Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10−8). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Directional dominance on stature and cognition in diverse human populations

Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders1, and Darwin was one of the first to recognize that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness2. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness that is common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power3, 4. Here we use runs of homozygosity to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts, and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in one second, general cognitive ability and educational attainment (P < 1 × 10−300, 2.1 × 10−6, 2.5 × 10−10 and 1.8 × 10−10, respectively). In each case, increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months’ less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing evidence that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples5, 6, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection7, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been.

The culture of the Christian school

In discussions of educational administration theory, school culture has emerged as a contentious construct characterized by polarized positions. The underlying tensions are between conflicting structuralist and post-structuralist perspectives. These have led to views of Christian school culture and school organization as being either, on the one hand, static, positivist, hierarchical, individualistic and capitalistic or, on the other, dynamic, coherentist, communally interdependent, service oriented and Christ-centered. All schools demonstrate an ethos or organizational culture by default if not by design. It is therefore imperative for Christian school administrators, educators, and the community to consciously define the aspects of school culture that reflect the shared biblical values of the Christian school community.

Shadowlands (Directed by Caroline Heim)

The controversial love affair of CS Lewis, Oxford scholar and writer of the Narnia Chronicles, is set in a constellation of music, sculpture and mime. CS Lewis’s intriguing relationship with poet Joy Davidman moves, inspires and confronts us with the big questions. Beauty contrasts with the ephemeral land of the shadows. Crossbow’s adaption of William Nicholson’s soulful and witty play explores the joy and the grief of “experience: that most brutal of teachers.” Showcasing the abilities of Brisbane and Sydney actors, the company that brought you The Miracle Worker and Anne of the Thousand Days, will quicken your senses and stir your heart with Shadowlands. All performances have a tactile tour of the stage 20 minutes before the start time of the show. Special signed performance for hearing impaired patrons Thur 5 Aug 2pm

Process mining manifesto

Process mining techniques are able to extract knowledge from event logs commonly available in today’s information systems. These techniques provide new means to discover, monitor, and improve processes in a variety of application domains. There are two main drivers for the growing interest in process mining. On the one hand, more and more events are being recorded, thus, providing detailed information about the history of processes. On the other hand, there is a need to improve and support business processes in competitive and rapidly changing environments. This manifesto is created by the IEEE Task Force on Process Mining and aims to promote the topic of process mining. Moreover, by defining a set of guiding principles and listing important challenges, this manifesto hopes to serve as a guide for software developers, scientists, consultants, business managers, and end-users. The goal is to increase the maturity of process mining as a new tool to improve the (re)design, control, and support of operational business processes.

The macrophage-inducible C-type lectin, Mincle, is an essential component of the innate immune response to Candida albicans

The recognition of carbohydrate moieties by cells of the innate immune system is emerging as an essential element in antifungal immunity, but despite the number and diversity of lectins expressed by innate immune cells, few carbohydrate receptors have been characterized. Mincle, a C-type lectin, is expressed predominantly on macrophages, and is here shown to play a role in macrophage responses to the yeast Candida albicans. After exposure to the yeast in vitro, Mincle localized to the phagocytic cup, but it was not essential for phagocytosis. In the absence of Mincle, production of TNF-_ by macrophages was reduced, both in vivo and in vitro. In addition, mice lacking Mincle showed a significantly increased susceptibility to systemic candidiasis. Thus, Mincle plays a novel and nonredundant role in the induction of inflammatory signaling in response to C. albicans infection.

The internet of services and USDL

A prominent research focus, especially in the context of EU public funding, has been the systematic use of the Internet for new ways of value creation in the services sector. This idea of service networks in the Internet, frequently dubbed the Internet of Services or Web service ecosystems, wants to make services tradable in digital media. In order to enable communication and trade between providers and consumers of services, the Internet of Services requires a standard that creates a "commercial envelope" around a service. This is where the Unified Service Description Language (USDL) comes into play as a normative and balanced unification of service information. The unified description established by USDL is machine-processable, considers technical and business aspects of a service as well as functional and non-functional attributes.

Grandiflora : Recent Paintings by Daniel Mafe

Grandiflora: Recent Paintings by Daniel Mafe The paintings of Grandiflora are improvised around a range of different flower motifs culled from medieval textiles and botanical illustrations. Each of the paintings is constructed upon a ground of flat, palely luminous yellow occasionally supplemented by additional areas of high-keyed pastel. Pink, blue, green and mauve together with the yellow, generate a shimmering and even incandescent glow. The graphic images of the flowers with the flat colour areas are then contrasted and worked over with richly sensual, abstract gestures of paint. Within the work there is a pronounced almost rococo-esque opticality as it operates between these different visual codes of flat colour, recognizable floral forms, and gesture. These codes combine to produce a definite visceral impact on the viewer, a pronounced and tactile sense of the experience and ambiguity inherent in perceiving. This ambiguity is interestingly at odds with the apparently clean and crisp quality each painting demonstrates as an integrated whole. Indeed each piece goes on to reveal, despite the use of overt figurative quotations, a sense of the purely abstract which in its turn concretely establishes the ornamental.

A lightweight biometric signature scheme for user authentication over networks

We introduce a lightweight biometric solution for user authentication over networks using online handwritten signatures. The algorithm proposed is based on a modified Hausdorff distance and has favorable characteristics such as low computational cost and minimal training requirements. Furthermore, we investigate an information theoretic model for capacity and performance analysis for biometric authentication which brings additional theoretical insights to the problem. A fully functional proof-of-concept prototype that relies on commonly available off-the-shelf hardware is developed as a client-server system that supports Web services. Initial experimental results show that the algorithm performs well despite its low computational requirements and is resilient against over-the-shoulder attacks.

"They did not believe me" : Adult survivors' perspectives of child sexual abuse by personnel in Christian Institutions

Executive Summary Child sexual abuse (CSA) in Christian Institutions continues to be of serious concern in public, criminal justice and institutional discourse. This study was conducted in conjunction with Project Kidsafe Foundation and sought the perspectives of Australian survivors of CSA by Personnel in Christian Institutions (PICIs). In total, 81 individual survivors responded to an online survey which asked them a range of questions about their current and childhood life circumstance; the nature, extent and location of abuse; grooming strategies utilised by perpetrators; their experiences of disclosure; and outcomes of official reporting to both criminal justice agencies and also official processes Christian institutions. Survey participants were given the option to further participate in a qualitative interview with the principal researcher. These interviews are not considered within this report. In summary, survey data examined here indicate that: • Instances of abuse included a range of offences from touching outside of clothing to serious penetrative offences. • The onset of abuse occurred at a young age: between 6 and 10 years for most female participants, and 11 and 13 years for male participants. • In the majority of cases the abuse ceased because of actions by survivors, not by adults within families or the Christian institution. • Participants waited significant time before disclosing their abuse, with many waiting 20 years or more. • Where survivors disclosed to family members or PICIs, they were often met with disbelief and unhelpful responses aimed at minimising the harm. • Where an official report was made, it was most often made to police. In these cases 53% resulted in an official investigations. • The primary reasons for reporting were to protect others from the perpetrator and make the Christian institution accountable to an external agency. • Where reports to Christian institutions were made, most survivors were dissatisfied with outcomes, and a smaller majority was extremely dissatisfied. This report reflects the long-held understanding that responding to CSA is a complex and difficult task. If effective and meaningful responses are not made, however, trauma to the survivor is most often compounded and recovery delayed. This report demonstrates the need for further independent analysis and oversight of responses made to CSA by both criminal justice, religious and social institutions. Meaningful change will only be accessible, however, if family, community and institutional environments are safe places for survivors to disclose their experiences of abuse and begin to seek ways of healing. There is much to be learnt from survivors that have already made this journey.

Identity, forgiveness and power in the management of child sexual abuse by personnel in Christian Institutions

The ongoing crises of child sexual abuse by Christian institutions leaders across the Anglophone world continue to attract public attention and public inquiries. The pervasiveness of this issue lends credence to the argument that the prevailing ethos functioning within some Christian Institutions is one which exercises influence to repeatedly mismanage allegations of child sexual abuse by Church leaders. This work draws on semistructured interviews conducted with 15 Personnel in Christian Institutions (PICIs) in Australia who were identified as being pro-active in their approach to addressing child sexual abuse by PICIs. From these data, themes of power and forgiveness are explored through a Foucaultian conceptualising of pastoral power and ‘truth’ construction. Forgiveness is viewed as a discourse which can have the power effect of either silencing or empowering victim/survivors. The study concludes that individual PICIs’ understandings of the role ofpower in their praxis influences outcomes from the deployment of forgiveness.

Genome-wide association study reveals three susceptibility loci for common migraine in the general population

Migraine is a common, heterogeneous and heritable neurological disorder. Its pathophysiology is incompletely understood, and its genetic influences at the population level are unknown. In a population-based genome-wide analysis including 5,122 migraineurs and 18,108 non-migraineurs, rs2651899 (1p36.32, PRDM16), rs10166942 (2q37.1, TRPM8) and rs11172113 (12q13.3, LRP1) were among the top seven associations (P < 5 × 10(-6)) with migraine. These SNPs were significant in a meta-analysis among three replication cohorts and met genome-wide significance in a meta-analysis combining the discovery and replication cohorts (rs2651899, odds ratio (OR) = 1.11, P = 3.8 × 10(-9); rs10166942, OR = 0.85, P = 5.5 × 10(-12); and rs11172113, OR = 0.90, P = 4.3 × 10(-9)). The associations at rs2651899 and rs10166942 were specific for migraine compared with non-migraine headache. None of the three SNP associations was preferential for migraine with aura or without aura, nor were any associations specific for migraine features. TRPM8 has been the focus of neuropathic pain models, whereas LRP1 modulates neuronal glutamate signaling, plausibly linking both genes to migraine pathophysiology.