The role of U.S. timberland in real estate portfolios

Timberland is seen as a long-term investment which has recently received increased institutional investor attention in many countries and potentially provides added value in a mixed-asset portfolio. Using the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) timberland series, this paper analyses the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of timberland in the United States over the period of 1987-2007. U.S. timberland is seen to have been a strongly performed asset class with significant portfolio diversification benefits over this period; with a significant portfolio role separate to that of real estate. However, recent years have seen reduced risk-adjusted returns, with some loss of portfolio diversification benefits of timberland with stocks and real estate. Global drivers are likely to see increased future demand for timberland investment.

The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

Saturated core high-temperature superconducting fault current limiters as an alternative to conventional series reactors in a distribution grid

Series reactors are used in distribution grids to reduce the short-circuit fault level. Some of the disadvantages of the application of these devices are the voltage drop produced across the reactor and the steep front rise of the transient recovery voltage (TRV), which generally exceeds the rating of the associated circuit breaker. Simulations were performed to compare the characteristics of a saturated core High-Temperature Superconducting Fault Current Limiter (HTS FCL) and a series reactor. The design of the HTS FCL was optimized using the evolutionary algorithm. The resulting Pareto frontier curve of optimum solution is presented in this paper. The results show that the steady-state impedance of an HTS FCL is significantly lower than that of a series reactor for the same level of fault current limiting. Tests performed on a prototype 11 kV HTS FCL confirm the theoretical results. The respective transient recovery voltages (TRV) of the HTS FCL and an air core reactor of comparable fault current limiting capability are also determined. The results show that the saturated core HTS FCL has a significantly lower effect on the rate of rise of the circuit breaker TRV as compared to the air core reactor. The simulations results are validated with shortcircuit test results.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

A single institution experience of streptozocin/fluorouracil combination chemotherapy : a case series

Background The combination chemotherapy regimen of streptozocin and 5-fluorouracil (FU/STZ) has been used for the treatment of metastatic neuroendocrine tumours. Aim The aim of this study was to analyse the use of this regimen in a tertiary oncology referral centre over a 10-year period. Method We retrospectively analysed nine cases from February 2000 to May 2010. Patient demographics, chemotherapy schedule, toxicities, progression-free and overall survival were tabulated for each patient. Result The median progression-free survival was 17 months (range 3-48+ months), and overall survival 31 months (range 12-53+ months) with no toxicity related deaths. Conclusion FU/STZ was a well-tolerated regimen that produced significant benefit in the setting of metastatic and progressive disease. Our case series demonstrated comparable progression-free survival and overall survival in relation to randomized controlled studies and previous case series. © Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland 2011.

Geologic map of the Valley Mountain 15’ quadrangle, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California: U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Quadrangle Map GQ–1767, scale 1:62,500

The Valley Mountain 15’ quadrangle straddles the Pinto Mountain Fault, which bounds the eastern Transverse Ranges in the south against the Mojave Desert province in the north. The Pinto Mountains, part of the eastern Transverse Ranges in the south part of the quadrangle expose a series of Paleoproterozoic gneisses and granite and the Proterozoic quartzite of Pinto Mountain. Early Triassic quartz monzonite intruded the gneisses and was ductiley deformed prior to voluminous Jurassic intrusion of diorite, granodiorite, quartz monzonite, and granite plutons. The Jurassic rocks include part of the Bullion Mountains Intrusive Suite, which crops out prominently at Valley Mountain and in the Bullion Mountains, as well as in the Pinto Mountains. Jurassic plutons in the southwest part of the quadrangle are deeply denuded from midcrustal emplacement levels in contrast to supracrustal Jurassic limestone and volcanic rocks exposed in the northeast. Dikes inferred to be part of the Jurassic Independence Dike Swarm intrude the Jurassic plutons and Proterozoic rocks. Late Cretaceous intrusion of the Cadiz Valley Batholith in the northeast caused contact metamorphism of adjacent Jurassic plutonic rocks...

Tests on price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets

We tested the price linkage, the law of one price (LOP) condition, and the causality of the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets with consideration of structural breaks in the price series. The LOP condition did not hold for both the gold and silver markets when structural breaks were not considered but it sustained in some periods when it was tested for the break periods. We found from the causality test that the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets were led by the U.S. market.

Low δ18O zircons from the Bruneau-­Jarbidge eruptive center: A key to crustal anatexis along the track of the Yellowstone hotspot

The Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center (BJEC) in the central Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA consists of the Cougar Point Tuff (CPT), a series of ten, high-temperature (900-1000°C) voluminous ignimbrites produced over the explosive phase of volcanism (12.8-10.5 Ma) and more than a dozen equally high-temperature rhyolite lava flows produced during the effusive phase (10.5-8 Ma). Spot analyses by ion microprobe of oxygen isotope ratios in 210 zircons demonstrate that all of the eruptive units of the BJEC are characterized by zircon δ¹⁸O values ≤ 2.5‰, thus documenting the largest low δ¹⁸O silicic volcanic province known on Earth (>10⁴ km³). There is no evidence for voluminous normal δ¹⁸O magmatism at the BJEC that precedes generation of low δ¹⁸O magmas as there is at other volcanic centers that generate low δ¹⁸O magmas such as Heise and Yellowstone. At these younger volcanic centers of the hotspot track, such low δ¹⁸O magmas represent ~45 % and ~20% respectively of total eruptive volumes. Zircons in all BJEC tuffs and lavas studied (23 units) document strong δ¹⁸O depletion (median CPT δ¹⁸OZrc = 1.0‰, post-CPT lavas = 1.5‰) with the third member of the CPT recording an excursion to minimum δ¹⁸O values (δ¹⁸OZrc= -1.8‰) in a supereruption > 2‰ lower than other voluminous low δ¹⁸O rhyolites known worldwide (δ¹⁸OWR ≤0.9 vs. 3.4‰). Subsequent units of the CPT and lavas record a progressive recovery in δ¹⁸OZrc to ~2.5‰ over a ~ 4 m.y. interval (12 to 8 Ma). We present detailed evidence of unit-to-unit systematic patterns in O isotopic zoning in zircons (i.e. direction and magnitude of Δcore-rim), spectrum of δ¹⁸O in individual units, and zircon inheritance patterns established by re-analysis of spots for U-Th-Pb isotopes by LA-ICPMS and SHRIMP. In conjunction with mineral thermometry and magma compositions, these patterns are difficult to reconcile with the well-established model for "cannibalistic" low δ¹⁸O magma genesis at Heise and Yellowstone. We present an alternative model for the central Snake River Plain using the modeling results of Leeman et al. (2008) for ¹⁸O depletion as a function of depth in a mid-upper crustal protolith that was hydrothermally altered by infiltrating meteoric waters prior to the onset of silicic magmatism. The model proposes that BJEC silicic magmas were generated in response to the propagation of a melting front, driven by the incremental growth of a vast underlying mafic sill complex, over a ~5 m.y. interval through a crustal volume in which a vertically asymmetric δ¹⁸OWR gradient had previously developed that was sharply inflected from ~ -1 to 10‰ at mid-upper crustal depths. Within the context of the model, data from BJEC zircons are consistent with incremental melting and mixing events in roof zones of magma reservoirs that accompany surfaceward advance of the coupled mafic-silicic magmatic system.

Business busts and U.S. auditors' interest in fraud detection: Evidence from the 20th century

We find evidence that U.S. auditors increased their attention to fraud detection during or immediately after the economic contractions of the 20th century, based on a content analysis of the 12 volumes of the 20th-century auditing reference series Montgomery’s Auditing. Contractions, however, do not seem to have affected auditors’ attention to the formal goal of fraud detection. The study suggests that auditors’ aversion to the heightened risks of fraud during economic downturns leads them to focus more on fraud detection at those times regardless of the particular guidance in formal audit standards. This study is the first to find some evidence of a recession-influenced difference between fraud detection practices and formal fraud detection goals.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.