Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

National architecture conference 2012

May was a particularly busy month with lots of exciting architectural things happening in Brisbane, including the sell-out 2012 National Architecture Conference. The total number of conference attendees was 1,625, which was the largest number of attendees to any Australian National Architecture Conference to date. This was the first time that the National Architecture Conference had been held in Brisbane in over 20 years, and the enormous turnout of 947 Queenslanders to the conference was testament to the positive decision to include Brisbane as a conference venue. The theme of this year’s conference was ‘experience’. Building on ideas introduced in the recent ‘natural artifice’ conference, creative directors Shane Thompson, Michael Rayner and Peter Skinner focused closely on the real, sensed experience of architecture within its natural and constructed settings and the experience of designing and making architecture. The conference attracted a variety of high profile international speakers, including architect and professor, Wang Shu, the 2012 Pritzker Architecture Prize Laureate and co-founder of the Amateur Architecture Studio in China. Other highlights included presentations from Peter Rich [South Africa], Kathryn Findlay [United Kingdom], Rachel Neeson [Australia], Anuradha Mathur & Dilip da Cunha [United States] and Kjetil Thorsen [Norway]. QUT had a strong presence at the conference. In addition to pleasing attendance rates from QUT School of Design students and staff, our Head-of-School Professor Paul Sanders, was given the honourable task of introducing keynote speaker Peter Rich, and facilitating the Q&A session after his presentation, which received a standing ovation. There were many events organised for students and young architects by QUT’s SONA reps, including a masterclass, opening party, collaborative design and construction of the SONA Pavilion, and finally, organisation of the all important SONA Hangover Breakfast, the morning after the closing party. The 2012 National Architecture Conference was truly memorable and an experience not to have been missed. I encourage anyone with a passion for architecture and a desire to be completely inspired by current and emerging leaders in our exciting profession, to start making plans to attend next year’s conference.

Bounded rationality and voting decisions over 160 years : voter behavior and increasing complexity in decision-making

Using a quasi-natural voting experiment encompassing a 160-year period (1848–2009) in Switzerland, we investigate whether a higher level of complexity leads to increased reliance on trusted parliamentary representatives. We find that when more referenda are held on the same day, constituents are more likely to refer to parliamentary recommendations when making their decisions. This finding holds true even when we narrow our focus to referenda with a relatively lower voter turnout on days on which more than one referendum is held. We also demonstrate that when constituents face a higher level of complexity, they follow the parliamentary recommendations rather than those of interest groups. "Viewed as a geometric figure, the ant’s path is irregular, complex, hard to describe. But its complexity is really a complexity in the surface of the beach, not a complexity in the ant." ([1] p. 51)

Essays in the political economy of voting and reforms

This thesis presents four essays in the political economy of elections and reforms. The first study exploits discontinuities around school entry cut-off dates to show that early childhood conditions can impact the probability to become a top-flight politician. The second study provides empirical estimates of the effect of sequential voting on turnout and bandwagon voting outside the laboratory. The third work describes a novel nonparametric strategy to identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results using British election data. Finally, a study is put forward that examines the political feasibility of reforms.