Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.

Life-history constraints in grassland plant species : a growth-defence trade-off is the norm

Plant growth can be limited by resource acquisition and defence against consumers, leading to contrasting trade-off possibilities. The competition-defence hypothesis posits a trade-off between competitive ability and defence against enemies (e.g. herbivores and pathogens). The growth-defence hypothesis suggests that strong competitors for nutrients are also defended against enemies, at a cost to growth rate. We tested these hypotheses using observations of 706 plant populations of over 500 species before and following identical fertilisation and fencing treatments at 39 grassland sites worldwide. Strong positive covariance in species responses to both treatments provided support for a growth-defence trade-off: populations that increased with the removal of nutrient limitation (poor competitors) also increased following removal of consumers. This result held globally across 4 years within plant life-history groups and within the majority of individual sites. Thus, a growth-defence trade-off appears to be the norm, and mechanisms maintaining grassland biodiversity may operate within this constraint.

Endangerment and Likeability of Wildlife Species: How Important are they for Payments Proposed for Conservation?

This paper examines empirically the relative influence of the degree of endangerment of wildlife species and their stated likeability on individuals' allocation of funds for their conservation. To do this, it utilises data obtained from the IUCN Red List, and likeability and fund allocation data obtained from two serial surveys of a sample of the Australian public who were requested to assess 24 Australian wildlife species from three animal classes: mammals, birds and reptiles. Between the first and second survey, respondents were provided with extra information about the focal species. This information resulted in the dominance of endangerment as the major influence on the allocation of funding of respondents for the conservation of the focal wildlife species. Our results throw doubts on the proposition in the literature that the likeability of species is the dominant influence on willingness to pay for conservation of wildlife species. Furthermore, because the public's allocation of fund for conserving wildlife species seems to be more sensitive to information about the conservation status of species than to factors influencing their likeability, greater attention to providing accurate information about the former than the latter seems justified. Keywords: Conservation of wildlife species; Contingent valuation; Endangerment of species; Likeability of species; Willingness to pay

Common And Endangered Species: How Does Society Allocate Support For Their Conservation

Examines how society allocates support for species’ conservation when numbers involved are large and resources are limited. Rational behaviour suggests that species in urgent need of conservation will receive more support than those species that are common. However, we demonstrate that in the absence of balanced knowledge common species will receive support more than they would otherwise receive despite society placing high existence values on all species. Twenty four species, both common and endangered and some with a restricted distribution, are examined. We demonstrate that balanced information is vital in order to direct more support for species that are endangered than those that are not. Implications for conservation stemming from the findings are discussed.

Electronic states of trans-polyacetylene, poly(p-phenylene vinylene) and sp-hybridised carbon species in amorphous hydrogenated carbon probed by resonant Raman scattering

Inclusions of sp-hybridised, trans-polyacetylene [trans-(CH)x] and poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV) chains are revealed using resonant Raman scattering (RRS) investigation of amorphous hydrogenated carbon (a-C:H) films in the near IR – UV range. The RRS spectra of trans-(CH)x core Ag modes and the PPV CC-H phenylene mode are found to transform and disperse as the laser excitation energy ћωL is increased from near IR through visible to UV, whereas sp-bonded inclusions only become evident in UV. This is attributed to ћωL probing of trans-(CH)x chain inhomogeneity and the distribution of chains with varying conjugation length; for PPV to the resonant probing of phelynene ring disorder; and for sp segments, to ћωL probing of a local band gap of end-terminated polyynes. The IR spectra analysis confirmed the presence of sp, trans-(CH)x and PPV inclusions. The obtained RRS results for a-C:H denote differentiation between the core Ag trans-(CH)x modes and the PPV phenylene mode. Furthermore, it was found that at various laser excitation energies the changes in Raman spectra features for trans-(CH)x segments included in an amorphous carbon matrix are the same as in bulk trans-polyacetylene. The latter finding can be used to facilitate identification of trans-(CH)x in the spectra of complex carbonaceous materials.

A three species model to simulate application of hyperbaric oxygen therapy to chronic wounds

Chronic wounds are a significant socioeconomic problem for governments worldwide. Approximately 15% of people who suffer from diabetes will experience a lower-limb ulcer at some stage of their lives, and 24% of these wounds will ultimately result in amputation of the lower limb. Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy (HBOT) has been shown to aid the healing of chronic wounds; however, the causal reasons for the improved healing remain unclear and hence current HBOT protocols remain empirical. Here we develop a three-species mathematical model of wound healing that is used to simulate the application of hyperbaric oxygen therapy in the treatment of wounds. Based on our modelling, we predict that intermittent HBOT will assist chronic wound healing while normobaric oxygen is ineffective in treating such wounds. Furthermore, treatment should continue until healing is complete, and HBOT will not stimulate healing under all circumstances, leading us to conclude that finding the right protocol for an individual patient is crucial if HBOT is to be effective. We provide constraints that depend on the model parameters for the range of HBOT protocols that will stimulate healing. More specifically, we predict that patients with a poor arterial supply of oxygen, high consumption of oxygen by the wound tissue, chronically hypoxic wounds, and/or a dysfunctional endothelial cell response to oxygen are at risk of nonresponsiveness to HBOT. The work of this paper can, in some way, highlight which patients are most likely to respond well to HBOT (for example, those with a good arterial supply), and thus has the potential to assist in improving both the success rate and hence the costeffectiveness of this therapy.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.