Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Preparing for coastal change

Coastal areas are dynamic environments that are home to billions of people worldwide and provide areas of unique natural importance. As such, coastal change is of considerable local and global interest, not only within the geological realm, but also in terms of socioeconomic and biodiversity impacts. An accurate understanding of how changes in relative sea level, geological processes and extreme events, such as storms and tsunamis, have interacted to shape and change the Earth’s coastlines over millennia is fundamental to future projections of coastal change. On the basis of this, researchers in these, and various other aspects of coastal change were brought together in late 2010 at the University of Hong Kong for the first meeting of International Geoscience Program Project 588 (IGCP588) e Preparing for Coastal Change. This special issue showcases some of the results presented at this meeting.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of a flat plate photocatalytic reactor for storm and wastewater reuse

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis has been performed for a flat plate photocatalytic reactor using CFD code FLUENT. Under the simulated conditions (Reynolds number, Re around 2650), a detailed time accurate computation shows the different stages of flow evolution and the effects of finite length of the reactor in creating flow instability, which is important to improve the performance of the reactor for storm and wastewater reuse. The efficiency of a photocatalytic reactor for pollutant decontamination depends on reactor hydrodynamics and configurations. This study aims to investigate the role of different parameters on the optimization of the reactor design for its improved performance. In this regard, more modelling and experimental efforts are ongoing to better understand the interplay of the parameters that influence the performance of the flat plate photocatalytic reactor.

Sustainable reuse of storm/waste-water resources : a review on solar photocatalytic purification processes

In recent years, there has been a significant amount of research and development in the area of solar photocatalysis. This paper reviews and summarizes the mechanism of photocatalytic oxidation process, types of photocatalyst, and the factors influencing the photoreactor efficiency and the most recent findings related to solar detoxification and disinfection of water contaminants. Various solar reactors for photocatlytic water purification are also briefly described. The future potential of solar photocatlysis for storm water treatment and reuse is also discussed to ensure sustainable use of solar energy and storm water resources.

Recent developments in photocatalytic degradation of pesticides and phenols in storm and wastewater effluent

The heterogeneous photocatalytic oxidation process offers a versatile promise in the detoxification and disinfection of wastewater containing hazardous organic compounds such as pesticides and phenolic compounds in storm and wastewater effluent. This process has gained wide attention due to its effectiveness in degrading and mineralizing the organic compounds into harmless and often useful components. To develop an efficient photocatalytic process, titanium dioxide has been actively studied in recent years due to its excellent performance as a photocatalyst under UV light irradiation. This paper aims at critically evaluating and highlighting the recent developments of the heterogeneous photocatalytic systems with a special focus on storm and wastewater treatment applications.

Characteristics of airborne ultrafine and coarse particles during the Australian dust storm of 23 September 2009

Particle number concentrations and size distributions, visibility and particulate mass concentrations and weather parameters were monitored in Brisbane, Australia, on 23 September 2009, during the passage of a dust storm that originated 1400 km away in the dry continental interior. The dust concentration peaked at about mid-day when the hourly average PM2.5 and PM10 values reached 814 and 6460 µg m-3, respectively, with a sharp drop in atmospheric visibility. A linear regression analysis showed a good correlation between the coefficient of light scattering by particles (Bsp) and both PM10 and PM2.5. The particle number in the size range 0.5-20 µm exhibited a lognormal size distribution with modal and geometrical mean diameters of 1.6 and 1.9 µm, respectively. The modal mass was around 10 µm with less than 10% of the mass carried by particles smaller than 2.5 µm. The PM10 fraction accounted for about 68% of the total mass. By mid-day, as the dust began to increase sharply, the ultrafine particle number concentration fell from about 6x103 cm-3 to 3x103 cm-3 and then continued to decrease to less than 1x103 cm-3 by 14h, showing a power-law decrease with Bsp with an R2 value of 0.77 (p<0.01). Ultrafine particle size distributions also showed a significant decrease in number during the dust storm. This is the first scientific study of particle size distributions in an Australian dust storm.

The effects of the 2009 dust storm on emergency admissions to a hospital in Brisbane, Australia

In September 2009 an enormous dust storm swept across eastern Australia. Dust is potentially hazardous to health as it interferes with breathing, and previous dust storms have been linked to increased risks of asthma and even death. We examined whether the 2009 Australian dust storm changed the volume or characteristics of emergency admissions to hospital. We used an observational study design, using time series analyses to examine changes in the number of admissions, and case-only analyses to examine changes in the characteristics of admissions. The admission data were from the Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, between 1 January 2009 and 31 October 2009. There was a 39% increase in emergency admissions associated with the storm (95% confidence interval: 5, 81%), which lasted for just one day. The health effects of the storm could not be detected using particulate matter levels. We found no significant change in the characteristics of admissions during the storm, specifically there was no increase in respiratory admissions. The dust storm had a short-lived impact on emergency hospital admissions. This may be because the public took effective avoidance measures, or because the dust was simply not toxic, being mainly composed of soil. Emergency departments should be prepared for a short-term increase in admissions during dust storms.

Multifractal analysis of geomagnetic storm and solar flare indices and their class dependence

The multifractal properties of two indices of geomagnetic activity, D st (representative of low latitudes) and a p (representative of the global geomagnetic activity), with the solar X-ray brightness, X l , during the period from 1 March 1995 to 17 June 2003 are examined using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The h(q) curves of D st and a p in the MF-DFA are similar to each other, but they are different from that of X l , indicating that the scaling properties of X l are different from those of D st and a p . Hence, one should not predict the magnitude of magnetic storms directly from solar X-ray observations. However, a strong relationship exists between the classes of the solar X-ray irradiance (the classes being chosen to separate solar flares of class X-M, class C, and class B or less, including no flares) in hourly measurements and the geomagnetic disturbances (large to moderate, small, or quiet) seen in D st and a p during the active period. Each time series was converted into a symbolic sequence using three classes. The frequency, yielding the measure representations, of the substrings in the symbolic sequences then characterizes the pattern of space weather events. Using the MF-DFA method and traditional multifractal analysis, we calculate the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations. The τ (q) curves indicate that the measure representations of these three indices are multifractal. On the basis of this three-class clustering, we find that the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations of these three indices are similar to each other for positive values of q. Hence, a positive flare storm class dependence is reflected in the scaling exponents h(q) in the MF-DFA and the multifractal exponents D(q) and τ (q). This finding indicates that the use of the solar flare classes could improve the prediction of the D st classes.

Recipe for success : cooking up a storm in the technology classroom

Ingredients: - 1 cup Vision - 100ml ‘Real World’ Application - 100ml Unit Structure/Organisation - 100ml Student-centric Approach [optional: Add Social Media/Popular Culture for extra goodness] - Large Dollop of Passion + Enthusiasm - Sprinkle of Approachability Mix all ingredients well. Cover and leave to rise in a Lecture Theatre for 1.5 hours. Cook in a Classroom for 1.5 hours. Garnish with a dash of Humour before serving. Serves 170 Students

Characterisation of atmospheric deposited particles during a dust storm in urban areas of Eastern Australia

The characteristics of dust particles deposited during the 2009 dust storm in the Gold Coast and Brisbane regions of Australia are discussed in this paper. The study outcomes provide important knowledge in relation to the potential impacts of dust storm related pollution on ecosystem health in the context that the frequency of dust storms is predicted to increase due to anthropogenic desert surface modifications and climate change impacts. The investigated dust storm contributed a large fraction of fine particles to the environment with an increased amount of total suspended solids, compared to dry deposition under ambient conditions. Although the dust storm passed over forested areas, the organic carbon content in the dust was relatively low. The primary metals present in the dust storm deposition were aluminium, iron and manganese, which are common soil minerals in Australia. The dust storm deposition did not contain significant loads of nickel, cadmium, copper and lead, which are commonly present in the urban environment. Furthermore, the comparison between the ambient and dust storm chromium and zinc loads suggested that these metals were contributed to the dust storm by local anthropogenic sources. The potential ecosystem health impacts of the 2009 dust storm include, increased fine solids deposition on ground surfaces resulting in an enhanced capacity to adsorb toxic pollutants as well as increased aluminium, iron and manganese loads. In contrast, the ecosystem health impacts related to organic carbon and other metals from dust storm atmospheric deposition are not considered to be significant.

Forrest v ASIC : a ‘perfect storm’

The policy objectives of the continuous disclosure regime augmented by the misleading or deceptive conduct provisions in the Corporations Act are to enhance the integrity and efficiency of Australian capital markets by ensuring equality of opportunity for all investors through public access to accurate and material company information to enable them to make well-informed investment decisions. This article argues that there were failures by the regulators in the performance of their roles to protect the interests of investors in Forrest v ASIC; FMG v ASIC (2012) 247 CLR 486: ASX failed to enforce timely compliance with the continuous disclosure regime and ensure that the market was properly informed by seeking immediate clarification from FMG as to the agreed fixed price and/or seeking production of a copy of the CREC agreement; and ASIC failed to succeed in the High Court because of the way it pleaded its case. The article also examines the reasoning of the High Court in Forrest v ASIC and whether it might have changed previous understandings of the Campomar test for determining whether representations directed to the public generally are misleading.