How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

Contemplating Open Source Enterprise Systems

Until recently, integration of enterprise systems has been supported largely by monolithic architectures. From a technical perspective, this approach has been challenged by the suggestion of component-based enterprise systems. Lately, the nature of software as proprietary item has been questioned through the increased use of open source software in business computing in general. This suggests the potential for altered technological and commercial constellations for the design of enterprise systems, which are presented in four scenarios. © Springer-Verlag 2004.

Open Source Enterprise Systems: Towards a Viable Alternative

Enterprise systems are located within the antinomy of appearing as generic product, while being means of multiple integrations for the user through configuration and customisation. Technological and organisational integrations are defined by architectures and standardised interfaces. Until recently, technological integration of enterprise systems has been supported largely by monolithic architectures that were designed, and maintained by the respective developers. From a technical perspective, this approach had been challenged by the suggestion of component-based enterprise systems that would allow for a more user-focused system through strict modularisation. Lately, the product nature of software as proprietary item has been questioned through the rapid increase of open source programs that are being used in business computing in general, and also within the overall portfolio that makes up enterprise systems. This suggests the potential for altered technological and commercial constellations for the design of enterprise systems, which are presented in different scenarios. The technological and commercial decomposition of enterprise software and systems may also address some concerns emerging from the users’ experience of those systems, and which may have arisen from their proprietary or product nature.

Landscape symphonies : gardening as a source of landscape architecture practice engaged with change

The notion of designing with change constitutes a fundamental and foundational theoretical premise for much of what constitutes landscape architecture, notably through engagement with ecology, particularly since the work of Ian McHarg in the 1960s and his key text Design with Nature. However, while most if not all texts in landscape architecture would cite this engagement of change theoretically, few go any further than citation, and when they do their methods seem fixated on utilising empirical, quantitative scientific tools for doing so, rather than the tools of design, in an architectural sense, as implied by the name of the discipline, landscape architecture.