Simulating a latent susceptible pool to examine the impact on cardiovascular mortality

The health effects of cold and hot temperatures are strongest in the frail and elderly. A large number of deaths in this "susceptible pool" after heat waves and cold snaps can cause mortality displacement, where an immediate increase in mortality is somewhat offset by a subsequent decrease in the following weeks. There may also be longer-term implications, as reductions in the pool caused by hot summers can reduce cold-related mortality in the following winter. A state-space model was used to simulate the numbers in the susceptible pool over time. We simulated the effects of harsh winters and heat waves, and varied the size of the susceptible pool. The larger the susceptible pool the smaller the mortality displacement. When 1% of the population were susceptible a harsh winter lead to an average of just 3 months of life lost per cold-related death, whereas a pool size of 10% meant that 24 months of life were lost per death. The impact of a cold spell on months of life lost was greater when the increased risk of death also applied to healthy people. The number of deaths caused by an August heat wave were reduced when there was a prior heat wave in June which reduced the susceptible pool. We were able to mimic some observed seasonal patterns in mortality using a simple state-space model. A better understanding of the size and dynamics of the susceptible pool will improve our understanding of the health effects of temperature.

Something rotten in the state of Minnesota: or the morality of backwoodsmen: 'A Simple Plan'

'A Simple Plan' is a deceptively complex and multilayered film, combining elements of Celtic mythology with the morality play and the windfall fantasy gone disastrously wrong. Despite its blending of realism and heavyhanded symbolism, and its abundant trans-textual gestures, 'A Simple Plan' is in many ways defiantly not a 90s movie: its leading characters are fashionably flawed, but they are neither sensitive, nor honourable, nor heroic; there are no startling special effects or intricate timeshifts; and it desperately gives the impression of depth, of being emphatically more than mere superficial excess. At a stretch it almost appears to be a throwback to the 1930s Production Code emphasis on the role of cinema in moral instruction; while good hardly triumphs over evil, venality is painfully and emphatically punished. But in other ways it is a quintessential late 90s film: an American/British/Japanese/German/French co-production, 'A Simple Plan' acts most palpably as a commentary on the moral, economic and social condition of the United States at the end of the American century.

A phenomenological model for the structure-composition relationship of the high Tc cuprates based on simple chemical principles

A simple phenomenological model for the relationship between structure and composition of the high Tc cuprates is presented. The model is based on two simple crystal chemistry principles: unit cell doping and charge balance within unit cells. These principles are inspired by key experimental observations of how the materials accommodate large deviations from stoichiometry. Consistent explanations for significant HTSC properties can be explained without any additional assumptions while retaining valuable insight for geometric interpretation. Combining these two chemical principles with a review of Crystal Field Theory (CFT) or Ligand Field Theory (LFT), it becomes clear that the two oxidation states in the conduction planes (typically d8 and d9) belong to the most strongly divergent d-levels as a function of deformation from regular octahedral coordination. This observation offers a link to a range of coupling effects relating vibrations and spin waves through application of Hund’s rules. An indication of this model’s capacity to predict physical properties for HTSC is provided and will be elaborated in subsequent publications. Simple criteria for the relationship between structure and composition in HTSC systems may guide chemical syntheses within new material systems.

A novel CDVM based high-voltage converter using low power solid-state switches and a tuned resonant circuit designed for pulsed power applications

A novel concept of producing high dc voltage for pulsed-power applications is proposed in this paper. The topology consists of an LC resonant circuit supplied through a tuned alternating waveform that is produced by an inverter. The control scheme is based on the detection of variations in the resonant frequency and adjustment of the switching signal patterns for the inverter to produce a square waveform with exactly the same frequencies. Therefore the capacitor voltage oscillates divergently with an increasing amplitude. A simple one-stage capacitor-diode voltage multiplier (CDVM) connected to the resonant capacitor then rectifies the alternating voltage and gives a dc level equal to twice the input voltage amplitude. The produced high voltage appears then in the form of high-voltage pulses across the load. A basic model is simulated by Simulink platform of MATLAB and the results are included in the paper.

Case study of Queensland state taxation

1. Like the Commonwealth Tax regime, state taxation legislation has now ballooned in size from the good old days when life and tax were relatively simple issues. 2. This case study of Queensland state taxation will examine the following taxes affecting churches and charities in this state: (a) Stamp Duty (b) Land Tax; and (c) Local Authority Rates 3. Each type of tax will be considered in turn. A brief legislative history of the statutory instruments governing these taxes will be given with a closer examination of the present schemes. Relevant judicial pronouncements will be considered and some open discussion of real life examples. 4. It is submitted that the regular donors to our worthy charities and the dedicated weekly churchgoers would have absolutely no idea: (a) that indirectly the value of their donations and weekly offerings are increasingly being eroded by the imposts of Government not only in terms of the amounts of those imposts but the enormous administrative burden of coping with the legislation; (b) of the complexity of the taxation legislation affecting their churches and charities; or (c) that their churches and charities are even paying taxes.

How to design extended finite state machine test models in Java

This chapter is a tutorial that teaches you how to design extended finite state machine (EFSM) test models for a system that you want to test. EFSM models are more powerful and expressive than simple finite state machine (FSM) models, and are one of the most commonly used styles of models for model-based testing, especially for embedded systems. There are many languages and notations in use for writing EFSM models, but in this tutorial we write our EFSM models in the familiar Java programming language. To generate tests from these EFSM models we use ModelJUnit, which is an open-source tool that supports several stochastic test generation algorithms, and we also show how to write your own model-based testing tool. We show how EFSM models can be used for unit testing and system testing of embedded systems, and for offline testing as well as online testing.

Structure, magnetism and colour in simple bis­(phosphine)nickel(II) dihalide complexes : an experimental and theoretical investigation

The complex [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­iodido­nickel(II), [NiI2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiI2, [dtbpe is 1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane], is bright blue-green in the solid state and in solution, but, contrary to the structure predicted for a blue or green nickel(II) bis­(phos­phine) complex, it is found to be close to square planar in the solid state. The solution structure is deduced to be similar, because the optical spectra measured in solution and in the solid state contain similar absorptions. In solution at room temperature, no 31P{1H} NMR resonance is observed, but the very small solid-state magnetic moment at temperatures down to 4 K indicates that the weak paramagnetism of this nickel(II) complex can be ascribed to temperature independent paramagnetism, and that the complex has no unpaired electrons. The red [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­chlorido­nickel(II), [NiCl2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiCl2, is very close to square planar and very weakly paramagnetic in the solid state and in solution, while the maroon [1,2-bis­(di-tert-butyl­phosphan­yl)ethane-[kappa]2P,P']di­bromido­nickel(II), [NiBr2(C18H40P2] or (dtbpe-[kappa]2P)NiBr2, is isostructural with the diiodide in the solid state, and displays paramagnetism inter­mediate between that of the dichloride and the diiodide in the solid state and in solution. Density functional calculations demonstrate that distortion from an ideal square plane for these complexes occurs on a flat potential energy surface. The calculations reproduce the observed structures and colours, and explain the trends observed for these and similar complexes. Although theoretical investigation identified magnetic-dipole-allowed excitations that are characteristic for temperature-independent paramagnetism (TIP), theory predicts the mol­ecules to be diamagnetic.

Using pulse transit delay in Z-scan to discriminate between excited-state absorption and other nonlinear processes in ZnO nanocones

We report a new approach that uses the single beam Z-scan technique, to discriminate between excited state absorption (ESA) and two and three photon nonlinear absorption. By measuring the apparent delay or advance of the pulse in reaching the detector, the nonlinear absorption can be unambiguously identified as either instantaneous or transient. The simple method does not require a large range of input fluences or sophisticated pulse-probe experimental apparatus. The technique is easily extended to any absorption process dependent on pulse width and to nonlinear refraction measurements. We demonstrate in particular, that the large nonlinear absorption in ZnO nanocones when exposed to nanosecond 532 nm pulses, is due mostly to ESA, not pure two-photon absorption.

Time-Dependent Density Functional Molecular Orbital and Excited State Calculations on Bis(porphyrinyl)butadiynes in the Monocationic, Neutral, Monoanionic, and Dianionic Oxidation States

We report a theoretical study of the multiple oxidation states (1+, 0, 1−, and 2−) of a meso,meso-linked diporphyrin, namely bis[10,15,20-triphenylporphyrinatozinc(II)-5-yl]butadiyne (4), using Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory (TDDFT). The origin of electronic transitions of singlet excited states is discussed in comparison to experimental spectra for the corresponding oxidation states of the close analogue bis{10,15,20-tris[3‘,5‘-di-tert-butylphenyl]porphyrinatozinc(II)-5-yl}butadiyne (3). The latter were measured in previous work under in situ spectroelectrochemical conditions. Excitation energies and orbital compositions of the excited states were obtained for these large delocalized aromatic radicals, which are unique examples of organic mixed-valence systems. The radical cations and anions of butadiyne-bridged diporphyrins such as 3 display characteristic electronic absorption bands in the near-IR region, which have been successfully predicted with use of these computational methods. The radicals are clearly of the “fully delocalized” or Class III type. The key spectral features of the neutral and dianionic states were also reproduced, although due to the large size of these molecules, quantitative agreement of energies with observations is not as good in the blue end of the visible region. The TDDFT calculations are largely in accord with a previous empirical model for the spectra, which was based simplistically on one-electron transitions among the eight key frontier orbitals of the C4 (1,4-butadiyne) linked diporphyrins.