An empirical investigation of the level effect in Australian interest rates

An extensive literature examines the dynamics of interest rates, with particular attention given to the positive relationship between interest-rate volatility and the level of interest rates—the so-called level effect. This paper examines the interaction between the estimated level effect and competing parameterisations of interest-rate volatility for the Australian yield curve. We adopt a new methodology that estimates elasticity in a multivariate setting that explicitly accommodates the correlations that exist between various yield factors. Results show that significant correlations exist between the residuals of yield factors and that such correlations do indeed impact on model estimates. Within the multivariate setting, the level of the short rate is shown to be a crucial determinant of the conditional volatility of all three yield factors. Measures of model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts is important

The distribution of the sample minimum-variance frontier

In this paper, we present a finite sample analysis of the sample minimum-variance frontier under the assumption that the returns are independent and multivariate normally distributed. We show that the sample minimum-variance frontier is a highly biased estimator of the population frontier, and we propose an improved estimator of the population frontier. In addition, we provide the exact distribution of the out-of-sample mean and variance of sample minimum-variance portfolios. This allows us to understand the impact of estimation error on the performance of in-sample optimal portfolios. Key Words: minimum-variance frontier; efficiency set constants; finite sample distribution

Learning from episodes of degradation and recovery in variable Australian rangelands

Land-change science emphasizes the intimate linkages between the human and environmental components of land management systems. Recent theoretical developments in drylands identify a small set of key principles that can guide the understanding of these linkages. Using these principles, a detailed study of seven major degradation episodes over the past century in Australian grazed rangelands was reanalyzed to show a common set of events: (i) good climatic and economic conditions for a period, leading to local and regional social responses of increasing stocking rates, setting the preconditions for rapid environmental collapse, followed by (ii) a major drought coupled with a fall in the market making destocking financially unattractive, further exacerbating the pressure on the environment; then (iii) permanent or temporary declines in grazing productivity, depending on follow-up seasons coupled again with market and social conditions. The analysis supports recent theoretical developments but shows that the establishment of environmental knowledge that is strictly local may be insufficient on its own for sustainable management. Learning systems based in a wider community are needed that combine local knowledge, formal research, and institutional support. It also illustrates how natural variability in the state of both ecological and social systems can interact to precipitate nonequilibrial change in each other, so that planning cannot be based only on average conditions. Indeed, it is this variability in both environment and social subsystems that hinders the local learning required to prevent collapse.

Evolutionary relationships and divergence times among the native rats of Australia

Background The genus Rattus is highly speciose and has a complex taxonomy that is not fully resolved. As shown previously there are two major groups within the genus, an Asian and an Australo-Papuan group. This study focuses on the Australo-Papuan group and particularly on the Australian rats. There are uncertainties regarding the number of species within the group and the relationships among them. We analysed 16 mitochondrial genomes, including seven novel genomes from six species, to help elucidate the evolutionary history of the Australian rats. We also demonstrate, from a larger dataset, the usefulness of short regions of the mitochondrial genome in identifying these rats at the species level. Results Analyses of 16 mitochondrial genomes representing species sampled from Australo-Papuan and Asian clades of Rattus indicate divergence of these two groups ~2.7 million years ago (Mya). Subsequent diversification of at least 4 lineages within the Australo-Papuan clade was rapid and occurred over the period from ~ 0.9-1.7 Mya, a finding that explains the difficulty in resolving some relationships within this clade. Phylogenetic analyses of our 126 taxon, but shorter sequence (1952 nucleotides long), Rattus database generally give well supported species clades. Conclusions Our whole mitochondrial genome analyses are concordant with a taxonomic division that places the native Australian rats into the Rattus fuscipes species group. We suggest the following order of divergence of the Australian species. R. fuscipes is the oldest lineage among the Australian rats and is not part of a New Guinean radiation. R. lutreolus is also within this Australian clade and shallower than R. tunneyi while the R. sordidus group is the shallowest lineage in the clade. The divergences within the R. sordidus and R. leucopus lineages occurring about half a million years ago support the hypotheses of more recent interchanges of rats between Australia and New Guinea. While problematic for inference of deeper divergences, we report that the analysis of shorter mitochondrial sequences is very useful for species identification in rats.

Encouraging, assisting and time to EAT : improved nutritional intake for older medical patients receiving Protected Mealtimes and/or additional nursing feeding assistance

Background & Aims: Inadequate feeding assistance and mealtime interruptions during hospitalisation may contribute to malnutrition and poor nutritional intake in older people. This study aimed to implement and compare three interventions designed to specifically address mealtime barriers and improve energy intakes of medical inpatients aged ≥65 years. Methods: Pre-post study compared three mealtime assistance interventions: PM: Protected Mealtimes with multidisciplinary education; AIN: additional assistant-in-nursing (AIN) with dedicated meal role; PM+AIN: combined intervention. Dietary intake of 254 patients (pre: n=115, post: n=141; mean age 80±8) was visually estimated on a single day in the first week of hospitalisation and compared with estimated energy requirements. Assistance activities were observed and recorded. Results: Mealtime assistance levels significantly increased in all interventions (p<0.01). Post-intervention participants were more likely to achieve adequate energy intake (OR=3.4, p=0.01), with no difference noted between interventions (p=0.29). Patients with cognitive impairment or feeding dependency appeared to gain substantial benefit from mealtime assistance interventions. Conclusions: Protected Mealtimes and additional AIN assistance (implemented alone or in combination) may produce modest improvements in nutritional intake. Targeted feeding assistance for certain patient groups holds promise; however, alternative strategies are required to address the complex problem of malnutrition in this population.

Design, implementation and multisite evaluation of a system suitability protocol for the quantitative assessment of instrument performance in liquid chromatography-multiple reaction monitoring-MS (LC-MRM-MS)

Multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mass spectrometry coupled with stable isotope dilution (SID) and liquid chromatography (LC) is increasingly used in biological and clinical studies for precise and reproducible quantification of peptides and proteins in complex sample matrices. Robust LC-SID-MRM-MS-based assays that can be replicated across laboratories and ultimately in clinical laboratory settings require standardized protocols to demonstrate that the analysis platforms are performing adequately. We developed a system suitability protocol (SSP), which employs a predigested mixture of six proteins, to facilitate performance evaluation of LC-SID-MRM-MS instrument platforms, configured with nanoflow-LC systems interfaced to triple quadrupole mass spectrometers. The SSP was designed for use with low multiplex analyses as well as high multiplex approaches when software-driven scheduling of data acquisition is required. Performance was assessed by monitoring of a range of chromatographic and mass spectrometric metrics including peak width, chromatographic resolution, peak capacity, and the variability in peak area and analyte retention time (RT) stability. The SSP, which was evaluated in 11 laboratories on a total of 15 different instruments, enabled early diagnoses of LC and MS anomalies that indicated suboptimal LC-MRM-MS performance. The observed range in variation of each of the metrics scrutinized serves to define the criteria for optimized LC-SID-MRM-MS platforms for routine use, with pass/fail criteria for system suitability performance measures defined as peak area coefficient of variation <0.15, peak width coefficient of variation <0.15, standard deviation of RT <0.15 min (9 s), and the RT drift <0.5min (30 s). The deleterious effect of a marginally performing LC-SID-MRM-MS system on the limit of quantification (LOQ) in targeted quantitative assays illustrates the use and need for a SSP to establish robust and reliable system performance. Use of a SSP helps to ensure that analyte quantification measurements can be replicated with good precision within and across multiple laboratories and should facilitate more widespread use of MRM-MS technology by the basic biomedical and clinical laboratory research communities.

Crizotinib versus chemotherapy in advanced ALK-positive lung cancer

BACKGROUND: In single-group studies, chromosomal rearrangements of the anaplastic lymphoma kinase gene (ALK ) have been associated with marked clinical responses to crizotinib, an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting ALK. Whether crizotinib is superior to standard chemotherapy with respect to efficacy is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a phase 3, open-label trial comparing crizotinib with chemotherapy in 347 patients with locally advanced or metastatic ALK-positive lung cancer who had received one prior platinum-based regimen. Patients were randomly assigned to receive oral treatment with crizotinib (250 mg) twice daily or intravenous chemotherapy with either pemetrexed (500 mg per square meter of body-surface area) or docetaxel (75 mg per square meter) every 3 weeks. Patients in the chemotherapy group who had disease progression were permitted to cross over to crizotinib as part of a separate study. The primary end point was progression-free survival. RESULTS: The median progression-free survival was 7.7 months in the crizotinib group and 3.0 months in the chemotherapy group (hazard ratio for progression or death with crizotinib, 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.37 to 0.64; P<0.001). The response rates were 65% (95% CI, 58 to 72) with crizotinib, as compared with 20% (95% CI, 14 to 26) with chemotherapy (P<0.001). An interim analysis of overall survival showed no significant improvement with crizotinib as compared with chemotherapy (hazard ratio for death in the crizotinib group, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.54; P=0.54). Common adverse events associated with crizotinib were visual disorder, gastrointestinal side effects, and elevated liver aminotransferase levels, whereas common adverse events with chemotherapy were fatigue, alopecia, and dyspnea. Patients reported greater reductions in symptoms of lung cancer and greater improvement in global quality of life with crizotinib than with chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Crizotinib is superior to standard chemotherapy in patients with previously treated, advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with ALK rearrangement. (Funded by Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00932893.) Copyright © 2013 Massachusetts Medical Society.

Towards automated and in-situ, near-real time 3-D reconstruction of coral reef environments

Coral reefs are biologically complex ecosystems that support a wide variety of marine organisms. These are fragile communities under enormous threat from natural and human-based influences. Properly assessing and measuring the growth and health of reefs is essential to understanding impacts of ocean acidification, coastal urbanisation and global warming. In this paper, we present an innovative 3-D reconstruction technique based on visual imagery as a non-intrusive, repeatable, in situ method for estimating physical parameters, such as surface area and volume for efficient assessment of long-term variability. The reconstruction algorithms are presented, and benchmarked using an existing data set. We validate the technique underwater, utilising a commercial-off-the-shelf camera and a piece of staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis. The resulting reconstruction is compared with a laser scan of the coral piece for assessment and validation. The comparison shows that 77% of the pixels in the reconstruction are within 0.3 mm of the ground truth laser scan. Reconstruction results from an unknown video camera are also presented as a segue to future applications of this research.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A 250 μg/week dose of vitamin D was as effective as a 50 μg/d dose in healthy adults, but a regimen of four weekly followed by monthly doses of 1250 μg raised the risk of hypercalciuria

The risk of vitamin D insufficiency is increased in persons having limited sunlight exposure and dietary vitamin D. Supplementation compliance might be improved with larger doses taken less often, but this may increase the potential for side effects. The objective of the present study was to determine whether a weekly or weekly/monthly regimen of vitamin D supplementation is as effective as daily supplementation without increasing the risk of side effects. Participants were forty-eight healthy adults who were randomly assigned for 3 months to placebo or one of three supplementation regimens: 50 μg/d (2000 IU/d, analysed dose 70 μg/d), 250 μg/week (10 000 IU/week, analysed dose 331 μg/week) or 1250 μg/week (50 000 IU/week, analysed dose 1544 μg/week) for 4 weeks and then 1250 μg/month for 2 months. Daily and weekly doses were equally effective at increasing serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, which was significantly greater than baseline in all the supplemented groups after 30 d of treatment. Subjects in the 1250 μg treatment group, who had a BMI >26 kg/m2, had a steady increase in urinary Ca in the first 3 weeks of supplementation, and, overall, the relative risk of hypercalciuria was higher in the 1250 μg group than in the placebo group (P= 0·01). Although vitamin D supplementation remains a controversial issue, these data document that supplementing with ≤ 250 μg/week ( ≤ 10 000 IU/week) can improve or maintain vitamin D status in healthy populations without the risk of hypercalciuria, but 24 h urinary Ca excretion should be evaluated in healthy persons receiving vitamin D3 supplementation in weekly single doses of 1250 μg (50 000 IU).

Does a 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine prevent respiratory exacerbations in children with recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis, chronic suppurative lung disease and bronchiectasis : protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis (PBB), chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD) and bronchiectasis are characterised by a chronic wet cough and are important causes of childhood respiratory morbidity globally. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae are the most commonly associated pathogens. As respiratory exacerbations impair quality of life and may be associated with disease progression, we will determine if the novel 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) reduces exacerbations in these children. Methods A multi-centre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in tertiary paediatric centres from three Australian cities is planned. Two hundred six children aged 18 months to 14 years with recurrent PBB, CSLD or bronchiectasis will be randomised to receive either two doses of PHiD-CV or control meningococcal (ACYW(135)) conjugate vaccine 2 months apart and followed for 12 months after the second vaccine dose. Randomisation will be stratified by site, age (<6 years and >= 6 years) and aetiology (recurrent PBB or CSLD/bronchiectasis). Clinical histories, respiratory status (including spirometry in children aged >= 6 years), nasopharyngeal and saliva swabs, and serum will be collected at baseline and at 2, 3, 8 and 14 months post-enrolment. Local and systemic reactions will be recorded on daily diaries for 7 and 30 days, respectively, following each vaccine dose and serious adverse events monitored throughout the trial. Fortnightly, parental contact will help record respiratory exacerbations. The primary outcome is the incidence of respiratory exacerbations in the 12 months following the second vaccine dose. Secondary outcomes include: nasopharyngeal carriage of H. influenzae and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; systemic and mucosal immune responses to H. influenzae proteins and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; impact upon lung function in children aged >= 6 years; and vaccine safety. Discussion As H. influenzae is the most common bacterial pathogen associated with these chronic respiratory diseases in children, a novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that also impacts upon H. influenzae and helps prevent respiratory exacerbations would assist clinical management with potential short- and long-term health benefits. Our study will be the first to assess vaccine efficacy targeting H. influenzae in children with recurrent PBB, CSLD and bronchiectasis.

Ross River virus arthritis

“Epidemics” of a benign disease causing polyarthralgia and rash were first described in Australia in 1927.63 Following the recovery of the causative agent and the advent of serologic tests able to diagnose Ross River virus infection, epidemic polyarthritis has been recognized as endemic in Australia and has occurred as epidemics in numerous Pacific nations. Approximately 4000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis are reported in Australia each year, with a peak of 7800 cases in 1996. Some confusion has been generated recently by use of the term Ross River fever to describe clinical Ross River virus infections because fever does not develop in more than half of those with clinical disease.59 Additional confusion has been generated by efforts to describe any polyarthritis caused by an Australian arbovirus as epidemic polyarthritis. The term epidemic polyarthritis should be used to describe only clinical disease caused by Ross River virus.

Serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D concentrations are more deficient/insufficient in peritoneal dialysis than haemodialysis patients in a sunny climate

Background Research has identified associations between serum 25(OH)D and a range of clinical outcomes in chronic kidney disease and wider populations. The present study aimed to investigate vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency in dialysis patients and the relationship with vitamin D intake and sun exposure. Methods A cross-sectional study was used. Participants included 30 peritoneal dialysis (PD) (43.3% male; 56.87 ± 16.16 years) and 26 haemodialysis (HD) (80.8% male; 63.58 ± 15.09 years) patients attending a department of renal medicine. Explanatory variables were usual vitamin D intake from diet/supplements (IU day−1) and sun exposure (min day−1). Vitamin D intake, sun exposure and ethnic background were assessed by questionnaire. Weight, malnutrition status and routine biochemistry were also assessed. Data were collected during usual department visits. The main outcome measure was serum 25(OH)D (nm). Results Prevalence of inadequate/insufficient vitamin D intake differed between dialysis modality, with 31% and 43% found to be insufficient (<50 nm) and 4% and 33% found to be deficient (<25 nm) in HD and PD patients, respectively (P < 0.001). In HD patients, there was a correlation between diet and supplemental vitamin D intake and 25(OH)D (ρ = 0.84, P < 0.001) and average sun exposure and 25(OH)D (ρ = 0.50, P < 0.02). There were no associations in PD patients. The results remained significant for vitamin D intake after multiple regression, adjusting for age, gender and sun exposure. Conclusions The results highlight a strong association between vitamin D intake and 25(OH)D in HD but not PD patients, with implications for replacement recommendations. The findings indicate that, even in a sunny climate, many dialysis patients are vitamin D deficient, highlighting the need for exploration of determinants and consequences.

Crystal structure of the magnesium salt of the herbicide 2,4-D: pentaaqua[(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetato-kO]magnesium (2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetate hemihydrate

In the structure of the title magnesium complex with the phenoxy herbicide (2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetic acid (2,4-D), [Mg(H2O)5(C8H5Cl2O3)]+ C8H5Cl2O3)- . 0.5H2O, the discrete cationic MgO6 complex units comprise a carboxyl O-donor from a monodentate 2,4-D cationic ligand and five water molecules in a slightly distorted octahedral coordination. The 2,4-D anions are linked to the complex units through duplex water O-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bonds through the coordinated water molecules. In the crystal inter-unit O-H...O hydrogen-bonding interactions involving coordinated water molecules as well as the hemi-hydrate solvate molecule with carboxyl O-atom acceptors, give a two-dimensional layered structure lying parallel (001), in which pi-pi ligand-cation interactions [minimum ring centroid separation, 3.6405(17)A] and a short O-H...Cl interaction [3.345(2)A] are also found.