Rejoinder to James Hamilton

Hamilton (2001) makes a number of comments on our paper (Harding and Pagan, 2002b). The objectives of this rejoinder are, firstly, to note the areas in which we agree; secondly, to define with greater clarity the areas in which we disagree; and, thirdly, to point to other papers, including a longer version of this response, where we have dealt with some of the issues that he raises. The core of our debate with him is whether one should use an algorithm with a specified set of rules for determining the turning points in economic activity or whether one should use a parametric model that features latent states. Hamilton begins his criticism by stating that there is a philosophical distinction between the two methods for dating cycles and concludes that the method we use “leaves vague and intuitive exactly what this algorithm is intended to measure”. Nothing is further from the truth. When seeking ways to decide on whether a turning point has occurred it is always useful to ask the question, what is a recession? Common usage suggests that it is a decline in the level of economic activity that lasts for some time. For this reason it has become standard to describe a recession as a decline in GDP that lasts for more than two quarters. Finding periods in which quarterly GDP declined for two periods is exactly what our approach does. What is vague about this?

Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

Meeting under the “Omei” Tree in the Torres Strait Islands : networks and funds of knowledge of mathematical ideas

This paper focuses on the turning point experiences that worked to transform the researcher during a preliminary consultation process to seek permission to conduct of a small pilot project on one Torres Strait Island. The project aimed to learn from parents how they support their children in their mathematics learning. Drawing on a community research design, a consultative meeting was held with one Torres Strait Islander community to discuss the possibility of piloting a small project that focused on working with parents and children to learn about early mathematics processes. Preliminary data indicated that parents use networks in their community. It highlighted the funds of knowledge of mathematics that exist in the community and which are used to teach their children. Such knowledges are situated within a community’s unique histories, culture and the voices of the people. “Omei” tree means the Tree of Wisdom in the Island community.

Legal, cultural and practical developments in responding to female genital mutilation : can an absolute human right emerge?

Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a cultural practice involving the deliberate, non-therapeutic physical modification of young girls’ genitalia. FGM can take several forms, ranging from smaller incisions, to removal of the clitoris and labia, and narrowing or even closing of the vagina. FGM predates and has no basis in the Koran, or any other religious text. Rather, it is a cultural tradition, particularly common in Islamic societies in regions of Africa, motivated by a patriarchal society’s desire to control female bodies and lives. The primary reason for this desire for control is to ensure virginity at marriage, thereby preserving family honour, within a patriarchal social structure where females’ value as persons is intrinsically connected to, and limited to, their worth as virgin brides. Recent efforts at legal prohibition and practical eradication in a growing number of African nations mark a significant turning point in how societies treat females. This shift in cultural power has been catalysed by a concern for female health, but it has also been motivated by an impulse to promote the human rights of girls and women. Although FGM remains widely practiced and there is much progress yet to be made before its eradication, the rights-based approach which has grown in strength embodies a marked shift in cultural power which reflects progress in women’s and children’s rights in the Western world, but which is now being applied in a different cultural context. This chapter reviews the nature of FGM, its prevalence, and health consequences. It discusses recent legal, cultural and practical developments, especially in African nations. Finally, this chapter raises the possibility that an absolute human right against FGM may emerge.

Factors associated with common mental disorders during the transition to adulthood : do emerging adults and ‘early starters’ differ? Findings from an Australian birth cohort study

Background: Despite increasing diversity in pathways to adulthood, choices available to young people are influenced by environmental, familial and individual factors, namely access to socioeconomic resources, family support and mental and physical health status. Young people from families with higher socioeconomic position (SEP) are more likely to pursue tertiary education and delay entry to adulthood, whereas those from low socioeconomic backgrounds are less likely to attain higher education or training, and more likely to partner and become parents early. The first group are commonly termed ‘emerging adults’ and the latter group ‘early starters’. Mental health disorders during this transition can seriously disrupt psychological, social and academic development as well as employment prospects. Depression, anxiety and most substance use disorders have early onset during adolescence and early adulthood with approximately three quarters of lifetime psychiatric disorders having emerged by 24 years of age. Aims: This thesis aimed to explore the relationships between mental health, sociodemographic factors and family functioning during the transition to adulthood. Four areas were investigated: 1) The key differences between emerging adults and ‘early starters’, were examined and focused on a series of social, economic, and demographic factors as well as DSM-IV diagnoses; 2) Methodological issues associated with the measurement of depression and anxiety in young adults were explored by comparing a quantitative measure of symptoms of anxiety and depression (Achenbach’s YSR and YASR internalising scales) with DSM-IV diagnosed depression and anxiety. 3) The association between family SEP and DSM-IV depression and anxiety was examined in relation to the different pathways to adulthood. 4) Finally, the association between pregnancy loss, abortion and miscarriage, and DSM-IV diagnoses of common psychiatric disorders was assessed in young women who reported early parenting, experiencing a pregnancy loss, or who had never been pregnant. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a large birth cohort started in 1981 in Brisbane, Australia. 7223 mothers and their children were assessed five times, at 6 months, 5, 14 and 21 years after birth. Over 3700 young adults, aged 18 to 23 years, were interviewed at the 21-year phase. Respondents completed an extensive series of self-reported questionnaires and a computerised structured psychiatric interview. Three outcomes were assessed at the 21-year phase. Mental health disorders diagnosed by a computerised structured psychiatric interview (CIDI-Auto), the prevalence of DSM-IV depression, anxiety and substance use disorders within the previous 12-month, during the transition (between ages of 18 and 23 years) or lifetime were examined. The primary outcome “current stage in the transition to adulthood” was developed using a measure conceptually constructed from the literature. The measure was based on important demographic markers, and these defined four independent groups: emerging adults (single with no children and living with parents), and three categories of ‘early starter’, singles (with no children or partner, living independently), those with a partner (married or cohabitating but without children) and parents. Early pregnancy loss was assessed using a measure that also defined four independent groups and was based on pregnancy outcomes in the young women This categorised the young women into those who were never pregnant, women who gave birth to a live child, and women who reported some form of pregnancy loss, either an abortion or a spontaneous miscarriage. A series of analyses were undertaken to test the study aims. Potential confounding and mediating factors were prospectively measured between the child’s birth and the 21-year phase. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of relevant outcomes, and the associations were reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Key findings: The thesis makes a number of important contributions to our understanding of the transition to adulthood, particularly in relation to the mental health consequences associated with different pathways. Firstly, findings from the thesis clearly showed that young people who parented or partnered early fared worse across most of the economic and social factors as well as the common mental disorders when compared to emerging adults. That is, young people who became early parents were also more likely to experience recent anxiety (OR=2.0, 95%CI 1.5-2.8) and depression (OR=1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.7) than were emerging adults after taking into account a range of confounding factors. Singles and those partnering early also had higher rates of lifetime anxiety and depression than emerging adults. Young people who partnered early, but were without children, had decreased odds of recent depression; this may be due to the protective effect of early marriage against depression. It was also found that young people who form families early had an increased risk of cigarette smoking (parents OR=3.7, 95%CI 2.9-4.8) compared to emerging adults, but not heavy alcohol (parents OR=0.4, 95%CI 0.3-0.6) or recent illicit drug use. The high rates of cigarette smoking and tobacco use disorders in ‘early starters’ were explained by common risk factors related to early adversity and lower SEP. Having a child and early marriage may well function as a ‘turning point’ for some young people, it is not clear whether this is due to a conscious decision to disengage from a previous ‘substance using’ lifestyle or simply that they no longer have the time to devote to such activities because of child caring. In relation to the methodological issues associated with assessing common mental disorders in young adults, it was found that although the Achenbach empirical internalising scales successfully predicted both later DSM-IV depression (YSR OR=2.3, 95%CI 1.7-3.1) and concurrently diagnosed depression (YASR OR=6.9, 95%CI 5.0- 9.5) and anxiety (YASR OR=5.1, 95%CI 3.8- 6.7), the scales discriminated poorly between young people with or without DSM-IV diagnosed mood disorder. Sensitivity values (the proportion of true positives) for the internalising scales were surprisingly low. Only a third of young people with current DSM-IV depression (range for each of the scales was between 34% to 42%) were correctly identified as cases by the YASR internalising scales, and only a quarter with current anxiety disorder (range of 23% to 31%) were correctly identified. Also, use of the DSM-oriented scales increased sensitivity only marginally (for depression between 2-8%, and anxiety between 2-6%) above the standard Achenbach scales. This is despite the fact that the DSM-oriented scales were originally developed to overcome the poor prediction of DSM-IV diagnoses by the Achenbach scales. The internalising scales, both standard and DSM-oriented, were much more effective at identifying young people with comorbid depression and anxiety, with OR’s 10.1 to 21.7 depending on the internalising scale used. SEP is an important predictor of both an early transition to adulthood and the experience of anxiety during that time Family income during adolescence was a strong predictor of early parenting and partnering before age 24 but not early independent living. Compared to families in the upper quintile, young people from families with low income were nearly twice as likely to live with a partner and four times more likely to become parents (OR ranged from 2.6 to 4.0). This association remained after adjusting for current employment and education level. Children raised in low income families were 30% more likely to have an anxiety disorder (OR=1.3, 95%CI 0.9-1.9), but not depression, as young adults when compared to children from wealthier families. Emerging adults and ‘early starters’ from low income families did not differ in their likelihood of having a later anxiety disorder. Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis) [abortion OR=3.6, 95%CI 2.0-6.7 and miscarriage OR=2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.4]. Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95%CI 1.3- 3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95%CI 1.1- 3.1). These finding suggest that the association identified by Fergusson et al between abortion and later psychiatric disorders in young women may be due to pregnancy loss and not to abortion, per se. Conclusion: Findings from this thesis support the view that young people who parent or partner early have a greater burden of depression and anxiety when compared to emerging adults. As well, young women experiencing pregnancy loss, from either abortion or miscarriage, are more likely to experience depression and anxiety than are those who give birth to a live infant or who have never been pregnant. Depression, anxiety and substance use disorders often go unrecognised and untreated in young people; this is especially true in young people from lower SEP. Early identification of these common mental health disorders is important, as depression and anxiety experienced during the transition to adulthood have been found to seriously disrupt an individual’s social, educational and economic prospects in later life.

Mapping the conditions of penal hope

This article examines the conditions of penal hope behind suggestions that the penal expansionism of the last three decades may be at a ‘turning point’. The article proceeds by outlining David Green’s (2013b) suggested catalysts of penal reform and considers how applicable they are in the Australian context. Green’s suggested catalysts are: the cycles and saturation thesis; shifts in the dominant conception of the offender; the global financial crisis (GFC) and budgetary constraints; the drop in crime; the emergence of the prisoner re‐entry movement; apparent shifts in public opinion; the influence of evangelical Christian ideas; and the Right on Crime initiative. The article then considers a number of other possible catalysts or forces: the role of trade unions; the role of courts; the emergence of recidivism as a political issue; the influence of ‘evidence based’/‘what works’ discourse; and the emergence of justice reinvestment (JR). The article concludes with some comments about the capacity of criminology and criminologists to contribute to penal reductionism, offering an optimistic assessment for the prospects of a reflexive criminology that engages in and engenders a wider politics around criminal justice issues.

Carcinoma invasion and metastasis : a role for epithelial-mesenchymal transition?

Carcinogenesis involves the accretion of unprogrammed genetic and epigenetic changes, which lead to dysregulation of the normal control of cell number. But a key clinical turning point in carcinoma progression is the establishment by emigrant cells of secondary growth sites (i.e., metastasis). The metastatic “cascade” comprises numerous steps, including escape from the primary tumor site, penetration of local stroma, entry of local vascular or lymphatic vessels (intravasation), aggregation with platelets, interaction with and adhesion to distant endothelia, extravasation, recolonization, and expansion ( 1), all the time avoiding effective immune clearance and being able to survive in these multiple contexts...

Security and the War on Terror

The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 marked a turning point in international politics, representing a new type of threat that could not easily be anticipated or prevented through state-based structures of security alone. Opening up interdisciplinary conversations between strategic, economic, ethical and legal approaches to global terrorism, this edited book recognises a fundamental issue: while major crises initially tend to reinforce old thinking and behavioural patterns, they also allow societies to challenge and overcome entrenched habits, thereby creating the foundations for a new and perhaps more peaceful future. This volume addresses the issues that are at stake in this dual process of political closure, and therefore rethinks how states can respond to terrorist threats. The contributors range from leading conceptual theorists to policy-oriented analysts, from senior academics to junior researchers. The book explores how terrorism has had a profound impact on how security is being understood and implemented, and uses a range of hitherto neglected sources of insight, such as those between political, economic, legal and ethical factors, to examine the nature and meaning of security in a rapidly changing world.

Which industry is greener? An empirical study of nine industries in OECD countries

This study analyzed the relationship between the CO2 emissions of different industries and economic growth in OECD countries from 1970 to 2005. We tested an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and found that total CO2 emissions from nine industries show an N-shaped trend instead of an inverted U or monotonic increasing trend with increasing income. The EKC hypothesis for sector-level CO2 emissions was supported in the (1) paper, pulp, and printing industry; (2) wood and wood products industry; and (3) construction industry. We also found that emissions from coal and oil increase with economic growth in the steel and construction industries. In addition, the non-metallic minerals, machinery, and transport equipment industries tend to have increased emissions from oil and electricity with economic growth. Finally, the EKC turning point and the relationship between GDP per capita and sectoral CO2 emissions differ among industries according to the fuel type used. Therefore, environmental policies for CO2 reduction must consider these differences in industrial characteristics. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Coming of Age in 9/11 Fiction: Bildungsroman and Loss of Innocence

Directly after the horrific events of September 11, 2001, many Americans were saying the same thing: the world has changed forever. They were overwhelmed with a sense that “the party was over.” It was clear that America had lost its innocence; it now had to “grow up.” Much of the fiction produced since 9/11 and with 9/11 at its core provides evidence of the larger cultural belief that September 11 was a turning point (much like adolescence) from which there is no turning back. In this chapter, I examine how three post-9/11 novels—Lorrie Moore’s A Gate at the Stairs, Joyce Maynard’s The Usual Rules, and John Updike’s Terrorist—position readers to understand September 11 as a moment that changed how young Americans come of age.

The practice of adaptation : turning fact and fiction into theatre

Adaptation of novels and other source texts into theatre has proven to be a recurring and popular form of writing through the ages. This study argues that as the theoretical discourse has moved on from outmoded notions of fidelity to original sources, the practice of adaptation is a method of re-invigorating theatre forms and inventing new ones. This practice-led research employed a tripartite methodology comprised of the writing of two play adaptations, participation by the author/researcher in their productions, and exegetical components focused on the development and deployment of analytical tools. These tools were derived from theoretical literature and a creative practice based on acquired professional artistry "learnt by doing" over a longstanding professional career as actor, director and writer. A suite of analytical tools was developed through the three phases of the first project, the adaptation of Nick Earls’ novel Perfect Skin. The tools draw on Cardwell’s "comparative analysis", which encompasses close consideration of generic context, authorial context and medium-specific context; and on Stam’s "mechanics of narrative": order, duration, frequency, the narrator and point of view. A third analytical lens was developed from an awareness of the significance of the commissioning brief and ethical considerations and obligations to the source text and its author and audience. The tripartite methodology provided an adaptation template that was applied to the writing and production of the second play Red Cap, which used factual and anecdotal sources. The second play’s exegesis (Chapter 10) analyses the effectiveness of the suite of analytical tools and the reception of the production in order to conclude the study with a workable model for use in the practice of adapting existing texts, both factual and fictional, for the theatre.

Turning event logs into process movies: animating what has really happened

Today’s information systems log vast amounts of data. These collections of data (implicitly) describe events (e.g. placing an order or taking a blood test) and, hence, provide information on the actual execution of business processes. The analysis of such data provides an excellent starting point for business process improvement. This is the realm of process mining, an area which has provided a repertoire of many analysis techniques. Despite the impressive capabilities of existing process mining algorithms, dealing with the abundance of data recorded by contemporary systems and devices remains a challenge. Of particular importance is the capability to guide the meaningful interpretation of “oceans of data” by process analysts. To this end, insights from the field of visual analytics can be leveraged. This article proposes an approach where process states are reconstructed from event logs and visualised in succession, leading to an animated history of a process. This approach is customisable in how a process state, partially defined through a collection of activity instances, is visualised: one can select a map and specify a projection of events on this map based on the properties of the events. This paper describes a comprehensive implementation of the proposal. It was realised using the open-source process mining framework ProM. Moreover, this paper also reports on an evaluation of the approach conducted with Suncorp, one of Australia’s largest insurance companies.