Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Whole System Design : An Integrated Approach to Sustainable Engineering

Whole System Design is increasingly being seen as one of the most cost effective ways to both increase the productivity and reduce the negative environmental impacts of an engineered system. A focus on design is critical, as the output from this stage of the project locks-in most of the economic and environmental performance of the designed system throughout its life, which can span from a few years to many decades. Indeed, it is now widely acknowledged that all designers – particularly engineers, architects and industrial designers – need to be able to understand and implement a whole system design approach. This book provides a clear design methodology, based on leading efforts in the field, and is supported by worked examples that demonstrate how advances in energy, materials and water productivity can be achieved through applying an integrated approach to sustainable engineering. Chapters 1–5 outline the approach and explain how it can be implemented to enhance the established Systems Engineering framework. Chapters 6–10 demonstrate, through detailed worked examples, the application of the approach to industrial pumping systems, passenger vehicles, electronics and computer systems, temperature control of buildings, and domestic water systems.

Repair of calvarial defects with customized tissue-engineered bone grafts - I. Evaluation of osteogenesis in a three-dimensional culture system

Bone generation by autogenous cell transplantation in combination with a biodegradable scaffold is one of the most promising techniques being developed in craniofacial surgery. The objective of this combined in vitro and in vivo study was to evaluate the morphology and osteogenic differentiation of bone marrow derived mesenchymal progenitor cells and calvarial osteoblasts in a two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) culture environment (Part I of this study) and their potential in combination with a biodegradable scaffold to reconstruct critical-size calvarial defects in an autologous animal model [Part II of this study; see Schantz, J.T., et al. Tissue Eng. 2003;9(Suppl. 1):S-127-S-139; this issue]. New Zealand White rabbits were used to isolate osteoblasts from calvarial bone chips and bone marrow stromal cells from iliac crest bone marrow aspirates. Multilineage differentiation potential was evaluated in a 2-D culture setting. After amplification, the cells were seeded within a fibrin matrix into a 3-D polycaprolactone (PCL) scaffold system. The constructs were cultured for up to 3 weeks in vitro and assayed for cell attachment and proliferation using phase-contrast light, confocal laser, and scanning electron microscopy and the MTS cell metabolic assay. Osteogenic differentiation was analyzed by determining the expression of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and osteocalcin. The bone marrow-derived progenitor cells demonstrated the potential to be induced to the osteogenic, adipogenic, and chondrogenic pathways. In a 3-D environment, cell-seeded PCL scaffolds evaluated by confocal laser microscopy revealed continuous cell proliferation and homogeneous cell distribution within the PCL scaffolds. On osteogenic induction mesenchymal progenitor cells (12 U/L) produce significantly higher (p < 0.05) ALP activity than do osteoblasts (2 U/L); however, no significant differences were found in osteocalcin expression. In conclusion, this study showed that the combination of a mechanically stable synthetic framework (PCL scaffolds) and a biomimetic hydrogel (fibrin glue) provides a potential matrix for bone tissue-engineering applications. Comparison of osteogenic differentiation between the two mesenchymal cell sources revealed a similar pattern.

Gas boosted solar water heaters : Queensland case studies of installation practices in new homes

Because of the greenhouse gas emissions implications of the market dominating electric hot water systems, governments in Australia have implemented policies and programs to encourage the uptake of solar water heaters (SWHs) in the residential market as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The cost-benefit analysis that usually accompanies all government policy and program design could be simplistically reduced to the ratio of expected greenhouse gas reductions of SWH to the cost of a SWH. The national Register of Solar Water Heaters specifies how many renewable energy certificates (RECs) are allocated to complying SWHs according to their expected performance, and hence greenhouse gas reductions, in different climates. Neither REC allocations nor rebates are tied to actual performance of systems. This paper examines the performance of instantaneous gas-boosted solar water heaters installed in new residences in a housing estate in south-east Queensland in the period 2007 – 2010. The evidence indicates systemic failures in installation practices, resulting in zero solar performance or dramatic underperformance (estimated average 43% solar contribution). The paper will detail the faults identified, and how these faults were eventually diagnosed and corrected. The impacts of these system failures on end-use consumers are discussed before concluding with a brief overview of areas where further research is required in order to more fully understand whole of supply chain implications.

Advanced Computational Intelligence System for inverse aeronautical design optimisation

Abstract—Computational Intelligence Systems (CIS) is one of advanced softwares. CIS has been important position for solving single-objective / reverse / inverse and multi-objective design problems in engineering. The paper hybridise a CIS for optimisation with the concept of Nash-Equilibrium as an optimisation pre-conditioner to accelerate the optimisation process. The hybridised CIS (Hybrid Intelligence System) coupled to the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) tool and one type of Computer Aided Design(CAD) system; GiD is applied to solve an inverse engineering design problem; reconstruction of High Lift Systems (HLS). Numerical results obtained by the hybridised CIS are compared to the results obtained by the original CIS. The benefits of using the concept of Nash-Equilibrium are clearly demonstrated in terms of solution accuracy and optimisation efficiency.

Practical decision support system evaluation for consultant selection

The widespread development of Decision Support System (DSS) in construction indicate that the evaluation of software become more important than before. However, it is identified that most research in construction discipline did not attempt to assess its usability. Therefore, little is known about the approach on how to properly evaluate a DSS for specific problem. In this paper, we present a practical framework that can be guidance for DSS evaluation. It focuses on how to evaluate software that is dedicatedly designed for consultant selection problem. The framework features two main components i.e. Sub-system Validation and Face Validation. Two case studies of consultant selection at Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage were integrated in this framework. Some inter-disciplinary area such as Software Engineering, Human Computer Interaction (HCI) and Construction Project Management underpinned the discussion of the paper. It is anticipated that this work can foster better DSS development and quality decision making that accurately meet the client’s expectation and needs

The structured and practical approach in development of decision support system for consultant selection in public sector infrastructure project

Nowadays, most of the infrastructure development projects undertaken are complex in nature. Practically, public clients who do not have a good understanding of the design and management may suffer severe losses, especially for infrastructure projects. There is a need for luring the right consultant to secure client's investment in infrastructure developments. Throughout the project life cycle, consultants play vital role from the inception to completion stage of a project. A few studies in Malaysia show that infrastructure projects involving irrigation and drainage have experience problems such as poor workmanship, delay and cost overrun due to the consultant's inability or the client incompetence of recruiting consultants in time. This highlights the need of aided decision making and an efficient system to select the best consultant by using Decision Support System (DSS). On the other hand, recent trends reveal that most DSS in construction only concentrate on decision model development. These models are impractical and unused as they are complicated or difficult for laymen such as project managers to utilize. Thus, this research attempts to develop an efficient DSS for consultant selection namely consultDeSS. Driven by the motivation and research aims, this study deployed Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) dominant with a combination of case studies at the Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID). Two real projects involving irrigation and drainage infrastructure were used to design, implement and evaluate the artefact. The 3-tier consultDeSS was revised after the evaluation and the design was significantly improved based on user feedback. By developing desirable tools that fit client's needs will enhance the productivity and minimize conflict within groups and organisations. The tool is more usable and efficient compared to previous studies in construction. Thus, this research has demonstrated a purposeful artefact with a practical and valid structured development approach that is applicable in a variety of problems in construction discipline.

Inter-organisational characteristics of resilience in a post-disaster recovery context

During post-disaster recovery, an infrastructure system may be subject to a number of disturbances originating from several other interdependent infrastructures. These disturbances might result in a series of system failures, thereby having immediate impact on societal living conditions. The inability to detect signs of disturbance from one infrastructure during recovery might cause significant disruptive effects on other infrastructure via the interconnection that exist among them. In such circumstances, it clearly appears that critical infrastructures' interdependencies affect the recovery of each individual infrastructure, as well as those of other interdependent infrastructure systems. This is why infrastructure resilience needs to be improved in function of those interdependencies, particularly during the recovery period to avoid the occurrence of a ‘disaster of disaster’ scenario. Viewed from this perspective, resilience is achieved through an inter-organisational collaboration between the different organisations involved in the reconstruction of interdependent infrastructure systems. This paper suggests that to some extent, the existing degree of interconnectedness between these infrastructure systems can also be found in their resilience ability during post-disaster recovery. For instance, without a resilient energy system, a large-scale power outage could affect simultaneously all the interdependent infrastructures after a disaster. Thus, breaking down the silos of resilience would be the first step in minimizing the risks of disaster failures from one infrastructure to cascade or escalate to other interconnected systems.

Do health inquiries lead to health system change? What have we learnt from recent health inquiries and will the same mistakes happen again?

Since 2001 there have been numerous Commissions of Inquiry into health system failures across the world. While the Inquiries were established to examine poor patient outcomes, each has identified a range of leadership and management shortcomings that have contributed to a poor standard of patient care. While there is an acknowledgement that different heath systems have different contexts, this paper highlights a number of themes that are common across Inquiries. It will discuss a number of common system failures in Inquiries spanning from 2001 to 2013 and pose questions as to why these types of failures are likely to re-occur, as well as possible learnings for health service management and leadership to address a number of these common themes.

Exploring antecedent factors in (Queensland) secondary school teachers’ early retirement intentions

Mature-age secondary teachers offer teaching a wealth of knowledge and skills that can contribute greatly to the quality of education. However, as with the greater workforce, there is an increasing trend for mature-age teachers to elect to retire early or to move into other work. Despite studies suggesting that teachers may be negatively affected by stress, there has been no research into the attitudes of mature-age teachers relating to early retirement and whether these or other factors are instrumental in their decision to retire from teaching. There is, however, a broad range of studies, commentary and analyses on ageing and work that can be utilised to develop a powerful analytical framework to identify the factors that can potentially influence the decision to take early retirement. This study examined the antecedent factors which influenced the early retirement decisions in 16 Queensland secondary school teachers. This study examined factors relating to the teachers decision to retire early and explored school and other factors relating to their decision. In addition, differences between urban and rural secondary school teachers were examined. Given the potentially complex nature of teachers. retirement decisions, the study utilised a qualitative approach. The study found that retired secondary teachers are confronted by ageing realities that are not responded to adequately by the education system, and participants expressed a general dissatisfaction with aspects of school management, especially as it related to bullying and non-inclusion in teaching-related decision making. This study also identified organisational issues within Education Queensland which contributed to system failures that affected mature-age teachers that need to be addressed. This study is one of the first studies to explore the factors influencing early retirement decisions in teachers. The implications of these factors on policy for Education Queensland and for workplace policies in general are discussed.

The nature of errors made by drivers [Austroads Publication no: AP-R378-11]

It is important that we understand the factors and conditions that shape driver behaviour – those conditions within the road transport system that contribute to driver error and the situations where driver non-compliance to road regulations is likely. This report presents the findings derived from a program of research investigating the nature of errors made by drivers, involving a literature review and an on-road study. The review indicates that, despite significant investigation, the role of different error types in road traffic crashes remains unclear, as does the role of the wider road transport system failures in driver error causation.