Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

Transportation disadvantage determination framework : space-time organisation measure in determining transportation disadvantage

Transportation disadvantage has been recognised to be the key source of social exclusion. Therefore an appropriate process is required to investigate and seek to resolve this problem. Currently, determination of Transportation Disadvantage is postulate based on income, poverty and mobility level. Transportation disadvantage may best regard be based on accessibility perspectives as they represent inability of the individual to access desired activities. This paper attempts to justify a process in determining transportation disadvantage by incorporating accessibility and social transporation conflict as the essence of a framework. The framework embeds space time organisation within the dimension of accessibility to identify a rigorous definition of transportation disadvantage. In developing the framework, the definition, dimension, component and measure of accessibility were scrutinised. The findings suggest the definition and dimension are the significant approach of research to evaluate travel experience of the disadvantaged. Concurrently, location accessibility measures will be incorprated to strenghten the determination of accessibility level. Literature review in social exclusion and mobility-related exclusion identified the dimension and source of transportation disadvantage. It was revealed that the appropriate approach to justify trasnportation disadvantaged is to incorporate space-time organisation within the studied components. The suggested framework is an inter-related process consisting of component of accessibility; individual, networking (transport system) and activities (destination). The integration and correlation among the components shall determine the level of transportation disadvantage. Prior findings are used to retrieve the spatial distribution of transportation disadvantaged and appropriate policies are developed to resolve the problems.

Distributed orthogonal space-time block codes with adaptive diversity gain

In this paper we present a novel distributed coding protocol for multi-user cooperative networks. The proposed distributed coding protocol exploits the existing orthogonal space-time block codes to achieve higher diversity gain by repeating the code across time and space (available relay nodes). The achievable diversity gain depends on the number of relay nodes that can fully decode the signal from the source. These relay nodes then form space-time codes to cooperatively relay to the destination using number of time slots. However, the improved diversity gain is archived at the expense of the transmission rate. The design principles of the proposed space-time distributed code and the issues related to transmission rate and diversity trade off is discussed in detail. We show that the proposed distributed space-time coding protocol out performs existing distributed codes with a variable transmission rate.

Slotted distributed space-time coding

Distributed space-time coding (DSTC) exploits the concept of cooperative diversity and space-time coding to offer a powerful bandwidth efficient solution with improved diversity. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of DSTC with slotted amplify-and-forward protocol (SAF). Relay nodes between the source and the destination nodes are grouped into two relay clusters based on their respective locations and these relay clusters cooperate to transmit the space-time coded signal to the destination node in different time frames. We further extend the proposed Slotted-DSTC to Slotted DSTC with redundant code (Slotted-DSTC-R) protocol where the relay nodes in both relay clusters forward the same space-time coded signal to the destination node to achieve a higher diversity order.

Space-time clusters of dengue fever in Bangladesh

Objective:  To examine the space-time clustering of dengue fever (DF) transmission in Bangladesh using geographical information system and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan). Methods:  We obtained data on monthly suspected DF cases and deaths by district in Bangladesh for the period of 2000–2009 from Directorate General of Health Services. Population and district boundary data of each district were collected from national census managed by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. To identify the space-time clusters of DF transmission a discrete Poisson model was performed using SaTScan software. Results:  Space-time distribution of DF transmission was clustered during three periods 2000–2002, 2003–2005 and 2006–2009. Dhaka was the most likely cluster for DF in all three periods. Several other districts were significant secondary clusters. However, the geographical range of DF transmission appears to have declined in Bangladesh over the last decade. Conclusion:  There were significant space-time clusters of DF in Bangladesh over the last decade. Our results would prompt future studies to explore how social and ecological factors may affect DF transmission and would also be useful for improving DF control and prevention programs in Bangladesh.

A Novel High Order Space-Time Spectral Method for the Time Fractional Fokker--Planck Equation

The fractional Fokker-Planck equation is an important physical model for simulating anomalous diffusions with external forces. Because of the non-local property of the fractional derivative an interesting problem is to explore high accuracy numerical methods for fractional differential equations. In this paper, a space-time spectral method is presented for the numerical solution of the time fractional Fokker-Planck initial-boundary value problem. The proposed method employs the Jacobi polynomials for the temporal discretization and Fourier-like basis functions for the spatial discretization. Due to the diagonalizable trait of the Fourier-like basis functions, this leads to a reduced representation of the inner product in the Galerkin analysis. We prove that the time fractional Fokker-Planck equation attains the same approximation order as the time fractional diffusion equation developed in [23] by using the present method. That indicates an exponential decay may be achieved if the exact solution is sufficiently smooth. Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the high order accuracy and efficiency of the new numerical scheme. The results show that the errors of the numerical solutions obtained by the space-time spectral method decay exponentially.