Seasonality of suicide in Shandong China, 1991–2009 : associations with gender, age, area and methods of suicide

Backgrounds Whether suicide in China has significant seasonal variations is unclear. The aim of this study is to examine the seasonality of suicide in Shandong China and to assess the associations of suicide seasonality with gender, residence, age and methods of suicide. Methods Three types of tests (Chi-square, Edwards' T and Roger's Log method) were used to detect the seasonality of the suicide data extracted from the official mortality data of Shandong Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) system. Peak/low ratios (PLRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to indicate the magnitude of seasonality. Results A statistically significant seasonality with a single peak in suicide rates in spring and early summer, and a dip in winter was observed, which remained relatively consistent over years. Regardless of gender, suicide seasonality was more pronounced in rural areas, younger age groups and for non-violent methods, in particular, self-poisoning by pesticide. Conclusions There are statistically significant seasonal variations of completed suicide for both men and women in Shandong, China. Differences exist between residence (urban/rural), age groups and suicide methods. Results appear to support a sociological explanation of suicide seasonality.

Estimation on disease burden related to hepatitis B virus infection in Shandong province of China [山东省乙型肝炎病毒感染所致相关疾病的疾病负担研究]

Objective: To comprehensively measure the burden of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer in Shandong province, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the disease burden attribute to hepatitis B virus (HBV)infection. Methods: Based on the mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer derived from the third National Sampling Retrospective Survey for Causes of Death during 2004 and 2005, the incidence data of hepatitis B and the prevalence and the disability weights of liver cancer gained from the Shandong Cancer Prevalence Sampling Survey in 2007, we calculated the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and DALYs of three diseases following the procedures developed for the global burden of disease (GBD) study to ensure the comparability. Results: The total burden for hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 211 616 (39 377 YLLs and 172 239 YLDs), 16 783 (13 497 YLLs and 3286 YLDs) and 247 795 (240 236 YLLs and 7559 YLDs) DALYs in 2005 respectively, and men were 2.19, 2.36 and 3.16 times as that for women, respectively in Shandong province. The burden for hepatitis B was mainly because of disability (81.39%). However, most burden on liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were due to premature death (80.42% and 96.95%). The burden of each patient related to hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 4.8, 13.73 and 11.11 respectively. Conclusion: Hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer caused considerable burden to the people living in Shandong province, indicating that the control of hepatitis B virus infection would bring huge potential benefits.

Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

Principals’ and teacher leaders’ perceptions of their role and interaction under current Chinese reform : a case study in Shandong province

This study aims to explore the perceptions of principals and teacher leaders regarding their roles and the interaction between these roles in Chinese urban primary schools at the time of unprecedented curriculum reform. This involves a complexity of factors such as the influence of globalisation, the impact of traditional Chinese cultural attitudes towards education through Confucianism, and the implementation requirements of the current education reforms. All of these wider contextual factors help to shape the leadership practices that are described in the study. A qualitative exploratory case study approach has been utilised to undertake this investigation. The conceptual framework for this study draws upon scholars‘ work from Western countries but has been adapted in order to address three research questions for the study‘s focus on the context in Shandong province, Mainland China. Three research questions were addressed: First, what are principals‘ perceptions of their leadership roles in Mainland China under current educational reform? Second, what are teacher leaders‘ perceptions of their leadership roles in Mainland China under current educational reform? And finally, what are principals‘ and teacher leaders‘ perceptions of how their roles interact? With reference to the principals in the study, the findings confirm Gurr‘s (2008) comprehensive leadership model relating to four roles, specifically, learning and teaching, symbolic and cultural awareness, future orientation, and accountability. Significantly, some sub-roles that emerge from the data are uniquely Chinese. For example, school culture construction is a very deliberate process in which principals and their staff talked openly about and were involved in creating a positive school climate comprising spiritual, material, and system dimensions. Another finding relates to school feature construction. This refers to the process that principals and staff used to make their schools distinctive and different from other schools and included such features as the school‘s philosophy and the school-based curriculum. In seeking to understand the nature of teacher leadership in Chinese primary schools, this research confirms some findings identified in Western literature. For instance, teacher leaders in Shandong province were involved in decision-making, working with parents and community members, undertaking and planning professional development for staff, and mediating between colleagues (Day & Harris, 2002; Harrison & Killion, 2007; Leithwood, Jantzi, & Steinbach, 1999; Muijs & Harris, 2006; Smylie, 1992). However, some new aspects, such as a heightened awareness of the importance of accountability, emerge from this study. The study‘s conceptual framework also draws upon some significant insights from micropolitics and, in particular, two core constructs, namely cooperation and conflict (Blase, 1991), to explore the interactions between principals and teacher leaders. In this study, principals and teacher leaders employed exchange and facilitation as two strategies in cooperative processes; and they adopted enforcement and compromise in conflictive processes. Finally, the study‘s findings indicate that principals and teacher leaders were developing new ways of interacting in response to the requirements of significant education reform. Most principals were exercising their power through (Blase, 1991) their teacher leaders who in turn, were working in alignment with their principals to achieve the desired outcomes in schools. It was significant that this form of 'parallel leadership' (Crowther, Ferguson, & Ham, 2009) characterised the teacher leadership roles at this period of change to the curriculum in Mainland China.

Suicide rates in Shandong, China, 1991–2010 : rapid decrease in rural rates and steady increase in male–female ratio

Background China has one of the highest suicide rates in the world; however, the recent trends in suicide have not been adequately studied. This study aimed to examine the potential changes in the rates and characteristics in a Chinese population. Methods Data on suicide deaths in 1991–2010 were extracted from the Shandong Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) mortality dataset based on ICD-10 codes. The temporal trend in age-adjusted suicide rates for each subpopulation was tested using log-linear Poisson regression analysis. Results From 1991 to 2010, there was a marked decrease in the overall suicide rate in Shandong, with an average reduction of 8% per year. The decrease trend was stronger in rural than in urban areas and more evident in females than in males. Similar decreases were observed for all age groups. Pesticide ingestion and hanging remained the top two methods for suicide. Limitations There are likely quality concerns in the morality data, such as underreporting and misclassification, as well as low accuracy in determining the underlying causes of deaths. The representativeness of the DSP system may also be problematic due to the rapid changes in economy and demography. Conclusions Completed suicides in Shandong have sharply declined over the past 20 years. Higher rates in females versus males and in rural versus urban areas, which were previously considered to be distinguishing features of suicide in China, are becoming less pronounced.

Cause of Death, Trend and Disease Burden in Shandong Province, China : the Third Retrospective Sampling Survey of Cause of Death Report

This book describes the mortality for all causes of death and the trend in major causes of death since 1970s in Shandong Province, China.

Measuring the burden of disease in Shandong province : an adoption of the disability-adjusted life year [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省居民疾病负担]

Objective To estimate the burden of diseases in Shandong province by the means of DALY (Disability- adjusted life year) thus to investigate the key public health problems referencing for health policy making. Methods DALYs were calculated following the procedures developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to ensure comparability. We measured YLLs using the mortality data of 19 Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) in Shandong Province during 2000 and 2005. YLDs were estimated based on data for WPRO in the 2002 GBD study published by WHO. Results During this period, the average DALYs loss by all causes for the residents of DSPs in Shandong was 149.74 per thousand persons each year. Noncommunicable diseases accounted for 76.63% of the disability adjusted life years, communicable diseases and other disorders represented 14.13%, and injuries 9.24%. Nearly half of the DALYs (45%) happened among the elderly (60+). Malignant neoplasm was the number one cause of DALYs loss in the male, followed by neuropsychiatric disorder, injury, cerebrovascular disease, heart disease，etc. However, neuropsychiatric disorder possessed the largest single contributor to DALY in the female and followed by heart disease, malignant neoplasm, cerebrovascular disease and respiratory disease. Conclusion Non-communicable diseases such as circulatory diseases, neuropsychiatric disorders and malignant neoplasms were the main causes of disease burden in Shandong province. The importance of neuropsychiatric disorders was more striking and should be recognized properly. The lack of morbidity data is the main limitation of this study. Abstract in Chinese 目的 应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省居民疾病负担,提出该地区主要卫生问题,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以山东省2000-2005年19个疾病监测点的死因监测资料为基础,利用世界卫生组织(WHO)提供的方法计算不同疾病在不同性别年龄人群所造成的伤残调整寿命年(DALYs),其中,YIJDs根据WHO公布的亚太区2002年疾病负担数据进行估算. 结果 2000-2005年山东省疾病监测系统居民因为早死和残疾年平均损失149.74个DALYs/千人,其中,76.6%的DALYs损失因慢性非传染性疾病所致,14.1%由传染性疾病等引起,9.2%因为意外伤害造成;接近1/2(45%)的DALYs损失发生在60岁以上人群;恶性肿瘤为造成男性居民DALYs损失的首位原因,其次为精神行为疾患、意外伤害、脑血管病和心脏病等,女性居民则以精神行为疾患为DALYs首位原因,其次为心脏病、恶性肿瘤、脑血管病和呼吸系统疾病. 结论 以循环系统疾病、精神行为疾惠和恶性肿瘤为首的慢性非传染性疾病为造成山东省疾病负担DALYs损失的主要原因.对于精神行为疾患的重要性的认识有待于进一步提高,研究的主要局限性在于发病率资料的缺乏.

Estimating the Burden of Malignant Neoplasm in Shandong Province [山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担研究]

Objective To make a comprehensive estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasm in Shandong province by the means of disability- adjusted life year (DALY) for the first time. Methods DALYs were calculated following the procedures developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to ensure comparability. We measured YLLs using the cancer mortality data of 19 Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) in Shandong Province during 2000 and 2005. YLDs were estimated based on the cancer morbidity data of 6 Cancer Incidence Surveillance Points in Shandong Province in 2005. Results All cancers were responsible for 20.60 DALYs for every thousand population in Shandong Province (25.30 for men and 15.74 for women) . 94.3% of the losses were due to premature death and 5.7% to disability. 31.9% of the DALYs happened among 45~59 age group. The top 10 cancers for DALYs were lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, oesophagus cancer, colon/rectum cancer, breast cancer, leukemia, brain cancer, pancreas cancer and cervix uteri cancer in turn. The burden of major cancers such as lung cancer and liver cancer in Shandong were heavier than the global and national level. Conclusions he burden of disease of malignant neoplasm is mainly because of premature death. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and oesophagus cancer are the major cancers in Shandong Province and should be paid more attention to their prevention and control. Abstract in Chinese 目的 首次应用伤残调整寿命年(DALY)对山东省居民恶性肿瘤疾病负担进行综合评价. 方法 以2000-2005年山东省疾病监测系统的恶性肿瘤死亡资料和2005年山东省恶性肿瘤发病监测系统的发病资料为基础,利用世界卫生组织提供的专门公式,计算恶性肿瘤的YLLs、YLDs和DALYs,以此评价恶性肿瘤的疾病负担. 结果 山东省每千人每年因恶性肿瘤造成20.60个DALYs损失(男性25.30,女性15.74),其中,9413%为早死所致,5.7%因残疾所致:恶性肿瘤主要导致45～59岁人群的DALYs损失,占31.93%;恶性肿瘤疾病负担前10位依次为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食道癌、肠癌、乳腺癌、白血病、脑癌、胰腺癌和宫颈癌;山东省肺癌、肝癌等主要癌症疾病负担高于全球和全国水平. 结论 恶性肿瘤疾病负担主要由早死所致,肺癌、肝癌、胃癌和食道癌等主要癌症的防制地位十分突出.

An Analysis of Cancer Patients' Survival and Influent Factors from 1993 to 1999 in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县1993~1999年恶性肿瘤患者的生存率及其影响因素分析]

To understand the survival status of cancer patients and influencing factors, an analysis was undertaken using data of 6450 cancer patients living in Linqu County, Shandong, diagnosed between 1993 and 1999. Survival rates were calculated using life table method with SAS 9.0 software. Overall 1-5 year survival rates for all patients were 53.16%, 28.65%, 21.57%, 18.36% and 17.87%, respectively. Cancers with a 5-year survival rate over 25% included ovarium, breast, uterus, stomach and colorectal cancers. Cancers with a 5-year survival lower than 10% were cancers on liver, cervical, lung and bones.Survival rates differed significantly across gender, age of onset, economic status, year of diagnosis and evidence of diagnosis. Patients' economic status, age of diagnosis and year of diagnosis seem to have strong effects on survival. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤患者生存现状,探讨影响生存率的因素. [方法] 对临朐县1993～1999年发病的6450例肿瘤患者的生存资料进行分析,利用SAS9.0软件寿命表法计算生存率. [结果] 临朐县1993～1999年的恶性肿瘤患者1～5年生存率分别为53.16%、28.65%、21.57%、18.36%和17.87%,5年生存率超过25%的恶性肿瘤有卵巢癌、乳腺癌、宫体癌、胃癌、结直肠癌,5年生存率低于10%的有肝癌、宫颈癌、肺癌、骨恶性肿瘤.不同性别、发病年龄、经济状况、诊断时间和诊断依据的恶性肿瘤生存率有显著性差异. [结论] 患者经济条件、诊断年龄和诊断时间影响恶性肿瘤生存率.

An analysis on trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu County, Shandong Province [山东省临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与 死亡趋势分析]

Purpose To investigate the trend of malignancies incidence and mortality in Linqu county, and to provide scientific evidence for the government to design and adjust polices on cancer prevention and control. [Methods] The cancer registration data of new cases from 1995 to 2004 and death cases from 1998 to 2004 were used to analyse the incidence and mortality and the trend in Linqu county. Results Cancer general incidence significantly increased from 1995 to 2004 (P<0.05). The increasing speed incidence in male was faster than that in female. The incidence of lung cancer, colon/rectum cancer and pancreas cancer increased significantly (P<0.05), especially of lung cancer with an acceleration incidence rate of 2.12/100,000 peryear in average. The general mortality increased gradually from 1998 to 2004 with no significance (P>0.05). Both incidence and mortality in population aged 80 or over increased significantly (P<0.05). Conclusion The cancer incidence is rising during recent 10 years , and the prevention and control for lung cancer are getting increasingly important. [目的] 了解临朐县恶性肿瘤发病与死亡趋势,为政府制订和调整防治对策提供科学依据. [方法] 利用临朐县1995～2004年恶性肿瘤发病登记资料和1998～2004年的死亡登记资料,计算各种癌症发病率和死亡率,并做趋势分析. [结果] 1995～2004年临朐县恶性肿瘤总发病率呈明显上升趋势(P＜0.05),男性发病率上升速度高于女性.肺癌、肠癌、胰腺癌发病率上升显著(P＜0.05),以肺癌最为迅速(年均升高2.12/10万).1998～2004年恶性肿瘤总死亡率略有上升,但无显著性(P＞0.05);80岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤发病率与死亡率均呈上升趋势. [结论] 临朐县恶性肿瘤发病率近10年来呈现上升趋势,肺癌防治地位日益突出.

Principle components analysis with covariance matrix on regional differences for mortality and percentages of cancers in Shandong province [山东省恶性肿瘤死亡率和构成比地区差异协方差矩阵主成分分析]

Objective To explore the characteristics of regional distribution of cancer deaths in Shandong Province with the principle components analysis. Methods The principle components analysis with co-variance matrix for age-adjusted mortality rates and percentages of 20 types of cancer in 22 counties （cities） were carried out using SAS Software. Results Over 90% of the total information could be reflected by the top 3 principle components and the first principle component alone represented more than half of the overall regional variances. The first component mainly reflected the area differences of esophageal cancer. The second component mainly reflected the area differences of lung cancer， stomach cancer and liver cancer. The value of the first principal component scores showed a clear trend that the west areas possessed higher values and the east the lower values. Based on the top two components，the 22 counties （cities） could be divided into several geographical clusters. Conclusion The overall difference of regional distribution of cancers in Shandong is dominated by several major cancers including esophageal cancer， lung cancer， stomach cancer and liver cancer. Among them，esophageal cancer makes the largest contribution. If the range of counties （cities） analyzed could be further widened， the characteristics of regional distribution of cancer mortality would be better examined. Abstract in Chinese 目的 利用主成分分析探讨山东省恶性肿瘤死亡的地区分布特征. 方法 利用SAS软件对山东省22个县市区2004～2006午的20种恶性肿瘤标化死亡率和构成比分别进行协方差矩阵主成分分析. 结果 前3个主成分就反映了总体差异90%以上的信息,其中仅第1主成分就提供了总体差异一半以上的信息.第1主成分主要反映了食管癌的地区差异,第2主成分主要反映肺癌的地区差异,兼顾胃癌和肝癌.各地区第1主成分得分呈现西高东低的趋势,根据第1和第2主成分可以将调查地区分为若干类别,表现为明显的地理聚集性. 结论 山东省各地区恶性肿瘤死亡的总体差异主要取决于少数高发肿瘤,包括食管癌、肺癌、胃癌、肝癌等,其中以食管癌地位最为突出.如能进一步扩大分析范围,可更好地查明恶性肿瘤死亡的地区特征.

Economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担分析]

Objective: To evaluate the economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main sources for this study were the data from the third sampling survey of death cause in 2006 and cancer prevalence survey in 2007 in Shandong province. The direct medical cost was calculated based on the survey data. The indirect cost due to mortality and morbidity were estimated with human capital approach based on the data of disability-adjusted life years derived from the two surveys and gross domestic product (GDP) data. The total economic burden was the sum of direct medical cost and indirect cost. The uncertainty analysis was conducted according to the methodology in global burden of disease study. Results: The total cost of cancer in Shandong province in 2006 estimated was 18 057 million Yuan RMB (95% confidence interval:16 817 － 19 393 million), which accounted for 0. 83% of the total GDP. The direct medical cost，indirect mortality cost and indirect morbidity cost accounted for 17.28%, 78.53%, and 4.20% of total economic burden of malignant neoplasms, respectively. Liver，lung and stomach cancer were the top three tumors with heavier economic burden, with accounted for more than one half (57. 83%) of the total economic burden of all cancers. The uncertainty of total burden estimated was around ± 7%, which mainly derived from the uncertainty of indirect economic burden. Conclusion: The influence of cancers on social economy is dominated by the loss of productivity, especially by the productivity loss due to premature death. Liver, lung and stomach cancer are the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong province. Abstract in Chinese 目的 评价山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以2006年山东省第3次死因回顾抽样凋查资料和2007年山东省恶性肿瘤现患状况抽样调查资料为基础,测算全省直接医疗成本;采用人力资本法测算死亡间接负担和伤残间接负担;参考全球疾病负担研究的方法对测算结果的不确定性进行分析. 结果 2006年山东省因恶性肿瘤导致的总经济负担为180.57亿元(95%CI=16 817～19 393),占全省GDP总量的0.83%,其中直接医疗成本占总负担的17.28%,死亡造成的间接经济负担占78.53%,伤残所致间接经济负担占4.20%;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌为山东省经济负担最重的3种恶性肿瘤,总经济负担合计占全部恶性肿瘤的57.83%;总经济负担估计结果的不确定性范围在±7%左右,主要取决于间接经济负担的不确定性. 结论 恶性肿瘤对社会经济的影响主要通过生产力的损失产生作用,并以死亡所致生产力损失为主;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌应是山东省恶性肿瘤预防控制的重点.

Estimation of disability weights on malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省现患恶性肿瘤残疾权重的测量]

Objective To determine stage-specific and average disability weights (DWs) of malignant neoplasm and provide support and evidence for study on burden of cancer and policy development in Shandong province. Methods Health status of each cancer patient identified during the cancer prevalence survey in Shandong, 2007 was investigated. In line with the GBD methodology in estimating DWs, the disability extent of every case was classified and evaluated according to the Six-class Disability Classification version and then the stage-specific weights and average DWs with their 95 % confidence intervals were calculated, using SAS software. Results A total of 11 757 cancer cases were investigated and evaluated. DWs of specific stage of therapy, remission, metastasis and terminal of all cancers were 0.310, 0.218, 0.450 and 0.653 respectively. The average DW of all cancers was 0.317(95 % CI:0.312-0.321). Weights of different stage and different cancer varied significantly, while no significant differences were found between males and females. DWs were found higher (>0.4) for liver cancer, bone cancer, lymphoma and pancreas cancer. Lower DWs (<0.3) were found for breast cancer, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, ovarian cancer, larynx cancer, mouth and oropharynx cancer. Conclusion Stage-specific and average DWs for various cancers were estimated based on a large sample size survey. The average DWs of 0.317 for all cancers indicated that 1/3 healthy year lost for each survived life year of them. The difference of DWs between different cancer and stage provide scientific evidence for cancer prevention strategy development. Abstract in Chinese 目的 测算各种恶性肿瘤的分病程残疾权重和平均残疾权重,为山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担研究及肿瘤防治对策制定提供参考依据. 方法 在山东省2007年恶性肿瘤现患调查中对所有恶性肿瘤患者的健康状况进行调查,参考全球疾病负担研究的方法 ,利用六级社会功能分级标准对患者残疾状况进行分级和赋值,分别计算20种恶性肿瘤的分病程残疾权重和平均残疾权重及其95%CI. 结果 共调查恶性肿瘤患者11757例,所有恶性肿瘤治疗期、恢复期、转移期和晚期的残疾权重分别为0.310、0.218、0.450和0.653,平均残疾权重为0.317(95%CI:0.312～0.321).不同恶性肿瘤和不同病程阶段的残疾权重差别显著,性别间差异无统计学意义.肝癌、骨癌、淋巴瘤和胰腺癌平均残疾权重较高(>0.4),乳腺癌、子宫体癌、子宫颈癌、卵巢癌、喉癌和口咽部癌症相对较低(<0.3). 结论 山东省恶性肿瘤平均残疾权重为0.317,即恶性肿瘤患者每存活1年平均损失近1/3个健康生命年;不同恶性肿瘤和不同病程阶段的残疾权重差别为肿瘤防治对策的制定具有重要意义.

Changes of mortality and causes of death from 1970 to 2005 and decomposition analysis in Shandong province [山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率极死因变化与差别分解分析]

Objective To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005,and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors. Methods Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s,but had increased since 1990s.However,both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group Ⅰ diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs)including cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group Ⅰ disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole. Demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors. Conclusion Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group Ⅰ diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 - 2007 in Shandong province, China [山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B, mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 - 2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27.32 per 100 000 persons and a decreased trend for the 0-9 years old children. At the same time, the adjusted mortality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased trend and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17.55 /100 000 in 1990 to 4.01 /100 000 in 2007. The mortality of liver cancer was stable during this time (P = 0. 9998). Conclusion Immunization of hepatitis B vaccine may have lowered the incidence of hepatitis B in the target population and the overall mortality rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Abstract in Chinese 目的 了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考. 方法 根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析. 结果 1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437 094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势.乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万.肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.999 8). 结论 做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率.