Exploratory spatial analysis of social and environmental factors associated with the incidence of Ross River Virus in Brisbane, Australia

We used geographic information systems and a spatial analysis approach to explore the pattern of Ross River virus (RRV) incidence in Brisbane, Australia. Climate, vegetation and socioeconomic data in 2001 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Brisbane City Council and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Information on the RRV cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Spatial and multiple negative binomial regression models were used to identify the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of RRV transmission. The results show that RRV activity was primarily concentrated in the northeastern, northwestern, and southeastern regions in Brisbane. Multiple negative binomial regression models showed that the spatial pattern of RRV disease in Brisbane seemed to be determined by a combination of local ecologic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.

A cluster-randomised intervention trial against Schistosoma japonicum in the Peoples' Republic of China: bovine and human transmission

Background Zoonotic schistosomiasis japonica is a major public health problem in China. Bovines, particularly water buffaloes, are thought to play a major role in the transmission of schistosomiasis to humans in China. Preliminary results (1998–2003) of a praziquantel (PZQ)-based pilot intervention study we undertook provided proof of principle that water buffaloes are major reservoir hosts for S. japonicum in the Poyang Lake region, Jiangxi Province. Methods and Findings Here we present the results of a cluster-randomised intervention trial (2004–2007) undertaken in Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces, with increased power and more general applicability to the lake and marshlands regions of southern China. The trial involved four matched pairs of villages with one village within each pair randomly selected as a control (human PZQ treatment only), leaving the other as the intervention (human and bovine PZQ treatment). A sentinel cohort of people to be monitored for new infections for the duration of the study was selected from each village. Results showed that combined human and bovine chemotherapy with PZQ had a greater effect on human incidence than human PZQ treatment alone. Conclusions The results from this study, supported by previous experimental evidence, confirms that bovines are the major reservoir host of human schistosomiasis in the lake and marshland regions of southern China, and reinforce the rationale for the development and deployment of a transmission blocking anti-S. japonicum vaccine targeting bovines.

Critical social theory and transformative learning : evidence in pre-service teachers' service-learning reflection logs

This paper reports on the opportunities for transformational learning experienced by a group of pre-service teachers who were engaged in service-learning as a pedagogical process with a focus on reflection. Critical social theory informed the design of the reflection process as it enabled a move away from knowledge transmission toward knowledge transformation. The structured reflection log was designed to illustrate the critical social theory expectations of quality learning that teach students to think critically: ideology critique and utopian critique. Butin's lenses and a reflection framework informed by the work of Bain, Ballantyne, Mills and Lester were used in the design of the service-learning reflection log. Reported data provide evidence of transformational learning and highlight how the students critique their world and imagine how they could contribute to a better world in their work as a beginning teacher.

Social studies disciplinary knowledge: Tensions between state curriculum and national assessment requirements

In this chapter, we are particularly concerned with making visible the general principles underlying the transmission of Social Studies curriculum knowledge, and considering it in light of a high-stakes mandated national assessment task. Specifically, we draw on Bernstein’s theoretical concept of pedagogic models as a tool for analysing orientations to teaching and learning. We introduce a case in point from the Australian context: one state Social Studies curriculum vis-a-vis one part of the Year Three national assessment measure for reading. We use our findings to consider the implications for the disciplinary knowledge of Social Studies in the communities in which we are undertaking our respective Australian Research Council Linkage project work (Glasswell et al.; Woods et al.). We propose that Social Studies disciplinary knowledge is being constituted, in part, through power struggles between different agencies responsible for the production and relay of official forms of state curriculum and national literacy assessment. This is particularly the case when assessment instruments are used to compare and contrast school results in highly visible web based league tables (see, for example, http://myschoolaustralia.ning.com/).

Difference in mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae) and the transmission of Ross River Virus between coastline and inland areas in Brisbane, Australia

This study examined the distribution of major mosquito species and their roles in the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection for coastline and inland areas in Brisbane, Australia (27°28′ S, 153°2′ E). We obtained data on the monthly counts of RRV cases in Brisbane between November 1998 and December 2001 by statistical local areas from the Queensland Department of Health and the monthly mosquito abundance from the Brisbane City Council. Correlation analysis was used to assess the pairwise relationships between mosquito density and the incidence of RRV disease. This study showed that the mosquito abundance of Aedes vigilax (Skuse), Culex annulirostris (Skuse), and Aedes vittiger (Skuse) were significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRV in the coastline area, whereas Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, and Aedes notoscriptus (Skuse) were significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRV in the inland area. The results of the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis show that both occurrence and incidence of RRV were influenced by interactions between species in both coastal and inland regions. We found that there was an 89% chance for an occurrence of RRV if the abundance of Ae. vigifax was between 64 and 90 in the coastline region. There was an 80% chance for an occurrence of RRV if the density of Cx. annulirostris was between 53 and 74 in the inland area. The results of this study may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control of RRV and other mosquito-borne diseases.

Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Socio-environmental variability and Barmah Forest virus disease transmission : a review of epidemiological evidence and future prospects

Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) disease is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. BFV transmission depends on factors such as climate, virus, vector and the human population. However, the impact of climatic and social factors on BFV remains to be determined. This paper provided an overview of current research and discusses the future research directions on the BFV transmission. These research findings could be regarded as an impetus towards BFV prevention and control strategies.

Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

Background: Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR) in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods: Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results: The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (beta = 1.244, p = 0.000) alone and combination (SPR, beta = 1.326, p < 0.001) with other predictors can explain about 85% and 95% of variation in malaria transmission, respectively. Every 1% increase in SPR corresponded to an increase of 1.76/100,000 in malaria incidence rates. Conclusion: SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Education for social responsibility: Ethics and imagination for engaging students and teachers in educational reform

In this chapter we make assumptions about the primary role of education for the life of its beneficiaries and for society. Undoubtedly, formal education plays an important role in enhancing the likelihood for participation in future social life, including enjoyment and employment, by the student as well as the development of the well being of society in general. Similarly, education is often seen as a main means for intergenerational transmission of knowledge and culture. However, as Dewey (1916) argues, in liberal societies, education has the capacity of enhancing democratic participation in society that goes beyond passive participation by its members. One can argue that the achievement of the ideals of democracy demands a free and strong education system. In other words, while education can function as an instrument to integrate students into the present society, it also has the potential to become an instrument for its transformation by means of which citizens can develop an understanding of how their society functions and a sense of agency towards its transformation. Arguably, this is what Freire (1985) meant when he talked about the role of education to “read and write” the world. A stream of progressive educators (e.g., Apple (2004), Freire, (1985), Giroux (2001) and McLaren (2002)) taught us that the reading of the world that is capable of leading into writing the world is a critical reading; i.e., a reading that poses “Why” questions and imagines “What else can be” (Carr & Kemmis, 1987).

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Impact of socio-ecological variability on the transmission of malaria in Yunnan Province, China

This thesis is a population-based epidemiological study to explore the spatial and temporal pattern of malaria, and to assess the relationship between socio-ecological factors and malaria in Yunnan, China. Geospatial and temporal approaches were applied; the high risk areas of the disease were identified; and socio-ecological drivers of malaria were assessed. These findings will provide important evidence for the control and prevention of malaria in China and other countries with a similar situation of endemic malaria.