Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Robust multidisciplinary UAS design optimisation

There are many applications in aeronautical/aerospace engineering where some values of the design parameters states cannot be provided or determined accurately. These values can be related to the geometry(wingspan, length, angles) and or to operational flight conditions that vary due to the presence of uncertainty parameters (Mach, angle of attack, air density and temperature, etc.). These uncertainty design parameters cannot be ignored in engineering design and must be taken into the optimisation task to produce more realistic and reliable solutions. In this paper, a robust/uncertainty design method with statistical constraints is introduced to produce a set of reliable solutions which have high performance and low sensitivity. Robust design concept coupled with Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) is defined by applying two statistical sampling formulas; mean and variance/standard deviation associated with the optimisation fitness/objective functions. The methodology is based on a canonical evolution strategy and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology, parallel computing and asynchronous evaluation. It is implemented for two practical Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) design problems; the flrst case considers robust multi-objective (single disciplinary: aerodynamics) design optimisation and the second considers a robust multidisciplinary (aero structures) design optimisation. Numerical results show that the solutions obtained by the robust design method with statistical constraints have a more reliable performance and sensitivity in both aerodynamics and structures when compared to the baseline design.

The microRNA expression signature on modified titanium implant surfaces influences genetic mechanisms leading to osteogenic differentiation

Topographically and chemically modified titanium implants are recognized to have improved osteogenic properties; however, the molecular regulation of this process remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the microRNA profile and the potential regulation of osteogenic differentiation following early exposure of osteoprogenitor cells to sand-blasted, large-grit acid-etched (SLA) and hydrophilic SLA (modSLA) surfaces. Firstly, the osteogenic characteristics of the primary osteoprogenitor cells were confirmed using ALP activity and Alizarin Red S staining. The effect of smooth (SMO), SLA and modSLA surfaces on the TGF-β/BMP (BMP2, BMP6, ACVR1) and non-canonical WNT/Ca2+ (WNT5A, FZD6) pathways, as well as the integrins ITGB1 and ITGA2, was determined. It was revealed that the modified titanium surfaces could induce the activation of TGF-β/BMP and non-canonical WNT/Ca2+ signaling genes. The expression pattern of microRNAs (miRNAs) related to cell differentiation was evaluated. Statistical analysis of the differentially regulated miRNAs indicated that 35 and 32 miRNAs were down-regulated on the modSLA and SLA surfaces respectively, when compared with the smooth surface (SMO). Thirty-one miRNAs that were down-regulated were common to both modSLA and SLA. There were 10 miRNAs up-regulated on modSLA and nine on SLA surfaces, amongst which eight were the same as observed on modSLA. TargetScan predictions for the down-regulated miRNAs revealed genes of the TGF-β/BMP and non-canonical Ca2+ pathways as targets. This study demonstrated that modified titanium implant surfaces induce differential regulation of miRNAs, which potentially regulate the TGF-β/BMP and WNT/Ca2+ pathways during osteogenic differentiation on modified titanium implant surfaces.

Misericordiae Antemortem - The 1955 Mount Superbus Crash

On the 9th April 1955, RAAF Lincoln Bomber A73-64, on a mercy flight to transfer a critically ill infant from Townsville to Brisbane, crashed at Mount Superbus killing the four crew and two civilians on board. The immediate search and rescue was organised by a group of Brisbane bushwalkers who were camping in the area. Police and RAAF personnel subsequently joined the civilians at the crash site to recover the victims. During their initial search of the crash they located what were believed to be the remains of five adults. The arrival of the RAAF Senior Medical Officer (SMO) the following day revealed that only four adult bodies had been found and the bodies of both civilians, an adult and infant, were missing. Later that day the remains of six victims were recovered from the crash site and conveyed to the Warwick Police Station for identification. The RAAF SMO was responsible for the identifications of the aircrew while the Government Medical Officer, police and coroner were responsible for the identifications of the civilians. Eight days later, further remains of the infant were found by a civilian looking through the wreckage. This paper uses archival records not previously researched from a Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) perspective to stimulate interest among forensic practitioners, criminologists and other interested parties in the history of DVI and how practices in Australia have evolved.

Pulling apart the mid to late Cenozoic magmatic record of the Gulf of California : no room for the Comondú Arc

Understanding the link between tectonic-driven extensional faulting and volcanism is crucial from a hazard perspective in active volcanic environments, while ancient volcanic successions provide records on how volcanic eruption styles, compositions, magnitudes and frequencies can change in response to extension timing, distribution and intensity. Significantly, incorrect tectonic interpretations can be made when the spatial-temporal-compositional trends of, and source contributions to magmatism are not properly considered. This study draws on intimate relationships of volcanism and extension preserved in the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) and Gulf of California (GoC) regions of western Mexico. Here, a major Oligocene rhyolitic ignimbrite “flare-up” (>300,000 km3) switched to a dominantly bimodal and mixed effusive-explosive volcanic phase in the Early Miocene (~100,000 km3), associated with distributed extension and opening of numerous grabens. Rhyolitic dome fields were emplaced along graben edges and at intersections of cross-graben and graben-parallel structures during early stages of graben development. Concomitant with this change in rhyolite eruption style was a change in crustal source as revealed by zircon chronochemistry with rapid rates of rhyolite magma generation due to remelting of mid- to upper crustal, highly differentiated igneous rocks emplaced during earlier SMO magmatism. Extension became more focused ~18 Ma resulting in volcanic activity being localised along the site of GoC opening. This localised volcanism (known as the Comondú “arc”) was dominantly effusive and andesite-dacite in composition. This compositional change resulted from increased mixing of basaltic and rhyolitic magmas rather than fluid flux melting of the mantle wedge above the subducting Guadalupe Plate. A poor understanding of space-time relationships of volcanism and extension has thus led to incorrect past tectonic interpretations of Comondú-age volcanism.

25 million years to break a continent : early to middle Miocene rifting and syn-extensional magmatism in the southern Gulf of California

Cenozoic extension in western Mexico has been divided into two episodes separated by the change from convergence to oblique divergence at the plate boundary. The Gulf Extensional Province is thought to have started once subduction ended at ~12.5 Ma whereas early extension is classified as Basin and Range. Mid-Miocene volcanism of the Comondú group has been considered as a subduction-related arc, whereas post ~12.5 Ma volcanism would be extension-related. Our new integration of the continental onshore and offshore geology of the south-east Gulf region, backed by tens of Ar-Ar and U-Pb ages and geochemical studies, document an early-mid Miocene rifting and extension-related bimodal to andesitic magmatism prior to subduction termination. Between ~21 and 11 Ma a system of NNW-SSE high-angle extensional faults rifted the western side of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) ignimbrite plateau. In Nayarit, rhyolitic domes and some basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 18-17 Ma. These rocks show strong antecrystic inheritance but an absence of Mesozoic and older xenocrysts, suggesting a genesis in the mid-upper crust triggered by extension-induced basaltic influx. In Sinaloa, large grabens were floored by huge dome complexes at ~21-17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated at 15 Ma. Mid-Miocene volcanism, including the largely volcaniclastic Comondú strata in Baja California, was thus emplaced in rift basins and appears associated to decompression melting rather than subduction. Along the coast, flat-lying basaltic lava flows dated at 11-10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here crustal thickness is 25-20 Km, almost half that in the core of the SMO, implying significant lithosphere stretching before ~11 Ma. This mafic pulse, with relatively high Ti but still clear Nb-Ta negative spikes, may be related to the detachment of the lower part of the subducted slab, allowing asthenosphere to flow into parts of the mantle previously fluxed by subduction fluids. Very uniform OIB-like lavas appear in late Pliocene and Pleistocene, only 18 m.y. after the onset of rifting and ~9 m.y. after the end of subduction. Our study shows that rifting began much earlier than Late Miocene and progressively overwhelmed subduction in generating magmatism.

Late Oligocene to middle Miocene rifting and syn-extensional magmatism in the southwestern Sierra Madre occidental, Mexico: the beginning of the Gulf of California rift

Although Basin and Range style extension affected several areas of western Mexico since the Late Eocene, extension in the Gulf of California region (the Gulf Extensional Province GEP) is thought to have started as subduction waned and ended at ~14 12.5 Ma. A general consensus also exists in considering the mid Miocene Comondú group as a suprasubduction volcanic arc. Our new integration of the geology of the south east Gulf region, backed by 43 new Ar Ar and U Pb mineral ages and geochemical studies, document a widespread phase of extension in the southern GEP between latest Oligocene and Early Miocene that subsequently focused in the region of the future Gulf in the Middle Miocene. Upper Oligocene to Lower Miocene rocks across the southern Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO)(northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa) were affected by major ~N S to NNW striking normal faults prior to ~21 Ma. Then, between ~21 and 11 Ma, a system of NNW-SSE high angle extensional faults continued extending the southwestern side of the SMO. Rhyolitic domes, shallow intrusive bodies, and lesser basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 20-17 Ma. In northern Sinaloa, large grabens were floored by huge dome complexes at ~21-17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated at 15-14 Ma, a setting and timing very similar to Sonora. Early to Middle Miocene volcanism, including the largely volcaniclastic Comondú strata in Baja California Sur, was thus emplaced in rift basins and was likely associated to decompression melting of upper mantle (inducing crustal partial melting) rather than to fluxing by fluids from the young subducting plate. Along the Nayarit and Sinaloa coast, flatlying basaltic lava flows dated at 11-10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here, crustal thickness is almost half that in the unextended core of the SMO, implying significant lithosphere stretching before ~11 Ma. Our study shows that rifting began much earlier than Late Miocene and provided a fundamental control on the style and composition of volcanism from at least 30 Ma. We envision a sustained period of lithospheric stretching and magmatism during which the pace and breadth of extension changed at ~20-18 Ma to be narrower and likely more rapid, and again at ~12.5 Ma, when the kinematics of rifting became more oblique.

Consequences of extensional tectonics on volcanic eruption style, compositions and source regions : new insights from the southern Sierra Madre Occidental and Gulf of California regions, western Mexico

Understanding the link between tectonic-driven extensional faulting and volcanism is crucial from a hazard perspective in active volcanic environments, while ancient volcanic successions provide records on how volcanic eruption styles, compositions, magnitudes and frequencies can change in response to extension timing, distribution and intensity. This study draws on intimate relationships of volcanism and extension preserved in the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) and Gulf of California (GoC) regions of western Mexico. Here, a major Oligocene rhyolitic ignimbrite “flare-up” (>300,000 km3) switched to a dominantly bimodal and mixed effusive-explosive volcanic phase in the Early Miocene (~100,000 km3), associated with distributed extension and opening of numerous grabens. Rhyolitic dome fields were emplaced along graben edges and at intersections of cross-graben and graben-parallel structures during early stages of graben development. Concomitant with this change in rhyolite eruption style was a change in crustal source as revealed by zircon chronochemistry with rapid rates of rhyolite magma generation due to remelting of mid- to upper crustal, highly differentiated igneous rocks emplaced during earlier SMO magmatism. Extension became more focused ~18 Ma resulting in volcanic activity being localised along the site of GoC opening. This localised volcanism (known as the Comondú “arc”) was dominantly effusive and andesite-dacite in composition. This compositional change resulted from increased mixing of basaltic and rhyolitic magmas rather than fluid flux melting of the mantle wedge above the subducting Guadalupe Plate. A poor understanding of space-time relationships of volcanism and extension has thus led to incorrect past tectonic interpretations of Comondú-age volcanism.

Growth defect in Grg5 null mice is associated with reduced Ihh signaling in growth plates

Gene-targeted disruption of Grg5, a mouse homologue of Drosophila groucho (gro), results in postnatal growth retardation in mice. The growth defect, most striking in approximately half of the Grg5 null mice, occurs during the first 4-5 weeks of age, but most mice recover retarded growth later. We used the nonlinear mixed-effects model to fit the growth data of wild-type, heterozygous, and Grg5 null mice. On the basis of preliminary evidence suggesting an interaction between Grg5 and the transcription factor Cbfa1/Runx2, critical for skeletal development, we further investigated the skeleton in the mice. A long bone growth plate defect was identified, which included shorter zones of proliferative and hypertrophic chondrocytes and decreased trabecular bone formation. This decreased trabecular bone formation is likely caused by a reduced recruitment of osteoblasts into the growth plate region of Grg5 null mice. Like the growth defect, the growth plate and trabecular bone abnormality improved as the mice grew older. The growth plate defect was associated with reduced Indian hedgehog expression and signaling. We suggest that Grg5, a transcriptional coregulator, modulates the activities of transcription factors, such as Cbfa1/Runx2 in vivo to affect Ihh expression and the function of long bone growth plates.