Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Entertainment architecture : constructing a framework for the creation of an emerging transmedia form

This thesis investigates the radically uncertain formal, business, and industrial environment of current entertainment creators. It researches how a novel communication technology, the Internet, leads to novel entertainment forms, how these lead to novel kinds of businesses that lead to novel industries; and in what way established entertainment forms, businesses, and industries are part of that process. This last aspect is addressed by focusing on one exemplary es-tablished form: movies. Using a transdisciplinary approach and a combination of historical analysis, industry interviews, and an innovative mode of ‘immersive’ textual analysis, a coherent and comprehensive conceptual framework for the creation of and re-search into a specific emerging entertainment form is proposed. That form, products based on it, and the conceptual framework describing it are all re-ferred to as Entertainment Architecture (‘entarch,’ for short). The thesis charac-terises this novel form as Internet-native transmedia entertainment, meaning it fully utilises the unique communicative characteristics of the Internet, and is spread across media. The thesis isolates four constitutive elements within Entertainment Architec-ture: story, play, ‘dance,’ and ‘glue.’ That is, entarch tells a story; offers playful interaction; invites social interaction between producer and consumer, and amongst consumers (‘dance’); and all components of it can be spread across many media, but are so well interconnected and mutually dependent that they are perceived as one product instead of many (‘glue’). This sets entarch apart from current media franchises like Star Wars or Halo, which are perceived as many products spread across many media. Entarch thus embraces the commu-nicative behaviour of Internet-native consumers instead of forcing them to de-sist from it, it harnesses the strengths of various media while avoiding some of their weaknesses, and it can sustain viable businesses. The entarch framework is an innovative contribution to scholarship that al-lows researchers to investigate this emerging entertainment form in a structured way. The thesis demonstrates this by using it to survey business models appro-priate to the entarch environment. The framework can also be used by enter-tainment creators — exemplified in the thesis by moviemakers — to delimit the room for manoeuvre available to them in a changing environment.

Entertainment architecture : constructing a framework for the creation of an emerging transmedia form

The topic of this research is a novel entertainment form currently emerging from the youngest human communication technology, the Internet. This form, products based on it, and the conceptual framework describing it are all referred to as Entertainment Architecture (‘entarch,’ for short). Entarch is classified as Internet-native transmedia entertainment — it fully utilises the unique communicative characteristics of the Internet and is not based on just one medium. A number of entarch examples are explored through ‘immersive’ textual analysis — a new mode of textual analysis required for research into this kind of entertainment. As a secondary priority, entarch is related to the movie — which is chosen as an exemplary existing entertainment form finding itself in a radically uncertain formal, business, and industrial environment, and accordingly is struggling financially. Throughout, formal, business, and industrial consequences of the emergence of Entertainment Architecture are explored. This research is an example of applied cultural science, as it treats culture as a source of innovation and a complex dynamic system with technological as well as human characteristics. It analyses the dynamics of cultural change in the context of business development, consumer experience, and economic evolution — with an intrinsically transdisciplinary methodology.

Re-framing fashion : from original and copy to adaptation

Partington notes that clothing produced by individual consumers through adaptation of patterns is contextualised as a watered down version of original couture. In its most reductive form, this notion characterises fashion as commercial and exploitative. Descriptors such as appropriation, imitation, copy and so forth have restricted the opportunity to understand fashion as a major global cultural form and institution. Therefore exploring and understanding the concept of adaptation will shift the attention from a superficial assessment of original versus imitation or copy to adaptation as a practice that provides a better framework for the understanding of designers’ and couturiers’ innovative practices and creativity, describing also the active engagement of consumers with fashion at the micro level. Adaptation can also provide a way to understand different historical shifts in the fashion system, from individual creative agency with home dressmaking and re-making to the explosion of the mass market and the consequent abandonment of such practices. Home dressmaking has been replaced by fashion remix of mass produced garments, a practice that thrives in our environment of globalised fast fashion. Thus this chapter suggests the need for a contextual requalification of concepts such as original, copy, imitation and copyright, and argues that these categories have been played against each other, but they are in fact interdependent. Today, big labels and conglomerates try to control knowledge and innovation through copyright, but, fashion escapes copyright because, in fashion, creativity is contextual. The institutionalisation of couture from 1868 served as a way to control knowledge about production processes in fashion; on the other hand, adaptation practices, often subversive, have been fundamental to the democratisation of fashion.

Conflicts over protection of marine living resources : the ‘Volga Case’ revisited

Non-traditional maritime security concerns have become more importantthan ever in the post-Cold War era. Naval forces of most developedcountries are more concerned about these threats than conventional war.One of the main maritime security issues for many countries in the world isillegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing in the marine area. Withthese burgeoning issues comes the potential for a large number of disputesinvolving international law. In early 2002, a long-line fishing vessel under aRussian flag –the Volga, was detained by Australian authorities a few hundred meters outside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Australia’s Heard and McDonald Islands in the Southern Ocean. The vessel was reportedly engaged in illegal fishing. This incident gave birth to litigation in international and Australian courts. Apart from these cases, Russia also announced separate litigation against Australia for violation of Articles 111and 87 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (NCLOS).Considering the outcome of these cases, this article critically examines thecharacteristics of litigation as a strategy for pacific settlement of disputesover marine living resources. Using the Volga Case as an example, thisarticle explores some issues related to the judicial settlement of disputes over marine living resources. This article demonstrates that the legal certainty of winning a case may not be the only factor influencing the strategy for settlement of an international dispute.

Sex-based comparisons of myofibrillar protein synthesis after resistance exercise in the fed state

Sex-based comparisons of myofibrillar protein synthesis after resistance exercise in the fed state. J Appl Physiol 112: 1805-1813, 2012. First published March 1, 2012; doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.00170.2012.- We made sex-based comparisons of rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) and anabolic signaling after a single bout of high-intensity resistance exercise. Eight men (20 ± 10 yr, BMI = 24.3 ± 2.4) and eight women (22 ± 1.8 yr, BMI = 23.0 ± 1.9) underwent primed constant infusions of L-[ring-13C6]phenylalanine on consecutive days with serial muscle biopsies. Biopsies were taken from the vastus lateralis at rest and 1, 3, 5, 24, 26, and 28 h after exercise. Twenty-five grams of whey protein was ingested immediately and 26 h after exercise. We also measured exercise-induced serum testosterone because it is purported to contribute to increases in myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) postexercise and its absence has been hypothesized to attenuate adaptative responses to resistance exercise in women. The exercise-induced area under the testosterone curve was 45-fold greater in men than women in the early (1 h) recovery period following exercise (P < 0.001). MPS was elevated similarly in men and women (2.3- and 2.7-fold, respectively) 1-5 h postexercise and after protein ingestion following 24 h recovery. Phosphorylation of mTORSer2448 was elevated to a greater extent in men than women acutely after exercise (P = 0.003), whereas increased phosphorylation of p70S6K1Thr389 was not different between sexes. Androgen receptor content was greater in men (main effect for sex, P = 0.049). Atrogin-1 mRNA abundance was decreased after 5 h recovery in both men and women (P < 0.001), and MuRF-1 expression was elevated in men after protein ingestion following 24 h recovery (P = 0.003). These results demonstrate minor sex-based differences in signaling responses and no difference in the MPS response to resistance exercise in the fed state. Interestingly, our data demonstrate that exerciseinduced increases in MPS are dissociated from postexercise testosteronemia and that stimulation of MPS occurs effectively with low systemic testosterone concentrations in women.

The role of prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase signaling in the development and progression of cancer

Prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase signaling via arachidonic acid metabolism affects a number of tumor cell survival pathways such as cell proliferation, apoptosis, tumor cell invasion and metastasis, and angiogenesis. However, the effects of these respective synthases differ considerably with respect to the pathways described. While prostacyclin synthase is generally believed to be anti-tumor, a pro-carcinogenic role for thromboxane synthase has been demonstrated in a variety of cancers. The balance of oppositely-acting COX-derived prostanoids influences many processes throughout the body, such as blood pressure regulation, clotting, and inflammation. The PGI2/TXA2 ratio is of particular interest in-vivo, with the corresponding synthases shown to be differentially regulated in a variety of disease states. Pharmacological inhibition of thromboxane synthase has been shown to significantly inhibit tumor cell growth, invasion, metastasis and angiogenesis in a range of experimental models. In direct contrast, prostacyclin synthase overexpression has been shown to be chemopreventive in a murine model of the disease, suggesting that the expression and activity of this enzyme may protect against tumor development. In this review, we discuss the aberrant expression and known functions of both prostacyclin synthase and thromboxane synthase in cancer. We discuss the effects of these enzymes on a range of tumor cell survival pathways, such as tumor cell proliferation, induction of apoptosis, invasion and metastasis, and tumor cell angiogenesis. As downstream signaling pathways of these enzymes have also been implicated in cancer states, we examine the role of downstream effectors of PGIS and TXS activity in tumor growth and progression. Finally, we discuss current therapeutic strategies aimed at targeting these enzymes for the prevention/treatment of cancer. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reply to comment on 'Bi nanolines on Si(001): Registry with the substrate'

The registry of bismuth dimers, integral components of the bismuth nanoline on Si(001), is examined. In contrast to the currently accepted view, the bismuth dimers are found to be in registry with the two-dimensional lattice created by the silicon dimers. The consequences of this finding are briefly explored.

The genetic associations of acute anterior uveitis and their overlap with the genetics of ankylosing spondylitis

Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) involves inflammation of the iris and ciliary body of the eye. It occurs both in isolation and as a complication of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). It is strongly associated with HLA-B*27, but previous studies have suggested that further genetic factors may confer additional risk. We sought to investigate this using the Illumina Exomechip microarray, to compare 1504 cases with AS and AAU, 1805 with AS but no AAU and 21 133 healthy controls. We also used a heterogeneity test to test the differences in effect size between AS with AAU and AS without AAU. In the analysis comparing AS+AAU+ cases versus controls, HLA-B*27 and HLA-A*02:01 were significantly associated with the presence of AAU (P<10−300 and P=6 × 10−8, respectively). Secondary independent association with PSORS1C3 (P=4.7 × 10−5) and TAP2 (P=1.1 × 10−5) were observed in the major histocompatibility complex. There was a new suggestive association with a low-frequency variant at zinc-finger protein 154 in the AS without AAU versus control analysis (zinc-finger protein 154 (ZNF154), P=2.2 × 10−6). Heterogeneity testing showed that rs30187 in ERAP1 has a larger effect on AAU compared with that in AS alone. These findings also suggest that variants in ERAP1 have a differential impact on the risk of AAU when compared with AS, and hence the genetic risk for AAU differs from AS.