Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Awards before and after the Nobel Prize : a Matthew effect and/or a ticket to one's own funeral?

The primary aim of this descriptive exploration of scientists’ life cycle award patterns is to evaluate whether awards breed further awards and identify researcher experiences after reception of the Nobel Prize. To achieve this goal, we collected data on the number of awards received each year for 50 years before and after Nobel Prize reception by all 1901–2000 Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, and medicine or physiology. Our results indicate an increasing rate of awards before Nobel reception, reaching the summit precisely in the year of the Nobel Prize. After this pinnacle year, awards drop sharply. This result is confirmed by separate analyses of three different disciplines and by a random-effects negative binomial regression model. Such an effect, however, does not emerge for more recent Nobel laureates (1971–2000). In addition, Nobelists in medicine or physiology generate more awards shortly before and after prize reception, whereas laureates in chemistry attract more awards as time progresses.

Dr. Matthew Rimmer takes a closer look at Fair Use

For this week's Favorites of the Week, Dr. Matthew Rimmer wanted to focus in on some of the specific points that came up in the Congressional hearing on fair use earlier this week. While a bit different than our usual "favorites of the week" post, it's a really fantastic in-depth look at some of the issues, which I'm sure many of you will enjoy.

In Situ Observation of the Thermal Decomposition of Weddelite by Heating Stage Environmental Scanning Electron Microscopy

The morphological and chemical changes occurring during the thermal decomposition of weddelite, CaC2O4·2H2O, have been followed in real time in a heating stage attached to an Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope operating at a pressure of 2 Torr, with a heating rate of 10 °C/min and an equilibration time of approximately 10 min. The dehydration step around 120 °C and the loss of CO around 425 °C do not involve changes in morphology, but changes in the composition were observed. The final reaction of CaCO3 to CaO while evolving CO2 around 600 °C involved the formation of chains of very small oxide particles pseudomorphic to the original oxalate crystals. The change in chemical composition could only be observed after cooling the sample to 350 °C because of the effects of thermal radiation.