Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Monitoring the Performance of Complex Projects from Multiple Perspectives over Multiple Time Frames

When complex projects go wrong they can go horribly wrong with severe financial consequences. We are undertaking research to develop leading performance indicators for complex projects, metrics to provide early warning of potential difficulties. The assessment of success of complex projects can be made by a range of stakeholders over different time scales, against different levels of project results: the project’s outputs at the end of the project; the project’s outcomes in the months following project completion; and the project’s impact in the years following completion. We aim to identify leading performance indicators, which may include both success criteria and success factors, and which can be measured by the project team during project delivery to forecast success as assessed by key stakeholders in the days, months and years following the project. The hope is the leading performance indicators will act as alarm bells to show if a project is diverting from plan so early corrective action can be taken. It may be that different combinations of the leading performance indicators will be appropriate depending on the nature of project complexity. In this paper we develop a new model of project success, whereby success is assessed by different stakeholders over different time frames against different levels of project results. We then relate this to measurements that can be taken during project delivery. A methodology is described to evaluate the early parts of this model. Its implications and limitations are described. This paper describes work in progress.

Philanthropy for Indigenous causes : more than a 'cup of tea'?

In the face of improved First Nation outcomes in many western nations, Australia is still dealing with a seemingly intractable gap between the quality of life of its Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and the non-Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Philanthropy in Australia provides a smaller proportion of funding for community projects than is the case in other countries and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander causes have been significantly under - represented as recipients. This paper reports on a qualitative study aimed at understanding the issues affecting the decisions and actions of grantmaking organisations and individuals who wish to support Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander causes in the current Australian context. The aims were to build on the limited research in this arena, add to the future research agenda and contribute to practice and policy insights for Australia and beyond. The study found that while government funding programs are perceived as output driven, inflexible and dogmatic - ‘a cup of tea mob’- participants see the Australian philanthropic sector as capable of addressing the complex Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander ‘problem’ with more innovative and independent thinking. From the point of view of contextual impacts, success criteria, barriers, structural imposts and emotional involvement, the practical experience in grantmaking for Indigenous causes of participants in this study reflects that found elsewhere. However the focus of many grantmakers on organisational rather than community capacity and the potentially elitist emphasis on established relationships continues to hamper Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander access to philanthropic funding in Australia. Further, if the strategic changes currently visible in the sector are unsupported by a depth of policy and a proactive transfer and distribution of skill and knowledge they may be unsustainable.

Realisation of cost-informed process support within the YAWL workflow environment

Organisations are always focussed on ensuring that their business operations are performed in the most cost-effective manner, and that processes are responsive to ever-changing cost pressures. In many organisations, however, strategic cost-based decisions at the managerial level are not directly or quickly translatable to process-level operational support. A primary reason for this disconnect is the limited system-based support for cost-informed decisions at the process-operational level in real time. In this paper, we describe the different ways in which a workflow management system can support process-related decisions, guided by cost-informed considerations at the operational level, during execution. As a result, cost information is elevated from its non-functional attribute role to a first-class, fully functional process perspective. The paper defines success criteria that a WfMS should meet to provide such support, and discusses a reference implementation within the YAWL workflow environment that demonstrates how the various types of cost-informed decision rules are supported, using an illustrative example.

Key performance indicators for measuring construction success

The construction industry is dynamic in nature. The concept of project success has remained ambiguously defined in the construction industry. Project success is almost the ultimate goal for every project. However, it means different things to different people. While some writers consider time, cost and quality as predominant criteria, others suggest that success is something more complex. The aim of this paper is to develop a framework for measuring success of construction projects. In this paper, a set of key performance indicators (KPIs), measured both objectively and subjectively are developed through a comprehensive literature review. The validity of the proposed KPIs is also tested by three case studies. Then, the limitations of the suggested KPIs are discussed. With the development of KPIs, a benchmark for measuring the performance of a construction project can be set. It also provides significant insights into developing a general and comprehensive base for further research.

Using information criteria to select the correct variance–covariance structure for longitudinal data in ecology

1. Ecological data sets often use clustered measurements or use repeated sampling in a longitudinal design. Choosing the correct covariance structure is an important step in the analysis of such data, as the covariance describes the degree of similarity among the repeated observations. 2. Three methods for choosing the covariance are: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the quasi-information criterion (QIC), and the deviance information criterion (DIC). We compared the methods using a simulation study and using a data set that explored effects of forest fragmentation on avian species richness over 15 years. 3. The overall success was 80.6% for the AIC, 29.4% for the QIC and 81.6% for the DIC. For the forest fragmentation study the AIC and DIC selected the unstructured covariance, whereas the QIC selected the simpler autoregressive covariance. Graphical diagnostics suggested that the unstructured covariance was probably correct. 4. We recommend using DIC for selecting the correct covariance structure.

Analysis of selection criteria for design-builders through the analysis of Request for Proposals (RFPs)

Selecting an appropriate design-builder is critical to the success of DB projects. The objective of this study is to identify selection criteria for design-builders and compare their relative importance by means of a robust content analysis of 94 Request For Proposals (RFPs) for public DB projects. These DB projects had an aggregate contract value of over US$3.5 billion and were advertised between 2000 and 2010. This study summarized twenty-six selection criteria and classified into ten categories, i.e.: price, experience, technical approach, management approach, qualification, schedule, past performance, financial capability, responsiveness to the RFP, and legal status in descending order of their relative importance. The results showed that even though price still remains as the most important selection category, its relative importance declines significantly in the last decade. The categories of qualification, experience, past performance, by contrast, have been becoming more important to DB owners for selecting design-builders. Finally, it is found that the importance weighting of price in large projects is significantly higher than that in small projects. This study provides a useful reference for owners in selecting their preferred design-builders.

Selection criteria in the search for a sperm donor: Behavioural traits versus physical appearance

Despite extensive literature on female mate choice, empirical evidence on women’s mating preferences in the search for a sperm donor is scarce, even though this search, by isolating a male’s genetic impact on offspring from other factors like paternal investment, offers a naturally ”controlled” research setting. In this paper, we work to fill this void by examining the rapidly growing online sperm donor market, which is raising new challenges by offering women novel ways to seek out donor sperm. We not only identify individual factors that influence women’s mating preferences but find strong support for the proposition that behavioural traits (inner values) are more important in these choices than physical appearance (exterior values). We also report evidence that physical factors matter more than resources or other external cues of material success, perhaps because the relevance of good character in donor selection is part of a female psychological adaptation throughout evolutionary history. The lack of evidence on a preference for material resources, on the other hand, may indicate the ability of peer socialization and better access to resources to rapidly shape the female decision process. Overall, the paper makes useful contributions to both the literature on human behaviour and that on decision-making in extreme and highly important situations.

Establishing the next generation at work: Leader generativity as a moderator of the relationships between leader age, leader-member exchange, and leadership success

In this study, the authors investigated leader generativity as a moderator of the relationships between leader age, leader-member exchange, and three criteria of leadership success (follower perceptions of leader effectiveness, follower satisfaction with leader, and follower extra effort). Data came from 128 university professors paired with one research assistant each. Results showed positive relationships between leader age and leader generativity, and negative relationships between leader age and follower perceptions of leader effectiveness and follower extra effort. Consistent with expectations based on leadership categorization theory, leader generativity moderated the relationships between leader age and all three criteria of leadership success, such that leaders high in generativity were better able to maintain high levels of leadership success at higher ages than leaders low in generativity. Finally, results of mediated moderation analyses showed that leader-member exchange quality mediated these moderating effects. The findings suggest that, in combination, leader age and the age-related construct of generativity importantly influence leadership processes and outcomes. © 2011 American Psychological Association.

Linking Theory and Practice: Performing a Reality Check on a Model of IS Success

The issue of ‘rigour vs. relevance’ in IS research has generated an intense, heated debate for over a decade. It is possible to identify, however, only a limited number of contributions on how to increase the relevance of IS research without compromising its rigour. Based on a lifecycle view of IS research, we propose the notion of ‘reality checks’ in order to review IS research outcomes in the light of actual industry demands. We assume that five barriers impact the efficient transfer of IS research outcomes; they are lack of awareness, lack of understandability, lack of relevance, lack of timeliness, and lack of applicability. In seeking to understand the effect of these barriers on the transfer of mature IS research into practice, we used focus groups. We chose DeLone and McLean’s IS success model as our stimulus because it is one of the more widely researched areas of IS.