study, and foot biomechanical data during walking were quantified using motion analysis system and a force plate. Data were collected for unstable shoes condition after accommodation period of one week. With soft material added in the heel region, the peak impact force was effectively reduced when compared among similar shapes. In addition, the soft material added in the rocker bottom showed more to be in dorsiflexed position during the initial stance. The shoe with three rocker curves design reduced the contact area in the heel strike, which may result in increasing human body forward speed. Further studies shall be carried out after adapting to long periods of wearing unstable shoes.