Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Human herpesvirus 8 load and progression of AIDS-related Kaposi sarcoma lesions

Introduction—Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) is necessary for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) to develop, but whether peripheral blood viral load is a marker of KS burden (total number of KS lesions), KS progression (the rate of eruption of new KS lesions), or both is unclear. We investigated these relationships in persons with AIDS. Methods—Newly diagnosed patients with AIDS-related KS attending Mulago Hospital, in Kampala, Uganda, were assessed for KS burden and progression by questionnaire and medical examination. Venous blood samples were taken for HHV8 load measurements by PCR. Associations were examined with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression models and with t-tests. Results—Among 74 patients (59% men), median age was 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 28.5-41). HHV8 DNA was detected in 93% and quantified in 77% patients. Median virus load was 3.8 logs10/106 peripheral blood cells (IQR 3.4-5.0) and was higher in men than women (4.4 vs. 3.8 logs; p=0.04), in patients with faster (>20 lesions per year) than slower rate of KS lesion eruption (4.5 vs. 3.6 logs; p<0.001), and higher, but not significantly, among patients with more (>median [20] KS lesions) than fewer KS lesions (4.4 vs. 4.0 logs; p=0.16). HHV8 load was unrelated to CD4 lymphocyte count (p=0.23). Conclusions—We show significant association of HHV8 load in peripheral blood with rate of eruption of KS lesions, but not with total lesion count. Our results suggest that viral load increases concurrently with development of new KS lesions.

Concentration and oxidative potential of on-road particle emissions and their relationship with traffic composition : Relevance to exposure assessment

Particles emitted by vehicles are known to cause detrimental health effects, with their size and oxidative potential among the main factors responsible. Therefore, understanding the relationship between traffic composition and both the physical characteristics and oxidative potential of particles is critical. To contribute to the limited knowledge base in this area, we investigated this relationship in a 4.5 km road tunnel in Brisbane, Australia. On-road concentrations of ultrafine particles (<100 nm, UFPs), fine particles (PM2.5), CO, CO2 and particle associated reactive oxygen species (ROS) were measured using vehicle-based mobile sampling. UFPs were measured using a condensation particle counter and PM2.5 with a DustTrak aerosol photometer. A new profluorescent nitroxide probe, BPEAnit, was used to determine ROS levels. Comparative measurements were also performed on an above-ground road to assess the role of emission dilution on the parameters measured. The profile of UFP and PM2.5 concentration with distance through the tunnel was determined, and demonstrated relationships with both road gradient and tunnel ventilation. ROS levels in the tunnel were found to be high compared to an open road with similar traffic characteristics, which was attributed to the substantial difference in estimated emission dilution ratios on the two roadways. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the levels of pollutants and ROS were generally better correlated with total traffic count, rather than the traffic composition (i.e. diesel and gasoline-powered vehicles). A possible reason for the lack of correlation with HDV, which has previously been shown to be strongly associated with UFPs especially, was the low absolute numbers encountered during the sampling. This may have made their contribution to in-tunnel pollution largely indistinguishable from the total vehicle volume. For ROS, the stronger association observed with HDV and gasoline vehicles when combined (total traffic count) compared to when considered individually may signal a role for the interaction of their emissions as a determinant of on-road ROS in this pilot study. If further validated, this should not be overlooked in studies of on- or near-road particle exposure and its potential health effects.

Volatile properties of CNG and Diesel bus emissions produced during steady state and transient driving modes

An analysis of the emissions from 14 CNG and 5 Diesel buses was conducted during April & May, 2006. Studies were conducted at both steady state and transient driving modes on a vehicle dynamometer utilising a CVS dilution system. This article will focus on the volatile properties of particles from 4 CNG and 4 Diesel vehicles from within this group with a priority given to the previously un-investigated CNG emissions produced at transient loads. Particle number concentration data was collected by three CPC’s (TSI 3022, 3010 & 3782WCPC) having D50 cut-offs set to 5nm, 10nm & 20nm respectively. Size distribution data was collected using a TSI 3080 SMPS with a 3025 CPC during the steady state driving modes. During transient cycles mono-disperse “slices” of between 5nm & 25nm were measured. The volatility of these particles was determined by placing a thermodenuder before the 3022 and the SMPS and measuring the reduction in particle number concentration as the temperature in the thermodenuder was increased. This was then normalised against the total particle count given by the 3010 CPC to provide high resolution information on the reduction in particle concentration with respect to temperature.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Interaction of erythrocyte eicosapentaenoic acid and physical activity predicts reduced risk of mild cognitive impairment

Objectives To evaluate relationships between self-reported physical activity, proportions of long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCn3) in erythrocyte content (percentage of total fatty acids) and risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in older adults. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted. Community-dwelling male and female (n = 84) participants over the age of 65 years with and without MCI were tested for erythrocyte proportions of the LCn3s eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Physical activity was measured using a validated questionnaire. Results The interaction between erythrocyte EPA, but not DHA, and increased physical activity was associated with increased odds of a non-MCI classification. Conclusion An interaction between physical activity and erythrocyte EPA content (percentage of fatty acids) significantly predicted MCI status in older adults. Randomised control trials are needed to examine the potential for supplementation with EPA in combination with increased physical activity to mitigate the risk of MCI in ageing adults.

Sequence variants in three loci influence monocyte counts and erythrocyte volume

Blood cells participate in vital physiological processes, and their numbers are tightly regulated so that homeostasis is maintained. Disruption of key regulatory mechanisms underlies many blood-related Mendelian diseases but also contributes to more common disorders, including atherosclerosis. We searched for quantitative trait loci (QTL) for hematology traits through a whole-genome association study, because these could provide new insights into both hemopoeitic and disease mechanisms. We tested 1.8 million variants for association with 13 hematology traits measured in 6015 individuals from the Australian and Dutch populations. These traits included hemoglobin composition, platelet counts, and red blood cell and white blood cell indices. We identified three regions of strong association that, to our knowledge, have not been previously reported in the literature. The first was located in an intergenic region of chromosome 9q31 near LPAR1, explaining 1.5% of the variation in monocyte counts (best SNP rs7023923, p=8.9x10(-14)). The second locus was located on chromosome 6p21 and associated with mean cell erythrocyte volume (rs12661667, p=1.2x10(-9), 0.7% variance explained) in a region that spanned five genes, including CCND3, a member of the D-cyclin gene family that is involved in hematopoietic stem cell expansion. The third region was also associated with erythrocyte volume and was located in an intergenic region on chromosome 6q24 (rs592423, p=5.3x10(-9), 0.6% variance explained). All three loci replicated in an independent panel of 1543 individuals (p values=0.001, 9.9x10(-5), and 7x10(-5), respectively). The identification of these QTL provides new opportunities for furthering our understanding of the mechanisms regulating hemopoietic cell fate.

The cost-effectiveness of routine follow-up after primary total hip arthroplasty

Routine postsurgery assessment of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) is recommended in many countries. Whether the benefits of this activity are justified by the costs is not known. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of 3 different follow-up strategies after primary THA. If there is no routine follow-up of patients for 7 years after primary THA, there would be cost savings between AU$6.5 and $11.9 million and gains of between 1.8 and 8.8 quality-adjusted life years. Policy makers should investigate less resource-intensive alternatives to common routine postsurgical assessment.

Development of a particle number and particle mass vehicle emissions inventory for an urban fleet

Motor vehicles are major emitters of gaseous and particulate pollution in urban areas, and exposure to particulate pollution can have serious health effects, ranging from respiratory and cardiovascular disease to mortality. Motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions span a broad size range from 0.003-10µm, and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, no comprehensive inventories currently exist in the international published literature covering this wide size range. This paper presents the first published comprehensive inventory of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted. The inventory was developed for urban South-East Queensland by combining two techniques from distinctly different disciplines, from aerosol science and transport modelling. A comprehensive set of particle emission factors were combined with traffic modelling, and tailpipe particle emissions were quantified for particle number (ultrafine particles), PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 for light and heavy duty vehicles and buses. A second aim of the paper involved using the data derived in this inventory for scenario analyses, to model the particle emission implications of different proportions of passengers travelling in light duty vehicles and buses in the study region, and to derive an estimate of fleet particle emissions in 2026. It was found that heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) in the study region were major emitters of particulate matter pollution, and although they contributed only around 6% of total regional vehicle kilometres travelled, they contributed more than 50% of the region’s particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions. With the freight task in the region predicted to double over the next 20 years, this suggests that HDVs need to be a major focus of mitigation efforts. HDVs dominated particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions; and LDV PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. Buses contributed approximately 1-2% of regional particle emissions.

Estimating total cross sections from neutron-nucleus collisions using a simple functional form

Total cross sections for neutron scattering from nuclei, with energies ranging from 10 to 600 MeV and from many nuclei spanning the mass range 6Li to 238U, have been analyzed using a simple, three-parameter, functional form. The calculated cross sections are compared with results obtained by using microscopic (g-folding) optical potentials as well as with experimental data. The functional form reproduces those total cross sections very well. When allowance is made for Ramsauer-like effects in the scattering, the parameters of the functional form required vary smoothly with energy and target mass. They too can be represented by functions of energy and mass.

Crowd Counting Using Multiple Local Features

In public venues, crowd size is a key indicator of crowd safety and stability. Crowding levels can be detected using holistic image features, however this requires a large amount of training data to capture the wide variations in crowd distribution. If a crowd counting algorithm is to be deployed across a large number of cameras, such a large and burdensome training requirement is far from ideal. In this paper we propose an approach that uses local features to count the number of people in each foreground blob segment, so that the total crowd estimate is the sum of the group sizes. This results in an approach that is scalable to crowd volumes not seen in the training data, and can be trained on a very small data set. As a local approach is used, the proposed algorithm can easily be used to estimate crowd density throughout different regions of the scene and be used in a multi-camera environment. A unique localised approach to ground truth annotation reduces the required training data is also presented, as a localised approach to crowd counting has different training requirements to a holistic one. Testing on a large pedestrian database compares the proposed technique to existing holistic techniques and demonstrates improved accuracy, and superior performance when test conditions are unseen in the training set, or a minimal training set is used.