LMP estimation considering the uncertainty of wind power

One of the impediments to large-scale use of wind generation within power system is its variable and uncertain real-time availability. Due to the low marginal cost of wind power, its output will change the merit order of power markets and influence the Locational Marginal Price (LMP). For the large scale of wind power, LMP calculation can't ignore the essential variable and uncertain nature of wind power. This paper proposes an algorithm to estimate LMP. The estimation result of conventional Monte Carlo simulation is taken as benchmark to examine accuracy. Case study is conducted on a simplified SE Australian power system, and the simulation results show the feasibility of proposed method.

Yutori Kyoiku and the uncertainty of recent neo-liberal reforms in Japanese higher education

This paper draws upon the current situation within Japanese Higher Education. In particular the paper focuses on educational reforms and how they relate to the notions of Yutori Kyoiku which constituted a major attempt by Japanese education to develop individual student capacity. A clear subtext of the recent neo-liberal reform agenda is a desire to incorporated free-market ideals into the Japanese educational system. This paper raises several important problems connected to the reforms such as the decrease in classroom hours, changes to the contents of textbooks and a growing discrepancy in academic skills between students in different localities. These education reforms have impacted on notions of Yutori Kyoiku through the continuation of nationally standardized testing and changes directed at controlling the practices of classroom teachers. While acknowledging the current Japanese cabinet’s (DP) education policy has been inherited from an earlier LDP government, the paper points to similarities between the current reforms and the iconic Meiji era reforms of the late 1800s.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Fast unscented transformation-based transient stability margin estimation incorporating uncertainty of wind generation

Intermittent generation from wind farms leads to fluctuating power system operating conditions pushing the stability margin to its limits. The traditional way of determining the worst case generation dispatch for a system with several semi-scheduled wind generators yields a conservative solution. This paper proposes a fast estimation of the transient stability margin (TSM) incorporating the uncertainty of wind generation. First, the Kalman filter (KF) is used to provide linear estimation of system angle and then unscented transformation (UT) is used to estimate the distribution of the TSM. The proposed method is compared with the traditional Monte Carlo (MC) method and the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified using Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) and IEEE 14 generator Australian dynamic system. This method will aid grid operators to perform fast online calculations to estimate TSM distribution of a power system with high levels of intermittent wind generation.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Alternate structural system of incorporating flat bed rail wagons as low volume road bridge decks

The stimulus for this project rose from the need to find an alternative solution to aging superstructures of road-bridge in low volume roads (LVR). The solution investigated, designed and consequently plans to construct, involved replacing an aging super-structure of a 10m span bridge with Flat-Bed Rail Wagon (FBRW). The main focus of this paper is to present alternate structural system for the design of the FBRW as road bridge deck conforming to AS5100. The structural adequacy of the primary members of the FBRW was first validated using full scale experimental investigation to AS5100 serviceability and ultimate limit state loading. The bare FBRW was further developed to include a running surface. Two options were evaluated during the design phase, namely timber and reinforced concrete. First option, which is presented here, involved strengthening of the FBRW using numerous steel sections and overlaying the bridge deck with timber planks. The idea of this approach was to use all the primary and secondary members of the FBRW in load sharing and to provide additional members where weaknesses in the original members arose. The second option, which was the preferred option for construction, involved use of primary members only with an overlaying reinforced concrete slab deck. This option minimised the risk associated with any uncertainty of secondary members to its structural adequacy. The paper will report selected results of the experiment as well as the design phases of option one with conclusions highlighting the viability of option 1 and its limitations.

Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Parent decisions regarding paid work and care of the child

Australia has witnessed a continual increase in maternal employment over the past two decades, which has placed focus on child care- its effects on the child and on early childhood education and care policy and provision. The engagement of women in the paid workforce contributes to national economic development, and is recognised in government policy incentives such as cash subsidies and tax relief for child care fees. These incentives are targeted towards mothers, to encourage them to engage in paid work. Making a contribution to the family’s economy and to a mother’s economic self sufficiency are two key drivers for women’s engagement in satisfying paid work. Many women also seek to maintain a personal investment in the development of their career, simultaneously ensuring that the child is experiencing suitable care. Policies that support women’s choices for satisfying workforce engagement and care arrangements are prudent for ensuring productivity of the economy as well as for enhancing the wellbeing of parents and children (OECD, 2007). Policies that provide family friendly employment arrangements, paid parental leave, and child care support, directly affect maternal employment decisions. Availability of family friendly employment policies is viewed as one way to not only promote gender equity in employment opportunities but also support the wellbeing of children and families (OECD, 2007). Yet there are not comprehensive and coherent policies on work and family in Australia. Australia is due to implement its first paid parental leave scheme in January, 2011. At the time of the data collection of this research, June 2007 to December 2008, Australia had no statutory provision for paid parental leave. To date, most research has focused on the consequences of paid work and care decisions made by women. Far less is known about the processes of decision-making and reasons underlying women’s choices. Investigation of what is most salient for women as they make decisions regarding engagement in paid work, and care for their child is important in order to inform policy and practices related to parental leave, family friendly employment and care for the child. This prospective longitudinal research was of 124 Australian expectant first-time mothers who completed questionnaires in their third trimester of pregnancy, and again at six and twelve months postpartum. First-time expectant mothers' decisions regarding engaging in paid work and selecting care for their child represent those of a group who are invested in motherhood and have usually had direct experience of engaging in paid work. They therefore provide an important insight into society’s idealised views about motherhood and the emotional and social uncertainty of making personal decisions where the consequences of such decisions are unknown. These decisions reflect public beliefs about the role of women in contributing to the country’s productivity and decisions about providing for the economic and emotional care needs of their family. As so little is known about the reasoning and processes of decision-making of women’s choices regarding paid work and care of the child this research was designed to capture expectant first-time mother’s preferred options for engaging in paid work and the care of their child, and investigate their actual decisions made at six and 12 months postpartum. To capture preferred options, decisions and outcomes of decisions regarding paid work and care of the child a prospective longitudinal research design was utilised. This design had three important components that addressed key limitations in the extant literature. First the research commenced in pregnancy in order to investigate preferences and beliefs about paid work and care and to examine baseline data that may influence decisions made as the women returned to paid work. Second the research involved longitudinal tracking from the antenatal time point to six and 12 months postpartum in order to identify the influences on decisions made. Third the research measured outcomes of the decisions made at each time point. This research examined the intentions, preferences, beliefs, influences, and outcomes of the decisions about engagement in paid work and choice of care. The analyses examined factors predicting return to paid work, the timing of return and extent of engagement in paid work; the care for the child; satisfaction with paid work; satisfaction with care for the child, motherhood and fulfilment; and maternal wellbeing at six and 12 months postpartum. The factors of interest were both rational/economic (availability and extent of paid and unpaid maternity leave; flexible work patterns) and emotional/affective (career satisfaction, investment in motherhood, and concern with quality of care for the child). Results indicated a group preference, and realisation for, return to paid work within the first year after the birth of a child but with reduction in hours to part-time. Most women saw paid work not only as a source of income but also as source of personal satisfaction. There were four key themes arising from this research. First, the women strived to feel emotionally secure when deciding about engaging in paid work and care of the child. To achieve emotional security women made their decisions for paid work and care of the child differently. A woman’s decision for maternal employment is a function of her personal beliefs, preferences and context regarding paid work and care of the child. She adjusts her established work identity with her new identity as a mother. The second key theme from this research is that the women made their decisions for maternal employment in response to their personal context and there were different levels of opportunities between the women’s choices. There is inequity of entitlement regarding work conditions associated with a woman’s education level. This has implications for the woman’s engagement in paid work, and her child’s health and wellbeing. The third key theme is that the quality of the child’s care mattered to the women in the research. They preferred care provided by parents and/or relatives more than any other types of care. The fourth key theme identified that satisfaction and wellbeing outcomes experienced as a result of maternal employment decisions were a complex interaction between multiple factors that change across time with the ongoing development of the mother’s identity, and the development of the child. The implications for policy within Australia are that the employment of mothers in the workforce necessitates that non-parental care becomes a public concern, where there is universal access to good quality affordable care for every child, not just for those who can afford it. This is equitable and represents real choice while supporting the rights of the child (Thorpe, Cloney & Tayler, 2010), protecting and promoting the public interest (Cleveland & Krashinsky, 2010). Children’s health and wellbeing will be supported (Moore & Oberklaid, 2010) while children are in non-parental care, and they will be exposed to environments and experiences that support their learning and development. The significant design of the research enabled the trajectories of first-time expectant women to be tracked from the antenatal point to 12 months postpartum. But there were limitations: the small sample size, the over-representation of the sample being highly educated and the nature of a longitudinal research that is set within the economic, social and political context at that time. These limitations are discussed in relation to suggestions for future research.

A study of environmental and management drivers of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in Australian agro-ecosystems

Australian climate, soils and agricultural management practices are significantly different from those of the northern hemisphere nations. Consequently, experimental data on greenhouse gas production from European and North American agricultural soils and its interpretation are unlikely to be directly applicable to Australian systems. A programme of studies of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture has been established that is designed to reduce uncertainty of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory and provide outputs that will enable better on-farm management practices for reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, particularly nitrous oxide. The systems being examined and their locations are irrigated pasture (Kyabram Victoria), irrigated cotton (Narrabri, NSW), irrigated maize (Griffith, NSW), rain-fed wheat (Rutherglen, Victoria) and rain-fed wheat (Cunderdin, WA). The field studies include treatments with and without fertilizer addition, stubble burning versus stubble retention, conventional cultivation versus direct drilling and crop rotation to determine emission factors and treatment possibilities for best management options. The data to date suggest that nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen fertilizer, applied to irrigated dairy pastures and rain-fed winter wheat, appear much lower than the average of northern hemisphere grain and pasture studies. More variable emissions have been found in studies of irrigated cotton/vetch/wheat rotation and substantially higher emissions from irrigated maize.

Probability analysis of machine angle stability with non-gaussian wind power input

The security of power transfer across a given transmission link is typically a steady state assessment. This paper develops tools to assess machine angle stability as affected by a combination of faults and uncertainty of wind power using probability analysis. The paper elaborates on the development of the theoretical assessment tool and demonstrates its efficacy using single machine infinite bus system.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

A new framework of measuring national nutrients balance for international and global comparison

Nutrients balance such as nitrogen and phosphorus balance are increasingly used as an indicator of the environmental performance of agricultural sector in international and global context. However there still is a lack of harmony in the use of methods for estimating the nutrients balance among countries. This is because of the disagreement regarding the accuracy and uncertainty of different accounting methods. The lack of harmony in the methods used in different countries further increases the uncertainty in the context of the international comparisons. This paper provides a new framework for nutrients balance calculation using the farm-gate accounting method. The calculation under this new framework takes advantage of availability of data from FAO and other reliable national and international sources. Due to this, the proposed framework is highly adaptable in many countries, making the global comparison feasible. The paper also proposes three criteria including adaptability, accuracy and interpretability to assess the appropriateness of nutrients accounting method. Based on these criteria, the paper provides a comprehensive comparison of the farm-gate and soil-surface methods in accounting country-level nutrients balance of agricultural production. The paper identifies some shortcomings of the soil-surface balance and shows that the farm-gate method has a greater potential of providing a more accurate and meaningful estimation of national nutrients balance.

A Critical Perspective of the Indonesian Institutional Framework for PPP Toll Roads

The development of toll roads in Indonesia started around 1978. Initially, the management and development of toll roads sat directly under the Government of Indonesia (GoI) being undertaken through PT JasaMarga, a state owned enterprise specifically established to provide toll roads. Due to the slow growth and low capability of toll roads to fulfil infrastructure needs in the first ten years of operation (only 2.688kms/year), GoI changed its strategy in 1989 to one of using private sector participation for roads delivery through a Public Private Partnership (PPP) scheme. In this latter period, PT JasaMarga had two roles, both as regulator on behalf of the private sector as well as being the operator. However, from 1989 to 2004 the growth rate of toll roads actually decreased further to 2.300kms/year. Facing this challenge of low growth rate of toll roads, in 2004GoI changed the toll road management system and the role of regulator was returned to the Government through the establishment of the Toll Road Regulatory Agency (BPJT). GoI also amended the institutional framework to strengthen the toll road management system. Despite the introduction of this new institutional framework, the growth of toll roads still showed insignificant change. This problem in toll road development has generated an urgent need for research into this issue. The aim of the research is to understand the performance of the new institutional framework in enhancing PPP procured toll road development. The methodology of the research was to undertake a questionnaire survey distributed to private sector respondents involved in toll road development. The results of this study show that there are several problems inherent in the institutional framework, but the most significant problem comes from the uncertainty of the function of the strategic executive body in the land expropriation process.